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  1. #23
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beckdawg View Post
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    Think it depends on if Ohtani wants to play with the Yankees. If he doesn't they are going to go hard after Cobb.
    This kinda puts the Cubs into a advantage with Cobb. Cubs have to replace 2 guys. Yanks can do nothing and still have Green sitting or 1 year Sabathia at discount. You could argue that Sabathia on a 1 year would be smarter for them with Bum going on the market next offseason.

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  3. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    This kinda puts the Cubs into a advantage with Cobb. Cubs have to replace 2 guys. Yanks can do nothing and still have Green sitting or 1 year Sabathia at discount. You could argue that Sabathia on a 1 year would be smarter for them with Bum going on the market next offseason.
    Not really how I see it. I see the advantage being with Cobb not either team. There's a number of teams that seem to view him better than I do. He's one of the hotter names in the rumor mill thus far probably because people don't want to give Darvish/Arrieta huge deals. I guess from my view point here, I don't really see the upside. Even his best year pre injury was a 2.8 fWAR 2014. Excluding 2015 when he sat the whole year, Darvish's worst season was 2.7 fWAR in 2016 where he only started 17 games. On a 32 game pace that's still roughly a 5 win pace. So, clearly the upside is bigger with Darvish. Think you can apply the same idea to Arrieta though personally I prefer Darvish.

    The question becomes what's the difference in price? The talk is 4/$60 mil for Cobb but given the level of interest he might get 5 years and might do better than $15 mil AAV. Arrieta and Darvish are probably in the 6-7 year(maybe 5-6 on arrieta) ~$25 mil AAV range. So you're talking about roughly a $10 mil in difference between them which a little over 1 win in value(1.25 war if you're using $8 mil per war). In the case of Cobb, you're talking about roughly 1-1.2 wins difference from his 2.8 career best being roughly 4 wins. Darvish had 3.5 wins last year and the 3 seasons prior to getting hurt were 4.6, 4.5, and 3.7. So assuming Cobb doesn't literally pitch his career best year to year think Darvish has a good shot at being within that range. And of course you're also losing IFA money and a draft pick to sign Cobb where you wouldn't to sign Darvish/Arrieta(though you'd lose the one you get for him leaving).

    Cobb seems to have sent out indications that money isn't the biggest thing and that he's looking to get 5 years. The problem I have there is how much are you seriously going to turn down to play with your old pitching coach/manager? Money being equal? Sure go where you want to be comfortable. $1-2 mil less AAV? Maybe but if you start getting in the $3-4 mil less AAV aand you're literally talking about $12-20 difference.

    And on top of matters, while I can see him wanting 5 years and maybe some desperate team gives it to him, I think that's a giant gamble on a guy who's results are fairly iffy if you look at his underlying numbers. For example, let's talk about Phil Hughes. He signed a 6 year $66 mil mid tier FA deal with Minny. With NYY prior to signing he had a 7.6 k/9 2.8 bb/9 and 4.53/4.31 ERA/FIP. Through 4 years of that deal he's been 7.4 fWAR and it's only that high because he had a monster 2014(5.9 fWAR). In terms of similar peripherals, Cobb has 7.33 k/9 2.62 bb/9 and a 3.50/3.68 ERA/FIP. So little better ERA/FIP but similar k/bb rates. You look at other guys in that range like C.J. Wilson, Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Kazmir, Bud Norris, James Shields... etc that mid tier FA pitcher has not been a good investment. J.A. Happ has been decent as has Marco Estrada. Interestingly both of those were blue jay signings. I guess you can sorta argue Lackey was ok but he was more a bet that age catches up with him than him being a poor performer. I'm trying to be fair here and not biased but I really can cite dozens of other bad mid-tier starters that didn't work out and those legitimately are the only 3 I can think of doing a quick look at fangraphs leaderboards since 2010. A nd even in the case of Estrada/Happ I think you can find just as many guys like Hammel was for the cubs or Charlie Morton was for Houston this year who were bottom tier FA starters who pitched way above their expected return.

    In other words, if I have say $35-40 mil to spend on 2 starters I'd rather put $25 mil toward someone like Darvish and $5-10 mil toward say a returning lackey or whatever than I would to sign 2 guys like Cobb.

  4. #25
    Senior Member chibears55's Avatar
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    Cubs want Ohtani , they need to see him before the yankees do and sign him before he goes to NewYork...

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  5. #26
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    I was thinking he would go for 8/12/16/18 with a opt. If he wants more then front load in a bonus.

    Cubs should be at 132 mil if they resign all of their Arb and I doubt they ink Rondon and Grimm which drops it to 126. Tax hits at 197 so in theory they have 71 mil to play with and signing Yu and Davis would soak 38 mil most likely year 1. That still gives 32 mil to play with.
    So in all I really don’t get the whole “need to trade” speech from Theo unless the Ricketts want to keep around 150 mil. And honestly in a winning window is really stupid.

