NFC North: Packers have easiest schedule in the NFC

DrGonzo

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2. Chicago Bears
Schedule difficulty rating: 95.75

Easiest stretch: There were four quarterbacks who got selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft and there's a chance that the Bears will be facing three of them over a seven-week stretch where they could definitely rack up some up some wins. Starting in Week 3, the Bears' schedule looks like this: At Cardinals, Buccaneers, bye, at Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, at Bills. If you don't count the Patriots, every other team in that stretch currently has some huge question marks. For one, the Cardinals, Jets and Bills could all be starting rookies by the time they play the Bears. As for the Dolphins, they have a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill who hasn't taken a regular-season snap since 2016. Oh, and the Buccaneers are also having some quarterback issues. The game against Tampa is in Week 4, which theoretically means that it could end up being Jameis Winston's first game back from suspension. Since Winston won't be able to practice with the Bucs during the suspension, the Bears would see a rusty quarterback when they host Tampa.

Roughest stretch: If the NFL scheduling office was hoping to ruin the holiday season for Bears fans around the country, it almost certainly got the job done. Over the final four weeks of the season, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Bears go winless and that's because they have a December gauntlet. Starting in Week 14, the Bears have consecutive games against the Rams, Packers, 49ers (away) and the Vikings (away). The silver lining here for the Bears is that ... you know what, let's not get anyone's hopes up, there's no silver lining here.

Weird scheduling note: The Bears are basically going to become an honorary member of the AFC East this year. Starting in Week 6, the Bears will face all four teams in the division over a period of four weeks. If the Bears were to sweep that stretch, they could add an "AFC East Champs" T-shirt to the collection they started last year after going 4-0 against the AFC North.

...

If you're thinking about picking a team from the NFC to win the the Super Bowl this season, this might actually be the year you'll want to go ahead and pick the Packers.

For one, Tony Romo is already locked in on them, and if we learned one thing about Romo last year, it's that he's almost never wrong about anything.

"I think the Packers probably got better, maybe more than any team I saw this offseason," Romo recently told WTMJ-TV in Milwaukee. "If the secondary is a little bit better, I think they're the team to beat this year."

4. Green Bay Packers
Schedule difficulty rating: 86.25

Easiest stretch: The Packers actually have two easiest stretches, which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, since they have the easiest schedule in the NFC. The Packers will be playing three of their first four games at home (Chicago, Minnesota, at Washington, Buffalo), which means there's a good chance they could get off to a hot start. Although the Minnesota game won't be easy, the Packers do have a small advantage in that Kirk Cousins will be playing only his second game ever for the Vikings. If Cousins isn't comfortable yet in Minnesota's offense, that could turn into a Green Bay rout.

As for the other easy stretch, Green Bay could end up running the table during the final month of the season and that's because the Packers have a December schedule that's basically an early Christmas gift from the NFL (Arizona, Atlanta, at Chicago, at NY Jets, Detroit). Before we move on, please take a second and look at those three home games. Can you guess what they have in common? They're all being played against domed teams. That's right, the NFL is sending three domed teams to Green Bay in December, which is basically the last place that any domed team wants to play during the coldest month of the football season. The first problem for the Cardinals, Falcons and Lions is that Rodgers is 15-0 in December home games dating back to 2009. The second problem for the three teams is that they are all .500 or worse in their past 10 December road games played outdoors (The Falcons and Lions are 4-6, the Cardinals are 5-5).

Roughest stretch: Although the Packers have the easiest schedule in the NFC, they still have one absolutely brutal stretch this season. Starting in Week 8, the Packers will play four games on the road in five weeks and if that sounds tough, just wait until you hear who they play. The stretch includes road games against the Rams (Week 8), the Patriots (Week 9), the Seahawks (Week 11) and the Vikings (Week 12) with all of those -- except for the L.A. game -- scheduled to air in primetime. Oh, and did we mention the Seahawks game is on a Thursday, which means the Packers will have to fly halfway across the country to play a game on three days rest. The breather in all of this will come in Week 10, when the Packers host the Dolphins. The good news for the Packers is that they have a bye in Week 7, which means they'll have an extra week to get healthy before starting their nightmare stretch.

