The case against a first round WR

Dragon Slayer · Dec 13, 2017

A total of 41 WRs have been taken in the first round over the past 11 drafts. I have bolded the players I feel are legit WR1 weapons and a player that you can build your franchise around. I came up with 9. That’s 9 players in the last 11 NFL drafts who are franchise WRs. I don't like our odds of drafting one of these players in the first of this years draft. I left out some borderline players (mainly from the 2014 draft) and the 2016/2017 draft may be to early to tell. I italicized some borderline WR1s for Honorable mention, but I didn't feel they were true game changers. (Bowe, Crabtree, Cooks, Maclin, Kelvin).

I keep seeing Calvin Ridley’s name floating around for the upcoming draft and I know every draft/player is different but based on the history I do not feel like it will be in the Bears best interest to take a swing at a WR. There isn’t a WR in the 2018 draft that really stands out, imo and is worthy of a likely top 10 pick. The position should be addressed in FA, then build upon it in rounds 2-4.

*Interesting note that I found. AJ Jenkins is currently the only other WR drafted since 2007 that has been a larger bust then Kevin White in terms of production.

2007 (in order of draft position)

Calvin Johnson – 731 catches, 11,619 yards, 83 TDs
Ted Ginn Jr – 355 catches, 4,963 yards, 28 TDs
Dwayne Bowe – 537 catches, 7208 yards, 44 TDs
Robert Meachem – 178 catches, 2914 yards, 27 TDs
Craig Davis – 51 catches, 558 yards, 2 TDs
Anthony Gonzalez – 99 catches, 1307 yards, 7 TDs

2008

No WRs selected in the first round. Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson were taken in the 2nd.

2009

Darrius Heyward-Bey – 200 catches, 2,885 yards, 16 TDs
Michael Crabtree – 570 catches, 6,814 yards, 49 TDs
Jeremy Maclin – 513 catches, 6,813 yards, 49 TDs
Percy Harvin – 353 catches, 4,026 yards, 22 TDs
Hakeem Nicks – 356 catches, 5,081 yards, 31 TDs
Kenny Britt – 327 catches, 5,114 yards, 32 TDs

2010

Demaryius Thomas – 614 catches, 8,475 yards, 56 TDs
Dez Bryant – 523 catches, 7,333 yards, 73 TDs

2011

AJ Green – 546 catches, 8,085 yards, 57 TDs
Julio Jones – 570 catches, 8,771 yards, 43 TDs
Jonathan Baldwin – 44 catches, 607 yards, 2 TDs

2012

Justin Blackmon – 93 catches, 1,280 yards, 6 TDs
Michael Floyd – 255 catches, 3,859 yards, 24 TDs
Kendall Wright – 323 catches, 3,721 yards, 19 TDs
AJ Jenkins – 17 catches, 223 yards, 0 TDs

2013

DeAndre Hopkins – 405 catches, 5,720 yards, 34 TDs
Cordarrelle Patterson – 160 catches, 1,607 yards, 7 TDs

2014

Sammy Watkins – 187 catches, 3,008 yards, 24 TDs
Mike Evans – 293 catches, 4,338 yards, 31 TDs
Odell Beckham – 313 catches, 4,424 yards, 38 TDs
Brandin Cooks – 269 catches, 3,785 yards, 25 TDs
Kelvin Benjamin – 175 catches, 2,524 yards, 19 TDs

2015

Amari Cooper – 197 catches, 2,722 yards, 16 TDs
Kevin White – 21 catches, 193 yards, 0 TDs
DeVante Parker – 122 catches, 1,692 yards, 8 TDs
Nelson Agholor – 107 catches, 1,311 yards, 10 TDs
Breshad Perriman – 40 catches, 553 yards, 3 TDs
Phillip Dorsett – 58 catches, 893 yards, 3 TDs

2016

Corey Coleman – 53 catches, 681 yards, 5 TDs
Will Fuller – 67 catches, 987 yards, 9 TDs
Josh Doctson – 29 catches, 454 yards, 5 TDs
Laquon Treadwell – 18 catches, 199 yards, 0 TDs

2017

Corey Davis – 25 catches, 256 yards, 0 TDs
Mike Williams – 10 catches, 87 yards, 0 TDs
John Ross – 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 TDs

Bears_804 · Dec 13, 2017

It's definitely a high risk to take a WR in the 1st, but the reward can be great. I don't know if I am up for the risk again. Kevin White hurt as a Bears fan.

xer0h0ur · Dec 13, 2017

This is for the most part a pointless thread. I can't remember anyone advocating for a first round wide receiver since the consensus so far has been there are no bonafide first round worthy receivers but there are a multitude of 2nd round and beyond receivers.

