Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

CSF77

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You realize how many players the cubs sign every year you never even hear of right? Of the players you listed the only one who was even marginally well regarded was Albertos. The rest were really cheap signings that out performed expectations. But there's literally dozens of players like this signed every year who you will never hear from. And when I say that I mean every player save for Albertos on that list was literally such a no name that they wouldn't even warrant listing in the top 30 IFAs in any given year they signed.

The point here being is literally none of those players were top prospects who got big bonuses. So sure teams will pull talent like that out of the international market but that's far more crap shoot than even drafting if that's what you're counting on. To illustrate my point, this was just the signings the cubs had from this past period where they had limited flexibility to spend

From cubs reporter

Pretty sure it was Tseng/Eloy and Torres that caused them to go over: worth it based off of what they bought. WS title TOR pitcher and a nice arm that has potential to be a staple in a team’s (not necessarily the Cubs) rotation.

Sure looking at a team in the penalty the names are really not flashy. But what put them there is a whole another story.

And all were international vs domestic.

Cease was the lesser chip to get Q.

Honestly my approach is: Cubs are in a contending window and acquiring talent via the farm is best used as trade goods.

In a rebuilding phase like the Sox are in then it is used for the base of the next generation.

You really have to tank now to even consider taking the farm too serious. Until then it is more miss then hit due to the team’s draft pick’s and international penalty
 

beckdawg

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Every single player they signed is latin. The team will need translators for the few white players on the team

I mean you realize these players being signed for for the dominican summer league right? Occasionally you will see some 18 year old players from asia signed as an IFA(Tseng for example) but the vast majority of july 2nd players are from the carribean.
 

CSF77

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I mean you realize these players being signed for for the dominican summer league right? Occasionally you will see some 18 year old players from asia signed as an IFA(Tseng for example) but the vast majority of july 2nd players are from the carribean.

Don’t think Trunp’s proposed wall goes as far as he wants
 

beckdawg

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Pretty sure it was Tseng/Eloy and Torres that caused them to go over: worth it based off of what they bought. WS title TOR pitcher and a nice arm that has potential to be a staple in a team’s (not necessarily the Cubs) rotation.

Sure looking at a team in the penalty the names are really not flashy. But what put them there is a whole another story.

And all were international vs domestic.

Cease was the lesser chip to get Q.

Honestly my approach is: Cubs are in a contending window and acquiring talent via the farm is best used as trade goods.

In a rebuilding phase like the Sox are in then it is used for the base of the next generation.

You really have to tank now to even consider taking the farm too serious. Until then it is more miss then hit due to the team’s draft pick’s and international penalty

Maybe I'm not just not understanding your point here. Where you've lost me is we started talking about the additional slot money and what that means and you've morphed that into a discussion about IFA. There's two types of IFA signings in a some what similar fashion to how you can view draft picks. There are obviously top 100 pick type draft picks and there are high dollar IFA's. So, you're talking about your Eloy/Torres/Tseng(to a lessor extent but was still top 30) types compared to any 1st/2nd round pick. You then have your cheaper signings as IFAs who frankly more often than not are just org filler for the DSL which are some what comparable to any pick after the 10th round in the draft.

You're always going to have the second type of IFA signing. Even when the cubs had little max they could spend i literally just showed 33 players they signed. And like Castro/Contreras/Alzolay....etc some of them are going to turn out to be better than you expect. But you can't count on that just like finding a gem after the 10th round of the draft is really hard. If you want to argue that there are more gems in the IFA class than post 10th round in most drafts I can see that argument. But there's also far more busts that never amount to anything. Effectively you're dealing with players who've been scouted less so sure some guys will surprise you both good and bad. They are also younger(16 vs 18 usually) which means you're projecting more.

If you're point was they can get better ceiling talent out of IFA... i mean sure but that was never what I was arguing against with regard to the extra picks. And the cubs were going to invest that sort of IFA money on top 30 IFAs anyways. However, you have to realize that things aren't like they were even 2 years ago. No team signed more than 2 top 30 IFA's(using mlb.com rankings). The new rules severely limit what you're able to do. Best case you're likely talking about 2 maybe 3 potential impact talents in a given class and then the rest is going to be DSL filler that may or may not be anything. You aren't refilling a system that way. And honestly the odds of even the impact talent flaming out are fairly high.

