Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

JP Hochbaum said:

The Cubs will have about 3 months of regular season ball to see who their closer its. Between Wilson, Morrow, Edwards and Maples I'd imagine one of them can step up and be the guy. Bullpens are all about who is hot that year.

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Agreed, but Morrow gets the first shot.

Pretty sure this is a closer signing

chibears55 said:

I hope not (Morrow as Closer)

That would actually be a down grade from Davis in that spot... IMO

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Not necessarily, not if you have a few guys to compete for the job. Morrow is the guy they’ll give the first shot to. Most closers, and pen arms in general, are so erratic year to year that eventually you can’t just buy them. IMHO Holland and Davis will be too expensive with both in the area of 4/$60 mil. Guys emerge as closers all the time. If Morrow does it won’t be dissimilar to what Davis h8mself did taking over for Holland. Or maybe Wilson regains his form and eventually takes it. Of course if Colomé can be had in trade you look at him too. Many ways to skin a cat. Overpaying isn’t the only one.

DanTown said:

Morrow is drastically less future money for probably 95% the pitcher Davis is. I think Morrow needs more maintenance than Wade but it's not like Wade was some guy who went 80-85 innings a year so I'd much rather have a two+ commitment than the likely four Wade will cost. Also, Morrow at 10-12 AAV is a high value reliever even if he becomes a top flight setup guy; Wade at 4/60+ has to be a lights out closer and his numbers have gotten worse each of the last three years.

You obviously get nervous about his lack of durability the past few years but you love his stuff. The Dodgers obviously found something in there that was lurking but was never really present and you get nervous with that since it's a new team but I think with the new pitching staff in the organization that they know what they're doing with Morrow.

I'm praying the Cobb thing is a favor to his agent and the player and not a real thing because I don't get committing nearly 30 million to Cobb/Chatwood.

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I don't understand why fans don't want Cobb.

And I certainly don't understand why they'd spend precious time "doing a favor for an agent". To what end?

TC in Mississippi said:

Not necessarily, not if you have a few guys to compete for the job. Morrow is the guy they’ll give the first shot to. Most closers, and pen arms in general, are so erratic year to year that eventually you can’t just buy them. IMHO Holland and Davis will be too expensive with both in the area of 4/$60 mil. Guys emerge as closers all the time. If Morrow does it won’t be dissimilar to what Davis h8mself did taking over for Holland. Or maybe Wilson regains his form and eventually takes it. Of course if Colomé can be had in trade you look at him too. Many ways to skin a cat. Overpaying isn’t the only one.

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Sorry but i find it hard to believe that their only additions to better/upgrade a struggling bullpen

Was to just release Rondon and add Alvarez and Morrow..
That to me is putting on a bandaid and hoping it heals ..
There has to be another move to add a closer

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Beacause everyone thinks this Cubs team need another ace to compete for title, and Cobb is just a decent #3/#4 (Hendricks lite), which is concerning considering Lester is getting up there in age and Q is rather inconsistent (if only they traded for Sale, eh).

Basically, if they don't sign Darvish, resign Arrietta or trade for Archer TOR type, then it's kinda hard to project this team beating Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, etc.

Hammer said:

Beacause everyone thinks this Cubs team need another ace to compete for title, and Cobb is just a decent #3/#4 (Hendricks lite), which is concerning considering Lester is getting up there in age and Q is rather inconsistent (if only they traded for Sale, eh).

Basically, if they don't sign Darvish, resign Arrietta or trade for Archer TOR type, then it's kinda hard to project this team beating Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, etc.

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Yep..

If they sign Cobb now, then they basically are counting on at least 2 of 3 in Cobb Quintana and or Chatwood to raise themselves as a TOR type starter..

Lester age will decrease his productivity and Hendricks IMO is more of a MOR type...

We shall see....


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TL1961 said:

I don't understand why fans don't want Cobb.

And I certainly don't understand why they'd spend precious time "doing a favor for an agent". To what end?

