IST: Cards at Cubs

CSF77 said:

I kinda wouldn't mind seeing Rizzo leadoff part deux.

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Id love to see what Almora could do there with some consistent AB..
I wish Maddon would just give the kid a legit chance there and see what he does..


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Diehardfan said:

If the Orioles really were interested in moving him, it would've been done already. Unless he comes with contract in hand, they won't get near his worth at the deadline.

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It is surprising they didnt move him over the offseason..
Makes you wonder what offers they did get and if he told teams he was testing the market after the year over extending..

Orioles right now are looking at either a draft pick if he sticks til the end or best offer for a rental at deadline ..
Im sure their going to do their best to match with a team looking to pay players price for an extension with him and that he willing to extend with..

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chibears55 said:

obviously if and before the cubs make that kind of deal their going to want a commitment to an extension from him to include Russell or Baez..
I probably should of made that clearer

If it just a rental and a chance to at least have a few month to talk, maybe Happ and a couple pitchers get it going ..Then Maddon has to figure out how to keep both Russell and Baez happy with playing time


If Epstein and Hoyer are seriously considering to make a legit offer on a Machado deal, id love to see that happen sooner rather then later..


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But that's not how trades work. The O's don't get the value of Machado if he were to be extended unless they are the ones who extend him and if they can do that why would they deal him? And to be blunt why would Machado re-sign then unless he is given more than he can get in FA? I think any team that may view him as a trade candidate does it going in that he's a rental with maybe the idea being if you get your foot in the door you have a better shot at re-signing him when FA happens. And at a rental price I think Machado is worth roughly 5 wins in future value. That is basically what a rental version of Lester returned if you subtract Gomes value and lower it a tad for Cespedes' unexpected monster 2015.

Regardless, we're probably getting ahead of ourselves. I only mentioned it because it was an interesting thought line on a day with nothing happening. But july could be really interesting. I don't think anyone saw Zobrist hitting .326/.408/.465 in the first 2 weeks and that makes his $12.5 mil 2019 salary look cheap at the moment. If he forces his way not necessarily into the starting line up but let's say into the role people thought Happ would have as a super utility guy then you suddenly have potentially interesting decisions to make on what the team will look like over the next year and a half. Like wise, if Smyly forces his way into the discussion you could end up sitting here in july with 2-3 really intriguing team controlled pieces that you could move for a big upgrade. The potential should that happen is nearly limitless.

I've literally been sitting here for awhile trying to figure the best way to express something. The issue is I'd prefer it to be more concise than the thoughts have allowed. So, what I'm about to say is vastly oversimplified from what I have typed up in various forms multiple times. Key points I wanted to make are these.

A) if Zobrist is going to be 90% or more of what he currently is doing he's going to need to play more than we thought the next 2 years.

B) If you combine just Almora's LHP stats with Heywards RHP stats you get a hitter who is 11-43(.256/.365/.488) with a 13.2% walk rate and a 5.7% k rate. Heyward is hitting .222/.353/.370(104 wRC+) this year vs RHP. With his glove that's playable today and clearly based on previous posts I think that there's more there. As sunk costs go, platooning them in CF is far from a terrible way to go. And given Maddon doesn't just platoon 2 guys in one position but rather plays guys all over they probably get more chances vs their bad split than a typical platoon.

C) Javy very well might be breaking out. Historically he can't hit RHP and he kills LHP. That's been the exact opposite this year. I think the LHP split is just the fact he has a comically low BABIP(think it was .077). If the RHP split is true it's a huge deal. I've never been his biggest supporter but when stats change I reserve the right to change my opinion.

D) Schwarber is crushing RHP at a Rizzo/Bryant level .273/.368/.606(160 wRC+)

E) Cubs biggest weakness is still vs RHP specifically in terms of batting average. Against LHP they are hitting .271/.360/.440(115 wRC+) on the season. Against RHP, they are hitting .238/.337/.426.

F) Trying to figure out a way to address the RHP issue is a clusterfuck and why I've struggled with this post. Near as I can tell there's one of like 3 options here. Russell/Happ can start hitting RHP. You can add someone new which probably means getting rid of one if not both of Russell/Happ. The last option is to do nothing and hope for the best.