WindyCity · Dec 13, 2017

If I could have Ridley in the teens I would be okay with that.

But 1st round WRs bust more than most positions.

Mdbearz · Dec 13, 2017

Didn't Detroit take a WR high every year for like 5 years in a row?

I think Megatron was one of those years.

Hard to spend a first rounder on a WR, unless he is the consensus #1, like Amari Cooper when we took KW.

But just like QB and pass rusher, the only way you are going to get the best is to draft them high. Sure there are exceptions, but unlike RB, it is hard to find a legit #1 WR in any other round.

bufordht · Dec 13, 2017

I think Trubisky can be the kind of QB who throws guys open, finds the open read. I'd rather see them throw a lot of 2nd/3rd tier guys at the position and see what sticks. Spend the big resources on the OL/DL. I think keeping Trubisky upright with time to throw will pay off more than a big time WR. Not to mention the benefits to the running game. Obviously the next Julio would be nice but I think the next Kevin White would really hurt the team

Dragon Slayer · Dec 13, 2017

xer0h0ur said:
This is for the most part a pointless thread. I can't remember anyone advocating for a first round wide receiver since the consensus so far has been there are no bonafide first round worthy receivers but there are a multitude of 2nd round and beyond receivers.

http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/...ick-in-the-NFL-Draft-the-Chicago-Bears-select

There are people here that have said Ridley would be 'in play' at 8. WR is a hot topic just because it is our greatest need. I wanted to provide some context into why we should look the other way in the first round.

Thanks for your input though.

Visionman · Dec 13, 2017

bufordht said:
I think Trubisky can be the kind of QB who throws guys open, finds the open read. I'd rather see them throw a lot of 2nd/3rd tier guys at the position and see what sticks. Spend the big resources on the OL/DL. I think keeping Trubisky upright with time to throw will pay off more than a big time WR. Not to mention the benefits to the running game. Obviously the next Julio would be nice but I think the next Kevin White would really hurt the team

This.

We need more than scrubs at WR. But if Trubs is anything close to the QB we need him to be, we won't need one of those ultra-elite WRs to be effective. Our team identity still needs to be a strong run game and defense. Trubs is just icing on the cake....

Bearly · Dec 13, 2017

And why I don't like WRs in top 1/2 or more of one. I didn't hate the White pick but personally, I would have gone elsewhere at the time. Times are changing and they can be more influential than ever so I understand drafting one early in the current NFL but for me, there better not be other good options. Do you miss out on a Hopkins? You might but he went 27 and once you get in the mid 20s, exceptional prospect WRs and Gs become fair game for me. You are not passing on another position's top prospect there.

Jechang · Dec 13, 2017

should probably take into account shitty QB play on the teams that take some of these guys.

If you have a decent QB in place, I suspect the risk of drafting a WR high is much more reasonable.

xer0h0ur · Dec 13, 2017

HawkBear said:
http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/...ick-in-the-NFL-Draft-the-Chicago-Bears-select

There are people here that have said Ridley would be 'in play' at 8. WR is a hot topic just because it is our greatest need. I wanted to provide some context into why we should look the other way in the first round.

Thanks for your input though.

Sorry if I offended. I have a habit of using shitty wordings that come off dickish. I'm basically agreeing with you we shouldn't go first round on a wide receiver.

nc0gnet0 · Dec 13, 2017

HawkBear said:
A total of 41 WRs have been taken in the first round over the past 11 drafts. I have bolded the players I feel are legit WR1 weapons and a player that you can build your franchise around. I came up with 9. That’s 9 players in the last 11 NFL drafts who are franchise WRs. I don't like our odds of drafting one of these players in the first of this years draft. I left out some borderline players (mainly from the 2014 draft) and the 2016/2017 draft may be to early to tell. I italicized some borderline WR1s for Honorable mention, but I didn't feel they were true game changers. (Bowe, Crabtree, Cooks, Maclin, Kelvin).

I keep seeing Calvin Ridley’s name floating around for the upcoming draft and I know every draft/player is different but based on the history I do not feel like it will be in the Bears best interest to take a swing at a WR. There isn’t a WR in the 2018 draft that really stands out, imo and is worthy of a likely top 10 pick. The position should be addressed in FA, then build upon it in rounds 2-4.