What having additional slot money in the draft allows you to do is to increase the amount of players you bring in yearly who have more than an average ceiling. For example let's say in a given year you can bring in 5 guys like that(2 IFA big money guys and the first 3 rounds of the draft). If you manage to create additional draft money via picks and can then use that to acquire another guy that's a big deal. And if you continually find ways to do that every year for say 5 years you've effectively created a draft class out of nothing.
 

Omeletpants

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I mean you realize these players being signed for for the dominican summer league right? Occasionally you will see some 18 year old players from asia signed as an IFA(Tseng for example) but the vast majority of july 2nd players are from the carribean.
No, I didn't realize. LOLOLOLOLOLOLO
 

anotheridiot

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The cubs were one of a handful of teams that had a center in the dominican. That was why they got the castro lot. Teams saw what was happening and everyone has a facility down there now. They expected the players to stick with the team and not sign anywhere else. Now all this international draft stuff has teams far less interested than when they were stashing players for themselves.
 

CSF77

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Maybe I'm not just not understanding your point here. Where you've lost me is we started talking about the additional slot money and what that means and you've morphed that into a discussion about IFA. There's two types of IFA signings in a some what similar fashion to how you can view draft picks. There are obviously top 100 pick type draft picks and there are high dollar IFA's. So, you're talking about your Eloy/Torres/Tseng(to a lessor extent but was still top 30) types compared to any 1st/2nd round pick. You then have your cheaper signings as IFAs who frankly more often than not are just org filler for the DSL which are some what comparable to any pick after the 10th round in the draft.

You're always going to have the second type of IFA signing. Even when the cubs had little max they could spend i literally just showed 33 players they signed. And like Castro/Contreras/Alzolay....etc some of them are going to turn out to be better than you expect. But you can't count on that just like finding a gem after the 10th round of the draft is really hard. If you want to argue that there are more gems in the IFA class than post 10th round in most drafts I can see that argument. But there's also far more busts that never amount to anything. Effectively you're dealing with players who've been scouted less so sure some guys will surprise you both good and bad. They are also younger(16 vs 18 usually) which means you're projecting more.

If you're point was they can get better ceiling talent out of IFA... i mean sure but that was never what I was arguing against with regard to the extra picks. And the cubs were going to invest that sort of IFA money on top 30 IFAs anyways. However, you have to realize that things aren't like they were even 2 years ago. No team signed more than 2 top 30 IFA's(using mlb.com rankings). The new rules severely limit what you're able to do. Best case you're likely talking about 2 maybe 3 potential impact talents in a given class and then the rest is going to be DSL filler that may or may not be anything. You aren't refilling a system that way. And honestly the odds of even the impact talent flaming out are fairly high.

What having additional slot money in the draft allows you to do is to increase the amount of players you bring in yearly who have more than an average ceiling. For example let's say in a given year you can bring in 5 guys like that(2 IFA big money guys and the first 3 rounds of the draft). If you manage to create additional draft money via picks and can then use that to acquire another guy that's a big deal. And if you continually find ways to do that every year for say 5 years you've effectively created a draft class out of nothing.

Basically after pick 20 the chances to net a gem become slim. Even Little and Lange had their issues going in.

To me the investment has to go into the development staff. There is no limit there and getting people in place that are able to mold talent pays off more than anything. At that point all you have to rely on is scouting (which all teams have) and draft selection.

If there is a quality arm in some far part of the globe I’m pretty sure it is not just one team looking into him.

So the factor that pays off the most is your staff. Just saying
 

beckdawg

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Basically after pick 20 the chances to net a gem become slim. Even Little and Lange had their issues going in.

To me the investment has to go into the development staff. There is no limit there and getting people in place that are able to mold talent pays off more than anything. At that point all you have to rely on is scouting (which all teams have) and draft selection.

If there is a quality arm in some far part of the globe I’m pretty sure it is not just one team looking into him.

So the factor that pays off the most is your staff. Just saying

That's not really true at all. Syndergaard was the 38th pick in the draft. Lester was 57th. Gio Gonzalez was 38th. Patrick Corbin was 80th. Stanton was the 76th pick. Votto was 44th. So on and so forth. The talent doesn't really drop off until after the 100th or so pick though obviously every draft is different.
 

CSF77

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That's not really true at all. Syndergaard was the 38th pick in the draft. Lester was 57th. Gio Gonzalez was 38th. Patrick Corbin was 80th. Stanton was the 76th pick. Votto was 44th. So on and so forth. The talent doesn't really drop off until after the 100th or so pick though obviously every draft is different.