When thinking about this I specifically looked at hitters over the last 3 calendar years vs RHP. Interestingly, Bryce Harper is #2 behind Trout hitting .304/.438/.605(171 wRC+). Machado is #47 hitting .280/.338/.505(124 wRC+). Other potential interesting names trade/FA wise, Josh Donaldson(.283/.383/.550 151), Daniel Murphy(.329/.379/.560 145), Brian Dozier(.254/.330/.482 115 wRC+), Jason Kipnis(.280/.354/.462 119). No one else really struck my fancy as either potentially available in a trade or soon to be FA in 2019. But if you'd like to take a look here's the link.

beckdawg said:

F) Trying to figure out a way to address the RHP issue is a clusterfuck and why I've struggled with this post. Near as I can tell there's one of like 3 options here. Russell/Happ can start hitting RHP. You can add someone new which probably means getting rid of one if not both of Russell/Happ. The last option is to do nothing and hope for the best.

When thinking about this I specifically looked at hitters over the last 3 calendar years vs RHP. Interestingly, Bryce Harper is #2 behind Trout hitting .304/.438/.605(171 wRC+). Machado is #47 hitting .280/.338/.505(124 wRC+). Other potential interesting names trade/FA wise, Josh Donaldson(.283/.383/.550 151), Daniel Murphy(.329/.379/.560 145), Brian Dozier(.254/.330/.482 115 wRC+), Jason Kipnis(.280/.354/.462 119). No one else really struck my fancy as either potentially available in a trade or soon to be FA in 2019. But if you'd like to take a look here's the link.

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I said during ST that it wouldnt surprise me if on opening day next year , they have 2 or 3 new position players in the lineup..

This is basically year 4 for most of these guys, so if they dont step up and show some consistency with the bat..
Epstein just may look elsewhere

I really do believe he going to go hard for Harper first and Machado as a fall back if Harper falls through

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chibears55 said:

Id love to see what Almora could do there with some consistent AB..
I wish Maddon would just give the kid a legit chance there and see what he does..


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I think that the Cubs have proven that they can score runs with out him in the middle. But no one has proven that they are a capable lead off sense Fowler.

Edit:

Almora: .353/.421/.471 as a lead off. 17 AB
Happ .205/.262/.333

My main concern with Almora is playing every day still.
.231/.286/.308 vs RHP 13 AB
.313/.389/.688 vs LHP 16 AB

His numbers always look really good because he has always been plugged in with a favored situation. Given every day play his numbers start to look more human.

In that 50 AB stint Rizzo held a .300/.373/.680 line. 5 HR's

I've always had a belief that you give the most AB's to your best hitters. I really believe that the whole power in the middle is a archaic archetype that belongs in the past with the stolen base.

Rizzo/Bryant 1/2 makes plenty of sense because they are your best hitters and you want them getting the most AB's.

CSF77 said:

I think that the Cubs have proven that they can score runs with out him in the middle. But no one has proven that they are a capable lead off sense Fowler.

Edit:

Almora: .353/.421/.471 as a lead off. 17 AB
Happ .205/.262/.333

My main concern with Almora is playing every day still.
.231/.286/.308 vs RHP 13 AB
.313/.389/.688 vs LHP 16 AB

His numbers always look really good because he has always been plugged in with a favored situation. Given every day play his numbers start to look more human.

In that 50 AB stint Rizzo held a .300/.373/.680 line. 5 HR's

I've always had a belief that you give the most AB's to your best hitters. I really believe that the whole power in the middle is a archaic archetype that belongs in the past with the stolen base.

Rizzo/Bryant 1/2 makes plenty of sense because they are your best hitters and you want them getting the most AB's.

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Their capable of scoring runs but are very inconsistent at it..

Not just about needing him to solely help provide offense at the top..

More about giving the kid , who we know gives them solid defense in CF a real opportunity to play everyday and actually see how he does..

I think after 3 yrs he earned that opportunity

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Are they going to play tonight? Game time temps will be like 35 and windy.

Tomorrow could get an inch of snow.

I think they just have to tough it out.

chibears55 said:

Their capable of scoring runs but are very inconsistent at it..

Not just about needing him to solely help provide offense at the top..

More about giving the kid , who we know gives them solid defense in CF a real opportunity to play everyday and actually see how he does..

I think after 3 yrs he earned that opportunity

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I agree with him being the starting CF. Not the lead off.

