IFA start tomorrow

beckdawg

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Mentioned this in the prospect thread but figure most don't go there and given its going to be topical and people probably wonder who the fuck these guys are why not make a topic for it.

So far I've heard the cubs connected to 4 names

Richard Gallardo - arguably the top starter in this class who's likely to get $800k
Joel Machado - top lefty pitcher in this class though he's more back end of the top 30 and not likely to be a "star" who's likely to get $400k
Jose Lopez - toolsy CF who's got a shot at 5 tools who's likely to get $1.5 mil
Rafael Morel - younger brother of a guy they signed 2 years ago. He's a SS but no word on likely cost. It wont be more than $1 mil I think.

Where this gets interesting is there's still a guy who's yet to verbally agree with a team out of cuba. That's Victor Victor Mesa(yes 2 victors). People compare him to Victor Robles. He's probably the highest rated guy in the last at the moment as a CF with great defense. Think i saw someone compare him to a better version of Almora.

As things stand, cubs can spend like $4.7 mil IIRC. They can trade for additional money up to close to $9 mil IIRC.
 

chibears55

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Anyone see anything with victor victor mesa yet

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CubsFaninMN

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You have to love the sheer, childlike innocence of the people jumping up and down in the replies who seem unable to distinguish between people with the same last names but different first names. I refer to the "We got Machado and Russell is still here! :)" quote, among others.

Umm... there's a tiny little difference between Manny and Joel. If talent simply came with a last name, you could just populate your team with 25 guys with the last name Ruth... ;)
 

beckdawg

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Read some where think CCO that Rafael Morel is probably going to play CF. They also signed Yohendrick Pinango for $400k. I got nothing on him but will update if I read anything. It's REALLY hard to find info on guys outside the top 30 or so names though. IFA is just a weird process because most of these guys agree to deals so early and then some of them have growth spurts. For example, was listening to a podcast from the fangraphs guys and they were talking about one of the cubs guys last year Luis Verdugo who added 8-10 pounds of lean muscle seemingly over a few week period. That allowed his profile to play up some.

Also of note that I didn't realize is the cubs added a second rookie league team in Mesa this year. That gives them 4 rookie level affiliates. Last year I believe only 8 of the 30 MLB clubs had 4 rookie league affiliates. I had a lot more typed up on this but to summarize basically that's important to note because it gives you more roster slots for lottery ticket types. Typically your rookie league in mesa is draft picks or graduated DSL players from the prior year. Occasionally super talented guys like Eloy/Gleyber will start in Mesa. The rest of the IFAs go to the DSL.

Up until recently I think largely that structure was fine. However, once the new rules with IFA's came down in i wanna say 2013 and then later in 2016 the way you approached signing guys was different because there were caps. Long story short here, one of the game theory plays I've heard prospect guys talk about is the idea of signing a bunch of cheaper guys. Guys like Ronald Acuna, Victor Robles, and Sixto Sanchez were all under $300k signings. The downside to that play is roster space is limited.

Given the cubs couldn't spend more than $300k the past 2 years I'm curious if that played a roll in their decision. It looks like Cubs 1 in the AZ league is basically the A+ version of the DSL where guys who aren't ready for A- go after a year in dsl. There's only 3 guys i recognize as being 2018 draft picks on that team and those are more than likely just guys filling the roster rather than there by choice. Most of the "star" picks in the draft are at Cubs 2 or have already been pushed to A-.
 

beckdawg

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Anyone see anything with victor victor mesa yet

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I don't think he'll sign quickly. From what I know of the situation he's supposed to have a work out soon. The issue with him isn't so much him. It's that teams commit well in advance to the signing date a large portion of their slot money. For example, teams are probably already lining up guys for 2019 and will have verbals before the end of the year. So, when you get defectors who weren't anticipated to be part of the class that throws a wrench into things sort of the say way Ohtani did. Teams who want him are likely going to agree to a price then they will have to go out and trade for the money with a team like balt who doesn't use their money.

I've also read he may wait until next signing period to sign if the money isn't there because of what i just said.
 

CSF77

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Read some where think CCO that Rafael Morel is probably going to play CF. They also signed Yohendrick Pinango for $400k. I got nothing on him but will update if I read anything. It's REALLY hard to find info on guys outside the top 30 or so names though. IFA is just a weird process because most of these guys agree to deals so early and then some of them have growth spurts. For example, was listening to a podcast from the fangraphs guys and they were talking about one of the cubs guys last year Luis Verdugo who added 8-10 pounds of lean muscle seemingly over a few week period. That allowed his profile to play up some.

Also of note that I didn't realize is the cubs added a second rookie league team in Mesa this year. That gives them 4 rookie level affiliates. Last year I believe only 8 of the 30 MLB clubs had 4 rookie league affiliates. I had a lot more typed up on this but to summarize basically that's important to note because it gives you more roster slots for lottery ticket types. Typically your rookie league in mesa is draft picks or graduated DSL players from the prior year. Occasionally super talented guys like Eloy/Gleyber will start in Mesa. The rest of the IFAs go to the DSL.

Up until recently I think largely that structure was fine. However, once the new rules with IFA's came down in i wanna say 2013 and then later in 2016 the way you approached signing guys was different because there were caps. Long story short here, one of the game theory plays I've heard prospect guys talk about is the idea of signing a bunch of cheaper guys. Guys like Ronald Acuna, Victor Robles, and Sixto Sanchez were all under $300k signings. The downside to that play is roster space is limited.

Given the cubs couldn't spend more than $300k the past 2 years I'm curious if that played a roll in their decision. It looks like Cubs 1 in the AZ league is basically the A+ version of the DSL where guys who aren't ready for A- go after a year in dsl. There's only 3 guys i recognize as being 2018 draft picks on that team and those are more than likely just guys filling the roster rather than there by choice. Most of the "star" picks in the draft are at Cubs 2 or have already been pushed to A-.

Think the DSL starts at 16 YO and they move up to Mesa when they hit 18. That is why they have 2 DSL teams. 16 YO and 17 YO. If they progress.

The 2 Mesa teams is interesting but I just believe that they have the excess players to justify it.
 

beckdawg

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Think the DSL starts at 16 YO and they move up to Mesa when they hit 18. That is why they have 2 DSL teams. 16 YO and 17 YO. If they progress.

The 2 Mesa teams is interesting but I just believe that they have the excess players to justify it.

DSL doesn't really have to do with age. I mean to an extent yes because you don't want to over match a 16 year old vs 18 year olds but it's not as though advanced 16 year olds can't start in mesa. There is no rule stopping it. For example, https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa3006900&position=2B

He's in Mesa right now. The way it typically works is guys that have just signed don't even play til next year. So, the guys who are in the DSL start at 17 because you have to be 16 to sign and it's always a year plus that before they play. As for when they move up to mesa that's more dependent on performance. Honestly a lot of guys never will and just will be released. The way to think about this is that you have 2 DSL teams sure but every year you're sending probably 15-20 guys from the draft to mesa and prior to having 2 teams that meant you only had like 10 guys you could pull from 2 DSL teams. That often means you have 18-20 year old pitchers still in DSL but hitters will often just get cut to make room for new guys after they turn 18 if they don't move up.
 

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