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  1. #45
    Senior Member chibears55's Avatar
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    http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/1...ome-to-a-deal/

    Sounds like Cubs are his first choice..

    Just have to agree on years and money to make it happen...

    I said theyll sign cobb and trade for a TOR type starter..

    Im close to looking half right so far...

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  3. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/1...ome-to-a-deal/

    Sounds like Cubs are his first choice..

    Just have to agree on years and money to make it happen...

    I said theyll sign cobb and trade for a TOR type starter..

    Im close to looking half right so far...

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    He'd have to come pretty cheap for me to be happy with them signing him. His ERA looks nice and all but his FIP is far more telling. He had a 4.16 FIP. I'm sure the cubs will check in on him but I think he'd have to be in the $8-10 mil with a max 3 year deal for me to be interested and I'm pretty sure he gets 4 years and more money than that. I mean for example compare him and Chacin. Chacin had a 3.89/4.26 ERA/FIP which is effectively pretty similar. Most are predicting his in the 2/$16 or 2/$20 mil range. I don't see enough difference between the two to warrant 2 more years and likely $5-7 mil/year more.

    Oh and he also costs a 2nd round pick and $500k in IFA money when the cubs can finally spend their IFA money next year. I just am not that thrilled by the idea personally.

  4. #47
    Senior Member chibears55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beckdawg View Post
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    He'd have to come pretty cheap for me to be happy with them signing him. His ERA looks nice and all but his FIP is far more telling. He had a 4.16 FIP. I'm sure the cubs will check in on him but I think he'd have to be in the $8-10 mil with a max 3 year deal for me to be interested and I'm pretty sure he gets 4 years and more money than that. I mean for example compare him and Chacin. Chacin had a 3.89/4.26 ERA/FIP which is effectively pretty similar. Most are predicting his in the 2/$16 or 2/$20 mil range. I don't see enough difference between the two to warrant 2 more years and likely $5-7 mil/year more.

    Oh and he also costs a 2nd round pick and $500k in IFA money when the cubs can finally spend their IFA money next year. I just am not that thrilled by the idea personally.
    Thing is, he'll have Maddon and especially Hickey backing in Epstein ear...
    So, if what he asking for isnt crazy
    I think theyll agree to something

    I just see him as a 30 YO guy who can be a good fixture in rotation for next 4-5 yrs.. who arm is still pretty fresh because he missed all of 2015 and most of 2016.. he came back pretty good last season and with Hickey knowing him and continuing to work with him , good chance he can get even better...



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  5. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Thing is, he'll have Maddon and especially Hickey backing in Epstein ear...
    So, if what he asking for isnt crazy
    I think theyll agree to something

    I just see him as a 30 YO guy who can be a good fixture in rotation for next 4-5 yrs.. who arm is still pretty fresh because he missed all of 2015 and most of 2016.. he came back pretty good last season and with Hickey knowing him and continuing to work with him , good chance he can get even better...



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    I mean i don't think what he was in 2017 really says "good fixture." Like I said I see the ERA but you know as well as I do that ERA doesn't always tell a full story. He had a 6.42 K/9 and a 14.9%/48.2%/36.9% soft/med/hard contact rates. League average in 2017 for k/9 was 8.34. League average contact rates were 18.9%/49.3%/31.8%. So, in both cases he was a worse than league average pitcher. Among pitchers who threw 170+ IP he had the 5th worst k rate. Among that same group he had the 4th worst hard hit rate and the 2nd worst weak contact rate.

    So I'm sure he'd love for a team to give him 4 years or w/e but I wouldn't do it. For even money I'd take Chacin because of the pick/ifa penalty.

  6. #49
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    He was saying 5 but winning > money.

    5/72 is most likely his price tag.

  7. #50
    Senior Member chibears55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beckdawg View Post
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    I mean i don't think what he was in 2017 really says "good fixture." Like I said I see the ERA but you know as well as I do that ERA doesn't always tell a full story. He had a 6.42 K/9 and a 14.9%/48.2%/36.9% soft/med/hard contact rates. League average in 2017 for k/9 was 8.34. League average contact rates were 18.9%/49.3%/31.8%. So, in both cases he was a worse than league average pitcher. Among pitchers who threw 170+ IP he had the 5th worst k rate. Among that same group he had the 4th worst hard hit rate and the 2nd worst weak contact rate.