Rizzo
Bryant
Zobrist
Contreras
Schwarber
Baez

Should be your starting 6 every day. Zo moves around as needed. The rest are plug and play based off of match up

I'll put my 2 cents in. I love Almora but he can't and shouldn't be leading off vs RHP. You wanna do so vs LHP by all means as he's killing it(.313/.389/.688). But vs RHP? Yeah that's not so hot(.231/.286/.308). Honestly if it were me I wouldn't fuck around. I'd just put Zobrist up there and be done with it. I was worried about Zobrist eating time for young guys before the season but seeing him actually hit this year I changed my mind. Guy can still rake and even if he falls off a tad he's still the best option they have vs RHP.

More interesting question to me is how much you play Almora vs RHP. Schwarber crushes RHP and Heyward is not all that bad. Thus far anyways Happ really isn't better vs RHP this year than Almora and neither is Russell. So, for my money I think you can argue the line up vs RHP could/should be Contreras, Rizzo, Zobrist(2B), Baez(SS), Bryant, Heyward, Almora, Schwarber. I suppose you could mix and match some with Heyward in CF and Zobrist in RF with Happ/Russell playing as you desire at 2B/SS opposite Baez. But I don't know I just feel like Almora is going to get to RHP faster than Russell at this point and Happ's K rate scares the shit out of me. He's currently sitting at a career rate of 33.8%(hitting .237/.324/.505) vs RHP.

One thing I will point out on a small sample with Almora is his walk rate vs RHP is 7.1% That's coming some what at a cost to his K rate(28.6%) but if he works out some of those k rate issues while keeping the walk rate it'll be a big deal for him. On his career he's a .273/.299/.410 hitter vs RHP which if his walk rate was more than 3.8%(with a k rate of19.2%) would actually be pretty not bad. A 7% walk rate and he's likely in the .330 OBP range.

beckdawg said:

I'll put my 2 cents in. I love Almora but he can't and shouldn't be leading off vs RHP. You wanna do so vs LHP by all means as he's killing it(.313/.389/.688). But vs RHP? Yeah that's not so hot(.231/.286/.308). Honestly if it were me I wouldn't fuck around. I'd just put Zobrist up there and be done with it. I was worried about Zobrist eating time for young guys before the season but seeing him actually hit this year I changed my mind. Guy can still rake and even if he falls off a tad he's still the best option they have vs RHP.

More interesting question to me is how much you play Almora vs RHP. Schwarber crushes RHP and Heyward is not all that bad. Thus far anyways Happ really isn't better vs RHP this year than Almora and neither is Russell. So, for my money I think you can argue the line up vs RHP could/should be Contreras, Rizzo, Zobrist(2B), Baez(SS), Bryant, Heyward, Almora, Schwarber. I suppose you could mix and match some with Heyward in CF and Zobrist in RF with Happ/Russell playing as you desire at 2B/SS opposite Baez. But I don't know I just feel like Almora is going to get to RHP faster than Russell at this point and Happ's K rate scares the shit out of me. He's currently sitting at a career rate of 33.8%(hitting .237/.324/.505) vs RHP.

One thing I will point out on a small sample with Almora is his walk rate vs RHP is 7.1% That's coming some what at a cost to his K rate(28.6%) but if he works out some of those k rate issues while keeping the walk rate it'll be a big deal for him. On his career he's a .273/.299/.410 hitter vs RHP which if his walk rate was more than 3.8%(with a k rate of19.2%) would actually be pretty not bad. A 7% walk rate and he's likely in the .330 OBP range.

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I agree with Zo leading off but he has been very solid as a 3 hitter and is pretty clutch with his contact rate.

The thing with Rizzo is he has been very low with his SO and his OBA is constantly sitting at .400.

Now when the line up was more raw you really couldn’t justify moving Rizzo out of a RBI slot but with the emergence of Contreras, Schwarber and Baez it gives that sense of security that really has not been seen.

The real question is how to play Baez and Zo every day? I’m almost to the point of saying platoon Russell and Heyward and shift Baez and Zobrist to either up SS D or RF D. Which means GB Pitcher vs flyball pitcher on the mound. Vs a R/L match up as neither are a factor on O

At this moment, he is looking a lot more like he did two years ago and a lot less than he looked last year. So it's pretty obvious that his wrist was bothering him far more than he was letting on, Zobrist should lead off....switch hitter, good eye, will take pitches...only things he lacks is speed and a position. To that end....I'e finally hit the end of my support for Heyward. That's where Zobrist should be plugged in....Heyward turns into a very expensive defensive replacement and fill in. It's just painful to watch him hit. He stands so damn far from home plate....you'd think he'd realize that even when he gets a pitch piped, it will just be a lazy fly ball because the ball is hitting near the end of his bat.

