Top 10 QB Prospects of the Past 3 Drafts

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ects-of-past-3-nfl-draft-classes-darnold-no-1

1) Sam Darnold, USC
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: I had very similar draft grades on each of the top four players on this list. However, I gave Darnold a slightly higher grade than Carson Wentz because of his durability and level of competition from college.

2) Carson Wentz, North Dakota State
Draft class: 2016; second overall pick, Philadelphia Eagles
The skinny: Wentz had an ideal skill set coming out of NDSU. His ability to drive the ball accurately and create with his legs made him a special prospect.

3) Josh Rosen, UCLA
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: Rosen is the best pure passer in this time frame (2016-2018). His motion, footwork and arm talent are off the charts.

4) Jared Goff, Cal
Draft class: 2016; first overall pick, Los Angeles Rams
The skinny: Goff was very smooth and accurate at Cal. He was an effortless thrower and you've seen that carry over to the NFL.


5) Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: Mayfield is the shortest member of this group (measured in at 6-foot 5/8 and 215 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine), but I gave him a strong grade based on his touch, playmaking ability and toughness.

6) Josh Allen, Wyoming
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: Allen was an inconsistent performer at Wyoming, but his good moments are incredibly impressive. He is very capable of outplaying my draft grade.

7) Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Draft class: 2017; 12th overall pick, Houston Texans
The skinny: I had Watson as my highest-rated quarterback in last year's class, but based on early returns, I was way too low with my grade. I had concerns with his accuracy and decision making, but he cleaned up both areas last fall. He was off to a remarkable start as a rookie before suffering an ACL tear in November.

8) Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina
Draft class: 2017; second overall pick, Chicago Bears
The skinny: I loved Trubisky's talent, but he had a very small sample size of production. He was a full-time starter for only one year at UNC, but his upside was tremendous.


9) DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Draft class: 2017; 52nd overall pick (Round 2), Cleveland Browns
The skinny: I had a big grade on Kizer heading into his final year at Notre Dame, but he struggled mightily to maintain that level of play. I ended up dropping his grade prior to the 2017 draft and he landed in a really tough spot in Cleveland. He was rushed into action before he was ready to play, and the results weren't pretty. Now, he's getting a fresh start after being traded to the Green Bay Packers earlier this month.

10) Paxton Lynch, Memphis
Draft class: 2016; 26th overall pick, Denver Broncos
The skinny: Lynch was a polarizing player coming out of Memphis. His size, arm talent and athleticism were enticing, but I had concerns about the adjustment he would have to make from his college offense to an NFL system.

Guess they forgot Mahomes? No way would I put Darnold first.

Seems Trubs get knocked for 1 thing and 1 thing only. Small sample size. I guess that's a positive thing as nobody see's any flaws elsewhere. I have not seen one knock based off talent or arm strength or decision making or bad mobility or Cutler personality. It's always small sample size. I hear there is a fix for that nowadays.

I guess Pace should have waited another year to draft his qb.

Adipost said:

I guess Pace should have waited another year to draft his qb.

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nah, NEXT year's crop is even better! always is! and we'll have a top 3 pick again easily.

I'll never understand why the draftniks undervalued Deshaun Watson...it never made any sense to me..

I routinely said last year that I thought Mitch was the best prospect since Andrew Luck. None of the guys in this draft have made me change my mind.

I still think Mitch's physical skillset sets him apart. His combination of mobility and arm talent (power and accuracy) is the best of the guys listed coming out of college.

How he develops between the ears is what will determine where he ranks among these guys in the end though.

Like any QB with enough skill level... along with a good scheme and associated players.

vabearsfan15 said:

I'll never understand why the draftniks undervalued Deshaun Watson...it never made any sense to me..

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I know why I undervalued him. His turnovers coming out of college were fucking alarming. I thought for sure he was going to be a turnover machine in the pros.

