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  1. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Not really sure on Minn and Yu/Ohtani. But it is a match up in needs. It would put that team into the play off picture for years to come.
    Really doubt that's enough to sway him to go to minnesota but if that's all it takes the cubs could easily make the same offer. In fact I'd argue the best move the cubs can make is to sign darvish regardless of ohtani. The fact that darvish might give you an edge with regard to ohtani is just bonus.

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  3. #46
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    I know most here want to create loophole theories of why the Cubs have a shot. And I get it it is part of being a fan and all of a team. But realistic speaking. He would lose out on too many ABís if he pitches on a NL team.

    My theory was he would go NL because of the 5 game pitching rotation vs the 1 per week in Japan. That memo pretty much states hitting and pitching. Which means two way player. Which puts the best NL situation behind the worst AL situation.

    But I get it. Being a fan makes one unrealistic.

  4. #47
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    But that said. My opinion of him is DL case in his future. Most pitchers coming over end up under the knife anyways. Then you add in DH duties.

    Sure he did it there but over there he was the Tue night starter then DH the rest. Over here he is pitching every 5th day and DH the other 4. Feels like a implosion

  5. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    I know most here want to create loophole theories of why the Cubs have a shot. And I get it it is part of being a fan and all of a team. But realistic speaking. He would lose out on too many AB’s if he pitches on a NL team.
    I strongly disagree. The assumption you're playing with is that he's going to DH but I just don't buy it. For one thing he's not going to play literally every day which is what most DH's do. As a pitcher you don't want him active every day because by the time he pitches he'll be useless. So in the best case maybe he hits DH when he pitches and 2 out of the next 4 days he has off. But that then means you're having a guy on your active roster who's there solely to DH the remaining time. And the thing is that's not how AL teams build. They don't build for a DH like an NL team would with guys who can be 4th/5th OF. They find guys who can hit and put them as the full time DH and they are generally guys who don't provide value else where.

    That's why I think the idea of him as an AL DH is stupid. You have to go into the season assuming he's going to see major time when he's never hit in the majors and you have no idea if he will even be good or how much that will impact his pitching. That's why the NL makes much more sense to me. Letting him hit costs you as the team nothing. If he's a bad hitter vs MLB pitching then it's just like any other pitcher. If he performs well then you can consider PH situations. Between those two cases he can easily get to 100+ PAs. The 10 best DH's in baseball had 500+ PAs. Think it's safe to say he's not going to be that yet. For the sake of argument let's say 400 PAs is what an "average" DH will get. If he's playing 3 out of 5 games(60%) he'd get 240 PAs. As a reference point here, La Stella had 44 PAs as a PH and Lester had 65 PAs as a pitcher. So that's ~110 PAs.

    So you're really only talking about 130 or so PA difference if he's good and if he's good as a hitter a creative NL manager will find ways to use him. For example, you wouldn't have to take him out after PH. You could allow him to stay in RF for a second at bat depending on the game situation/his usage the previous days. Alternatively, I would strongly see Maddon being Maddon if he came to the cubs and just emptying his bench on sundays. Playing in LF/RF one day a week could easily net you another 100 PAs over a full season. Plus if you put him on an AL team and say he's the DH do you really want that pressure on him? It's hard enough to be a good pitcher in baseball but now you're throwing on top of that the difficulty of him not only needing to be a good pitcher but needing him to play well as a hitter since you've gone down the path of a platoon DH.

    He may go to an AL team but I don't think it will be because he's going to be their every day DH. And if he truly wants to hit I think he'll go to an NL team because the barrier for the team to allow him to hit is much lower. In the AL you have to sacrifice likely an above league average hitter to let him see any shot at hitting. In the NL he's potentially Arrieta/Bumgarner as a value added pitcher. As a comparison here, Bumgarner the last 4 years as a pitcher has hit .224/.272/.433 with 15 HRs in 292 PAs. Last year Ohtani had 231 PAs and 8 HRs. He did hit for a significantly higher triple slash at .332/.403/.540 but obviously it was vs worse pitching. Eric Thames hit .247/.359/.518 in the majors and .321/.427/.679 in Korea(2016) as someone who successfully transitioned from asian pro ball to the majors. So can Ohtani maybe hit say .240/.310/.380? Maybe but a league average DH last year hit .248/.320/.434.