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I can't speak for everyone but my reason is he's a guy who's had multiple big time injures(TJS and thoracic outlet syndrome). And in his "good year" returning last year he was literally a 2 pitch pitcher. That's not just me saying that. It was also Hickey. And if that weren't enough you can look at his pitch values. His change up since returning from injury has been terrible. Pre injury that was his best pitch. To top matters off, he's a guy who's not a high k/bb ratio guy and he's a guy who's hard hit and soft hit rates are among the worst in baseball last year.

Maybe the cubs scouting/analytics know something I don't but you're giving up a 2nd round pick on a team that has lack of farm depth and $500k in IFA money when they can finally spend big agin. And you're also likely giving that player 4-5 years at likely $15+ mil. He looks to me like a guy who way out performed his underlying stats and you're likely going to over pay him and even if he is what he was last year that's likely more of what you would want out of your #5 pitcher than your #4.

Also re: morrow closing... I don't think they are done. My read on the situation is you make this move now so you set yourself up to go into the winter meetings with some cover. It's sort of similar to them signing Chatwood. If shit were to totally hit the fan you could go with Morrow as your closer or at the very least in a group of probably him Wilson strop and edwards headed into spring training with a shot to win the job. Like wise, if you can't get anything done in FA with your preferred starter or via trade you could likely plug someone like Tseng in as your #5. It's not ideal and I'm sure in both cases they'd like to add more but the point is you've relieved some of the pressure to get a guy.

As for how the winter meetings play out I think this could go any number of ways. It wouldn't shock me if they are in on Darivsh and/or Arrieta. My guess is if those two are their top priority for a starter then you're likely going to see them try to push for say Colome or some other closer via trade. The idea here being that you have maybe $30-35 mil you want to spend(might be slightly higher but you also need a back up catcher and likely some other random parts). So, if you spend say $25 mil on one of those two then you only have around $5-10 mil to spend on your closer which is why Colome would make sense. Conversely, you could argue that Davis is their priority as there's just not many people like him available. If he's going to get say $15 mil a year then you'd have $15-20 mil to spend on a #4 starter. That may be why you're still hearing the cubs some what connected to Cobb. They may be playing their options for both of these two cases. Or conversely they may target a #4 starter via trade. Obviously the talk would be Archer but that is hard to get done. Theo and Jed play stuff fairly close to the vest so I'm guessing there may be other names they are considering that aren't as widely known.

A name I've thrown out before that I still kinda like is Daniel Norris. The Tigers are clearly rebuilding and need all the guys they can get prospect wise. Norris was a former top prospect but hasn't quite lived up to that yet. However, he's still only 24. They've brought in guys that are supposed to be among the best at fixing pitchers. Maybe you argue Chatwood is that but I think someone like Norris is who you'd really prefer that they work with.

beckdawg said:

I can't speak for everyone but my reason is he's a guy who's had multiple big time injures(TJS and thoracic outlet syndrome). And in his "good year" returning last year he was literally a 2 pitch pitcher. That's not just me saying that. It was also Hickey. And if that weren't enough you can look at his pitch values. His change up since returning from injury has been terrible. Pre injury that was his best pitch. To top matters off, he's a guy who's not a high k/bb ratio guy and he's a guy who's hard hit and soft hit rates are among the worst in baseball last year.

Maybe the cubs scouting/analytics know something I don't but you're giving up a 2nd round pick on a team that has lack of farm depth and $500k in IFA money when they can finally spend big agin. And you're also likely giving that player 4-5 years at likely $15+ mil. He looks to me like a guy who way out performed his underlying stats and you're likely going to over pay him and even if he is what he was last year that's likely more of what you would want out of your #5 pitcher than your #4.

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I knew I could count on a well thought out reason from you, Beckdawg.

Thanks!

TL1961 said:

I knew I could count on a well thought out reason from you, Beckdawg.

Thanks!

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I'm always happy to help. Just glad someone else gets some use out of my admittedly obsessive nature about all things baseball.

I read all over today that the Red Sox are interested in Schwarber, which doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it could.

Many speculate what position player could come in return.

MLB's Richard Justice, in a column throwing out some possible moves, albeit surprises, suggests a possible David Price for Schwarber deal.

Interesting, I'll say that much.

TL1961 said:

I read all over today that the Red Sox are interested in Schwarber, which doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it could.

Many speculate what position player could come in return.

