2017-2018 Free Agent Discussion thread

DanTown · Oct 20, 2017

beckdawg said:
He may be unsustainable but he's still at 9.03 k/9 and 2.54 bb/9 for his career. He's been a good reliever more than just this year.

The problem is years and cost and I don’t think he holds up until he’s 40. One year or one+ is fine but any sort of guarantee for 2019 is a lot to ask for an eighth inning guy. He could easily regress back to a high 3s FIP guy. And the main issue I see with him is opportunity cost.

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

JP Hochbaum said:
The Cubs have also made it clear that they won't be trading pieces off the major league roster. They have been very transparent and honest about that.

Where did you see this? I literally saw the opposite on Theo's talk today.

Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Theo spoke of probability of trading off major league roster to acquire pitching, all coaches back if Maddon wants them back, ...

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

DanTown said:
The problem is years and cost and I don’t think he holds up until he’s 40. One year or one+ is fine but any sort of guarantee for 2019 is a lot to ask for an eighth inning guy. He could easily regress back to a high 3s FIP guy. And the main issue I see with him is opportunity cost.

I don't think I'd go 3 years but 1 year with a second year option seems fair given his age. More pressing matter to me would be money. If you get him at say $8 mil that's probably pretty fair in my eyes. I wouldn't go above $10 mil.

JP Hochbaum · Oct 20, 2017

beckdawg said:
Where did you see this? I literally saw the opposite on Theo's talk today.

Not sure what Mark Gonzalez is quoting but I have listened to it twice now and he said he doesn't take away any possibilities. History shows that unless they are rebuilding, they don't trade away established MLB players with upside.

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

JP Hochbaum said:
Not sure what Mark Gonzalez is quoting but I have listened to it twice now and he said he doesn't take away any possibilities. History shows that unless they are rebuilding, they don't trade away established MLB players with upside.

Well you appear to have taken it far different than people in the room.

Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub
Theo says team entering period where FO will be open to trading from big-league depth

JP Hochbaum · Oct 20, 2017

I didn't say they would not be open to trading it, just that their history doesn't show that they do. Staying open to it is smart and what every GM should say.

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

JP Hochbaum said:
I didn't say they would not be open to trading it, just that their history doesn't show that they do. Staying open to it is smart and what every GM should say.

I suppose it's a question of perception. I hear that sort of comment from Theo and think there's a good chance he will pursue available players with guys off the MLB roster. Theo's always been a straight shooter. So the fact he brings that up to me is pretty telling. In the past he would have said something like "we like the guys we have" or something along those lines. In the past, he's mentioned things like wanting to get better defensively in the OF prior to signing Heyward.

My guess here is that if he's mentioning something like this the odds of them finding starting pitching in FA are less likely. Typically they haven't been big spenders there. And it sounds like they intend to keep Monty in the bullpen as I suspected they might which means they don't just need 1 starter they need 2. I'd imagine they almost certainly will give some of their depth(Butler/Tseng/Williams/Mills) a shot at the #5 but I also know Theo likes to roll the dices on cheap vet options there too. Think for the #5 you look for them to sign someone similar to what they did with Anderson and either he wins the job or the young guys beat him out.

As for the 4th starter, it sounds like in an ideal world they would bring back Arrieta but that could get complicated. And if they do bring back Arrieta maybe then they wouldn't be so eager to make trades though I would caution that the bullpen still needs work and if Davis goes away trading a big league piece for a closer is another option.

CSF77 · Oct 20, 2017

beckdawg said:
I suppose it's a question of perception. I hear that sort of comment from Theo and think there's a good chance he will pursue available players with guys off the MLB roster. Theo's always been a straight shooter. So the fact he brings that up to me is pretty telling. In the past he would have said something like "we like the guys we have" or something along those lines. In the past, he's mentioned things like wanting to get better defensively in the OF prior to signing Heyward.

