2018 MLB Draft

CSF77

CSF77

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A 33 round guy was a long shot anyways. Guys in those rounds are HS kids on garentee commits to major baseball programs. There was 0% chance he would sign and it was a pick used due to a lack of talent that deep into the draft.

I wouldnt be concerned on these guys signing
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
A 33 round guy was a long shot anyways. Guys in those rounds are HS kids on garentee commits to major baseball programs. There was 0% chance he would sign and it was a pick used due to a lack of talent that deep into the draft.

I wouldnt be concerned on these guys signing
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They aren't that long of a shot. Mitchell Parker was taken in the 28th round, has a u of tenn committment.... or did and there's a good chance he signs. Plus, if you look at alot of the players they drafted in the first 10 rounds they look like potential money saving guys. They've only signed 3 for sure afaik and nico hoerner is getting slot. Paul Richan is saving $312,900 and Luke Reynolds is saving $12,600. Supposedly Brennen Davis wanted 1.3-1.5 mil which is 240k-440k over slot. Chances are Reynolds and Richan already saves enough. Of the remaining guys in the first 10 rounds, roederer was drafted far enough ahead of his rating that I am safely assuming his $775,100 slot signs him. Jimmy Herron was drafted well above ranking and was a college junior. Ethan Roberts, Andy Weber, Kohl Franklin, Zach Mort and Derek Casey weren't even rated by BA/mlb.com. Kohl Franklin might take more than his $245,600 slot but the rest appear to be well below slot guys as college juniors/seniors. D.J. Artis was rated 149 and 136 by BA/MLB.com and fell a tad to 218. He's a college junior coming off a bad year so think slot or maybe a touch over should be easy enough to get him.

Point here being, it wouldn't be that shocking if they had more than ~$1 mil in under slot signing. If you assume $300k of that is going to Davis and $400k(+$125k) goes to Parker worst case, that still leaves you with the ability to offer someone like Ras roughly $425k. That's 4th round money.

Am I super upset he didn't sign? No but I thought with the way they structured the top of their draft they would have a shot to sign one or two of these interesting late round hs guys.
 
CSF77

CSF77

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I look at the draft as:

1-10 lower risk picks. Most likely will sign so college junior/seniors. Or HS talent with high chance of signing.

11-20. Higher risk guys that you might buy out their college years or raw high talent that will take more effort.

20-30 best talent available but you are shifting to depth at Azl and Eug. To fill their roster vs looking at talent.

30-40. 0% chance HS players to sign or PR picks that they did.

I really think that they should reduce the rounds myself.
 

brett05

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CSF77 said:
A 33 round guy was a long shot anyways. Guys in those rounds are HS kids on garentee commits to major baseball programs. There was 0% chance he would sign and it was a pick used due to a lack of talent that deep into the draft.

I wouldnt be concerned on these guys signing
Click to expand...

If a guy has a 0% chance to sign, the organization that drafts such a talent is a disaster.
 
CSF77

CSF77

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brett05 said:
If a guy has a 0% chance to sign, the organization that drafts such a talent is a disaster.
Click to expand...

Rounds 30-40 have a 99% chance of flaming out anyways. No one cares. After the first round it is a crap shoot but that late you can name the guys that made it.
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
I look at the draft as:

1-10 lower risk picks. Most likely will sign so college junior/seniors. Or HS talent with high chance of signing.

11-20. Higher risk guys that you might buy out their college years or raw high talent that will take more effort.

20-30 best talent available but you are shifting to depth at Azl and Eug. To fill their roster vs looking at talent.

30-40. 0% chance HS players to sign or PR picks that they did.

I really think that they should reduce the rounds myself.
Click to expand...

That's not really how it works. It's more like the first 5 rounds are picks with talent. Most of the time 6-10 are lessor guys drafted to pay for 1-5 round guys. You might like some of them but they aren't consensus guys who should be drafted in the first 300 picks. From like 11-15 can be interesting guys that were either non-guarantees to sign or slipped because of injury or w/e. Most of the guys post 15th round are just plain and simple org filler. It's less about talent and more about what position they play in order to field a team in mesa/eugene. Usually after the 25th round you will sprinkle in some HS guys. A lot wont sign. But that's entirely dependent on how you approach the top of your draft.

As for reducing the rounds that would be stupid. The reason the draft is 40 rounds is to ensure you have enough players to fill your short season rosters in rookie/a-. Sure not all teams are going to use all 40 picks but some teams might. It's difficult to predict how injuries go and you don't want to be sitting there in june with not enough guys.