MLB's Richard Justice, in a column throwing out some possible moves, albeit surprises, suggests a possible David Price for Schwarber deal.

Interesting, I'll say that much.

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The problem with that idea is basically you're looking at a situation similar to Stanton. Price is 32. He's owed $30 mil next year with an opt out. Assuming he doesn't opt out he's then owed $31 mil, and 3x $32 mil. In a straight up trade that would be terrible for the cubs because you're assuming the large part of the contract with a potential opt out if he's great next year and you're getting age 32-36. To make it even worth considering in my eyes you'd have to buy down around $60 mil and have some sort of assurance he doesn't opt out.

I mean maybe you like Price more than say Darvish or Arrieta. He's owed 5 years $157 mil with an opt out. I would assume that would probably buy Arrieta though supposedly he wants a longer deal than 5 years and Arrieta is also 32. Darvish is 31 and probably gets something like 7 years $175. So, while I'm sure the Red Sox would love to trade for Schwarber I think Justice isn't really making sense for the cubs on this one. If the cubs are willing to take on that kind of money for a guy that age they can do it without giving up Schwarber.

beckdawg said:

The problem with that idea is basically you're looking at a situation similar to Stanton. Price is 32. He's owed $30 mil next year with an opt out. Assuming he doesn't opt out he's then owed $31 mil, and 3x $32 mil. In a straight up trade that would be terrible for the cubs because you're assuming the large part of the contract with a potential opt out if he's great next year and you're getting age 32-36. To make it even worth considering in my eyes you'd have to buy down around $60 mil and have some sort of assurance he doesn't opt out.

I mean maybe you like Price more than say Darvish or Arrieta. He's owed 5 years $157 mil with an opt out. I would assume that would probably buy Arrieta though supposedly he wants a longer deal than 5 years and Arrieta is also 32. Darvish is 31 and probably gets something like 7 years $175. So, while I'm sure the Red Sox would love to trade for Schwarber I think Justice isn't really making sense for the cubs on this one. If the cubs are willing to take on that kind of money for a guy that age they can do it without giving up Schwarber.

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This is the one and only time I wish we still had Castro.

TL1961 said:

I knew I could count on a well thought out reason from you, Beckdawg.

Thanks!

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So me saying they cant be done with the bullpen with just Alvarez and Morrow wasnt good enough..
Lmao

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chibears55 said:

So me saying they cant be done with the bullpen with just Alvarez and Morrow wasnt good enough..
Lmao

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Sorry, man. But I don’t ever get the feeling you’ve given your posts a lot of thought.

All over the place. Depends which way the wind blows. ��

TL1961 said:

Sorry, man. But I don’t ever get the feeling you’ve given your posts a lot of thought.

All over the place. Depends which way the wind blows.

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Too bad..
Cause if you think about it, im right or close to it most the time

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Morrow is final pending a physical. 9/9 3 buy out or 12 vesting opt.

It seems expensive for a set up.

TL1961 said:

Sorry, man. But I don’t ever get the feeling you’ve given your posts a lot of thought.

All over the place. Depends which way the wind blows. ��

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He was drinking all day yesterday. Lot of his posts didnt make sense

chibears55 said:

Sorry but i find it hard to believe that their only additions to better/upgrade a struggling bullpen

Was to just release Rondon and add Alvarez and Morrow..
That to me is putting on a bandaid and hoping it heals ..
There has to be another move to add a closer

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If they add Addison Reed or Brandon Kintzler then that's four guys, including Wilson, who can close. You have all season to figure it out. Most closers start as set up guys and don't forget Davis was Holland's set up guy in KC. Morrow was signed to get the first shot at the job. if your bullpen guys are Morrow, Reed or Kintzler, Strop, Edwards, Montgomery, Wilson and a rotating cast of Tseng, Alvarez and a rotating cast a couple of other guys you have a nice mix to build a pen. Relievers are erratic and difficult to predict, paying a lot of money for them rarely works out and both Davis and Holland are going to be way more money than makes sense. I'm worried a lot less about the team building a solid pen than I am about a rotation that could end up being Q, Hendricks, Lester, Cobb and Chatwood. That's just not good enough for me.