Random cubs/baseball talks

CSF77 · Jul 20, 2018

CSF77 said:
He was at 6.65 I believe. He is normally hovering 8 as a pen arm. I believe he is pitching more contact to get easy outs though

Oh on ranking: depends on who you believe

Baseball America ranked Mejia as the game’s No. 24 overall prospect on yesterday’s updated Top 100 list, while ESPN’s Keith Law just this morning ranked Mejia as baseball’s No. 5 overall prospect.

fatbeard · Jul 23, 2018

Nats are under.500 and six back in the WC with five teams ahead of them. How is Harper not on the block now?

brett05 · Jul 24, 2018

fatbeard said:
Nats are under.500 and six back in the WC with five teams ahead of them. How is Harper not on the block now?

I think they are in it full force even though the record says otherwise.

anotheridiot · Jul 24, 2018

fatbeard said:
Nats are under.500 and six back in the WC with five teams ahead of them. How is Harper not on the block now?

Everything is going washingtons way in terms of Harper, average is down, home run derby win in the home park with screaming fans supporting him, apparently they think its enough to make him want to stay and never wear another teams uniform.

Now, if they work something out and pull a Chapman and strip a farm system for him, different story. But I dont think they want him tasting any one elses home cooking.

TC in Mississippi · Jul 24, 2018

fatbeard said:
Nats are under.500 and six back in the WC with five teams ahead of them. How is Harper not on the block now?

The Nats have 6 games left before the deadline, 2 against Milwaukee, 4 against Miami. If they lost 3 of the next 4 I would think they'd have to consider moving him but where would his market be? Arizona? Do they give up their top prospect for an under performing Harper? The likelihood is that he doesn't get moved and stays in Washington for 2019 on a $30 mil pillow deal for one year. He probably lost $200 mil plus by not playing well this year and when you were expecting $400 mil plus and will be lucky to get $200 mil I doubt you're just going to say "oh, OK". He's going to want a chance to get back some of that coin.

brett05 · Jul 24, 2018

TC in Mississippi said:
The Nats have 6 games left before the deadline, 2 against Milwaukee, 4 against Miami. If they lost 3 of the next 4 I would think they'd have to consider moving him but where would his market be? Arizona? Do they give up their top prospect for an under performing Harper? The likelihood is that he doesn't get moved and stays in Washington for 2019 on a $30 mil pillow deal for one year. He probably lost $200 mil plus by not playing well this year and when you were expecting $400 mil plus and will be lucky to get $200 mil I doubt you're just going to say "oh, OK". He's going to want a chance to get back some of that coin.

I can see a one year deal, but i don't think he's lost more than 50% of his contract as you do

anotheridiot · Jul 24, 2018

TC in Mississippi said:
The Nats have 6 games left before the deadline, 2 against Milwaukee, 4 against Miami. If they lost 3 of the next 4 I would think they'd have to consider moving him but where would his market be? Arizona? Do they give up their top prospect for an under performing Harper? The likelihood is that he doesn't get moved and stays in Washington for 2019 on a $30 mil pillow deal for one year. He probably lost $200 mil plus by not playing well this year and when you were expecting $400 mil plus and will be lucky to get $200 mil I doubt you're just going to say "oh, OK". He's going to want a chance to get back some of that coin.

Well, we saw Kershaw and Grienke get 30+ million and thought that was the new normal, but we learned from Jake and Yu that is was the ceiling and both of them are showing they were not worth it. Now, if either got signed before Christmas to a 150=180 million dollar deal, different story ( I know Jakes can be worth up to 150 with options). But it seems to me that Trout will be the first and probably only 400 million dollar guy. Trout is at 33. something now, gotta think Harper should be more in the Stanton area than the Trout area.

TC in Mississippi · Jul 24, 2018

anotheridiot said:
Well, we saw Kershaw and Grienke get 30+ million and thought that was the new normal, but we learned from Jake and Yu that is was the ceiling and both of them are showing they were not worth it. Now, if either got signed before Christmas to a 150=180 million dollar deal, different story ( I know Jakes can be worth up to 150 with options). But it seems to me that Trout will be the first and probably only 400 million dollar guy. Trout is at 33. something now, gotta think Harper should be more in the Stanton area than the Trout area.

Kershaw has earned every nickel of his contract (29 WAR since signing) so that part isn't valid but it also doesn't have anything to do with what I was saying. Harper has lost money, no question, and even to get that $325 Stanton money is probably a stretch this offseason. If I'm him I'm either signing a contract with an opt out after the first year or a straight up 1 year pillow deal for $30 mil. Given their close relationship with Scott Boras I would think the Nats would oblige.

beckdawg · Jul 24, 2018

Christopher Kamka
@ckamka
Barry Bonds after turning 40 (332 games):
.288/.491/.612, 79 HR, 348 walks, 131 strikeouts

Mike Trout last 332 games:
.308/.450/.591, 78 HR, 277 walks, 277 strikeouts

Ryan M. Spaeder
✔
@theaceofspaeder
Barry Bonds hit a Major League record 762 home runs.

If all of his home runs were strikeouts, he would still have both a higher on-base percentage and a lower strikeout percentage than Willie Stargell, Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt, Sammy Sosa, and Alex Rodriguez.

Bonds may have been on roids but good lord he was insanely talented regardless.

brett05 · Jul 24, 2018

beckdawg said:
Bonds may have been on roids but ... was insanely talented regardless.