    So I'm sure he'd love for a team to give him 4 years or w/e but I wouldn't do it. For even money I'd take Chacin because of the pick/ifa penalty.
    You're going off of last year stats, where he just pitched his first full season coming back from injury...

    His career numbers are much better...

    7.3 SO/9... Previous 2 yrs before injury he was 8.4 and 8.1 SO/9...

    Without looking, I'm sure those contact numbers would be better..

    I just think he'll be more of what he was before last season or better, because last season he was just working out the kinks and finding his stuff again...

    He did improve in 2nd half and his K/9 rate was much better..

    5.9 in first half
    7.3 in second half

    9.4 in August
    8.6 in September

    As far as pick and money...
    They'll get 1 or 2 picks back depending on resigning Davis..

    Don't know what makes Chacin better than Cobb besides the pick...
    He a 7.1 K/9 career
    Cobb 7.3 K/9 career


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  8. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    You're going off of last year stats, where he just pitched his first full season coming back from injury... His career numbers are much better...

    7.3 SO/9... Previous 2 yrs before injury he was 8.4 and 8.1 SO/9... Without looking, I'm sure those contact numbers would be better..
    I've read he's just not throwing as hard any more. I'd have to look up the numbers but either way 7.3 k/9 isn't particularly good. Its still below average. His career hard contact rate is basically league average.
    Don't know what makes Chacin better than Cobb besides the pick...
    He a 7.1 K/9 career
    Cobb 7.3 K/9 career
    The point is Chacin is largely assumed to significantly cheaper. I really see very little upside in either(that is to say both are league average-ish pitchers) but the difference is one likely costs $8-10 mil/year without a 2nd round pick and $500k in IFA money and the other cost likely $15 mil/year and does cost pick/money. I'm not even trying to say Chacin is amazing. But he has a 3.93 career ERA and spent 6 of his 9 seasons pitching in coors.

    And more to the point, if all you want is someone who has a career 7.3 k/9 average with a half decent walk rate and a 4-ish FIP you likely can get that out of Tseng. For example, last year in AA/AAA he had a 7.6 k/9 and a 2.4 bb/9 which largely mirrors Cobb's career 7.33/2.62 rates. And don't get me wrong, I'm not sure I'd just hand the #5 slot to Tseng. The entire reason I'd consider someone like Chacin is to provide you depth. But the difference you're likely talking about between him and Cobb is best case Chacin is likely getting 2 years and may not even get more than a 1 year prove it deal. Cobb is talking about 5 years and probably gets 4 at a much higher rate.

    I'd honestly rather see them re-sign Lackey to a 1 year deal than to sign cobb.

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  10. #52
    Senior Member chibears55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beckdawg View Post
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    I've read he's just not throwing as hard any more. I'd have to look up the numbers but either way 7.3 k/9 isn't particularly good. Its still below average. His career hard contact rate is basically league average.


    The point is Chacin is largely assumed to significantly cheaper. I really see very little upside in either(that is to say both are league average-ish pitchers) but the difference is one likely costs $8-10 mil/year without a 2nd round pick and $500k in IFA money and the other cost likely $15 mil/year and does cost pick/money. I'm not even trying to say Chacin is amazing. But he has a 3.93 career ERA and spent 6 of his 9 seasons pitching in coors.

    And more to the point, if all you want is someone who has a career 7.3 k/9 average with a half decent walk rate and a 4-ish FIP you likely can get that out of Tseng. For example, last year in AA/AAA he had a 7.6 k/9 and a 2.4 bb/9 which largely mirrors Cobb's career 7.33/2.62 rates. And don't get me wrong, I'm not sure I'd just hand the #5 slot to Tseng. The entire reason I'd consider someone like Chacin is to provide you depth. But the difference you're likely talking about between him and Cobb is best case Chacin is likely getting 2 years and may not even get more than a 1 year prove it deal. Cobb is talking about 5 years and probably gets 4 at a much higher rate.

    I'd honestly rather see them re-sign Lackey to a 1 year deal than to sign cobb.
    I only brought up K rate cause you did..

    I obviously see Cobb being a lot better pitcher then you..

    So..

    I see him being more of a guy who can help them win now and be a fixture in rotation for next 4 to 5 yrs and be very productive to where he can be at least a 3 in rotation...
    I guess we'll see


    Im not big on MLB draft picks, unless their first rounders..
    Most those guys take 4+ plus years before they get on the MLB map..

    Their important and all to build up your system, but if were talking about 1 pick that not a 1st rounder..
    I personally don't think it that big a deal


    We can agree to disagree here on Cobb

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  11. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    I only brought up K rate cause you did..

