I posted this yesterday in another thread which i'm pretty sure you saw since you commented on him after my post. He could be a great pick at #39 for us.
The Not-So-Secret Sleeper Among Edge-Rushers
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
Ogbonnia OkoronkwoAssociated Press
There are many difficulties with performing statistical analysis on college edge-rushers. Sacks are relatively rare, which can distort results. Blockers range from future NFL starters to pudgy future high school phys ed teachers. Many top edge-rushers rack up big sack totals against Middle Nowhere State or benefit from schemes that give them unblocked paths to the quarterback. Others are double-teamed on every snap.
There are several methods for sidestepping these problems. One is to meld analysis with game study. Anthony Chiado does just that each year for the Optimum Scouting Draft Guide, tracking how often each top pass-rusher is double-teamed, how often he's unblocked, where he lines up, which of his pass-rush moves are most successful and so forth.
NC State's Bradley Chubb looks as solid as you might expect in the breakdowns. Marcus Davenport of Texas-San Antonio blows the field away, albeit against lower competition levels. But Chiado's research uncovers a variety of secrets about other edge-rushers, most notably Oklahoma's Ogbonnia Okoronkwo.
Okoronkwo pressed opposing quarterbacks on 25.4 percent of passing plays, second only to Davenport. He was rarely unblocked (just 3.6 percent of his pressures) and beat his opponent with some sort of countermove 25.0 percent of the time.
The countermoves reveal Okoronkwo's ability to do more than just explode out the gate and beat a left tackle to the edge. The Optimum Scouting analysis quantifies Okoronkwo's ability to work through blocks and find alternate routes to the quarterback, two important skills for success as an NFL pass-rusher.
Okoronkwo also performed well at the combine and the Senior Bowl and was a major-program superstar, so he's hardly a "sleeper." Analytics aren't just about evaluating players but also describing them in more precise and useful terms than "he's explosive" or "he's a winner."
(And if you are protesting that counting double-teams and countermoves is scouting, not Moneyball, then here's a news flash: That's a false distinction. Good analysis and careful observation always go hand-in-hand. It's when one rejects the other that teams start making foolish decisions.)
