2018 Hug watch thread..

And just so I'm clear here, this is why you would put him in your playoff bullpen. VS LH batters his career triple slash against is .200/.243/.334(.253 wOBA) 10.05 k/9 1.66 bb/9 3.20/2.76/2.95 ERA/FIP/xFIP over 163.0 innings. Of the cubs this year who've thrown at least 10 innings vs LH batters, #1 is Morrow with .151/.224/.208(.201 wOBA). #2 is Edwards.234/.294.298(.256 wOBA). So, his career numbers are better than the cubs second most dominating reliever. For reverence your other LH options are Wilson .161/.288/.311(.271 wOBA), Monty .243/.319/.337(.293), Rosario .156/.283/.378(.293), and Duensing .194/.310/.383(.306).

In other words he's far and away the best option they have vs LH batters if he's back to normal post injury.

I’ve never seen a issue with him on the post season roster.

In the post seaeon each series the roster is readjustable off of the 40. So if team A Has a stronger LH presence then carting Smyly makes more sense. If the line up is RH dominate then Smyly’s impact is lessened

chibears55 said:

Duensing shouldn't even be on the team come September...

I already said who the 9 guys will be on the playoff roster for the pen.

Morrow Cishek Wilson Strop Edwards Montgomery Chavez Rosario Kintzler

Starters now...

Lester Hamels Hendricks Quintana


A guy who hasn't pitched in 2 years and struggled that year, and will maybe get about a handful of games in September is not going to a consideration over guys like Rosario, who been up and pitching well most to all year...

Heck if Darvish returns and pitches well, ill bet a nickle they would consider Darvish or one of the other starters in the pen before Smyley...

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usually when they reduce the rotation the position guy gets the nod for the playoffs and they go to 11 or 12 pitchers, not 13.

I dont think there is any way they keep a pitcher they only plan to use in blowouts over Bote.

anotheridiot said:

usually when they reduce the rotation the position guy gets the nod for the playoffs and they go to 11 or 12 pitchers, not 13.

I dont think there is any way they keep a pitcher they only plan to use in blowouts over Bote.

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They will drop a starter. In the Cubs case:

Montgomery=>pen in Sept.
Pen options:

LH: Montgomery, Wilson, Smyly, Duesing, Roserio
RH: Morrow, Kintzler, Cishek, Chavez, Strop, Edwards

I'm expecting 5 RH/3 LH in the pen myself. Now with 1 arm dropped off the rotation they have a choice of moving to the pen, bumping a pen arm or dropping and adding a bat. I think it really depends on the match up. I had to guess right now Yu would not be carried. If he has a strong Sept everything shifts around him. Then it could be Q or Hendricks depending on the match up and if it favors a lefty or a righty starter.

beckdawg said:

Yes. IIRC rules are just that you either have to be on the roster before sept or are someone coming back from an injury.

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Thanks, I appreciate the info. I have no doubt that when they signed Smyly they were hoping for him to come back late this year and be an impact arm out of the pen in a playoff stretch. Honestly it might have been more for that than next year. Next year I don’t know if they will know what to do with him other than use him like Montgomery this year.

Also if Darvish comes back and is solid the playoff roster is going to be tough to figure out. If he is solid and everyone else is steady the rest of the season I’d assume rotation would be Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Darvish. With a pen of Morrow, Edwards, Strop, Cishek, Kintzler, Quintana, Wilson, Montgomery, Smyly.

This leaves Rosario and Chavez on the outside possibly? They might have some tough decisions to make with the pitching staff which is a good thing.

anotheridiot said:

usually when they reduce the rotation the position guy gets the nod for the playoffs and they go to 11 or 12 pitchers, not 13.

I dont think there is any way they keep a pitcher they only plan to use in blowouts over Bote.

