Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

CSF77 · Dec 28, 2017

Only thing I can think is a fall back plan if Yu doesn’t pan out.

1. Sign Yu. doesnt cost a draft pick. I don’t see them going over 25 per year and 6 years is a market value for him. I dont see them getting into a bidding war with Hou and others.

2. Trade for a starter. This market is also off. Teams are asking for too much value for pitching. I would think Archer =Montgomery, Happ, And Alzolay. If they try say add Russell then it is over market value.

3. Give Montgomery a shot and this move is back fill.

That is honestly what I see right now. The market is out of wack and teams/FA are taking advantage while the buyers are sweating them out to bring the prices back down to market values.

And honestly they need to because if teams over pay then it sets the bar higher for the next wave because agents are always pointing to privious signings and GM’s look at privious trades to justify their asking prices.

So in reality keeping the market honest benifits baseball. At the end of the day it all falls back onto the fan base as someone has to pay for the mess

Diehardfan · Dec 28, 2017

CSF77 said:
Only thing I can think is a fall back plan if Yu doesn’t pan out.

1. Sign Yu. doesnt cost a draft pick. I don’t see them going over 25 per year and 6 years is a market value for him. I dont see them getting into a bidding war with Hou and others.

2. Trade for a starter. This market is also off. Teams are asking for too much value for pitching. I would think Archer =Montgomery, Happ, And Alzolay. If they try say add Russell then it is over market value.

3. Give Montgomery a shot and this move is back fill.

That is honestly what I see right now. The market is out of wack and teams/FA are taking advantage while the buyers are sweating them out to bring the prices back down to market values.

And honestly they need to because if teams over pay then it sets the bar higher for the next wave because agents are always pointing to privious signings and GM’s look at privious trades to justify their asking prices.

So in reality keeping the market honest benifits baseball. At the end of the day it all falls back onto the fan base as someone has to pay for the mess

More like national and local TV & radio....which in a way is dictated by the fan base. At this point, attendance is almost like a side job for these teams....I mean if they had to rely on ticket sales to pay these salaries, bleacher seats would priced like courtside NBA seats.

CSF77 · Dec 28, 2017

Diehardfan said:
More like national and local TV & radio....which in a way is dictated by the fan base. At this point, attendance is almost like a side job for these teams....I mean if they had to rely on ticket sales to pay these salaries, bleacher seats would priced like courtside NBA seats.

Cubs avg 3.199 mil fans. What does it cost over all on avg for a fan? 1 seat. 1 hotdog plus 1 drink add A bag of peanuts. 50-80 on avg. that is 160 mil just at $50 per and that most likely on the low end of a avg fan.

I wouldn’t discount the attendance. That is the bread and butter of the business. Any ads and additional contracts is just bonus. That is why they bought out the roof top seats. That is revenue.

anotheridiot · Dec 28, 2017

CSF77 said:
Cubs avg 3.199 mil fans. What does it cost over all on avg for a fan? 1 seat. 1 hotdog plus 1 drink add A bag of peanuts. 50-80 on avg. that is 160 mil just at $50 per and that most likely on the low end of a avg fan.

I wouldn’t discount the attendance. That is the bread and butter of the business. Any ads and additional contracts is just bonus. That is why they bought out the roof top seats. That is revenue.

Don't forget the visiting team gets a cut of the gate too, now I would venture to guess the cubs draw more at visiting stadiums, but still some of those are only getting 12-15000 fans, but its still give and take for visiting clubs.

anotheridiot · Dec 28, 2017

CSF77 said:
Only thing I can think is a fall back plan if Yu doesn’t pan out.

1. Sign Yu. doesnt cost a draft pick. I don’t see them going over 25 per year and 6 years is a market value for him. I dont see them getting into a bidding war with Hou and others.

2. Trade for a starter. This market is also off. Teams are asking for too much value for pitching. I would think Archer =Montgomery, Happ, And Alzolay. If they try say add Russell then it is over market value.

3. Give Montgomery a shot and this move is back fill.

That is honestly what I see right now. The market is out of wack and teams/FA are taking advantage while the buyers are sweating them out to bring the prices back down to market values.

And honestly they need to because if teams over pay then it sets the bar higher for the next wave because agents are always pointing to privious signings and GM’s look at privious trades to justify their asking prices.

So in reality keeping the market honest benifits baseball. At the end of the day it all falls back onto the fan base as someone has to pay for the mess

I don't think Monty will hang around here if he is not in the rotation. Yeah, eventually he will get up to 6 million arby numbers and move on like Travis Wood, so maybe they are just delaying that inevitable.

CSF77 · Dec 28, 2017

anotheridiot said:
Don't forget the visiting team gets a cut of the gate too, now I would venture to guess the cubs draw more at visiting stadiums, but still some of those are only getting 12-15000 fans, but its still give and take for visiting clubs.

It goes both ways. It is hard to adjust for that bit.

CSF77 · Dec 28, 2017

I don't think Monty will hang around here if he is not in the rotation. Yeah, eventually he will get up to 6 million arby numbers and move on like Travis Wood, so maybe they are just delaying that inevitable.

Idk honestly with Monty. I really think he needs to add a out pitch. He has a slider and a 4 seem that hits 94. And for a lefty that is something to work with. If he added a cutter to net 2 types of breaking pitches to go with his 4 seem. Then defined his change to play off his 4 seem.

