Milton Waddams
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwellx171218/los-angeles-rams-historic-2017-nfl-turnaround-2018-candidates-go-worst-first
Chicago is as close as we can get to last year's Rams. The Bears have an underrated defense led by an interior disruptor in Akiem Hicks, with Fangio's unit ranking 14th in DVOA before Saturday's 20-10 loss to the Lions. The Bears traded up to grab their quarterback of the future in the 2017 draft, but Mitchell Trubisky hasn't been very good; the second overall pick is last in the league in Total QBR (26.6), with a scarcely believable 3.4 QBR when under pressure. The Bears have a franchise running back but lack weapons for Trubisky at receiver, a position they'll surely address this offseason.
They're also probably about to fire their coaching staff and hire an offense-minded coach to help develop Trubisky. Of course, finding the right coach is key. They'll have to consider a pair of NFC North offensive coordinators in Jim Bob Cooter and Pat Shurmur, each of whom has done excellent work with their quarterbacks this season. They could consider Bill O'Brien if the Texans fire him. Jon Gruden is still out there. The Bears won't go too far out of the box after the Marc Trestman experiment failed, but they almost assuredly have to lean on a quarterback developer.
There is infrastructure here. Hire the right coach, sign a No. 1 wide receiver in an interesting free-agent class, and get lucky. Maybe Chicago gets a full season out of Kevin White, or Adam Shaheen takes a sophomore leap. Kyle Fuller, who was written off as a disappointment for years, suddenly looks like a starting cornerback. Maybe the Bears re-sign him and draft another cornerback in the first round and their defense sneaks into the top 10.
The quantitative case isn't bad, either. The Bears are 2-5 in one-score games this season. They were a drop away from beating the Falcons in Week 1. They were starting a drive with a chance to win a tied game in Trubisky's debut start, only for an interception to set up the game-winning field goal. Connor Barth missed a 46-yard field goal at the death that would have beaten the Lions. They've played what Football Outsiders pegs to be the second-toughest schedule in football so far.
As with many other candidates, the divisional strength stands in their way. The NFC North probably would be your pick right now as the league's best division heading into 2018, given that the Vikings are going to have a first-round bye with Case Keenum at quarterback, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions still have an outside shot at their second consecutive playoff berth with two games to go. Then again, we also thought the AFC West was unquestionably the league's best division heading into 2017, and it has turned out to be a desperate race toward nine wins. The Bears might very well settle in at 6-10 next year, but their best-case scenario is markedly similar to the Rams'.
Chicago is as close as we can get to last year's Rams. The Bears have an underrated defense led by an interior disruptor in Akiem Hicks, with Fangio's unit ranking 14th in DVOA before Saturday's 20-10 loss to the Lions. The Bears traded up to grab their quarterback of the future in the 2017 draft, but Mitchell Trubisky hasn't been very good; the second overall pick is last in the league in Total QBR (26.6), with a scarcely believable 3.4 QBR when under pressure. The Bears have a franchise running back but lack weapons for Trubisky at receiver, a position they'll surely address this offseason.
They're also probably about to fire their coaching staff and hire an offense-minded coach to help develop Trubisky. Of course, finding the right coach is key. They'll have to consider a pair of NFC North offensive coordinators in Jim Bob Cooter and Pat Shurmur, each of whom has done excellent work with their quarterbacks this season. They could consider Bill O'Brien if the Texans fire him. Jon Gruden is still out there. The Bears won't go too far out of the box after the Marc Trestman experiment failed, but they almost assuredly have to lean on a quarterback developer.
There is infrastructure here. Hire the right coach, sign a No. 1 wide receiver in an interesting free-agent class, and get lucky. Maybe Chicago gets a full season out of Kevin White, or Adam Shaheen takes a sophomore leap. Kyle Fuller, who was written off as a disappointment for years, suddenly looks like a starting cornerback. Maybe the Bears re-sign him and draft another cornerback in the first round and their defense sneaks into the top 10.
The quantitative case isn't bad, either. The Bears are 2-5 in one-score games this season. They were a drop away from beating the Falcons in Week 1. They were starting a drive with a chance to win a tied game in Trubisky's debut start, only for an interception to set up the game-winning field goal. Connor Barth missed a 46-yard field goal at the death that would have beaten the Lions. They've played what Football Outsiders pegs to be the second-toughest schedule in football so far.
As with many other candidates, the divisional strength stands in their way. The NFC North probably would be your pick right now as the league's best division heading into 2018, given that the Vikings are going to have a first-round bye with Case Keenum at quarterback, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions still have an outside shot at their second consecutive playoff berth with two games to go. Then again, we also thought the AFC West was unquestionably the league's best division heading into 2017, and it has turned out to be a desperate race toward nine wins. The Bears might very well settle in at 6-10 next year, but their best-case scenario is markedly similar to the Rams'.