  6. #27
    Senior Member chibears55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    I was thinking he would go for 8/12/16/18 with a opt. If he wants more then front load in a bonus.

    Cubs should be at 132 mil if they resign all of their Arb and I doubt they ink Rondon and Grimm which drops it to 126. Tax hits at 197 so in theory they have 71 mil to play with and signing Yu and Davis would soak 38 mil most likely year 1. That still gives 32 mil to play with.
    So in all I really don’t get the whole “need to trade” speech from Theo unless the Ricketts want to keep around 150 mil. And honestly in a winning window is really stupid.
    Maybe because they prefer to have control of someone 30 or under over paying someone for 6-7 yrs that already 32

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  7. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Cubs want Ohtani , they need to see him before the yankees do and sign him before he goes to NewYork...

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    Both teams have been scouting Ohtani for years, his people are well aware of both teams and of course his US agents CAA are no stranger to either Cashman or Theo. I don't think that's a factor. If you're concerned about relationships the Dodgers have had a relationship with him since he was 12 at least 5 years longer than any other team.

  8. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Cubs want Ohtani , they need to see him before the yankees do and sign him before he goes to NewYork...

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    He will interview all teams and then decide. He will not be signing during the trips
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  9. #30
    Senior Member chibears55's Avatar
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    Point is..
    I want them to make a big enough impression that he'll wants to stay..

    Yankees have a history of making that impression on big FA, not just with the money but with their history and NY itself ..

    Feeling that if he visits the cubs before NY and doesn't sign, Yankees will have a huge advantage in convincing him to sign with them..

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  10. #31
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    edit: oops wrong thread.

  11. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Point is..
    I want them to make a big enough impression that he'll wants to stay..

    Yankees have a history of making that impression on big FA, not just with the money but with their history and NY itself ..

    Feeling that if he visits the cubs before NY and doesn't sign, Yankees will have a huge advantage in convincing him to sign with them..

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    Strange, I can't imagine a city I'd want to live in less than New York.

  12. #33
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fatbeard View Post
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    Strange, I can't imagine a city I'd want to live in less than New York.
    Japan is very crowded. A city like NYC is not a big issue

  13. #34
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Point is..
    I want them to make a big enough impression that he'll wants to stay..

    Yankees have a history of making that impression on big FA, not just with the money but with their history and NY itself ..

    Feeling that if he visits the cubs before NY and doesn't sign, Yankees will have a huge advantage in convincing him to sign with them..

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    Ohtani is good enough to create his own following so I believe any team could be in the mix. If you had to push a edge it would be team environment and a fellow national to help to adjust to America.

    So imo if you want a edge then pony up for Yu

  14. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Japan is very crowded. A city like NYC is not a big issue
    While japanesse cities are indeed crowded I'm not sure how much they compare culturally to NYC. NYC people have a rep of being very aggressive where as japanesse people are fairly typically reserved.

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    Don't know how interested in the AL he would be, unless a team guarantees him DH on off days. For sure he won't be hitting on pitching days as I believe the rule is, if a pitcher is going to hit for himself, then all pitchers hit that day...

    With the Cubs, he will be able to hit when pitching and pinch hit probably most days. Damn even on occasion throw in a outfield day, all though unlikely.

  16. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Cubs want Ohtani , they need to see him before the yankees do and sign him before he goes to NewYork...

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    Why would Ohtani do this? Why would he not at least hear all offers?

  17. #38
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Shohei Ohtani’s Agent Sends Memo To MLB Teams
    November 25th, 2017 at 10:17pm CST • By Connor Byrne
    With Shohei Ohtani‘s trip to the open market approaching, the phenom’s agent sent a memo on Friday to all major league teams requesting written explanations in both English and Japanese on why they’d be the right fit for the right-handed ace/left-handed slugger, as the Associated Press first reported.

    Ohtani’s lead representative, Nez Balelo of CAA Sports, told teams not to include financial terms of a potential contract in their answers. But with Ohtani’s Japanese organization, the Nippon Ham Fighters, primed to post him as early as Dec. 1, Balelo informed major league clubs that he’d like to receive their responses as soon as possible.

    Here’s a rundown of the memo’s specifics, courtesy of Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times:

    “An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter;
    “Player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities;
    “Major League, Minor League, and Spring Training facilities;
    “Resources for Shohei’s cultural assimilation;
    “A detailed plan for integrating Shohei into the organization;
    “Why the city and franchise are a desirable place to play;
    “Relevant marketplace characteristics.”
    While nothing listed above is particularly surprising, it’s the first real look at the factors that will influence the ballyhooed Ohtani’s decision when he officially becomes free to sign with any major league team. Thanks to the rules in the collective bargaining agreement, the 23-year-old Ohtani will have to sign an inexpensive minor league contract this offseason, and the fact that there’s a fairly even financial playing field figures to lead to interest from every big league team. It’s worth noting, though, that the Rangers, Yankees, Twins, Pirates, Marlins and Mariners are entering the Ohtani sweepstakes in the most advantageous positions in terms of international bonus pool space.

