Otani posted, will be in MLB in 2018

beckdawg

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dbacks are out, joining a's, yanks, mets, brewers, pirates, twins, red sox #Ohtani
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pirates are out on ohtani. field remains west coast heavy, though there may be an exception or 2.
 

CSF77

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6:38pm: The Rays, Cardinals and White Sox are out, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (all Twitter links).
 

beckdawg

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sources: dodgers are believed to remain alive in ohtani hunt (unconfirmed). however, word is they are not necessarily seen as a favorite.
 

beckdawg

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These figures might be out of date but of the teams not "out" yet you have

As of nov 8th https://sports.yahoo.com/rangers-can-offer-shohei-otani-money-not-much-may-think-230357634.html
Texas Rangers — $3,535,000
Seattle Mariners — $1,570,500
Chicago Cubs – $300,000
Los Angeles Dodgers – $300,000
San Diego Padres – $300,000
San Francisco Giants – $300,000
Los Angeles Angels — $150,000

So unless he really does wanna go to Texas or Seattle money doesn't appear to be a factor what so ever.

Edit: removed nats and braves. Edit 2: removed all non west coast teams save for cubs/rangers.
 

beckdawg

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The Nationals have been told they are out of the running for Shohei Ohtani, according to a person familiar. No surprise there.

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To no one's surprise, the #Braves are out on Shohei Otani. The #Pirates are out even though they had the fourth biggest bonus pool at $2,266,750. While the #Rays are also out, they do have Brendan McKay in the pipeline. He's Louisville's Babe Ruth
 

beckdawg

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So, interesting note... of the remaining teams that aren't "out" you have Texas, Seattle, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, Detroit, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland as the only AL teams left. Think Baltimore, KC, Detroit and Cleveland are all safe no's as well though i've not see that reported yet. That would just leave you with Texas, Seattle, Houston and the Angels as the only teams left with a DH. And in the case of the Angels/M's think there's a far more obvious reason they are around. Both are west coast teams with large asian populations. Think that fairly well confirms what I've been saying for awhile about him not really caring about DH.

Another take I have on this is that it's interesting the cubs aren't out. Seems fairly obvious that location was his #1 priority. And I mean it could still be but if not being on the west coast doesn't matter to him I feel like the cubs have a fairly solid shot of landing him. Outside of the dodgers and houston(who i haven't seen word on one way or another) there really isn't a better win now fit. The 3 AL west teams remaining outside of houston(LAA/SEA/TEX) all feel like similar middling teams with very meh farm system. SD has a great farm system but their two best players last year were Chacin(FA) and Richards(34). He'd literally be the start of their rebuild in the majors. And as for SF, I could see that happening but they're weird in their own right. A playoff team in 2016 that wins 64 games the following year and who has next to nothing left in their farm and who is trying to trade what is left for stanton.

I guess what i'm saying here is I like the cubs chances. To me they have to out sell the west coast. If they do that they have a very good shot. I think the dodgers with their myriad of quality pitching is going to hurt them a bit as i've mentioned before. It's not as easy as say Houston or Chicago where you know you can plug his arm without worry of anyone else on the 40 man. I mean certainly if the dodgers could convince him to sign they would find a way but they would have to literally trade 3-4 guys to make room. If I'm his agent I want him going where he has a clear path to playing. And while houston obviously won the WS, that feels like a weird place culturally for him. IDK maybe i'm off base there as texas got Darvish but that wouldn't be my first guess(either texas team).
 

beckdawg

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8:59pm: The Rangers and Cubs will both meet with Ohtani, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (Twitter link), and they’re also the only two non-West Coast teams who appear to still be alive in the candidate process. The Rangers, Grant notes, have yet to comment on their status one way or the other.
 

CSF77

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Seattle
San Diego
Dodgers: less of a chance
Angels: not much said on them.
Frisco: honestly think they are outsiders also

Cubs
Rangers

Fact they are in but oddballs is intriguing. Ohtani must really like the whole Cubs thing going on because big market. No DH. Etc. 300k offer. Honestly there is no reason why they were not face curbed with NYY and Bos off the bat. So the fact that they are the most odd ball in the he crowed makes them a personal fav choice of his.
 

beckdawg

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Seattle
San Diego
Dodgers: less of a chance
Angels: not much said on them.
Frisco: honestly think they are outsiders also

Cubs
Rangers

Fact they are in but oddballs is intriguing. Ohtani must really like the whole Cubs thing going on because big market. No DH. Etc. 300k offer. Honestly there is no reason why they were not face curbed with NYY and Bos off the bat. So the fact that they are the most odd ball in the he crowed makes them a personal fav choice of his.