That really goes into development. Getting that talent to mature.

The top 20 picks are the obvious choices. They are the heaviest scouted players. From 20-100 you are looking more so at potential vs eliete.

Now if you have a eliete system the odds are in your favor.

There are many factors in the process of a prospect becoming eliete or a bust. But a major part of it comes from development. Basically getting that player from a unpolished player to a polished one.

Theo knows this and hired Jim Benedict to improve that aspect of their organization.

There is a reason why certain teams can develop and others are lacking. It falls under 2 areas. Scouting and development.
 

CSF77

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But taking the Cubs situation: Under Theo and Jed they have not produced a major league quality pitcher from the draft. Hendricks the got in a trade when he was at AA. so he got some polishing here. Edwards was another trade. Spent more time developing in the system but was a pen fall back.

The rest were some one else’s developed player.

Jim Hendry was better in this regard. He developed Zambrano, Cashner, Shark, Hill, Marshall, Marmol. Probley others also.

And I felt at the time that Jim was more miss in general. Prior was a no brained pick. Following year he had 5 picks in the first 2 rounds and blew them all except for Hill. Then he traded away Donaldson (who was drafted as a Catcher in the 2nd round as a toss in piece for Harden in 2008. Worked out great... especially the catcher bit. Yep great team down there.

So as I see it Tom Rickets has pretty much has given Theo a first class rebuilt organization. From ST facilities to centers over seas. It only makes sense to fill it with top rate personnel to run it.


Now on talent: every player drafted was the best player on their team. So to even be a person scouted and sought after you have to have raw talent. Be it the 1st obivous pick or the unknown 40-59 round guy like Pujos was. To even be drafted you have raw talent of a varing degree

It is up to the development side to bring it out
 

DanTown

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But taking the Cubs situation: Under Theo and Jed they have not produced a major league quality pitcher from the draft. Hendricks the got in a trade when he was at AA. so he got some polishing here. Edwards was another trade. Spent more time developing in the system but was a pen fall back.

The rest were some one else’s developed player.

Jim Hendry was better in this regard. He developed Zambrano, Cashner, Shark, Hill, Marshall, Marmol. Probley others also.

And I felt at the time that Jim was more miss in general. Prior was a no brained pick. Following year he had 5 picks in the first 2 rounds and blew them all except for Hill. Then he traded away Donaldson (who was drafted as a Catcher in the 2nd round as a toss in piece for Harden in 2008. Worked out great... especially the catcher bit. Yep great team down there.

So as I see it Tom Rickets has pretty much has given Theo a first class rebuilt organization. From ST facilities to centers over seas. It only makes sense to fill it with top rate personnel to run it.


Now on talent: every player drafted was the best player on their team. So to even be a person scouted and sought after you have to have raw talent. Be it the 1st obivous pick or the unknown 40-59 round guy like Pujos was. To even be drafted you have raw talent of a varing degree

It is up to the development side to bring it out

One, the Cubs have never really invested in pitching development like that Cubs team.

Two, the list of guys you're giving Hendry credit for is over a decade where as Theo has been here for what, five drafts now?

Three, the guys you listed is a pretty shitty list outside of two of those guys.

Four, who cares about just pitchers considering Theo always said in the rebuild that he wanted high value hitting prospects because they're safer and then spend on pitching when it's expensive but you're far more likely to know what you're getting.
 

TC in Mississippi

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But taking the Cubs situation: Under Theo and Jed they have not produced a major league quality pitcher from the draft. Hendricks the got in a trade when he was at AA. so he got some polishing here. Edwards was another trade. Spent more time developing in the system but was a pen fall back.

The rest were some one else’s developed player.

Jim Hendry was better in this regard. He developed Zambrano, Cashner, Shark, Hill, Marshall, Marmol. Probley others also.

And I felt at the time that Jim was more miss in general. Prior was a no brained pick. Following year he had 5 picks in the first 2 rounds and blew them all except for Hill. Then he traded away Donaldson (who was drafted as a Catcher in the 2nd round as a toss in piece for Harden in 2008. Worked out great... especially the catcher bit. Yep great team down there.

So as I see it Tom Rickets has pretty much has given Theo a first class rebuilt organization. From ST facilities to centers over seas. It only makes sense to fill it with top rate personnel to run it.