Regardless, as this pertains to HS players drafted late, I don't necessarily agree that they are 0% signs. In fact I think there's a compelling case to be made for going for a number of those guys in bulk if you can work your draft that way. Just as an example, if you signed all your first 5 round picks at slot or as a group in such a way that came out to slot value, the cubs 6-10 picks were worth ~$880k. You could feasibly find 5 senior sign guys you like and offer them $5k. As a reference that's what they gave Chris Carrier and Brian Glowicki last season as senior signs. You could then effectively use the $850k plus the $125k per pick after the 10th round that doesn't count to offer basically 5th round money to 5 high school players.

That's just one example obviously. But my point here is that just because you draft a guy late doesn't mean they are impossible to sign.
 
CSF77

CSF77

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beckdawg said:
That's not really how it works. It's more like the first 5 rounds are picks with talent. Most of the time 6-10 are lessor guys drafted to pay for 1-5 round guys. You might like some of them but they aren't consensus guys who should be drafted in the first 300 picks. From like 11-15 can be interesting guys that were either non-guarantees to sign or slipped because of injury or w/e. Most of the guys post 15th round are just plain and simple org filler. It's less about talent and more about what position they play in order to field a team in mesa/eugene. Usually after the 25th round you will sprinkle in some HS guys. A lot wont sign. But that's entirely dependent on how you approach the top of your draft.

As for reducing the rounds that would be stupid. The reason the draft is 40 rounds is to ensure you have enough players to fill your short season rosters in rookie/a-. Sure not all teams are going to use all 40 picks but some teams might. It's difficult to predict how injuries go and you don't want to be sitting there in june with not enough guys.

Regardless, as this pertains to HS players drafted late, I don't necessarily agree that they are 0% signs. In fact I think there's a compelling case to be made for going for a number of those guys in bulk if you can work your draft that way. Just as an example, if you signed all your first 5 round picks at slot or as a group in such a way that came out to slot value, the cubs 6-10 picks were worth ~$880k. You could feasibly find 5 senior sign guys you like and offer them $5k. As a reference that's what they gave Chris Carrier and Brian Glowicki last season as senior signs. You could then effectively use the $850k plus the $125k per pick after the 10th round that doesn't count to offer basically 5th round money to 5 high school players.

That's just one example obviously. But my point here is that just because you draft a guy late doesn't mean they are impossible to sign.
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Kinda factors but you are also pooling from the DR leagues and intl draft not to mention hold overs. 40 rounds is kinda extreme.
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
Kinda factors but you are also pooling from the DR leagues and intl draft not to mention hold overs. 40 rounds is kinda extreme.
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It's really not. The draft used to be even longer. Thing is you can only have I think it's 30 players at your international academies. Now sure a team like the cubs has 2 DSL teams. But not every org does. In fact most teams don't have 2 DSL teams. Plus where's the harm? Carl Edwards was a 48th round pick. What you need to understand about scouting is often times scouts only get a handful of looks on guys unless they are the tippy top of the charts. You draft more than you will need because often times guys will surprise you both good and bad. You give some guys a chance to play for 2-3 months and those that aren't good enough get cut. Most of the time they will be org filler but sometimes you'll be surprised.

As another example, Ben Zobrist was undrafted. He paid $50 to go to a try out thinking he would get one more day of baseball then get a real job. Actually think he was going to go into the church so maybe priest school or w/e but point is he caught someone's eye at that try out and the rest is history. Guys like Zobrist and Edwards prove that even with 1200 picks you miss talent.
 

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7th-rder D.J. Artis signs w/@Cubs for $250k (pick 218 value = $192,500). Liberty OF, plus runner, definite CF, unorthodox lefty stance but gets on base & puts up numbers. @MLBDraft
 

beckdawg

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chibears55 said:
https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/1007423263201513472?s=19

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
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Cheaper than I thought he'd cost but that's good. With apparently 5 of their 12 slot valued picks signed they are +$228,900. And of the remaining guys only Roederer and Franklin strike me as guys that might require more than slot. The most they've given a SR sign guy other than Stinnett who was their #2 pick since 2014 was $50k(Berg). So, Think it's safe to assume that they will save another $100k on Derek Casey(9th round). Zach Mort, Andy Weber and Ethan Roberts all strike me as guys who could also save you some money. Depending on what Roederer and Franklin sign for wouldn't shock me if they have around ~$1 mil in bonus money after the first 10 round sign to add in. Mitchell Parker is going to take a fair amount of money. I seem to recall reading he expected to go in the 4th round which is like $500k. If that's what he wants you can offer $125k without cost which would still leave close to $600k which is a fairly sizable chunk to offer.... whom I'm unsure. That's why I thought Ras might be in play. Riley Thompson could be one guy. And wouldn't surprise me much if the two guys they drafted from puerto rico signed possibly for more than the $125k given the sad state of the island after the hurricane.
 