*Interesting note that I found. AJ Jenkins is currently the only other WR drafted since 2007 that has been a larger bust then Kevin White in terms of production.

2007 (in order of draft position)

Calvin Johnson – 731 catches, 11,619 yards, 83 TDs
Ted Ginn Jr – 355 catches, 4,963 yards, 28 TDs
Dwayne Bowe – 537 catches, 7208 yards, 44 TDs
Robert Meachem – 178 catches, 2914 yards, 27 TDs
Craig Davis – 51 catches, 558 yards, 2 TDs
Anthony Gonzalez – 99 catches, 1307 yards, 7 TDs

2008

No WRs selected in the first round. Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson were taken in the 2nd.

2009

Darrius Heyward-Bey – 200 catches, 2,885 yards, 16 TDs
Michael Crabtree – 570 catches, 6,814 yards, 49 TDs
Jeremy Maclin – 513 catches, 6,813 yards, 49 TDs
Percy Harvin – 353 catches, 4,026 yards, 22 TDs
Hakeem Nicks – 356 catches, 5,081 yards, 31 TDs
Kenny Britt – 327 catches, 5,114 yards, 32 TDs

2010

Demaryius Thomas – 614 catches, 8,475 yards, 56 TDs
Dez Bryant – 523 catches, 7,333 yards, 73 TDs

2011

AJ Green – 546 catches, 8,085 yards, 57 TDs
Julio Jones – 570 catches, 8,771 yards, 43 TDs
Jonathan Baldwin – 44 catches, 607 yards, 2 TDs

2012

Justin Blackmon – 93 catches, 1,280 yards, 6 TDs
Michael Floyd – 255 catches, 3,859 yards, 24 TDs
Kendall Wright – 323 catches, 3,721 yards, 19 TDs
AJ Jenkins – 17 catches, 223 yards, 0 TDs

2013

DeAndre Hopkins – 405 catches, 5,720 yards, 34 TDs
Cordarrelle Patterson – 160 catches, 1,607 yards, 7 TDs

2014

Sammy Watkins – 187 catches, 3,008 yards, 24 TDs
Mike Evans – 293 catches, 4,338 yards, 31 TDs
Odell Beckham – 313 catches, 4,424 yards, 38 TDs
Brandin Cooks – 269 catches, 3,785 yards, 25 TDs
Kelvin Benjamin – 175 catches, 2,524 yards, 19 TDs

2015

Amari Cooper – 197 catches, 2,722 yards, 16 TDs
Kevin White – 21 catches, 193 yards, 0 TDs
DeVante Parker – 122 catches, 1,692 yards, 8 TDs
Nelson Agholor – 107 catches, 1,311 yards, 10 TDs
Breshad Perriman – 40 catches, 553 yards, 3 TDs
Phillip Dorsett – 58 catches, 893 yards, 3 TDs

2016

Corey Coleman – 53 catches, 681 yards, 5 TDs
Will Fuller – 67 catches, 987 yards, 9 TDs
Josh Doctson – 29 catches, 454 yards, 5 TDs
Laquon Treadwell – 18 catches, 199 yards, 0 TDs

2017

Corey Davis – 25 catches, 256 yards, 0 TDs
Mike Williams – 10 catches, 87 yards, 0 TDs
John Ross – 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 TDs

A few things wrong with your assessment. There is a difference between a "legit" #1 WR. and a future HOF WR. A couple of those not bolded are legit number 1's. Second, tossing in 2016 and 2017 scews the data set. You don't know if any of those will be #1's or not. Corey Davis for example, was hurt a good portion of this year and did not play several games.

Eliminating 2016 and 2017, not being quite as strict on the definition, your more likely to come up with 15 of 34 (give or take). I am not so sure that is that significant of a risk over any other given position tbh.

Now, I could go along with your assessment (bolded) had the criteria been more along the lines of Pro-bowl worthy talent taken with the first ten picks of the first round, but that reduces your fail pool quite a bit.

Teddy KGB · Dec 13, 2017

I think I remember reading something one time that in draft history for wide receivers in the first round that you want to take them in the middle of the first round. It's a weird statistical anomaly, but I want to say it was picks higher than 18 and lower than 28, had a very high rate of being busts, but pics in between that range for wide receivers had a very high success rate, the measure of success being not if they were pro bowlers but overall quality legitimate starting wide receivers.