Like I said I don't think DH really matters. Of the remaining teams, Texas has the most money. You could argue that plus their past with Darvish is why they remain not the DH. Seattle is obviously a big asian culture city. The only other AL team is the Angels and I'm not 100% they are in just people assume they will be because west coast and all. In terms of money, only Seattle and Texas can offer more than $300k. So clearly that wasn't something he's super focused on either.

If I had to guess the clear #1 priority was being on the west coast. That would essentially answer 70% of the list. The odd balls are Texas and the cubs. Given texas can offer the most money, their history with Darvish and the fact they've been scouting him forever they do make sense to be on the list. As for the cubs, if I had to give a reason I'd essentially say theo/jed and maddon plus a giant obvious need. Lots of teams need him so it's not entirely that but the fact of the matter is the cubs have a ridiculous amount of young hitting talent but no clear "guy" as an ace and the pitching they do have is generally older. If you're Ohtani and you want to be "the guy" it's tailor made. On top of that the front office is ridiculously good at selling. They got Heyward and Lester who weren't obvious signs.

And what they can sell is essentially Maddon. Maddon catches a lot of shit from fans for moves they dislike but players love him. You simply can't buy that all of the time. And the fact that Maddon is willing to do unique things with unique guys(batting rizzo lead off, batting pitcher 8th, playing wood in LF....etc) would seem clearly to play to Ohtani's strengths. I'd be curious to know if the cubs asked Koji and or Munenori Kawasaki to chime in on their pitch(or if they will in their meeting). Both having played for the cubs the past 2 years would be able to give Ohtani an idea of the pros/cons for someone used to the japanese way of life.

Regardless, the fact there's a 1 in 7 or so shot of them landing him is a positive sign.
 

beckdawg

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David Kaplan

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MLB executive just told me that Theo and Jed are pulling out all of the stops to impress Ohtani. “Theo and Jed are being incredibly creative with their pitch. They’ve thought of everything. And I mean everything. Still going to be tough to land him but they are in there hard.”
 

CSF77

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Well had to rank it:

1: Cubs
2: Seattle
3: Rangers
4: SFG
5: LAD
6: LAA
7: SD

LA just feels too over the top. Not really ideal for a low key guy

SD is in limbo. They are going nowhere and honestly shouldn’t be on the list.

SFG Has a decent shot but I feel that last year hurts them.

Rangers/Cubs and Seattle are all close IMO. Seattle is the best fit in general and makes the most sense. Rangers I feel is the money and privious scouting. Cubs because they have the ability to win now and can win for a long time

It should be Seattle’s to loose but the fact the Cubs are a oddball makes them the fav imo
 

beckdawg

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Well had to rank it:

1: Cubs
2: Seattle
3: Rangers
4: SFG
5: LAD
6: LAA
7: SD

LA just feels too over the top. Not really ideal for a low key guy

SD is in limbo. They are going nowhere and honestly shouldn’t be on the list.

SFG Has a decent shot but I feel that last year hurts them.

Rangers/Cubs and Seattle are all close IMO. Seattle is the best fit in general and makes the most sense. Rangers I feel is the money and privious scouting. Cubs because they have the ability to win now and can win for a long time

It should be Seattle’s to loose but the fact the Cubs are a oddball makes them the fav imo

Think SF needs to be higher. I'm not sure which of them and Seattle i would favor. Probably SF because while they were terrible last year you put Bumgarner and Ohtani together and suddenly that's a very interesting team. So I'd probably put SF/Seattle 1/2 and cubs 3. I feel like if he's gone that heavy on west coast teams you need to favor them. I have 0 idea how to evaluate the 2 LA's and SD. I think you could make the case for them being anywhere on this spectrum in the case of the dodgers. Angels feels weird. SD as well.

That being said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the cubs land him. He's really a perfect fit for them and they would appear to be a very good fit for him save for the fact they aren't on the west coast. But I mean that in of itself is kind of strange to me. Maybe someone can spark a few ideas for me here but I'm not sure i entirely get the appeal. Like if it's just a cultural thing where you want asian representation in the community then sure i get wanting the west coast. But if not that then I'm not sure i get it.
 