Link to full article:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...rth-packers-have-easiest-schedule-in-the-nfc/
 

bearmick

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I don't understand how there can be such a difference between the schedules of teams in a given division. They play identical schedules except for the two games where they play the teams that finished in the same position as them in the divisions they don't play in their conference.

Maybe it's that the head-to-head matchups make it an easier schedule for the Packers, since they're against the Bears?
 

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I don't understand how there can be such a difference between the schedules of teams in a given division. They play identical schedules except for the two games where they play the teams that finished in the same position as them in the divisions they don't play in their conference.

Maybe it's that the head-to-head matchups make it an easier schedule for the Packers, since they're against the Bears?

More importantly, how do you know the strength of schedule before you play the schedule??? You're not going to know how strong your schedule is until after you play it.
 

Da Coach

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Basing your strength of schedule on teams performances from a prior year really is ambiguous. No one knows how well anyone will perform in this new year and injuries always play a major factor like the Packers dealt with last year.

Inevitably some terrible team like the Browns or even Bears will win a bunch of games and blow that theoretical easy schedule out the window

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xer0h0ur

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More importantly, how do you know the strength of schedule before you play the schedule??? You're not going to know how strong your schedule is until after you play it.

This. Strength of schedule is only ever worth talking about after week 17 once all games of the regular season have been played. Projections are so damn useless.
 

Tostada

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I don't understand how there can be such a difference between the schedules of teams in a given division. They play identical schedules except for the two games where they play the teams that finished in the same position as them in the divisions they don't play in their conference.

Maybe it's that the head-to-head matchups make it an easier schedule for the Packers, since they're against the Bears?

It's the travel and setup. GB plays 3 of its first 4 games at home, it's one away game is against the Redskins. Nice setup to start the season.
 

DrGonzo

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I don't put much stock in anyone's "calculation" of strength of schedule either. But it's that super dull time of year (for football, not sports in general) and I thought this might be worth discussing, especially their prediction of picking the Packers to win it all based on "Tony Romo said so."

It will be more difficult than usual to predict how the Bears will do on any given Sunday, given how much has changed in one offseason. As a young team with an inexperienced QB, many new players, and a new offensive staff and scheme, I think it's reasonable to expect they will upset some heavily favored teams and lose to some that appear "weak" on the schedule now.
 

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More importantly, how do you know the strength of schedule before you play the schedule??? You're not going to know how strong your schedule is until after you play it.

Pretty much. Only team that I "fear" is the Patriots and fucking Cutler ripped them up last year. Strength of schedule is a joke
 

Starion

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This. Strength of schedule is only ever worth talking about after week 17 once all games of the regular season have been played. Projections are so damn useless.

It's something to consider, but not heavily. You're right that it's MUCH more meaningful when looking back...like say...for the Bears last year who ended up having THE HARDEST S.O.S. in 2017 once all was wrapped up. Still lost 7 games by a TD, 4 by a FG or less. :thinking:


Clearly not as bad this year PRESUMABLY, based on last year's #s that is.
 

Tostada

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Pretty much. Only team that I "fear" is the Patriots and fucking Cutler ripped them up last year. Strength of schedule is a joke

You're right, New season, Patriots or Browns ... Same difference.
 

xer0h0ur

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It's something to consider, but not heavily. You're right that it's MUCH more meaningful when looking back...like say...for the Bears last year who ended up having THE HARDEST S.O.S. in 2017 once all was wrapped up. Still lost 7 games by a TD, 4 by a FG or less. :thinking:


Clearly not as bad this year PRESUMABLY, based on last year's #s that is.

4th most difficult when it was all said and done. It was only the most difficult if you were talking about SoS before the games were played.
 

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The strength of schedule will change drastically after week 2 when we see how good the teams actually are.
 

Noonthirtyjoe

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Here is the thing that I just don't get. Romo says "I think the Packers probably got better, maybe more than any team I saw this offseason. lol is Romo on drugs? If they improved at all it will be by the tiniest margin. Meanwhile our Bears got much much better as a team and much much better as a coaching staff. DaBears improved more then any team in the league and it's not really close. Rams 2nd. Romo is a homer I get that but what he said is funny and should be made fun of. The Pack's possible improvement would put them as one of the least improved teams in the league. Hey Romo I think the Seahawks are the most improved team this year. See I do drugs too.
 

nc0gnet0

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I don't understand how there can be such a difference between the schedules of teams in a given division. They play identical schedules except for the two games where they play the teams that finished in the same position as them in the divisions they don't play in their conference.