My guess here is that if he's mentioning something like this the odds of them finding starting pitching in FA are less likely. Typically they haven't been big spenders there. And it sounds like they intend to keep Monty in the bullpen as I suspected they might which means they don't just need 1 starter they need 2. I'd imagine they almost certainly will give some of their depth(Butler/Tseng/Williams/Mills) a shot at the #5 but I also know Theo likes to roll the dices on cheap vet options there too. Think for the #5 you look for them to sign someone similar to what they did with Anderson and either he wins the job or the young guys beat him out.

As for the 4th starter, it sounds like in an ideal world they would bring back Arrieta but that could get complicated. And if they do bring back Arrieta maybe then they wouldn't be so eager to make trades though I would caution that the bullpen still needs work and if Davis goes away trading a big league piece for a closer is another option.

Theo said that he wants to resign and Davis but Want doesn't mean having. Basically they are not going to bust the bank on them.

This is the quote which could fortell who they retain:

What he'd like to see are "consistent tough at-bats, team at-bats, grinding at-bats where we perform well with situational hitting, where we perform well with runners in scoring position, where we have a dependable, consistent two-strike approach, where we're no fun to pitch against," Epstein said.

Just really tells me they are aiming for guys that grind out AB's vs are not. Just again makes me think that Baez and Almora as destined for trade.

Omeletpants · Oct 20, 2017

CSF77 said:
Theo said that he wants to resign and Davis but Want doesn't mean having. Basically they are not going to bust the bank on them.

This is the quote which could fortell who they retain:

Just really tells me they are aiming for guys that grind out AB's vs are not. Just again makes me think that Baez and Almora as destined for trade.

Theo press conference today says otherwise. Almora to play bigger role next year

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/10/20/theo-epstein-cubs-eyeing-trade-market-offseason/

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

CSF77 said:
Just again makes me think that Baez and Almora as destined for trade.

Not how I'd take that comment with reference to Almora. Think he'd be more in the the grind it out at bat tier rather than the opposite. I mean granted he doesn't work a lot of walks but there's two schools of thought there. You have the high walk rate guys but you also have low strike out guys which is what Almora is. And Almora Jay and Contreras were literally the only ones hitting this post season.

chibears55 · Oct 21, 2017

beckdawg said:
I like Cain but i see no way of making it work. He's going to cost probably $20 mil/year and you already have a full outfield. You'd have to move players for pitching and that's easier said than done.

Epstein says they have Depth on Major League roster and it a possibilty that they would use some of that depth to get players they need...

So, hearing that ... it wouldnt surprise me to see a couple of those guys traded ..
I still feel Schwarber going to be moved ..

He might be a great guy and loved and all but he probably the best piece they have to bring in a TOR type SP they want...

Epstein says he looks for 3 things in a hitter..

Defense Power OnBase

Schwarber right now ..

Defense- Average to below

Power- very good

OnBase- .315 career OBP not that good

Right now he hits on 1 of 3

Epstein may have a man crush on him but for the greater good of the team, he probably going to use him to get the SP he wants...

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chibears55 · Oct 21, 2017

JP Hochbaum said:
The Cubs have also made it clear that they won't be trading pieces off the major league roster. They have been very transparent and honest about that.

You must of not heard Epstein recently..

He said they have lots of depth now and they may have to use that depth to get other players they need...

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chibears55 · Oct 21, 2017

http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cu...-theo-epstein-weighs-trading-hitters-pitching

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beckdawg · Oct 21, 2017

chibears55 said:
Epstein says they have Depth on Major League roster and it a possibilty that they would use some of that depth to get players they need...

So, hearing that ... it wouldnt surprise me to see a couple of those guys traded ..
I still feel Schwarber going to be moved ..

He might be a great guy and loved and all but he probably the best piece they have to bring in a TOR type SP they want...

Epstein says he looks for 3 things in a hitter..

Defense Power OnBase

Schwarber right now ..

Defense- Average to below

Power- very good

OnBase- .315 career OBP not that good

Right now he hits on 1 of 3

Epstein may have a man crush on him but for the greater good of the team, he probably going to use him to get the SP he wants...