    I obviously see Cobb being a lot better pitcher then you..

    So..

    I see him being more of a guy who can help them win now and be a fixture in rotation for next 4 to 5 yrs and be very productive to where he can be at least a 3 in rotation...
    I guess we'll see


    Im not big on MLB draft picks, unless their first rounders..
    Most those guys take 4+ plus years before they get on the MLB map..

    Their important and all to build up your system, but if were talking about 1 pick that not a 1st rounder..
    I personally don't think it that big a deal


    We can agree to disagree here on Cobb

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    Couple of things... first on the draft pick it's not just about the pick. It's about the slot money that comes with the pick. That allows you to get more creative with how you draft. often times you'll sign a guy who's a 1st round talent in the 4th-5th round.

    As for Cobb being a mainstay, if you're belief is he is what he was before the injury I think that's a mistake. Before he got injured he threw 3 pitches in a fastball curve and a change up. The gist was depending on the year the fastball and curve were between slightly below average to slightly above average. His change up was his true out pitch. To put this into context, w(pitch type)/C is a measure of runs above average per 100 pitches. The highest value he ever had on his fastball was 0.49. Generally he was more in the -0.5 range. On his curve the highest value he ever had was 0.52(pre-injury that is) but generally was in the -0.2-0.2 range or roughly average. The years before he got hurt his change up was 1.42, 1.70, 1.31, and 2.23 the final year before getting hurt. The last two seasons his change up has been -0.24 and -1.25.

    So when you talk about why he's not striking guys out it's not just because he's coming back from injury. He's basically a 2 pitch pitcher now. That also explains why he gets hit so hard. If you want to believe the change up comes back fine but it's entirely likely he wont get it back as well. I don't know the specifics of his particular version of the change up but if it no longer dives as much or whatever it makes him an entirely different pitcher. And the thing is Hickey basically acknowledged this.

    What he did with basically two pitches in the American League East last year was remarkable, incredible really. Itís such a testament to his competitiveness that he basically did it with a fastball and a curveball. He did use the changeup on occasion, but it was not very effective at all, and what he did, like I said earlier, was remarkable.
    Now it's one thing if you're throwing Mariano Rivera's cutter and it's that amazing of a pitch. But Cobb's FB/CU combo has never been dominating. Even last year when Hickey is quoting it as "remarkable," the value of his fastball was 0.48 and the value on his curve was 0.62. I just don't see that being worth a 3-4 year deal. Like if someone gives him a 2 year deal or whatever fine though 2 year deals are rarely for more than $15 mil and the QO I believe is like $18 mil so presumably he would accept it if he were only going to get ~$20 mil over 2 years.

    I brought up Chacin. Do you know why? The top 5 sliders by value last year were Scherzer(3.33), Chacin(2.19), Carlos Carrasco(2.12), Kershaw(1.97) and Dylan Bundy(1.94). It's a wipe out pitch by any definition. And it's not like he rarely used it. Roughly 1/3 of his pitches were sliders. About 5% were curves 5% were change ups and the other 55% or so were fastballs. His curve was above average(0.35). His change up was garbage last year(-2.04) though on his career it's much better at -0.27. His fastball(believe mostly 2 seam/sinker) is slightly below average at -0.43 though given sinkers tend to be pitch to contact that's not all that surprising.

    I'm not saying with a little tinkering that Chacin is going to be Scherzer/Kershaw. Both of them have at least 2 out pitches(kershaw has 3). But I do think if they were to work on his sequencing a little more his fastball might play up and he could easily be a mid 3 ERA or better type. And worst case if you say Tseng or someone else beats him out for a job I think at the very least he could potentially end up being an impact reliever with that slider of his.

    With Cobb my issue basically comes down to this. You're buying him based on last year where he had 2 pitches neither of which was particularly dominant. And based on the rumors you're not just buying him for 1-2 years. You're buying him for 3-4. What happens on days when his curve just isn't working? If he doesn't have a change up that can get him through those days he's going to get brutally lit up. And the nightmare is that 2017 was best case. In 2016 he had 5 starts and a 8.59 ERA. What happens if 2017 was a mirage and you give him 4 years? On the flip side, let's say his change up does come back and you get best case. You're still talking about a 3.43 FIP for the years prior to him being hurt which is basically what you're paying him as. The obvious difference is that you're paying him based on what he was before getting hurt not paying him on what he was this year.