Maybe it's that the head-to-head matchups make it an easier schedule for the Packers, since they're against the Bears?

LOL, I said the same thing in another thread. Is there even a clear consensus of how to rate the SOS? For instance in this article, the lions have the third easiest schedule in the division, yet in another article it states they have the second hardest SoS in the league? Makes no sense, just click bait articles,

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...s-have-it-easiest-packers-face-roughest-ride/
 

Starion

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4th most difficult when it was all said and done. It was only the most difficult if you were talking about SoS before the games were played.

I'm gonna have to disagree. State your source.

Admittedly it was hard to find the real #s on AFTER season SOS, but Bears had it toughest:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/the-bears-played-the-hardest-schedule-in-2017-jaguars-and-titans-had-it-easiest/

2017 Strength of Schedule
(Team, record, opponent winning percentage)

1. Bears, 5-11 (.559): Fired their coach
2. Buccaneers, 5-11 (.555)
T-3. Dolphins, 6-10 (.543)
T-3. Falcons, 10-6 (.543): Made playoffs
T-5. Panthers, 11-5 (.539): Made playoffs
T-5. Packers, 7-9 (.539)
T-5. Redskins, 7-9 (.539)
8. Saints, 11-5 (.536): Made playoffs
9. Giants, 3-13 (.531): Fired their coach
T-10. Jets, 5-11 (.520)
T-10. Browns, 0-16 (.520)
12. Texans, 4-12 (.516)
T-13. Raiders, 6-10 (.512): Fired their coach
T-13. 49ers, 6-10 (.512)
15. Rams, 11-5 (.504): Made playoffs
T-16. Lions, 9-7 (.496): Fired their coach
T-16. Cowboys, 9-7 (.496)
T-18. Bills, 9-7 (.492): Made playoffs
T-18. Broncos, 5-11 (.492)
T-18. Vikings, 13-3 (.492): Made playoffs
T-18. Seahawks, 9-7 (.492)
22. Cardinals, 8-8 (.488): Coach retired
23. Patriots, 13-3 (.484): Made playoffs
24. Colts, 4-12 (.480): Fired their coach
25. Chiefs, 10-6 (.477): Made playoffs
26. Bengals, 7-9 (.465)
27. Eagles, 13-3 (.461): Made playoffs
28. Chargers, 9-7 (.457)
29. Steelers, 13-3 (.453): Made playoffs
30. Ravens, 9-7 (.441)
T-31. Jaguars, 10-6 (.434): Made playoffs
T-31. Titans, 10-6 (.434): Made playoffs
 

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Toast88

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For the people saying you can't properly evaluate the Strength of Schedule until after the season----well, obviously. But you're missing the point.

If you're wanting to evaluate or analyze a team's schedule before the season AT ALL, you must use PREDICTIVE measures. Probably the best predictive measure for upcoming Strength of Schedule is teams' performances from last year. Of course teams get better or worse, but if you're aware of a better predictive measure, let's hear it.
 

xer0h0ur

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For the people saying you can't properly evaluate the Strength of Schedule until after the season----well, obviously. But you're missing the point.

If you're wanting to evaluate or analyze a team's schedule before the season AT ALL, you must use PREDICTIVE measures. Probably the best predictive measure for upcoming Strength of Schedule is teams' performances from last year. Of course teams get better or worse, but if you're aware of a better predictive measure, let's hear it.

Well duh. The difference is that the term used to describe it, strength of schedule, is highly misleading when you're using it as a projection. It would make far more sense if they called it projected strength of schedule versus strength of schedule. One for before the season and the other for what it actually turned out to be after the season.
 

gwharris2254

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There are dopey meatballs here that think we'll go 4-0 in that stretch. Smh.

There is one thing I am pretty sure about and that is that THE BEARs are gonna AMBUSH the Pack and start 1-0

I said the SAME fuckin thing about the Opening day for INDY and their new stadium and guess what ? They beat Indy at home in their new palace.

NO ONE, absolutely Nobody, expects the BEARs to win week ONE at Lambeau....... 1-0 NANCIEs
 

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