    And sure you promise to give him the chance to hit if that's what it takes to sign him as a pitcher. My only point here is people expecting him to actually be an above average hitter are likely way to optimistic. If he were to come over purely as a hitter he'd go straight to the minors and probably not even AAA.

  6. #49
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    ďAn evaluation of Shoheiís talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter

    That part is the flag. Hitting matters to him. Add to it he has gone as far as studdying Bryceís hitting technique. Which in general means not satisfied as a hobby hitter as most NL pitchers are.

    The reality is this is a unique case where you have a guy that can hit 100 mph and hit 30 HRís. It is unheard of and even Babe had to choose which he loved more.

    Seeing how this is uncharted territory and he is creating a niche. I doubt he limits himself by removing a path to the most ABís.

    A pitcher will get 3 ABís per game as a starter. Avg 33 starts. 99 ABís. Then 1 PH per off day 129. 238 potential ABís.

    DH 4 off days donít hit on start. 4 AB per. 516 potential ABís

    Over 2X the ABís

    Now I get a fan perspective and how it clouds judgement. The ABís alone point towards a AL marriage.

    Now I believe that he will wreck his body and be forced to choose his true love. But out of the gate he will go after his dream of being a two way player and a AL team is the ONLY choice.

  7. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    “An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter

    That part is the flag. Hitting matters to him. Add to it he has gone as far as studdying Bryce’s hitting technique. Which in general means not satisfied as a hobby hitter as most NL pitchers are.

    The reality is this is a unique case where you have a guy that can hit 100 mph and hit 30 HR’s. It is unheard of and even Babe had to choose which he loved more.

    Seeing how this is uncharted territory and he is creating a niche. I doubt he limits himself by removing a path to the most AB’s.

    A pitcher will get 3 AB’s per game as a starter. Avg 33 starts. 99 AB’s. Then 1 PH per off day 129. 238 potential AB’s.

    DH 4 off days don’t hit on start. 4 AB per. 516 potential AB’s

    Over 2X the AB’s

    Now I get a fan perspective and how it clouds judgement. The AB’s alone point towards a AL marriage.

    Now I believe that he will wreck his body and be forced to choose his true love. But out of the gate he will go after his dream of being a two way player and a AL team is the ONLY choice.
    Because no team is going to ask a guy to be a 500 PA hitter and pitch 200 innings. There is no way that a guy has the energy, stamina, and leg strength to do that.

    I could see a team like the Cubs saying

    This could be your schedule

    Day 1 - Pitch
    Day 2 - one PH PA OR total day off
    Day 3 - OF
    Day 4 - OF
    Day 5 - total day off
    Day 6 - Pitch

    I mean he's battled injuries in Japan, if his goal is to come to the US, play and travel in a way that he's never done against the best competition in the world then he's going to need rest days built in to it.

  8. #51
    Senior Member chibears55's Avatar
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    I think some of you are looking too deep into this....

    The guy a pitcher who can hit well...

    In 4 seasons he played 62 G in OF, none in last 3 seasons.....
    85 G as a Pitcher.

    I wouldnt be surprise if the kid just wants to pitch and will be satified with getting his AB then and PH in other games, with maybe being a DH in a few of those games..
    I doubt he ever starts in OF

    He'll get about 150 ABs



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  9. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    “An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter

    That part is the flag. Hitting matters to him. Add to it he has gone as far as studdying Bryce’s hitting technique. Which in general means not satisfied as a hobby hitter as most NL pitchers are.

    The reality is this is a unique case where you have a guy that can hit 100 mph and hit 30 HR’s. It is unheard of and even Babe had to choose which he loved more.

    Seeing how this is uncharted territory and he is creating a niche. I doubt he limits himself by removing a path to the most AB’s.

    A pitcher will get 3 AB’s per game as a starter. Avg 33 starts. 99 AB’s. Then 1 PH per off day 129. 238 potential AB’s.

    DH 4 off days don’t hit on start. 4 AB per. 516 potential AB’s

    Over 2X the AB’s

    Now I get a fan perspective and how it clouds judgement. The AB’s alone point towards a AL marriage.