    That in essence is my problem. You're gambling and leaving yourself few outs. And I'm not even saying you should never gamble on players. But the biggest problem I have is that he probably gets 4 years. That's a giant fucking gamble on someone who could very easily have his numbers totally tank if he were either just lucky with BABIP or if people start identifying he really only has the 2 pitches. And then when you tack on the fact you're giving up draft pick(mostly the slot money i care about) and the IFA money(care about this a lot more given the cubs need young talent and finally can spend in a class with a 21 year old cuban CF who looks REALLY interesting and a 15 year old cuban pitcher who throws 95). I just struggle to get behind the idea of signing him.

    And I get that Hickey has spoken well of him but what is he going to do, talk shit about him? If Hickey is as good as reported I want to see what changes he can make in a guy who has dominating stuff. Like if he got that out of Cobb what could he get out of someone with a true wipe out pitch? Think with cobb there's just not much left to milk out of him and what appeared to be there in 2017 may just be an illusion. He's just too risky for me to consider investing 3-4 years in.

  12. #54
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    I would still pick Cobb. He would be your 4 today if he signed and he is that. It would push him into the 5 role if they trade for Archer.

    Now a #5 starter you really are looking at innings more than anything.

    Now on the draft pick loss. Iím not concerned as much. They are not in a rebuild phase and they need to put together a team that can get past the Dodgers. That matters now and let the system work itself out. Talent comes from every where and the focus should be in scouting it out vs trying to increase spending ability. From what Iíve seen they pretty much have sucked at finding pitching talent in general. Hitting talent they have produced but have had little success with arms. Having more resourse doesnít fix this problem.

    So in view of this if they lose 1 pick from Cobb and 1 pick from Minor they added 2 proven arms. What they lost is lottery tickets. And honestly their odds have been off after the 1st round.

  13. #55
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    If it went through that way I would convert Tseng to MR. He might excel with his wide arsonal in 2 inning stints. That way the hitters only see him 1 time though the line up and donít get a gauge on him a 2nd time. Solid piggyback type.

  14. #56
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    How does Alex Cobb help you win a WS? If he is your #4, you probably don't have enough SP depth + quality to adequately compete for a world series. If he is your five, why spend all that money to get a guy to eat innings and tie yourself in to a contract with such little upside?

    There are two common misses in FA: overpaying for guys you think are elite but end up not be (i.e what happened with Heyward) or you buy the middle. There isn't a ton of upside with Cobb: maybe pre TJ there was something there but he simply hasn't been a difference maker in his return.

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    Where is this wealth for free agent Talent?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DanTown View Post
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    How does Alex Cobb help you win a WS? If he is your #4, you probably don't have enough SP depth + quality to adequately compete for a world series. If he is your five, why spend all that money to get a guy to eat innings and tie yourself in to a contract with such little upside?

    There are two common misses in FA: overpaying for guys you think are elite but end up not be (i.e what happened with Heyward) or you buy the middle. There isn't a ton of upside with Cobb: maybe pre TJ there was something there but he simply hasn't been a difference maker in his return.
    Largely agree here. To me Cobb looks like a worse version of Edwin Jackson. Jackson's numbers always looked better but he really never had enough upside to warrant a 4 year deal. And when shit went bad it went really bad.

  18. #59
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Yu is the only upg. If you go after him then why not go after Jake. Jake can win when it matters at least.

    So the talent is lacking.

    That leaves Pineta. (sp). DL case and may not be a factor...

    I really donít see this vast amount of options going on here

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Yu is the only upg. If you go after him then why not go after Jake. Jake can win when it matters at least.

    So the talent is lacking.

    That leaves Pineta. (sp). DL case and may not be a factor...

    I really don’t see this vast amount of options going on here
    Here's the thing. You're looking to solve 2018 not the long term picture. It's entirely plausible the "move" isn't anything. And by that I mean you could very easily either sign no one for the #5 slot and just go internal and look to address it in a much more interesting 2019 FA class. If it were me making the calls I'd probably attempt to sign Darvish for something reasonable. I doubt I'd go over 6/150. Arrieta would be an obvious back up though I wouldn't go more than 5 years on him. If neither of those two pan out I would look to deal. Actually depending on who's available I'd probably do that first. For example if the package for Archer i mentioned else where works then yeah do that.

