What's going on with Javy Baez?

fatbeard

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So I was wondering why Baez was hitting the cover off the ball, and dug into some of the numbers. It turns out he's kinda weird right now, and I'm still not sure what it means. It could be that he's just locked in and seeing pitches well right now, or it could be that he's made some kind of swing adjustment and we can expect these results going forward:

Let's take a look at his plate discipline.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12979&position=2B/SS#platediscipline

I was surprised by this, because it seemed like his plate discipline had markedly improved this year, particularly against the slider low & away. It turns out that's not really the case. He doesn't appear to have changed his approach at all (at least that's not borne out by the data yet). In fact, he's swinging at more pitches than ever, while making the same amount of contact. The biggest difference I see is he's swinging at more pitches in the zone (80.2%), but making the same amount of contact. So, while Baez's K% has improved, it's not necessarily because he's gotten better at laying off balls, he's just swinging at more actual strikes and putting those balls into play. Basically, he's taking fewer called strikes and fewer called 3rd strikes.

But is he getting better at laying off the slider?

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12979&position=2B/SS#pitchtype

More than anything, it seems he's faced a different pitch mix so far. He's seen fewer sliders than normal, and many more cutters. So maybe he really isn't handling the slider "better", he's just had a fortunate mix of pitchers on the young season who don't throw it as much. We'll have to wait for a bigger sample size here, I think.

So, what's the difference?

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12979&position=2B/SS#battedball

Well, to put it bluntly: He's just hitting the shit out of the ball. His LD% is way up (although not historically) and his GB% is way down. He's still pulling the ball frequently but when he does it's resulting in fewer ground balls and more line drives and fly balls. His HR/FB% is unsustainable (he's just not going to slug .700 on the year). He's going to the opposite field more than the past few years. He's hitting everything hard. His hard contact is at 40% (which is excellent), instead of his usual 32% (about average). In short, he's squaring everything up.

What does this all mean? Are we seeing a "new' Javy? Like I said, he's a little weird right now, and it's hard to tell whether this is just a torrid streak or a permanent development. It may be that Davis has tweaked his swing, resulting in more line drives/fly balls and more hard contact. That, combined with Baez swinging at more pitches in the zone and the evolution of his natural bat speed/control, could explain what we've seen so far this year. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
 

JP Hochbaum

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Being aggressive in the zone is what has been drilled into him from day one. Sometimes it sinks in when it comes from a different source.
 

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