    Now I believe that he will wreck his body and be forced to choose his true love. But out of the gate he will go after his dream of being a two way player and a AL team is the ONLY choice.
    He's not that unique. If Bumgarner wanted to he could hit 30 HRs. Arrieta probably could too. So, ask yourself why aren't teams finding ways to put them into the line up every chance they can? And frankly just because he can hit 30 HRs which I'm dubious on(reports I've read said 25 tops) that doesn't mean anything. Schwarber hit 30 HRs in 486 PAs last year and many cubs fans think he's garbage. If Ohtani hits .220 or w/e he's not particularly useful. And you simply can't sit here and say because he hit over .300 in japan that he's a quality hitter. Scouting I've read on him suggested he'd be a 45 grade hit tool which is like .250 but it could easily be worse than that because if memory serves Schwarber had a 60 hit grade coming into the majors and obviously that hasn't worked out yet.

    And I mean you think Bumgarner and Arrieta don't like batting just as much as Ohtani does? Bumgarner was angling to get in the HR derby. But like Ohtani, pitching is where their bread is buttered and they know that. Ultimately there's a reason you don't see 2 way guys and MLB isn't just going to change because of one guy. I'm sure some will promise him the chance but ultimately if in AL team offers him DH it's going to quickly fade and I'm willing to bet we don't hear about it in 3 years because it's just too hard to do the kind of prep you need to for both pitching and hitting and the game is exhausting. Full time hitters only often don't get to 500 PAs and they aren't also pitching every 5th day.

    If hitting is important to him then he should flat out go to the NL. He can still focus on pitching 24/7 and still see enough opportunities to scratch the itch. And if he's actually good as a hitter theres plenty of other ways to get him more chances be it by hitting him higher in the line up, PHs, an occasional positional start...etc. But he's never making $200 mil+ because he can hit. If the idea is he wants to come now to quickly get that $200+ mil extension he's going to need to pitch lights out. Him trying to full time DH is just distracting from that.

  10. #53
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    I get how hitting is a distraction to pitching. But this is his situation and honestly he has every team at his feet begging. He will get what he wants regardless of any common sense.

    I just see him following his heart and what happens happens. If team: A says you need to pitch and hitting maybe in a limited role. They shot themselves in the foot.

    Best situation is: want to DH. You got it. You want Yu. Got it. Anything else sir.

  11. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanTown View Post
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    Because no team is going to ask a guy to be a 500 PA hitter and pitch 200 innings. There is no way that a guy has the energy, stamina, and leg strength to do that.

    I could see a team like the Cubs saying

    This could be your schedule

    Day 1 - Pitch
    Day 2 - one PH PA OR total day off
    Day 3 - OF
    Day 4 - OF
    Day 5 - total day off
    Day 6 - Pitch

    I mean he's battled injuries in Japan, if his goal is to come to the US, play and travel in a way that he's never done against the best competition in the world then he's going to need rest days built in to it.
    His only OF day would be the day he would be scheduled to throw on the side.
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  12. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by beckdawg View Post
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    He's not that unique. If Bumgarner wanted to he could hit 30 HRs. Arrieta probably could too. So, ask yourself why aren't teams finding ways to put them into the line up every chance they can? And frankly just because he can hit 30 HRs which I'm dubious on(reports I've read said 25 tops) that doesn't mean anything. Schwarber hit 30 HRs in 486 PAs last year and many cubs fans think he's garbage. If Ohtani hits .220 or w/e he's not particularly useful. And you simply can't sit here and say because he hit over .300 in japan that he's a quality hitter. Scouting I've read on him suggested he'd be a 45 grade hit tool which is like .250 but it could easily be worse than that because if memory serves Schwarber had a 60 hit grade coming into the majors and obviously that hasn't worked out yet.

    And I mean you think Bumgarner and Arrieta don't like batting just as much as Ohtani does? Bumgarner was angling to get in the HR derby. But like Ohtani, pitching is where their bread is buttered and they know that. Ultimately there's a reason you don't see 2 way guys and MLB isn't just going to change because of one guy. I'm sure some will promise him the chance but ultimately if in AL team offers him DH it's going to quickly fade and I'm willing to bet we don't hear about it in 3 years because it's just too hard to do the kind of prep you need to for both pitching and hitting and the game is exhausting. Full time hitters only often don't get to 500 PAs and they aren't also pitching every 5th day.

