Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

beckdawg · Nov 15, 2017

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017...-punishment-for-international-violations.html

Previous reports have suggested that top 2016-17 signing Kevin Maitan, who received a $4.25MM signing bonus, could be among any potential losses, though it’s not yet clear which prospect(s) Atlanta stands to lose. There could be further penalties yet, however, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted earlier this morning that it seems likely that the Braves will be banned from signing any international amateurs for at least one signing period. (O’Brien also noted that there’s a “good chance” the Braves will lose some prospects as punishment.)

^is super interesting story to watch. Kevin Maitan is probably a top 25 prospect once reranking happens. Atlanta also has Ronald Acuna who was signed 3 years ago as an IFA who's a top 5 prospect.

beckdawg · Nov 16, 2017

beckdawg said:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017...-punishment-for-international-violations.html

^is super interesting story to watch. Kevin Maitan is probably a top 25 prospect once reranking happens. Atlanta also has Ronald Acuna who was signed 3 years ago as an IFA who's a top 5 prospect.

By the way, this also likely has an impact on Ohtani. If/when MLB makes altanta's prospects free agents they then are still subject to IFA pools. If Maitan suddenly becomes a free agent any team that has ~$3 mil is going to be looking at signing him. What will be even more crazy is he may decide to wait given where the majority of mlb teams are money wise. If he waits until July then the cubs are out of the IFA penalty box and having the shot to sign someone who's easily considered a top 30 prospect in baseball is obviously going to appeal to the cubs and basically every MLB team not under IFA restrictions.

Also, apparently the Braves aren't the only team that has broke the rules. The gist of what happen from my understanding is they basically have gone and made verbal agreements with guys as young as 14 to sign players. You're not supposed to be able to talk to players until they turn 16 and are declared FA. But apparently it was an unspoken thing where a lot of teams just ignored that rule. That's why if you look at any of the coverage of this stuff you'll often here there's pretty clear signs one team will sign specific guys.

Needless to say this could get pretty nuts right when the cubs are able to be players again. And I sort of doubt the cubs get caught up in any of this because since 2013 they haven't really been tied to the tippy top IFA's where this stuff apparently is going down.

Parade_Rain · Nov 16, 2017

TL1961 said:
Not sure how robbing a HR has anything to do with "generational bats", but I would love to see stats on how many HR's every OF "robbed" last season.

My guess is that Harper is not 3 ahead of Schwarber in that category. Not more than ONE, actually.

That's not to say I don't think Harper is a better player - I know how comments are totally misrepresented, so I figure I better put that out there.

You're being too literal regarding the robbing of HR. Harper is a complete player. I will need a lot more convincing to consider Schwarber as something other than an AL DH. The Cardinals had Holliday in LF for years. Schwarber is going to need to drastically cut down his K% to come close to Holliday.

TC in Mississippi · Nov 16, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
You're being too literal regarding the robbing of HR. Harper is a complete player. I will need a lot more convincing to consider Schwarber as something other than an AL DH. The Cardinals had Holliday in LF for years. Schwarber is going to need to drastically cut down his K% to come close to Holliday.

I think Joey Gallo and his 2.9 WAR and 123 wRC+ despite an almost 38% K rate have proven once and for all that K's don't matter in terms of production. That said I'd like to see Kyle get down to 25%-26% K rate consistently, that would be fine.

Parade_Rain · Nov 16, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
I think Joey Gallo and his 2.9 WAR and 123 wRC+ despite an almost 38% K rate have proven once and for all that K's don't matter in terms of production. That said I'd like to see Kyle get down to 25%-26% K rate consistently, that would be fine.

K's matter. Perhaps you didn't watch the Cubs/Dodgers NLCS.

anotheridiot · Nov 16, 2017

CSF77 said:
In regards to Schwarber: a team has to want him to trade him. That is why you wait until the iron is hot to deal. If he is a bust then all you lost is a first round pick.

And honestly the list is long for failed first round picks. At least he made it vs Vitters/Jackson etc. or traded away: Josh Donaldson (still bugs me)

Honestly if he is a bust in a line of Almora/Bryant/Schwarber/Happ then I think we are doing pretty good.

Even though I believe he will shut fans up next year. 30 HR’s in a piss poor season is kinda scarry if he hits .270 next year.

I am not sure they dont want to trade him, I think they are far too concerned about making sure they have a no doubt win coming back. Sure most people hated Soler, but when Davis was the return it was simple for the fans that admired that arm and those 120 mph balls off the bat. Schwarber goes to the AL where he hits 45 bombs a year and you get a 5th starter .500 pitcher in return then there is a problem. That is all they are worried about and they know, waiting another year will just make it closer to reality of what happened with the castro trade.

brett05 · Nov 16, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
I think Joey Gallo and his 2.9 WAR and 123 wRC+ despite an almost 38% K rate have proven once and for all that K's don't matter in terms of production. That said I'd like to see Kyle get down to 25%-26% K rate consistently, that would be fine.

The exception does not prove the rule.

I couldn't find it but IIRC it was posted here by DewsSox a few years back that showed the value of outcomes. K's are not advantageous in most instances.

