TL1961
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2017 8W 15L 4.69ERA! Oh goodie [emoji53]Discuss
2017 8W 15L 4.69ERA! Oh goodie [emoji53]
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Interesting.His 2.57 ERA away from Coors the last two years is tied with Strasburg for 2nd best road ERA in the league behind some guy named Kershaw.
I’m ok with him as a 5. A bit long in a deal IMO though. I see Alzolay as 2 years out at most and he could be used to net another in a trade if they miss out on Ohtani.
I still see them as a underdog in the sweepstakes based off of location and desire for a small market. So most likely they will have to prepare to deal in the meetings. And I see Happ and Alzolay as their chips.
I like him better than cobb. He's an elite ground ball guy. His curve and cutter were pretty good for him last year. And unlike cobb he doesn't cost you IFA money/draft pick. 3 years is a little longer than I like but $12 mil AAV isn't that bad for a #5 starter with some upside.
Cobb has a 3.68 career FIP and Chatwood’s is 4.94. Cobb pitched 179 innings in 2017 and Chatwood has never pitched more than 158. Cobb had a 2.4 WAR in 2017 Chatwood has 5 for his CAREER. There is no way he is better than Cobb. None.
I wouldn't worry too much about Alzolay. To start with he could very realistically end up being a trade piece. For another, if it gets to the point where he is still around and beating on the door if you end up having "too much" pitching someone else is always in need. For example let's say Alzolay hangs around in AA for the next 1.5 or so years. You'd then have Chatwood at like 1.5 years at $18 mil which is pretty attractive. Someone would give you something decent for that if again he is decent. If he's just bad, cutting him after year 2 isn't a big deal either.
These kids have to prove themselves all of the time and honestly there is no one guaranteed a rotation spot in the pipeline. They have to take the job and run with it.
That's just like... your opinion man. In all seriousness, the reason I don't like cobb is because he only threw 2 effective pitches the past 2 years. And you can certainly cite Cobb's pre-injury numbers but I feel like you're missing the trees. The reason i like this move better is A) a second round pick for a team with a depleted farm system is a big deal not to mention the $500k in IFA money can make a difference. B) I don't think Cobb's underlying numbers are anywhere as good as his results. He had a 6.42 k/9 last year and a 2.21 BB/9 with a really bad soft/hard contact rate. Think his soft contact rate was top 5 worst and his hard contact rate was basically the same. C) Cobb is likely to cost more money.
So we're not even talking apples to apples here.
I get the Cobb money thing but I don’t think Chatwood is even an upgrade from Lackey at 5,or at least not much of one. His FIP in 2017 was 4.94 to Lackey’s 5.30and when Lackey was effective in 2016 his FIP was 3.81.plus it’s not like this is a cheap deal, it’s not expensive but it isn’t nothing.
Jesse Rogers
✔
@ESPNChiCubs
Theo said they've been after Chatwood for years: "His name has popped up in trade attempts."
Well given i know you're one of the people who is willing to have a legit conversation about these type of things I'll engage. First thing I'll point you towards is this. So if you're arguing Chatwood doesn't have results then sure. Cobb has produced better results. But I think you can often get sucked into previous results too far. With regard to Cobb my personal feeling is he's just not the same pitcher he was pre-injury and the 2 pitch pitcher he was post injury has dangerously scary underlying numbers. If you look at his pitch value, pre injury his change up had 4 straight seasons over 1.31. Being over 1 is a really good value. The past 2 years that change up has been -0.24 and -1.25. And the thing is that change up was his out pitch. In the 4 years prior to getting hurt his fastball value was -0.38, -0.60, 0.49 and -0.38. In other words it routinely was below average but not terribly bad. His curve all pre injury was 0.52, -0.17, 0.18 and -0.12. In other words, average or slightly above. The past two years those pitches have been -3.56/0.48 on the fastball and -1.35/0.62 on his curve and obviously his change up MASSIVELY declined. When you add that to the fact he's basically lost a lot in terms of hard/soft contact rate it all makes sense. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff anymore so when players do make contact they CRUSH him.
Now sure maybe you argue it's only been a year and maybe that change up comes back. But I can just as easily suggest what if his fastball/curve get worse? They've never been particularly good pitches to begin with and if they get worse you could very quickly run into a guy who just can't get players out and who gets crushed in the zone.
On Chatwood, I think he's a pure upside play. First of all, he's a curve ball pitcher and coors is notoriously difficult on curve ball pitchers. My biggest worry with his is health but let's be real here, it's not like Cobb has a clean history himself. And honestly the cubs have already shown the willingness to use a 6th starter more than other teams. So, you can limit some of that exposure on Chatwood. We'll see what happens on Ohtani but you could realistically have Monty throw 10-15 starts and cut away 5-8 starts from Ohtani/Chatwood if they land Ohtani.
And of course then we're talking money. It's fairly well assumed given the amount of interest cobb seems to be generating he probably gets at least 4/$60 and maybe 5 years at $16+ mil. Aside from the draft pick penalty that's a lot more money for a guy who has his own large set of questions. I just think Chatwood at $12 mil for 3 years is a reasonable gamble. His pitches have been better than his results. He's a guy who's been stuck in Coors which never helps matters. And he's an extreme ground ball guy going to the best defense in baseball. Is he going to win a cy young with the cubs? No but think you're underselling his potential.