It is almost like guessing amount of break and also speed variance.

But a guy like him could end up a real sleeper.

But with The signing of a 4-5 I really don’t think it is wise to gamble 2 rotation spots on a contender.

That is why they should trade him imo.

jooo83 · Dec 28, 2017

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...n-yelich-catcher-jt-realmuto-order-cut-salary

Any interest in Yelich?

Omeletpants · Dec 28, 2017

jooo83 said:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...n-yelich-catcher-jt-realmuto-order-cut-salary

Any interest in Yelich?

We have 47 outfielders and you want another? Makes a lot of sense

jooo83 · Dec 28, 2017

Omeletpants said:
We have 47 outfielders and you want another? Makes a lot of sense

First off, I never said I wanted him. I simply asked a question. Second, he plays CF. And it is not clear that the Cubs have an everyday CF at this point (unless you are sold on Almora). I'm also curious if he has ever led off.

CSF77 · Dec 28, 2017

Not sure honestly. I feel that he is a legit lead off and a upgrade to Almora in that respect. Flipping Almora and others for him makes sense but I wouldn’t over pay.

That said I really feel that they will give Schwarber another shot. Schwarber filling his potential is worth more than what Yelich brings.

That is why I wouldn’t over pay honestly. Almora is a decent 7-8 hitter that plays top end CF. He doesn’t need to be a lead off if Schwarber grows into what was envisioned.

beckdawg · Dec 29, 2017

Yelich isn't really a CF. He's a LF playing CF. On his career he has a -5.9 UZR/150 and -12 DRS over roughly 2 seasons worth of playing time in CF. His range and fielding are roughly average but his arm is terrible.

In terms of whether or not the cubs should go after him I would go with no with a slight caveat in that it depends on how cheap he is. Think you could make a case for him in LF though I'm still a big Schwarber guy. My bigger issue is I imagine it's going to take more in trade to get him than he's worth to the cubs vs alternatives. He's also not super cheap. He's owed $7 mil next year, $9.75 in 2019, $12.5 in 2020, $14 mil in 2021 and has a 2022 option for $15 mil/$1.25 mil buy out. There's some surplus value there especially if he's the 4.5-ish win player he's been before but I'm just saying it's not like he's on a rookie deal.

Overall though I just think people need to warm up to Almora a bit. He's been worth 2 wins over 440 PAs which is roughly a 3 win player assuming full time play and he'll only be 24 next year. Bryant didn't really become BRYANT until his second year in the league at 24. That's not to conflate Almora with the 8 win 24 year old Bryant but just to say that Almora is still really young. If he is what he was vs RHP in the 2nd half of last year(.319/.311/.583 with a 123 wRC+) or close to it and if his defensive numbers tick up a bit as he becomes more familiar with MLB parks(metrics don't love him but scouts do so guessing it's an adjustment thing) he could easily be a 3.5-4 win player.

anotheridiot · Dec 29, 2017

They just need to use Heyward in centerfield if Almora fails, then you put Zobrist, Schwarber or Bryant in right field. People wont complain if Heyward gets 20 million to not lead off and hit .230.

Lets not forget Almora was Theos very first pick for the cubs, its time he allows him to play gold glove center field

PickSix · Dec 29, 2017

Wade Davis to Rockies. 3yr/$52 mill.

anotheridiot · Dec 29, 2017

PickSix said:
Wade Davis to Rockies. 3yr/$52 mill.

fourth year worth 15 million. How is this a record after what Chapman got last year and why the hell would any pitcher choose Colorado?

Amazed the cubs could not come up with something close.

fatbeard · Dec 29, 2017

anotheridiot said:
fourth year worth 15 million. How is this a record after what Chapman got last year and why the hell would any pitcher choose Colorado?

Amazed the cubs could not come up with something close.

That's a severe overpay for a guy on the downslope.

smknivy420 · Dec 29, 2017

anotheridiot said:
fourth year worth 15 million. How is this a record after what Chapman got last year and why the hell would any pitcher choose Colorado?

Amazed the cubs could not come up with something close.

He probably would've chosen to play in Baghdad for a contract that could be worth up to $66M

TC in Mississippi · Dec 29, 2017

anotheridiot said:
fourth year worth 15 million. How is this a record after what Chapman got last year and why the hell would any pitcher choose Colorado?

Amazed the cubs could not come up with something close.

I might have been OK with 3/$45 mil but it's an overpay and I never given the 4th year vesting option. Davis' BB/9 scares the hell out of me. Colorado went Davis because Holland is supposedly holding firm at 5/$85 mil, and holding fast to the 5th year if not the money. I'm good with Morrow getting a shot.

Diehardfan · Dec 29, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
I might have been OK with 3/$45 mil but it's an overpay and I never given the 4th year vesting option. Davis' BB/9 scares the hell out of me. Colorado went Davis because Holland is supposedly holding firm at 5/$85 mil, and holding fast to the 5th year if not the money. I'm good with Morrow getting a shot.

Yeah, I agree. Davis got a lot of "edge of your seat" saves last year and most of them was his own doing. If memory serves, I think we were both saying that Edwards is the closer of the future. That future may happen at some point this season if Morrow doesn't work out.

Omeletpants · Dec 29, 2017

Davis > Edwards. We are in worse shape than if we signed Davis. What we have seen so far is Edwards is a choke artist

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