    If hitting is important to him then he should flat out go to the NL. He can still focus on pitching 24/7 and still see enough opportunities to scratch the itch. And if he's actually good as a hitter theres plenty of other ways to get him more chances be it by hitting him higher in the line up, PHs, an occasional positional start...etc. But he's never making $200 mil+ because he can hit. If the idea is he wants to come now to quickly get that $200+ mil extension he's going to need to pitch lights out. Him trying to full time DH is just distracting from that.
    Interesting, so here are two pitchers who would love to hit every day but both play in the NL where its not an option. Joe did not even use Jake when he started all righties and had no option when they put a lefty in the game. Even more of a reason he plays in the AL.
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  13. #56
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Those guys are pitchers who like hitting. It has little to do with ability to do so vs they are pitchers first.

    It takes time and dedication to be a everyday hitter at the major league level. Just the same dedication goes into pitching and conditioning for it.

    I honesty believe it is not possible to be a two way star myself. But I also believe that he has been doing it in Japan and figures it translates over

  14. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    I get how hitting is a distraction to pitching. But this is his situation and honestly he has every team at his feet begging. He will get what he wants regardless of any common sense.

    I just see him following his heart and what happens happens. If team: A says you need to pitch and hitting maybe in a limited role. They shot themselves in the foot.

    Best situation is: want to DH. You got it. You want Yu. Got it. Anything else sir.
    But you're assuming he wants to hit that much that it will override other factors when I don't particularly think that is the case. I see it more in the vein of Rizzo telling Maddon daily he can lead off. It's great that a player wants to challenge themselves but at the end of the day it's not about the player it's about the team. And while I'm not suggesting Ohtani will make it about himself, if he does that's the mark of an incredibly selfish person. If he were to do that do you really want that guy on your team?

    And frankly if his agent is doing his job then he shouldn't want Ohtani to hit either. Whatever he may do with a bat is not going to be as valuable as his ceiling as a pitcher. If he's a better than league average hitter he maybe gets $100 mil. If he's an ace caliber pitcher he easily gets $200 mil at his age and might approach $250 or maybe even $300 mil.

    Again I don't know his thought process any better than you do but if a team is literally offering me anything I want that team seems fairly desperate and would turn me off. It's one thing if it's money but if a team is willing to throw the 24 other players on the active roster under a bus just to have me I don't want to be on that team.

  15. #58
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    sure seems like everyone is holding out on Jake until they see who gets this guy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by anotheridiot View Post
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    sure seems like everyone is holding out on Jake until they see who gets this guy.
    Think it's more a winter meetings thing. Big deals really don't happen this early most years. And we're only like 2 weeks until the winter meetings. Given how cold the hot stove has been I think the winter meetings could get crazy.

  17. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by anotheridiot View Post
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    sure seems like everyone is holding out on Jake until they see who gets this guy.
    Jake has his market and he has been talked to. Yu also has been tied to a few teams. But the upper tier has been stalled due to this.

    The Cubs not making a move is a little shocking due to them needing 2 SP. if it was just 1 I could see holding a rotation spot open. But even then they need a closer and a set up then 2 SP. it really feels like they are stalling due to wanting to address via trade vs F/A then use F/A to back fill.

  18. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by beckdawg View Post
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    But you're assuming he wants to hit that much that it will override other factors when I don't particularly think that is the case. I see it more in the vein of Rizzo telling Maddon daily he can lead off. It's great that a player wants to challenge themselves but at the end of the day it's not about the player it's about the team. And while I'm not suggesting Ohtani will make it about himself, if he does that's the mark of an incredibly selfish person. If he were to do that do you really want that guy on your team?

    And frankly if his agent is doing his job then he shouldn't want Ohtani to hit either. Whatever he may do with a bat is not going to be as valuable as his ceiling as a pitcher. If he's a better than league average hitter he maybe gets $100 mil. If he's an ace caliber pitcher he easily gets $200 mil at his age and might approach $250 or maybe even $300 mil.

    Again I don't know his thought process any better than you do but if a team is literally offering me anything I want that team seems fairly desperate and would turn me off. It's one thing if it's money but if a team is willing to throw the 24 other players on the active roster under a bus just to have me I don't want to be on that team.
    It really is not about tossing a team under the bus just like that article posted that Minn has a need for a DH and 2 SP. They can fill those 3 spots with 2 players. At that point they need to have a bat first player that can DH when needed. Say a extra corner OF that you can DH when needed. Which lessens the load on Ohtani

  19. #62
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beckdawg View Post
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    Think it's more a winter meetings thing. Big deals really don't happen this early most years. And we're only like 2 weeks until the winter meetings. Given how cold the hot stove has been I think the winter meetings could get crazy.
    I was kinda feeling the same way about the meetings. But if I recall most deals are pounded out in the meetings as F/A are being talked to by many teams in the meetings and the final decision normally happens towards Xmas.