CSF77

CSF77

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beckdawg said:
Cheaper than I thought he'd cost but that's good. With apparently 5 of their 12 slot valued picks signed they are +$228,900. And of the remaining guys only Roederer and Franklin strike me as guys that might require more than slot. The most they've given a SR sign guy other than Stinnett who was their #2 pick since 2014 was $50k(Berg). So, Think it's safe to assume that they will save another $100k on Derek Casey(9th round). Zach Mort, Andy Weber and Ethan Roberts all strike me as guys who could also save you some money. Depending on what Roederer and Franklin sign for wouldn't shock me if they have around ~$1 mil in bonus money after the first 10 round sign to add in. Mitchell Parker is going to take a fair amount of money. I seem to recall reading he expected to go in the 4th round which is like $500k. If that's what he wants you can offer $125k without cost which would still leave close to $600k which is a fairly sizable chunk to offer.... whom I'm unsure. That's why I thought Ras might be in play. Riley Thompson could be one guy. And wouldn't surprise me much if the two guys they drafted from puerto rico signed possibly for more than the $125k given the sad state of the island after the hurricane.
Click to expand...

If they just end up with the first 2 picks and some filler types they will be doing fine.
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
If they just end up with the first 2 picks and some filler types they will be doing fine.
Click to expand...

You take a rather pessimistic view of the draft. Real value comes out of post 10th round picks. Rollie Lacy was an 11th round pick last year. I'm hearing very good things about Luis Vazquez who was a HS puerto rico sign last year. Jared Young was a 15h round pick and he's hitting .293/.353/.495 at south bend. Rucker was an 11th round pick in 2016.Zack Short is fairly well regarded as a 17th round guy. Matt Swarmer was a 19th round pick. Matt Rose was an 11th round guy who was dealt in the Q trade. Ian Rice was a 29th round pick. Kevonte Mitchell was a 13th round guy. Chesny Young was a 14th round guy. Jason Vosler was a 16th round guy.

Are you gonna pull Mike Trout out of the 11th round? Of course not but cubs need to bring in hitting depth. If they get their hitting depth to the level their pitching depth is then you can start to gamble a bit more on higher upside guys. That's how you rebuild your system. You don't do that by landing 2 picks out of 40.
 
CSF77

CSF77

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Lacy has great ball movement. He has great control but little command. Which works for him.

This is something Chatwood should strive to master also with his harder velocity.

But in theory Lacy is in the strike zone most of the time but the pitch can be wild inside of it. Then you add a dancing fastball with a late darting action that can shoot anywhere it compounds the effectively wild theory.

Now he is sitting at 89-91 which is a tick above Hendricks but as you see a diffrent pitcher.
 

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beckdawg said:
It's really not. The draft used to be even longer. Thing is you can only have I think it's 30 players at your international academies. Now sure a team like the cubs has 2 DSL teams. But not every org does. In fact most teams don't have 2 DSL teams. Plus where's the harm? Carl Edwards was a 48th round pick. What you need to understand about scouting is often times scouts only get a handful of looks on guys unless they are the tippy top of the charts. You draft more than you will need because often times guys will surprise you both good and bad. You give some guys a chance to play for 2-3 months and those that aren't good enough get cut. Most of the time they will be org filler but sometimes you'll be surprised.

As another example, Ben Zobrist was undrafted. He paid $50 to go to a try out thinking he would get one more day of baseball then get a real job. Actually think he was going to go into the church so maybe priest school or w/e but point is he caught someone's eye at that try out and the rest is history. Guys like Zobrist and Edwards prove that even with 1200 picks you miss talent.
Click to expand...
Ben Zobrist was a 6th round draft pick of the Astros in 2004. Zobrist did not have any offers to play college baseball after finishing his HS Senior season and thought he would be going into ministry work, as his father is a pastor. There was a showcase held for Peoria IL area talent. Olivet Nazarene (NAIA) was interested. He played for them 3 years and transferred to Dallas Baptist when it jumped to D1 as a program.
 

beckdawg

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Looking like they have signed him. He was a 34th rounder out of PR high school
 
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