I’m a fan of the nfl.com draft profile ratings, but not entirely certain of how it works.
If you look at those ratings, Trubisky is 4th on this list behind Darnold, Wentz and Goff.
This is an article from Jeremiah, so it must be just how he had them rated. Anyone know how many guys get input into their overall ratings?

PickSix said:

I’m a fan of the nfl.com draft profile ratings, but not entirely certain of how it works.
If you look at those ratings, Trubisky is 4th on this list behind Darnold, Wentz and Goff.
This is an article from Jeremiah, so it must be just how he had them rated. Anyone know how many guys get input into their overall ratings?

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Isn't Jeremiah the guy that didn't have a QB in the 1st before the combine last year. Maybe he had Trubs late by now but I don't see how he had this rating even just before the draft. In his final draft, he had Mitch 1st off at 12 and Watson at 27 and I'm sure that was influenced by what he was hearing from contacts more than his own evaluations. I suspect this article is revisionist after watching these guys play in the NFL, not in terms of order but generally rising in his esteem.

Nothing against the OP. I know he's just passing it along, and that's fine. But lists like these are stupid.

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

You put guys who haven't played a single snap in the NFL above guys who clearly will at least have decent careers.

Also, Josh Allen? What the fuck?

Hey look, I get it. None of us can predict the future. For all I know, Josh Allen will be a great NFL quarterback. But if he is, it'll be the biggest shock of my life. His college numbers are mirrors of---but slightly worse than---Christian Hackenberg, despite Allen playing against worse competition.


If someone wants to put Wentz, Goff and Watson ahead of Trubisky, that's fine. There's at least some evidence to support. But fucking Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield? L-O-fucking-L. I was a heavy watcher of Pac 12 football and couldn't tell you that anything is much special about Darnold or Rosen. Again, the NFL is crapshoot, so who knows, but seriously?

Toast88 said:

Nothing against the OP. I know he's just passing it along, and that's fine. But lists like these are stupid.

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

You put guys who haven't played a single snap in the NFL above guys who clearly will at least have decent careers.

Also, Josh Allen? What the fuck?

Hey look, I get it. None of us can predict the future. For all I know, Josh Allen will be a great NFL quarterback. But if he is, it'll be the biggest shock of my life. His college numbers are mirrors of---but slightly worse than---Christian Hackenberg, despite Allen playing against worse competition.


If someone wants to put Wentz, Goff and Watson ahead of Trubisky, that's fine. There's at least some evidence to support. But fucking Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield? L-O-fucking-L. I was a heavy watcher of Pac 12 football and couldn't tell you that anything is much special about Darnold or Rosen. Again, the NFL is crapshoot, so who knows, but seriously?

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This list is viewing them as prospects on an equal playing field coming out of college, not in hindsight. I don’t agree with the rankings either, it’s just someone else’s perspective.

Bearly said:

Isn't Jeremiah the guy that didn't have a QB in the 1st before the combine last year. Maybe he had Trubs late by now but I don't see how he had this rating even just before the draft. In his final draft, he had Mitch 1st off at 12 and Watson at 27 and I'm sure that was influenced by what he was hearing from contacts more than his own evaluations. I suspect this article is revisionist after watching these guys play in the NFL, not in terms of order but generally rising in his esteem.

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Yes, he didn’t particularly like any of the Qb’s last year, same with Mayock.

Here is his top 10 since 2011...

Andrew Luck

Cam Newton

Robert Griffin III

Jameis Winston

Teddy Bridgewater

Marcus Mariota

Sam Darnold

Carson Wentz

Josh Rosen

Jared Goff

sevvy said:

I know why I undervalued him. His turnovers coming out of college were fucking alarming. I thought for sure he was going to be a turnover machine in the pros.

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You were almost right, you just spelled touchdown wrong.

Rosen & Darnold pretty high I don't see them as better prospects than Watson and Trubisky.

sevvy said:

I know why I undervalued him. His turnovers coming out of college were fucking alarming. I thought for sure he was going to be a turnover machine in the pros.

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His career has not been decided yet.