Bold Predictions

CubsFaninMN

CubsFaninMN

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As we approach Opening Day, I figure it's time to trot out our Bold Predictions for the upcoming season. Now that we have a decent idea of what the teams will like look going into the season.

I'll start it out by noting that, in each of the past three seasons when the Cubs reached the NLCS, they had really piss-poor ST records. This year, the ST record is outstanding -- the Cubs have something like the fourth best record in both the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues, combined. Of the rest of the NL Central teams, Milwaukee has one of the best records, while Pittsburgh has one of the worst.

So, Bold Prediction -- this means that, based solely on the inversion law of ST vs regular season records, Pittsburgh and Cincy will fight it out for the division, while the Cubs and Brewers languish in the cellar.

:D

Drawing any conclusions from ST or even the first month of the season, I am always reminded of a nice little ditty they ran a couple of years ago on the MLB Central show on MLB Network. It's a new set of lyrics to an operatic aria that most of us know better as the "STP Song" from their 60's ads, that went "STP, you need some STP, one little can will keep you running free...", etc.

The best lyric for that piece goes:

Small sample size,
It's a small sample size!
Small sample size,
A very small sample size!
Small, incredibly tiny sample size!
It's a very small sample size!
It's just a very small,
A really small,
A small sample size!

:D :D :D
 

beckdawg

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I legitimately believe Heyward is going to be a 3+ win player. I legitimately believe Schwarber is going to be crazy good. If we exclude the defense aspect, I think his bat may be better than both Rizzo and Bryant this year. Wouldn't shock me if Schwarber was a .300/.400/.500 type player. I'd argue he's probably going to be a bit lower on the BA but maybe a bit higher in OBP and slugging. Scarier thing is I think even if he does what I'm expecting him to I think there's more meat on the bone. I assume he's probably going to be in the 26-28% k rate range but I think in his prime he will be pretty close to 20% k rate. Bryant upped his batting average 17 points year 1 to 2 by dropping his K rate roughly 8% and that was with a huge decline in his BABIP. This spring Schwarber is around 7% better in K rate than he was in the second half of last year(27% on the spring).

Based on the data I've been looking at, I'm not even sure saying he'll hit .280-.290 is a particularly bold statement. If the numbers hold, I think it's more probable than not. If he then reduces that K rate to his AA numbers(20% k rate), i mean hell you could be talking about a .300-.320 hitter.
 

Parade_Rain

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My favorite teams
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  1. Cubs finish regular season with 94 wins
  2. Cubs will win the division
  3. Cubs will reach the NLCS for 4th straight year
  4. Baez will control the plate better in 2018
  5. Happ has a breakout season and the Cubs find their Fowler replacement
  6. Schwarber, while not being a genius defensively, will have significantly improved UZR.
  7. Schwarber will be better against LHP this season.
  8. Cubs starting rotation will be one of top 2 statistically in NL at the end of regular season.
  9. CJ Edwards will dominate as a Reliever this season
  10. Bryant wins another MVP award
  11. Contreras will be an All-Star
  12. Heyward will be reduced to a platoon type role in the 2nd half of the season (this one is a real reach, but Beck is asking for "bold" predictions)
  13. The Cubs beat Arrieta when he faces the Cubs

disclaimer: This list has little research behind it and is a gut reaction.
 

jooo83

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My favorite teams
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Parade_Rain said:
  1. Cubs finish regular season with 94 wins
  2. Cubs will win the division
  3. Cubs will reach the NLCS for 4th straight year
  4. Baez will control the plate better in 2018
  5. Happ has a breakout season and the Cubs find their Fowler replacement
  6. Schwarber, while not being a genius defensively, will have significantly improved UZR.
  7. Schwarber will be better against LHP this season.
  8. Cubs starting rotation will be one of top 2 statistically in NL at the end of regular season.
  9. CJ Edwards will dominate as a Reliever this season
  10. Bryant wins another MVP award
  11. Contreras will be an All-Star
  12. Heyward will be reduced to a platoon type role in the 2nd half of the season (this one is a real reach, but Beck is asking for "bold" predictions)
  13. The Cubs beat Arrieta when he faces the Cubs

disclaimer: This list has little research behind it and is a gut reaction.
Click to expand...

No World Series prediction?
 
CSF77

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On “bold”. I don’t think I can honestly make one. Bold to me is a complete tank like the Giants pulled last year

This year they are expected to be great. Happ is projecting to lead off. Heyward can’t be this bad after being that good for years. Wilson has been good in the past. A bold on him was pridicting his Cubs run last year after being established in Detroit. Or predicting Heyward’s fall as a Cub.

So on the theme of “bold” I would guess Chattwood making the next step. Morrow I don’t want to touch it yet. He is my biggest question mark going in. Happ May have a sophomore slump. Now if it opens up time for Almora and he cements every day CF it might be bold. It is the unlikely scenario.
 
Omeletpants

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  1. Columbus Blue Jackets
Schwarber breaks .200 ba this year
 

fatbeard

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Kyle Schwarber will have a 2016 Bryce Harper-type season. Hit well over .300, 40+ HRs.
 
chibears55

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Bold predictions.... hmmm

1. Contreras becomes an AS catcher

2. Rizzo wins GG

3. Baez 20HRs 20 SB

4. Russell 20 HRs GG

5. Bryant .300 30 HR 100 RBI

6. Schwarber MVP type season

7. Happ takes over CF and leadoff spot

8. Heyward ends up in platoon with Zobrist in RF

9. Almora and Lastella are top bench players in league

10. Starting 5 pitchers lead league in Wins ERA and Strikeouts

11. Darvish wins Cy Young

12. Bullpen top 5 all year

13. Morrow and Wilson share closer role

14. Cubs wont need to make any trades at deadline...

15. Cubs win 104 games

16. Cubs win World Series [emoji6]



Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

brett05

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I love how ho-hum predictions like Cubs winning the division or Bryant hitting 30 taters is considered bold.
 
CSF77

CSF77

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brett05 said:
I love how ho-hum predictions like Cubs winning the division or Bryant hitting 30 taters is considered bold.
Click to expand...

Ya. Saying Morrow getting 35 saves and 15 for Wilson is Bold.

Happ banging out 30 is bold.

Schwarber SO under 20% is bold.

The only bold statement that I would go with is Q and Hendricks both win more than 20 games each
 
oober

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Bold?

3 players hit 40 HR's
4 pitchers win 20 games
0 blown saves for the season
MVP and Cy Young goes to Cubs
Cubs win 124 games and sweep the playoffs to be 2018 WS champions.
 
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