    But I wouldnít be shocked with a flurry starting Jan 2 to Feb with this delay going on. I can see some trades done in the meetings as those talks started in the GM meetings.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    It really is not about tossing a team under the bus just like that article posted that Minn has a need for a DH and 2 SP. They can fill those 3 spots with 2 players. At that point they need to have a bat first player that can DH when needed. Say a extra corner OF that you can DH when needed. Which lessens the load on Ohtani
    You're not filling 3 spots with 2 players though because Ohtani isn't going to be a full time dh. Like this isn't even a debate. Absolute best case as I mentioned is he'd start 60% of the time as a DH. That means you're either doing one of two things. Either A) you're finding some scrub who's not good enough to be a full time dh and using him 40% of the time or B) you're finding someone who is good enough to DH regularly and limiting his playing time. That's throwing a guy under the bus. Ohtani has 1170 PAs in the last 5 years against inferior pitching comparable to MLB pitching. If you're even a guy in AAA how do you not see that as disrespectful to hand a guy a job you have worked your ass off for?

    And the thing is if he's only had ~1200 PAs in the past 5 years he's going to have major holes in his swing that MLB pitching will exploit. He just will. Look at how Schwarber hit as a amateur and in the minors and look what's happened when he finally reached the majors. You think that's just Schwarber? Look at Bryant's K rate his first year in the majors and he even had more prep time than Schwarber. Look at Rizzo's first 3 years. MLB pitching find and expose flaws in your game and Ohtani hasn't even hit enough to find stuff most minor league players will fix in A+/AA.

    That's why this hitting shit is just way over hyped. Japanesse hitter routinely see their average drop 50-70 points from foreign ball to MLB. For example, Nori Aoki was a career .329/.402/.454 in Japan and is a career .285/.350/.387 hitter in the majors. Kazuo Matsui was a career .291/.344/.451 hitter in japan and a MLB .267/.321/.380 hitter. Ichiro was a career was a career .353/.421/.522 hitter in japan and .312/.355/.403 in the majors. Fukudome was was a career .293/.385/.504 in japan and .258/.359/.395 in the majors. Munenori Kawasaki hit .292/.344/.376 in japan and .237/.320/.289 in the majors. And obviously all of those guys were full time hitters. Ohtani is a career .286/.358/.500 hitter in japan. Realistically you're likely talking about a .230-.240 hitter with .300-.310 OBP and probably .400-.410 SLG. Kendrys Morales last year hit .250/.308/.445 as a DH and was good for a -0.6 wins.

    Long story short if you want to make the argument for using him at DH have at it but it's incredibly foolish in my opinion. As I have repeatedly stated, if he really enjoys hitting he should go to an NL team. If you have a pitcher who hits .230/.300/.400 you're thrilled. If you have a DH do that you're looking for a new DH.

  21. #64
    Senior Member DanTown's Avatar
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    I still think the Cubs (or any team) would get more value out of letting him play in the OF on his side day and then having him pitch every sixth day than some team saying he's an everyday player who either pitches or hits. Considering the uptick in innings played a year, the amount of travel, the stress of being Otani, I can't imagine he wants to play everyday.

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    Honestly this circus show needs to be put to bed. It is stalling the off season.

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    I don't remember where I read it but something I was reading brought up an interesting point about the cubs and a potential pitch to Ohtani. As a young pitcher the obvious worry is injury. And considering he spent a lot of time last year out you have to imagine that is something that while not a top priority will be something on his mind. The cubs as an organization over the past several years have been one of the healthier teams. A lot of that likely has to do with Maddon's approach of pulling off the accelerator a bit.

    But kind of in tandem with what dan was saying that is a pretty interesting pitch I think though less about him necessarily playing the field. The cubs as a team are committed to that idea of Monty as a 6th starter to spot start. And Japanesse pitchers often have some bit of trouble adjusting to the different rotation. You could effectively carry two long guys in Monty and someone like him to give you spot starts from the bullpen and keep Ohtani fresh as needed. He's only ever thrown a max of 160.2 innings. If he were to do that in the majors you'd need ~10 starts out of Monty/whoever.

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