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If we're simply going on Theo's comments I'd say Baez is in more trouble. He almost certainly is the worst cubs hitter at grinding out at bats. There's other reasons to like Baez but that isn't something he does. Schwarber actually works a lot of walks. His OBP isn't really a good metric to use because his issue there is the batting average portion. For example he has a 12.6% career walk rate. Rizzo is at 11.3%. Bryant is at 12.3%. Schwarber needs to get better at putting balls in play for sure but the working pitchers aspect is there.

chibears55 · Oct 21, 2017

beckdawg said:
If we're simply going on Theo's comments I'd say Baez is in more trouble. He almost certainly is the worst cubs hitter at grinding out at bats. There's other reasons to like Baez but that isn't something he does. Schwarber actually works a lot of walks. His OBP isn't really a good metric to use because his issue there is the batting average portion. For example he has a 12.6% career walk rate. Rizzo is at 11.3%. Bryant is at 12.3%. Schwarber needs to get better at putting balls in play for sure but the working pitchers aspect is there.

For me..

I actually think both could be moved

Only regulars i feel are 100% safe in returning are..
Contreras Rizzo Russell Bryant

Almora and Happ are 99.9% safe
Probably depends on what the return for them is

Heyward ill go with 99% because of his contract, but you never know...

Schwarber and Baez are their best major league trade pieces..

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beckdawg · Oct 21, 2017

chibears55 said:
For me..

I actually think both could be moved

Only regulars i feel are 100% safe in returning are..
Contreras Rizzo Russell Bryant

Almora and Happ are 99.9% safe
Probably depends on what the return for them is

Heyward ill go with 99% because of his contract, but you never know...

Schwarber and Baez are their best major league trade pieces..

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I mean Theo compared Schwarber to Rizzo yesterday. I honestly don't see them moving him.

chibears55 · Oct 21, 2017

beckdawg said:
I mean Theo compared Schwarber to Rizzo yesterday. I honestly don't see them moving him.

Ok...
Ive seen GM say lots of good things about players they eventually traded, released, or not resign..

Im just saying IMO..
If their looking to trade for a TOR starter, Schwarber their best piece to an AL team, with Baez right behind him .

I just think Baez defense, his improvement with bat, and flexibility to play all 4 IF position probably keeps him around another year

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beckdawg · Oct 21, 2017

chibears55 said:
Ok...
Ive seen GM say lots of good things about players they eventually traded, released, or not resign..

Im just saying IMO..
If their looking to trade for a TOR starter, Schwarber their best piece to an AL team, with Baez right behind him .

I just think Baez defense, his improvement with bat, and flexibility to play all 4 IF position probably keeps him around another year

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I get if people don't want to trade Baez first. All I'm saying is going off the comments Theo has made I'd be inclined to believe Schwarber isn't going anywhere. Like the context of this all is that Theo said he wanted players who grind out at bats. Rizzo far and away is the best cub at that. So, the fact in the same presser he is comparing Schwarber to Rizzo to me suggests a lot about where his head is.

chibears55 · Oct 21, 2017

beckdawg said:
I get if people don't want to trade Baez first. All I'm saying is going off the comments Theo has made I'd be inclined to believe Schwarber isn't going anywhere. Like the context of this all is that Theo said he wanted players who grind out at bats. Rizzo far and away is the best cub at that. So, the fact in the same presser he is comparing Schwarber to Rizzo to me suggests a lot about where his head is.

I get that and im not disagreeing with you on how he feels about him..

My thing is..

I just feel if Epstein looking to trade for a TOR type pitcher like Archer or comparable, Schwarber is most likely the guy they will want in return..

If he not willing to trade Schwarber then he probably not getting an under 30 TOR type starter unless he packaging a majority of his depth players....

Just my opinion

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beckdawg · Oct 21, 2017

chibears55 said:
I just feel if Epstein looking to trade for a TOR type pitcher like Archer or comparable, Schwarber is most likely the guy they will want in return..

Mentioned this else where but I think teams will want Baez more because it's easier to find bats to plug into LF. That being said if it's make or break a trade on a guy they want I'm sure they would consider moving Schwarber as well.

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