Now on talent: every player drafted was the best player on their team. So to even be a person scouted and sought after you have to have raw talent. Be it the 1st obivous pick or the unknown 40-59 round guy like Pujos was. To even be drafted you have raw talent of a varing degree

It is up to the development side to bring it out

Development is key, I completely agree and scouting goes along with that. The thing is different teams have different strengths in those areas. Baltimore has drafted a lot of solid arms over the years but the vast majority of them that have succeeded have found that success in other organizations. For whatever reason their scouting and development staffs don't mesh well. One possible explanation is that they are incredibly injury averse and put rules on what their pitchers can or can't do regardless of their gifts. Clearly Arrieta is the poster child for this but there are others, Fangraphs did a piece on this just as Jake was having success with the Cubs and looking at it through that lens was striking. The White Sox develop a ton of arms and have a solid ratio of draft to MLB with them but on the position player side have never seen the same kind of success. Theo in Boston only drafted one pitcher in the first round (who was a bust) but was very successful at selecting undervalued pitchers later than their scouting told them they should be drafted and had a lot of success developing those guys, including Jon Lester. He's tried the same thing in Chicago with less success and as you point out hired Jim Benedict to correct it. With the position players though he's been wildly successful with both teams as the amount of position players he's drafted that play in Boston, Chicago and throughout the league shows. To me the key is knowing your strengths in the development area and continue doing what works while shoring up your areas of weakness. One of the more interesting teams to watch in regards to this is going to be San Diego going forward. A.J. Preller has put almost all his eggs in teh development basket and has hired some highly regarded people to implement it. Then rather than acquiring top level AA talent or above in trades instead he's gotten more quantity by asking for and receiving lower talent with higher risk but also high reward. In a copy cat league if this works you'll see that again. Of course there are no guarantees.
 

brett05

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Prior to Theo the Cubs had really no success in developing major league hitters for such a long long time.
 

beckdawg

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I think people misunderstand development. It's not a magic cure all. By that I mean you can't just hire the best coaching and turn a average player into a super star. There's basically 3 types of players. There's relatively clean players with few flaws. They are almost always 1st round picks and usually top 15. The second group is players with interesting tools but flaws that hold them back. Arrieta is a good example of this. They tend to be gone by the end of the 5th round. There the draft/development phase is about taking a player with a flaw but otherwise tools you like and fixing the flaw to turn him into the first group of players. The third group is basically average tool organizational filler types. Rarely you can pull some gems out of this group but they are almost always players who changed something and became different players. Justin Turner comes to mind.

If you look at teams who are particularly good at developing something it's not like they just have amazing coaches. It's often a case of knowing for the right type of player to look for. If you've read Big Data Baseball by Travis Sawchik he talks specifically about PIT and how they identified guys who they felt they could fix by adding a 2 seam fastball when the current thinking in vogue was 4 seam high velocity fastballs. If you look at the current cubs regime and what they've done with hitters they've found guys who had good power and good eyes and cared less about position. For example, there's obviously Schwarber but many weren't sure Bryant would stay at 3B. Happ was a weird prospect because he wasn't the prototypical bat for a corner OF and he wasn't thought of as a 2B at the time of the draft.

In terms of expected outcomes, the second and third groups are sort of mirrors. High tool guys are high risk/reward. The org filler types are generally useful but almost never amount to much. If they make the majors they are almost always going to be bench guys. There's a non-0 percent chance of these guys turning into your Hendricks/Matt Carpenter/Justin Turner types. However, theres like 1200 picks in a given draft and probably 900 of the picks fall into this category. In a given draft I can't imagine you're getting more than 5-10 of these type of players. The second group of players has a higher success rate but they are also guys who could be out of baseball in 2-3 years if they can't make any improvement to their flaws.

Regardless, the game here is always a numbers game. You don't develop your way around that. You want as many picks as possible and you want as much slot money. And teams want the slot money to turn org filler type picks into tool type picks.
 

fatbeard

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Sad Fact: Felix Pie once had a -2.3 fWAR season in just 85 games/175 PAs.
 

chibears55

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Absolutely none. You can make the argument that they dramatically failed with Corey Patterson and Felix Pie.
They rushed Patterson and Pie up...
Took a couple years but Patterson was on the right track til he got hurt...

Still waiting for Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters, they should be close now..lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

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