Bearshomer
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11 of the last 16 Super Bowls have been won by a HC on his second NFL team. Belichick (x5), Caroll, Coughlin (x2), Dungy, Gruden, and Kubiak.
The other five coaches are Cowher (on his 14th season when he won, not a young coach or one many would have stuck with), McCarthy (incompetent and inherited two HoF QBs), Payton (incompetent and signed elite young QB), Tomlin (inherited HoF QB, HoF defense, super bowl winning staff), and Harbaugh who actually did it without a franchise QB (but did have benefit of going to good organization that was usually competitive and even won a SB 8 years prior).
Unless they inherit a HoF QB, the hotshot coordinator rarely ever does anything in the postseason, and doesn’t typically hold down the job for long. The young, innovative, QB guru, with good connections around the league almost never exists, and when he does he is probably locked up elsewhere. It is tempting to go in the opposite direction because Fox was supposed to perhaps be similar to that (as he arguably was for Denver), but hiring somebody with experience still has the most proven track record. To bring the highest chance of both stability and a chance to contend, we should hire somebody with experience on one team prior, who had general success at times. The six guys who won 11/16 Super Bowls on their second team all had success elsewhere but failed to win the SB ultimately costing them their job (except Gruden who was traded). We should target somebody along those lines. 2013 would have been the perfect year with Reid and Arians available to replace Lovie, but Emery blew it.
So, who could we go for this year who might fit the mold? I would say Gase and Harbaugh. Gase somehow started 14-6 with one of the worst teams in football before they got exposed. He also has the balls to gamble in obvious situations, has his offenses play excellent situational football from 2013-16, and has connections to the current team (and NFL) that could ease a transition (not needing to get rid of Fangio for example). Harbaugh meanwhile had obvious success with one of the best starts to a career in NFL history, and if nothing else the Fangio connection if we want to keep him at the end of the year.
The other five coaches are Cowher (on his 14th season when he won, not a young coach or one many would have stuck with), McCarthy (incompetent and inherited two HoF QBs), Payton (incompetent and signed elite young QB), Tomlin (inherited HoF QB, HoF defense, super bowl winning staff), and Harbaugh who actually did it without a franchise QB (but did have benefit of going to good organization that was usually competitive and even won a SB 8 years prior).
Unless they inherit a HoF QB, the hotshot coordinator rarely ever does anything in the postseason, and doesn’t typically hold down the job for long. The young, innovative, QB guru, with good connections around the league almost never exists, and when he does he is probably locked up elsewhere. It is tempting to go in the opposite direction because Fox was supposed to perhaps be similar to that (as he arguably was for Denver), but hiring somebody with experience still has the most proven track record. To bring the highest chance of both stability and a chance to contend, we should hire somebody with experience on one team prior, who had general success at times. The six guys who won 11/16 Super Bowls on their second team all had success elsewhere but failed to win the SB ultimately costing them their job (except Gruden who was traded). We should target somebody along those lines. 2013 would have been the perfect year with Reid and Arians available to replace Lovie, but Emery blew it.
So, who could we go for this year who might fit the mold? I would say Gase and Harbaugh. Gase somehow started 14-6 with one of the worst teams in football before they got exposed. He also has the balls to gamble in obvious situations, has his offenses play excellent situational football from 2013-16, and has connections to the current team (and NFL) that could ease a transition (not needing to get rid of Fangio for example). Harbaugh meanwhile had obvious success with one of the best starts to a career in NFL history, and if nothing else the Fangio connection if we want to keep him at the end of the year.