He's a top 10 player of all time

brett05 · Jul 24, 2018

Did you all see the one on Joey Votto and pop-ups?

anotheridiot · Jul 24, 2018

TC in Mississippi said:
Kershaw has earned every nickel of his contract (29 WAR since signing) so that part isn't valid but it also doesn't have anything to do with what I was saying. Harper has lost money, no question, and even to get that $325 Stanton money is probably a stretch this offseason. If I'm him I'm either signing a contract with an opt out after the first year or a straight up 1 year pillow deal for $30 mil. Given their close relationship with Scott Boras I would think the Nats would oblige.

It happens in every sport, what are you talking about? NFL Franchise tag a guy that makes the average of the top 5 paid at the position.

NBA, pay Lebron James a dollar more than any other player in the NBA, sign the rest of the average players to max deals of 200 million dollars.

You think Boreass just picked a number out of his ass to negotiate for Jake? Top pitchers get top dollars. That broke with Yu and Jake, but in both regards, neither guy is who they were. That is why free agents were not signing until March.

Do you seriously think Boreass will allow Harper to sign for less than the stanton deal, even though we all know it was to overvalue the team for the sale?

The way the owners are now, I think Washington become the bulls of the baseball world where no free agent will choose to sign with them if Harper is gone. They have to sign him long term and any hard balling with this average deal will lose him.

TC in Mississippi · Jul 24, 2018

anotheridiot said:
It happens in every sport, what are you talking about? NFL Franchise tag a guy that makes the average of the top 5 paid at the position.

NBA, pay Lebron James a dollar more than any other player in the NBA, sign the rest of the average players to max deals of 200 million dollars.

You think Boreass just picked a number out of his ass to negotiate for Jake? Top pitchers get top dollars. That broke with Yu and Jake, but in both regards, neither guy is who they were. That is why free agents were not signing until March.

Do you seriously think Boreass will allow Harper to sign for less than the stanton deal, even though we all know it was to overvalue the team for the sale?

The way the owners are now, I think Washington become the bulls of the baseball world where no free agent will choose to sign with them if Harper is gone. They have to sign him long term and any hard balling with this average deal will lose him.

First of all calling the guy names is idiotic. Second Boras has many times advised his guys to sign pillow deals, especially with their current team, it's a great way to build value. the Stanton deal wasn't a terrible deal at $325 mil but it's unlikely Harper is going to get that much after this year. That could change. He could get hot and lead his team to the promised land, but it isn't likely. He's not signing a $200 mil deal and he's not getting much more than that as it currently sits.

CSF77 · Jul 24, 2018

Drew Smyly said Monday his arm felt good after throwing a simulated game on Sunday. The next step will be another sim game on Thursday at Wrigley Field before beginning a Minor League rehab outing. Smyly is coming back from having Tommy John surgery last year.

CSF77 · Jul 24, 2018

Well that is good news

TC in Mississippi · Jul 25, 2018

Eovaldi is off the board. Heading to Boston. Kind of disappointed to be honest. I realize he would never start a playoff game, or maybe even the roster if Darvish comes back, but he could eat innings.

beckdawg · Jul 25, 2018

TC in Mississippi said:
Eovaldi is off the board. Heading to Boston. Kind of disappointed to be honest. I realize he would never start a playoff game, or maybe even the roster if Darvish comes back, but he could eat innings.

I honestly am not fussed about this either. Given the price he went for I think they'd be better paying maybe a tiny bit more for Gaussman. I think he has better upside and if you can package him and say Brach together it solves more issues

TC in Mississippi · Jul 25, 2018

beckdawg said:
I honestly am not fussed about this either. Given the price he went for I think they'd be better paying maybe a tiny bit more for Gaussman. I think he has better upside and if you can package him and say Brach together it solves more issues

Gausman isn't going to cost a tiny bit more, he's going to cost a lot more and if you're going that route I'd rather have Bundy. Right now I'd focus on either a small move in Tyson Ross or go big for Archer.

beckdawg · Jul 25, 2018

TC in Mississippi said:
Gausman isn't going to cost a tiny bit more, he's going to cost a lot more and if you're going that route I'd rather have Bundy. Right now I'd focus on either a small move in Tyson Ross or go big for Archer.

Would he though? Like maybe a year or two ago I'd agree with you but he's currently got 2.5 years left before FA and next year will be his third trip through arb so he's not going to be cheap(already at $5.6 mil). And he's got a career ERA/FIP of 4.23/4.16. You compare that to Nathan Eovaldi who's at 4.22/3.88. Sure you're getting an extra 2 years of him but he's pitched like a #4 starter tops and while I think you might be able to coax more out of him you aren't paying #2 prices for a guy with a career 4.23 ERA. You could say that Baltimore isn't in a hurry to trade him but are they going to get more for him when he's likely making $10 mil next offseason? He's also not exactly young at 27 either. Least with Bundy you're talking about a 25 year old.

beckdawg · Jul 25, 2018

Also fwiw, fangraphs had an article about o's pieces. Here was their comment on Guasman to the pirates as an idea...

I’m not sure we can get Ke’Bryan Hayes in the trade, but I’d like to try — and I’d love to snag one of the extra shortstops the Pirates have at higher levels.

Hayes is a end of the top 100 guy and he's not sure they could get that for him. I think realistically you're talking about 2 50 grade prospects for him. Maybe you argue he's worth a little more than that but I'm not seeing much more

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