    Of those six clubs, the Rangers, Yankees and Mariners have had the most success reeling in Japanese stars in the past, which may help in their attempts to win the Ohtani sweepstakes, but this is setting up to be either a 30-team battle royale or something close to it. The major league franchise that outdoes the other 29 in courting Ohtani will have to pay a maximum $20MM posting fee to his Japanese team, though that’s a relative pittance to secure a potential two-way superstar who could dramatically alter an organization both on and off the field.

  18. #39
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    1. Yanks
    2. Mariners
    3. Rangers

    That is how I believe it plays out. Pretty sure that Yu’s comments on the Rangers will work as a disadvantage to them.

    Seattle is putting them self into a pay day situation and is pretty much equal to NYY in Japan influences.

    Should be close and spring training facilities may end up the major factor.

    I see the Cubs at almost 0% with this memo. Seems him being able to hit will be a factor

  19. #40
    Senior Member anotheridiot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oober View Post
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    Don't know how interested in the AL he would be, unless a team guarantees him DH on off days. For sure he won't be hitting on pitching days as I believe the rule is, if a pitcher is going to hit for himself, then all pitchers hit that day...

    With the Cubs, he will be able to hit when pitching and pinch hit probably most days. Damn even on occasion throw in a outfield day, all though unlikely.
    I always thought the question was, why would he be interested in the NL if he can only hit once on his off pitching days
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  20. #41
    Senior Member chibears55's Avatar
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  21. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by TL1961 View Post
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    Why would Ohtani do this? Why would he not at least hear all offers?
    Unless im wrong, only thing teams can offer are minor league deals...

    Ohtani decision is going to be based on who makes the best presentation and wins him over...


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  22. #43
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani Among Priorities For Twins
    November 26th, 2017 at 11:05am CST • By Connor Byrne
    Speaking with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio on Sunday, Twins general manager Thad Levine confirmed that the team is in the market for major pitching upgrades. Levine revealed that the Twins are actively talking with the agents for available starters Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, among others, as well as representatives for various relievers (all Twitter links). The executive specifically pointed to Darvish as “a priority,” and he used the same word to describe soon-to-be free agent Shohei Ohtani.

    “He’s a unique free agent, but we don’t know a lot about him personally yet,” Levine said of Ohtani. “It’s exciting for us because we have a chance to sign a player like him. He’s a top priority for us.”

    The three-week sweepstakes to sign Ohtani, a Japanese pitching and hitting superstar, appears likely to commence at the start of December. Had the 23-year-old Ohtani waited until the age of 25 to come to the majors, he would have been in line to sign a mega-deal, which may have ruled out a serious Twins pursuit. But the collective bargaining agreement will limit Ohtani to a low-cost minor league contract this offseason, thereby giving all teams some chance to sign him if they’re willing to pay a $20MM posting fee to his Japanese organization, the Nippon Ham Fighters, for his services. While money isn’t going to guide Ohtani’s decision this offseason, it’s notable anyway that the Twins have the third-most bonus pool space available ($3.245MM). That won’t hurt them in their chase, of course, but they’ll have to sell Ohtani on how he’d fit into their organization and city.

    Interestingly, there has been speculation that, because of the good relationship they forged in their homeland, Ohtani and Darvish, 31, could end up with the same team this winter as a sort of package deal. Landing the pair would be an enormous boon for anyone, including Minnesota, which snapped a six-year playoff drought in 2017 despite an underwhelming showing from its rotation. Twins starters ranked 19th in the majors in ERA (4.73) and 22nd in fWAR (7.7) last season, so the need for quality hurlers to complement Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios is obvious.

    Considering Darvish could pull in the richest contract of the offseason, many would expect him to land outside of small-market Minnesota’s price range. However, the club is well positioned to make a bold strike in free agency this winter, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this month. The team itself seems to agree, judging by the established free agents it’s currently pursuing, and it’s worth noting that Levine is already familiar with Darvish from their time together in Texas.

    When the Rangers landed Darvish out of Japan in 2012, Levine was their assistant GM. That experience might help during Ohtani’s recruitment, as could the fact that the Twins aren’t exactly set at designated hitter. By most accounts, Ohtani has enough offensive talent to collect regular at-bats in the majors, so he could emerge as the DH for a Minnesota team that only received average production there from Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas last season.

  23. #44
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Not really sure on Minn and Yu/Ohtani. But it is a match up in needs. It would put that team into the play off picture for years to come.

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