Diehardfan said:

At this moment, he is looking a lot more like he did two years ago and a lot less than he looked last year. So it's pretty obvious that his wrist was bothering him far more than he was letting on, Zobrist should lead off....switch hitter, good eye, will take pitches...only things he lacks is speed and a position. To that end....I'e finally hit the end of my support for Heyward. That's where Zobrist should be plugged in....Heyward turns into a very expensive defensive replacement and fill in. It's just painful to watch him hit. He stands so damn far from home plate....you'd think he'd realize that even when he gets a pitch piped, it will just be a lazy fly ball because the ball is hitting near the end of his bat.

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Heyward is making E.Jax’s contract look good.

Seem like a trend from Theo. When ever he makes a deal that looks head scratcher. Like signing E.Jax in a rebuild vs doing the rental which worked out great on flips. Or signing a hitter when your draft has been full of them.

It just seems when a deal seems ill-advised it is.

https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/986320704630067200?s=19

Looks to be same lineup as Sunday with Rizzo in it today..



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beckdawg said:

I'll put my 2 cents in. I love Almora but he can't and shouldn't be leading off vs RHP. You wanna do so vs LHP by all means as he's killing it(.313/.389/.688). But vs RHP? Yeah that's not so hot(.231/.286/.308). Honestly if it were me I wouldn't fuck around. I'd just put Zobrist up there and be done with it. I was worried about Zobrist eating time for young guys before the season but seeing him actually hit this year I changed my mind. Guy can still rake and even if he falls off a tad he's still the best option they have vs RHP.

More interesting question to me is how much you play Almora vs RHP. Schwarber crushes RHP and Heyward is not all that bad. Thus far anyways Happ really isn't better vs RHP this year than Almora and neither is Russell. So, for my money I think you can argue the line up vs RHP could/should be Contreras, Rizzo, Zobrist(2B), Baez(SS), Bryant, Heyward, Almora, Schwarber. I suppose you could mix and match some with Heyward in CF and Zobrist in RF with Happ/Russell playing as you desire at 2B/SS opposite Baez. But I don't know I just feel like Almora is going to get to RHP faster than Russell at this point and Happ's K rate scares the shit out of me. He's currently sitting at a career rate of 33.8%(hitting .237/.324/.505) vs RHP.

One thing I will point out on a small sample with Almora is his walk rate vs RHP is 7.1% That's coming some what at a cost to his K rate(28.6%) but if he works out some of those k rate issues while keeping the walk rate it'll be a big deal for him. On his career he's a .273/.299/.410 hitter vs RHP which if his walk rate was more than 3.8%(with a k rate of19.2%) would actually be pretty not bad. A 7% walk rate and he's likely in the .330 OBP range.

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I have no problem leading off with Almora against LHers and lower in order against RHers..

I just want to see the kid get steady ABs for a week or so and see how he does..

Id be cautious a bit with Zobrist..
Yes he doing well now but i think it has more to do with him getting a couple days off after playing 1 or 2 games..
I think that the approach Maddon needs to stick with with him and not fall in the trap pf over playing him because he doing well

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Just hoping nobody ends up on the 60 day DL playing in this shit again.

pretty funny nobody wants to post the wrigley field scoreboard lineup and get punked again.

chibears55 said:

I have no problem leading off with Almora against LHers and lower in order against RHers..

I just want to see the kid get steady ABs for a week or so and see how he does..

Id be cautious a bit with Zobrist..
Yes he doing well now but i think it has more to do with him getting a couple days off after playing 1 or 2 games..
I think that the approach Maddon needs to stick with with him and not fall in the trap pf over playing him because he doing well

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He's 36 not 66....they're playing baseball, not digging ditches. He'll be fine.

Diehardfan said:

He's 36 not 66....they're playing baseball, not digging ditches. He'll be fine.

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He 36 and at the end of his baseball career... he not an everyday player now, he shown to be better after a couple days off..

My post had nothing to do with his age or being old

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https://twitter.com/NBCSCubs/status/986383183456464897?s=19

Part of why Zobrist needs days off..

No he not 66 but his body old for baseball at 36

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