Checking in on the Bears' draft position

A lot of people are wondering about the Bears current draft position. If the season ended at this moment right now, they'd draft #6, but as you can see below, they're likely to draft later than that.

1. Browns - 0-14
2. Giants - 2-12
3. Colts - 3-11
4. Texans (Browns have this pick) - 4-10
5. 49ers - 4-10
6. Bears - 4-10
7. Buccaneers - 4-9
8. Bengals - 5-9
9. Broncos - 5-9
10. Jets - 5-9
11. Cardinals - 6-8

The Bears will instantly fall to #7 after tonight, unless the Bucs pull off a stunning upset of the Falcons. So root hard for Tampa tonight.

The Bears are likely to beat the Browns and lose to the Vikings, finishing the season 5-11.

The absolute worst the Bears can pick under this scenario is #10


Let's look at the other 4-win teams: Assuming the Bears beat the Browns, the Bears need two of these three teams to win their last two games.

Texans last two games: Steelers, Colts---Colts are pretty shitty, but about the same level of shitty as the Texans. Root for the Texans in that game.

49ers last two games: Jaguars and Rams---They're likely to lose both of these, keeping them ahead of the Bears. Root that Jimmy G really will push them to victory and/or that the Rams have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Tampa's last three games: Falcons, Panthers and Saints----They're likely to lose all three of these games, pushing them ahead of the Bears if the Bears beat the Browns (It's worth noting Tampa's strength of schedule will actually be greater, so if the Bears can find a way to lose to the Browns, the Bears will actually pick earlier than the Bucs)


Can we agree that while no things are certain, the teams' final records will probably look like this?:


49ers - 4-12
Bucs - 4-12
Texans - 5-11
Bears - 5-11


Now let's look at the three teams that are one game behind the Bears and currently have 5 wins - We want all of these three teams to win out, because the Bears have the highest strength of schedule of all these teams. Every one of these teams that loses is a spot that hurts the Bears.

Bengals' last two games: Lions and Ravens - I don't see a win here, especially with how terrible Cincy looks currently. Mark the Bears down from #7 to #8

Broncos' last two games: Redskins and Chiefs - Root hard for the Broncos in that Redskins game, although I think Washington still wins. The Chiefs are going to play hard in Week 17 no matter what, it seems, so I wouldn't count on that. - Mark the Bears down from #8 to #9

Jets' last two games: Chargers and Patriots - I don't see them winning either game. I get the Chargers have had their troubles. They'll still beat the Jets - Mark the Bears down from #9 to #10.


I mean, who the hell really knows? It's the NFL. Any given Sunday and all that. But if you go through the process, #10 seems likely for the Bears unless they find a way to lose to the Browns or a few of these teams pull some fair upsets, either of which is possible.

I'm not rooting for the Bears to lose. I just know some people are wondering about the Bears' draft order.

I think 10 is fine, you can still pick up a sliding big name or the 1st or 2nd best OT or OLB.

I think we're going to need a new C or OG...an OLB...after Fuller leaves a CB.....what scares me most is Amos is playing well and I don't know if they demoted him because he wasn't flashing or if they used the veteran to light a fire under Amos but we've dumped Corey Graham before and the dude is still in the league 10 years later

How is this draft rated for ol, pass rusher, wr?

I wonder if the whole closet gets cleaned if the bears give the browns their first win? Better draft choice and hopefully better drafter?

Thanks for the update.

I guess 10 is ok, and the only other thing that could hurt us is winning both games, which I'm not seeing as a legit possibility, but like you said, any given Sunday....

After the Bears play the Browns their SOS should be more favorable. If the Niners pull out a win over the Jags or Rams, is it enough to flip positions?

10 isn't bad. That's the spot the Chiefs were able to trade down out of last year to the Texans. Let's hope the 3rd QB on the board is still there when we are up and are able to move down in the draft and pick up some additional picks.

Knowing the Bears we will win out, The browns suck worse than we do and the Vikings if they win next week lock up the 2nd seed in the NFC so they will rest their players.

At 10 though we would be looking at probably the top CB or WR or a top 2 OLB

Sorry OP, can’t root for the Bucs tonight. Next two weeks...sure.
ATL win tonight is the best way to get the Fudge Boys eliminated from playoffs. An ATL loss gives the Fudgers a viable path.

Maybe im wrong but how can the 49ers pick before us even the bucs if we finish with the same record. They beat us

owenby83 said:

Maybe im wrong but how can the 49ers pick before us even the bucs if we finish with the same record. They beat us

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I goes on strength of schedule.

If he bears have the 2nd toughest schedule and the 49ers have it tougher (assuming) how are he Texans picking ahead of Bears?

We really do need to lose to the Browns. I have no problem at all rooting for that. Let it be part of Fox's legacy.

DaYdAy69 said:

If he bears have the 2nd toughest schedule and the 49ers have it tougher (assuming) how are he Texans picking ahead of Bears?

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Bears have a tougher strength of schedule, so the Texans would pick earlier than the Bears.

MojoRisin said:

We really do need to lose to the Browns. I have no problem at all rooting for that. Let it be part of Fox's legacy.

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I hear you. I can never bring myself to root against the Bears. But for the people rooting for a high draft order, lean into it. Don’t make an exception just because it would be the Browns’ only win. Root hard against the Bears, knowing it could very realistically be the difference between picking #6 and #10.

I mean, I could never do it. Just sayin’.

Toast88 said:

I hear you. I can never bring myself to root against the Bears. But for the people rooting for a high draft order, lean into it. Don’t make an exception just because it would be the Browns’ only win. Root hard against the Bears, knowing it could very realistically be the difference between picking #6 and #10.

I mean, I could never do it. Just sayin’.

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The most important thing is the skill of our rookie QB. If he shows well and the Bears win, I'm happy. If he plays poorly, the future is in doubt. Also, you can get an outstanding WR, the team's No. 1 need, at #10.

Losing to the Browns would be a huge embarrassment. I cannot root for the Bears to lose. The game being on Christmas Eve does not make it easier. I'm thinking the Bears will split the final two games. Bears SOS should drop after playing the Browns but not sure it will drop low enough. Bears SOS is way higher than all these other teams below them, except for Tampa. I anticipate the Bears picking between #6 - #9. It is still possible that the Browns can own the #1 and #2 picks in the draft. Not likely but still possible.

I know its going to be hard to pass up a Minkah Fitzpatrick or Calvin Ridley , but I would like to see a trade down. When you are 4-11 you obviously have alot of holes to fill.

ping001 said:

I know its going to be hard to pass up a Minkah Fitzpatrick or Calvin Ridley , but I would like to see a trade down. When you are 4-11 you obviously have alot of holes to fill.

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The Bears have to trade down but it will most likely happen in the 2nd round, like last year. Unless there is a coveted QB and a team wants to move up and gives you a boat load of draft picks.

ping001 said:

I know its going to be hard to pass up a Minkah Fitzpatrick or Calvin Ridley , but I would like to see a trade down. When you are 4-11 you obviously have alot of holes to fill.

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bears26 said:

The Bears have to trade down but it will most likely happen in the 2nd round, like last year. Unless there is a coveted QB and a team wants to move up and gives you a boat load of draft picks.

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I agree with a trade down, but I think that prospect became more difficult once SF traded for Garappolo. They're going to be in a position to dictate terms of a top pick for one of the QBs on the board.