TL1961

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The Cubs are not on the west coast.

The Cubs are not small market.

The Cubs can't let him DH.

Yet, somehow, they remain alive.

Hmmmmm.
 

brett05

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Just remember second place is just first loser.
 

chibears55

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The Cubs are not on the west coast.

The Cubs are not small market.

The Cubs can't let him DH.

Yet, somehow, they remain alive.

Hmmmmm.
I agree...

Something clicking his interest there....

Maybe Kawasaki put in the good word for the cubs

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

beckdawg

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though would you want to know first or last? Seems first might be the most compassionate.

Well if you're legit asking this and not just being playful the way I look at it is this. It's clear he favors the west coast. So the fact that a FA of his caliber is even considering the cubs is interesting. Admittedly I'm apparently a fair bit different than most sports fans but to me wins and losses aren't zero sum games. The term participation trophy gets thrown around a lot these days by people my age or old but I truly believe if you put your best foot forward and come up second there's no shame in that.

As that pertains to Ohtani, one of 3 things happens. A) he goes to one of the 5 west coast teams in which case i mean what can you really do if you're the cubs? B) he goes to the rangers because presumably they offer him $3.5 mil that no one else can offer. If that happens.... again, what can you do? Obviously if the cubs had known he'd be available during this period they may have adjusted their IFA spending in 2015 but you couldn't have know. C) The cubs out sell in their presentation options A and B.

If I had to hazard a guess, I think it's going to be fairly easy to argue against the rangers. They were a middling team that finished 23! games back of the astros last year. They had 6 hitters over 2 wins(Andrus, Beltre, Gallo, Chirinos, DeShields and CarGo) and of the remaining guys only Mazara is really intriguing. Maybe you argue Profar is but think that's a stretch at this point. They had Darvish as a pitcher over 2 wins but emphasis on had. Beltre is 39! and a FA after 2018. Andrus is there for the long haul(signed thru 2022). Chirinos is 34 and signed for 2 more years assuming they pick up his option. CarGo is a FA this year. They also have Hamels for another two years but at 34 doubt you're expecting too much there. So realistically speaking their core is Andrus, Gallo, Mazara and DeShields. Leody Taveras and Willie Calhoun are decent prospect but neither is likely better than say Happ is.

If you're the cubs I think selling against that is a pretty simple argument. Not one of those players is Kris Bryant. Not one of those players is Anthony Rizzo. Hell I'd probably take Contreras over any one of those players given how hard it is to find a good catcher these days. So if he goes to Texas think the only reason is money. But clearly money doesn't appear to be a high priority for him given the yankees didn't even make the cut and given the majority of the 7 remaining teams can only offer him $300k.

So from my vantage point it comes down to how do you outsell the west coast. My only answer to that is you don't. You sell what you offer that none of those 5 west coast teams can. I've seen some talk of them potentially offering to run a 6 man rotation like they do in japan. Most teams aren't going to do that but frankly the cubs basically were doing that last year anyways. You also can sell him on Maddon doing weird Maddon things like playing a reliever in LF or batting Rizzo lead off. You sell him on the culture Maddon has brought to the cubs(post game victory celebrations and fun ideology).

Ultimately if that doesn't work then it doesn't work but I'd be rather surprised if he ends up in Texas. In my eyes it's either the best west coast team that fits him or the cubs.
 

brett05

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I wasn't being playful, just pointing things out when folks might be missing the trees thru the forest.

What is he really interested in? Guesses is all that can be made. Texas could be strong thanks to Darvish. Weak as you say as their quality of a core is sub par.
The Cubs are obviously still a power player but he could also see a the lack of pitching as well as the future high salaries there.

I think it's a West Coast team. I think he wants the home town folks a chance to watch him play on the biggest stages. None bigger than the LA market if location was a choice which it certainly looks like it will be.

I don't think money plays a single dollar into it. His money is going to be so huge off the field and back home especially that the difference between 300K and 3.3 million will be laughable.

My point is that folks reading into the perceived finalists are just that, perception. Unless his agent comes out and identifies finalists, no one can say otherwise.

In reality I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's angling for some sort of package deal with Yu. Two for one so to speak. I think any team that would offer that could land him just like that.
 

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