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PeterMbangala · Dec 13, 2017

If we're at 8-10 then I don't want to take a WR there. I suspect Pace would have to be a bit gun shy after Kevin White anyway.

Assuming Chubb and Fitzpatrick are off the board by then, I'd be OK with trading back and taking someone in the 15-20 range but I'd be worried about it.

I think that list from the OP is a timely reminder of how these things work out. Remember that of those 9-12 receivers that turned into true WR1s, probably half of them were sure fire stars or as close to it as possible. Green, Jones, Megatron even Cooper to an extent were can't miss prospects. There are none of those in this draft.

nc0gnet0 · Dec 13, 2017

Mdbearz said:
Didn't Detroit take a WR high every year for like 5 years in a row?

I think Megatron was one of those years.

Hard to spend a first rounder on a WR, unless he is the consensus #1, like Amari Cooper when we took KW.

But just like QB and pass rusher, the only way you are going to get the best is to draft them high. Sure there are exceptions, but unlike RB, it is hard to find a legit #1 WR in any other round.

They took 4 WR's at number one over a period of 5 years. Calvin Johnson was not part of the consecutive three. Two of those were complete busts. One was arguably the greatest receiver ever to play the game, and another, Roy Williams, had fairly decent stats when at Detroit, before falling off a cliff after he got traded to Dallas for a number 1 pick (which made him a break even prospect at worse).

So, as laughable as it sounds, using Detroit as an example, you still have a 50% chance of hitting a true number 1 WR.

satchice · Dec 13, 2017

I think we need to find our guys in FA and in the 2nd round. There are a couple big WR that will be there in the 2nd round. The #1 priority should be to sign D Adams and we should be prepared to overpay. We also need to re-sign Inman and wright. Pace can easlly fix the WR group this offseason.

Depth
#1 Adams
#2 2nd/3rd round Rookie (Sutton Long shot, Cobbs Jr, E St Brown, Ateman) I would target the best route runner
#3 Slot Wright
#4 Inman

Dragon Slayer · Dec 13, 2017

nc0gnet0 said:
A few things wrong with your assessment. There is a difference between a "legit" #1 WR. and a future HOF WR. A couple of those not bolded are legit number 1's. Second, tossing in 2016 and 2017 scews the data set. You don't know if any of those will be #1's or not. Corey Davis for example, was hurt a good portion of this year and did not play several games.

Eliminating 2016 and 2017, not being quite as strict on the definition, your more likely to come up with 15 of 34 (give or take). I am not so sure that is that significant of a risk over any other given position tbh.

Now, I could go along with your assessment (bolded) had the criteria been more along the lines of Pro-bowl worthy talent taken with the first ten picks of the first round, but that reduces your fail pool quite a bit.

I'm with you on the 2016/2017 thing, but I wanted them included just to show who was drafted. If I had to guess, 1 turns out to be a WR1 while two others are serviceable. Yes, it's pretty subjective in determining what a WR1 is, but I think I hit them all. Since we're likely drafting in the top 10, there will be future pro bowlers on the board when we pick, I want one of those guys. I'm curious, who do you think are not bolded that are legit number 1s? I gave an Honorable mention for the borderline WR1/2 guys.

If I had more time, it would be interesting to look at all of the positions and their bust rate.

Noonthirtyjoe · Dec 13, 2017

KGB.. I think I remember reading something one time that in draft history for wide receivers in the first round that you want to take them in the middle of the first round. It's a weird statistical anomaly, but I want to say it was picks higher than 18 and lower than 28, had a very high rate of being busts, but pics in between that range for wide receivers had a very high success rate, the measure of success being not if they were pro bowlers but overall quality legitimate starting wide receivers.

I can tell you why on the anomaly. The later picks are the winning teams with QBs. The first 10 picks are the 10 worst teams.

Les Grossman · Dec 13, 2017

If we did go WR in the 1st, I’d hope it was mid round. Furthermore, I hope Pace focuses on WRs who are great route runners and who know how to get open, not raw athletes like White was. We need full route tree players.

Also, even drafting a ‘can’t miss’ guy like Amari Cooper isn’t bullet proof, look at his struggles this year.

Noonthirtyjoe · Dec 13, 2017

A good QB will make WRs better so I would be against using a 1st. We need a FA and Meridith back plus a 2nd rd or 3thd round rookie. We gotta put tires on our new Porsh .

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