TC in Mississippi · Nov 16, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
K's matter. Perhaps you didn't watch the Cubs/Dodgers NLCS.

I think they matter in a short series but plate discipline matters more. If Schwarber had walked more in that series, which he is capable of, the K's wouldn't matter as much.

Parade_Rain · Nov 16, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
I think they matter in a short series but plate discipline matters more. If Schwarber had walked more in that series, which he is capable of, the K's wouldn't matter as much.

The K's matter. As a team, the Cubs lineup has too much swing and miss. Even the Cubs management recognizes this.

DanTown · Nov 16, 2017

brett05 said:
The exception does not prove the rule.

I couldn't find it but IIRC it was posted here by DewsSox a few years back that showed the value of outcomes. K's are not advantageous in most instances.

Ks are obviously bad but how you make an out is not as important as how many outs you make.

I’d als

brett05 · Nov 16, 2017

DanTown said:
Ks are obviously bad but how you make an out is not as important as how many outs you make.

I’d als

Eventually you're going to make 24/27 outs. That's true for every non-extra inning game. So it's how those outs that are made is important. Run Expectancy is higher for some outs than others.

TC in Mississippi · Nov 16, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
The K's matter. As a team, the Cubs lineup has too much swing and miss. Even the Cubs management recognizes this.

That I don't disagree with, but if your power guys have high K rates and you have contact guys you'll be OK. The problem isn't that we have high K guys the problem is the lack of contact.

DanTown · Nov 16, 2017

brett05 said:
Eventually you're going to make 24/27 outs. That's true for every non-extra inning game. So it's how those outs that are made is important. Run Expectancy is higher for some outs than others.

Run expectancy does not vary based on outs. An out is an established outcome that happens after you risked a players potnential outcomes (I.e walk, home runs, etc).

But you can’t measure just outs. Aaron Judge struck out 30% of his at bats and he was a 8 win player.

In Gallo’s case, he has a slightly above league average OBP while being an elite (top 25) slugger and having surprising value as a base runner. Put it all together and he has value but not crazy value. He was the 80th most valuable player. I’d say that’s right.

The point of Schwarber or any high K guy is what they do when they don’t strike out. Strike outs alone cannot tell you the value of a player. It’s just one piece that needs to be evaluated against the rest of the players abilities.

brett05 · Nov 16, 2017

DanTown said:
Run expectancy does not vary based on outs. An out is an established outcome that happens after you risked a players potnential outcomes (I.e walk, home runs, etc).

But you can’t measure just outs. Aaron Judge struck out 30% of his at bats and he was a 8 win player.

In Gallo’s case, he has a slightly above league average OBP while being an elite (top 25) slugger and having surprising value as a base runner. Put it all together and he has value but not crazy value. He was the 80th most valuable player. I’d say that’s right.

The point of Schwarber or any high K guy is what they do when they don’t strike out. Strike outs alone cannot tell you the value of a player. It’s just one piece that needs to be evaluated against the rest of the players abilities.

Not disagreeing with that, just saying k's are bad and a player/team that k's alot has very big issues. The Reggie Jackson's of the world are rare.

Omeletpants · Nov 16, 2017

DanTown said:
The point of Schwarber or any high K guy is what they do when they don’t strike out.

For Schwarber, it's trying to pull off the plate pitches and grounding out to second baseman

DanTown · Nov 16, 2017

In "not great for Otani" news, the Mariners traded some AAA closer to the White Sox for more international signing bonus pool money.

anotheridiot · Nov 16, 2017

Omeletpants said:
For Schwarber, it's trying to pull off the plate pitches and grounding out to second baseman

Just one name on the list of names, including Rizzo, Zobrist, Heyward, that ground out to short right field.

Its either OK for all of them or its not OK for all of them, it cannot be OK for some of them.

Parade_Rain · Nov 16, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
That I don't disagree with, but if your power guys have high K rates and you have contact guys you'll be OK. The problem isn't that we have high K guys the problem is the lack of contact.

That means you need less high K guys and more contact guys. That's another reason Schwarber is possibly part of a trade this off-season.

TC in Mississippi · Nov 16, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
That means you need less high K guys and more contact guys. That's another reason Schwarber is possibly part of a trade this off-season.

Again I don't disagree. I think I've had three or four favorite Cubs players in my lifetime (I usually am more a team guy than I am a fan of the guys who wear the jersey) and Schwarber is one of them but if he has to be traded so be it. I think with the national view of him though Happ has more value and I'm not as bullish on his future as some of you are. If Schwarber is part of a package for a TOR I'm down though. Make no mistake.

JP Hochbaum · Nov 16, 2017

When it comes to K rates, it is also wise to consider ability to lay off pitches out of the zone. We knew Bryant would improve because he had a high walk rate and improved each year in k rates and reducing his swinging outside of the zone.

Players we know who likely won't improve in this area is a guy like Javy Baez.

When it comes to Schwarber he can improve the way Bryant has and reduce his K rate to below 20%. If and when that happens the Cubs would regret not having him.

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