    But if worst case happens I'm perfectly fine with them buying low on a few guys like Chacin who have upside and just trying to figure things out on the fly in 2018. It's possible you end up throwing away 2018 but if that means you're stronger financially in 2019+ and therefore more competitive then great.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Where is this wealth for free agent Talent?
    This isn't a team that is pressed to spend FA dollars (where the biggest cost of FA money is always opportunity cost) right now just to get Alex Cobb.

    Guy A last year
    K/9 - 6.89
    BB/9 - 2.89
    HR/9 - 1.09
    FIP - 4.23

    Guy B
    K/9 - 6.42
    BB/9 - 2.21
    HR/9 - 1.10
    FIP - 4.16

    One guy was Alex Cobb and the other was Clayton Richard.

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    The long term future of the Cubs rotation is likely a lot of high priced FA at the top and then a bunch of young arms at the bottom. The Cubs have a lot of arms at AA or higher that have MLB potential but not a ton of TOR potential. What that means for the franchise is to spend money on guys they legitimately think are 1s or 2s on playoff teams. They have no real need to spend a ton of long term money on innings eaters; I can think of at least eight arms in the organization that could be on the 2019 or 2020 roster and give you #5 stuff.

    Getting an ace or #2 solves the #4 problem and then helps solve the bullpen issue. For the 10-15 million Cobb would cost, I would much rather spend half on a legit bullpen guy and then the other half on two/three gambles at the 5 spot. I'd go Tyson Ross, Derek Holland, and Anibal Sanchez on one year show me deals.

    For the bullpen, I think Andrew Cashner could be the next Wade Davis/Andrew Miller and I would give him 3/30 to try it. Then I'd go after Morrow and McGee and then use a committee to get the final outs.

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    If the plan is a bridge to Tseng: Lackey at 8 mil is the main deal that makes sense.

    post ASG: 7-3 3.75 ERA. 1st half dealt with plantar fasciitis. Another year at 8 mil is about as good as it gets.

    If you do not trust Tseng as a starter then Cobb is fine as the "2nd" arm needed. Remember we are replacing a #5 not a #3 starter.

    This in:

    Rays right-hander Chris Archer may come up frequently in trade rumors this offseason, but general manager Erik Neander suggested Sunday that he plans to keep the 29-year-old. Neander told MLB Network Radio that Archer “is one of our core guys” and “exactly the type of player” the Rays need to retain if they’re going to compete in the future (Twitter link). Archer, who’s signed to one of the majors’ most team-friendly contracts, will make a combined $13.75MM over the next two seasons. After that, Archer’s employer will have a chance to control him through 2021 via ultra-affordable club options ($9MM and $11MM).
    So it looks like that well maybe dry.

    The Cubs and Tigers still haven’t finalized the trade they made in July that saw reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila head to Chicago for catcher John Hicks, righty Joe Jimenez and a player to be named later or cash. It turns out the Tigers will receive a PTBNL in lieu of cash, but the teams haven’t decided on which player yet, Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospectus tweets.
    losing another player. can't be anything on the top 30. They can have Robinson IMO.

    If they were on the rebuild mode again I would look at Chris Tillman on a 1 year flip. But with Boz gone I really do not see this direction.


    Man with the Archer announcement going into the winter meetings it is going to become depressing.

    looking at the F/A list it is Yu and Jake
    Then
    Cobb and Lynn
    you could add Chacon here also.

    Rest are honestly high risk or LH. or just old.

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    Reason why Jed may shy away from Chacin: he had the game’s third-worst walk rate and led all of baseball in hit-by-pitches. Jed has said that that is a main focus going into next season. cutting the walks and adding a league leader normally goes against this vision.

    Honestly they should go after Yu right now. With Archer off the board they have to invest.

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    Just though of this:

    What about trading for Jordan Zimmermann. We might be able to get them to eat some of that deal.

    Owed 24 mil/25 mi/25 mil. Might bounce back not sure honestly. put up a 1.1 WAR so I could see Det wanting to off load that deal for a song. Cubs give something of quality they may get a chunk eaten.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Just though of this:

    What about trading for Jordan Zimmermann. We might be able to get them to eat some of that deal.

    Owed 24 mil/25 mi/25 mil. Might bounce back not sure honestly. put up a 1.1 WAR so I could see Det wanting to off load that deal for a song. Cubs give something of quality they may get a chunk eaten.
    A guy with a career 7.10 k/9(well below league average) who the past two seasons had a k/9 of 5.64 and 5.79 and who has an absurdly bad contract even if they eat money? Hell no. The stats suggest he's just done. Not seeing anything positive there.

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