Juiced balls and Home Runs

85Bears

Formerly known as 85Bears
Donator
Joined:
Sep 26, 2012
Posts:
1,797
Liked Posts:
970
Location:
Enemy territory...
Found this article on fivethiryeight.com:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/

We X-Rayed Some MLB Baseballs. Here’s What We Found.

On 6,105 occasions last season, a major leaguer walked to the plate and hammered a baseball over the outfield wall. The 2017 season broke the home run record that was set in 2000 — the peak of the steroid era — when players hit 5,693 homers, and it built upon the remarkable 5,610 that were hit in 2016. It was a stunning display of power that played out in every MLB park almost every night. And with spring training underway in Florida and Arizona, MLB’s power surge is showing no sign of letting up.

But while we now know what caused the spike in home runs at the turn of the century — even if we didn’t at the time — the reason for the most recent flurry of long balls remains an unsolved mystery. Any number of factors might have contributed to the home run surge, including bigger, stronger players or a new emphasis on hitting fly balls. But none of those possibilities looms larger than the ball itself.

MLB and its commissioner, Rob Manfred, have repeatedly denied rumors that the ball has been altered in any way — or “juiced” — to generate more homers. But a large and growing body of research shows that, beginning in the middle of the 2015 season, the MLB baseball began to fly further. And new research commissioned by “ESPN Sport Science,” a show that breaks down the science of sports,1 suggests that MLB baseballs used after the 2015 All-Star Game were subtly but consistently different than older baseballs. The research, performed by the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California and Kent State University’s Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, reveals changes in the density and chemical composition of the baseball’s core — and provides our first glimpse inside the newer baseballs.

......


Forgive me for not pasting it all, but the article is long and there are cool x-ray and other picture comparisons of baseballs in it.

TLDR: Beginning in mid 2015, the balls are indeed different in a way that could account for another 8.6 feet in fly ball travel, which could in turn account for a 25% increase in HRs.
 
Last edited:

CubsFaninMN

Active member
Joined:
Jan 8, 2018
Posts:
581
Liked Posts:
120
Interesting. The slightly tighter seams of the stitching on newer balls noted in the article could also explain the sudden observable shift in the stats of some pitchers who rely -- or relied -- on the ball to perform a specific way due to spin rate (or lack thereof, for a knuckler) combined with a baseball's known aerodynamic properties.

If the seams ain't as pronounced, the ball will "bite" a touch less in the air, and your "movement" pitches will move less. Sort of like everyone, everywhere in the Majors is suddenly pitching at Coors Field, as far as the cut on their curves and sliders are concerned. This could impact a pitcher like Arrieta, who lives in the very corners of the zone; if the ball breaks even an inch less, he misses the zone, his walk rate climbs, his hit rate (especially home runs allowed) climbs, and his pitches per inning rate climbs, meaning he exits his starts far earlier. Sure sounds a lot like what happened to Jake over the past two seasons. (Yes, his fastball lost velocity, but per some things I've read, he did that deliberately, to try and regain his control of the edges of the zone.)

So, while the article only considers home run rates, there are other aspects to these changes in the baseball that impact the game. And in fact, those impacts, instead of enhancing the careers of hitters, can just decimate the careers of some pitchers.
 

Mr. Cub

2016 World Series Champs!
Joined:
Dec 13, 2010
Posts:
4,857
Liked Posts:
1,039
Location:
Earth
I read this the other day. Was interesting for sure. The balls are obviously different than they used to be.
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
13,554
Liked Posts:
1,924
So should hitters from this era be banned from HOF because of the balls being juiced up

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

Diehardfan

Well-known member
Joined:
Jun 10, 2010
Posts:
9,234
Liked Posts:
6,640
Location:
Western Burbs
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Chicago Blackhawks
Really...this a completely different thing. This is not some guys shooting up or corking their bat....it's the same baseball for everyone. It's not cheating. Instead of the corked bats and a spineless commissioner letting drug use virtually run over the league in the name of "saving the game"....everyone using the same juiced up baseball could have alleviated a major embarrassment to the league along with getting the desired results.
 

85Bears

Formerly known as 85Bears
Donator
Joined:
Sep 26, 2012
Posts:
1,797
Liked Posts:
970
Location:
Enemy territory...
Really...this a completely different thing. This is not some guys shooting up or corking their bat....it's the same baseball for everyone. It's not cheating. Instead of the corked bats and a spineless commissioner letting drug use virtually run over the league in the name of "saving the game"....everyone using the same juiced up baseball could have alleviated a major embarrassment to the league along with getting the desired results.

Yeah. HRs are entertaining fan-favorites. I'd put money on MLB doing this on purpose as a way of creating more HRs that fans love.

But when confronted with it, if I were Manfred I'd say, "yes, we made some slight internal changes to the ball. The intent was not more HRs, but if that's the result, who doesn't like HRs?"
 

CubsFaninMN

Active member
Joined:
Jan 8, 2018
Posts:
581
Liked Posts:
120
Yeah. HRs are entertaining fan-favorites. I'd put money on MLB doing this on purpose as a way of creating more HRs that fans love.

But when confronted with it, if I were Manfred I'd say, "yes, we made some slight internal changes to the ball. The intent was not more HRs, but if that's the result, who doesn't like HRs?"

Pitchers. Especially pitchers whose future earnings can be degraded drastically by an increase in their gofer-ball rate.
 

85Bears

Formerly known as 85Bears
Donator
Joined:
Sep 26, 2012
Posts:
1,797
Liked Posts:
970
Location:
Enemy territory...
Pitchers. Especially pitchers whose future earnings can be degraded drastically by an increase in their gofer-ball rate.

Pitchers will adjust to the higher HR rates. If a +25% increase in HRs becomes the new normal, then salaries will normalize around that number and pitchers will be as important as ever.


Besides, I was talking about fans, not players with the "who doesn't like HRs?" comment.
 

Top