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Didn’t they keep an extra pitcher last year? I could be wrong but for some reason I was thinking cubs stuck with a short bench and long bullpen.

beckdawg said:

You're info is off here dude. His TJS was last year(roughly 28th june 2017). He hasn't been off for 2 years. He missed roughly a year of time and while he hasn't been throwing in games he has been throwing previously. They aren't "rushing" him to anything. This is the normal time table for a return. As for having him throw meaningful innings, I'm not really sure what your gripe here is. He's either good when he comes back or he's not. You have all of september to figure that out. If he's good where's the harm? You're not going to have him start games. He's throwing 15-20 pitches in a playoff setting where you have more rest than normal in season baseball.

And more to the point, Hickey literally said he expects Smyly to throw meaningful innings this year.

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He got hurt in March 2017, had surgery in July, he hasn't pitched since 2016..

I found these also, as to what they expect from him this year..

https://cubbiescrib.com/2018/08/01/...y-take-brian-duensings-role-down-the-stretch/


Smyly on the way

The Cubs signed Smyly to a two-year contract in the offseason. He underwent Tommy John Surgery in July 2017 following an injury that March. Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer pointed outhow the move was made largely with 2019 in mind as a result.

“Anything we get out of him next year will be sort of gravy,” Hoyer said. “He may be able to help us late in the season out of the bullpen. This is a move that’s focused on 2019. He’s a really good, high-quality starting pitcher, and we’re excited to get him on this deal and rehab him and hopefully get him back to where he was.”


https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-no-hurry-get-drew-smyly-back-mound

Drew Smyly signed with the team as a free agent last winter, just months after undergoing Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2017 season. But despite not having thrown a pitch in the big leagues in nearly two calendar years, there's no rush to get Smyly back on the mound.

When Smyly originally signed with the team, the thought was that he might be able to get back to the big leagues as soon as the beginning of August. That appears unlikely at this point, given the status of his rehab.
“His next step will be a sim game, it sounds like,” Theo Epstein said. “Trying to pick the right day as we figure out his timing and go off how he's feeling too.”
The natural progression after a sim game would be sending him out on a rehab start, but the Cubs aren't pushing it. They're going to let Smyly take his time to get back to the mound.
“I mean, it'll depend on how he's feeling and how it goes,” said Epstein. “We don't want to rush into a rehab assignment because then you start the clock, and there's no rush. We'll make sure he's really good and ready.”






Sure doesn't sound like their trying to push him to be ready to pitch in October....

Seriously...
Hey let use a guy who hasn't pitched in 2 yrs, coming off of TJ surgery and just a handful of innings in September in the postseason and sit guys that have been doing it for us all year....

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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2017/10/14/16475452/mlb-playoffs-2017-cubs-nlcs-roster

no, 11 including Lackey, article says Rondon replaced Wilson from the previous series.

chibears55 said:

He got hurt in March 2017, had surgery in July, he hasn't pitched since 2016..

I found these also, as to what they expect from him this year..

https://cubbiescrib.com/2018/08/01/...y-take-brian-duensings-role-down-the-stretch/


Smyly on the way

The Cubs signed Smyly to a two-year contract in the offseason. He underwent Tommy John Surgery in July 2017 following an injury that March. Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer pointed outhow the move was made largely with 2019 in mind as a result.

“Anything we get out of him next year will be sort of gravy,” Hoyer said. “He may be able to help us late in the season out of the bullpen. This is a move that’s focused on 2019. He’s a really good, high-quality starting pitcher, and we’re excited to get him on this deal and rehab him and hopefully get him back to where he was.”


https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-no-hurry-get-drew-smyly-back-mound

Drew Smyly signed with the team as a free agent last winter, just months after undergoing Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2017 season. But despite not having thrown a pitch in the big leagues in nearly two calendar years, there's no rush to get Smyly back on the mound.

When Smyly originally signed with the team, the thought was that he might be able to get back to the big leagues as soon as the beginning of August. That appears unlikely at this point, given the status of his rehab.
“His next step will be a sim game, it sounds like,” Theo Epstein said. “Trying to pick the right day as we figure out his timing and go off how he's feeling too.”
The natural progression after a sim game would be sending him out on a rehab start, but the Cubs aren't pushing it. They're going to let Smyly take his time to get back to the mound.
“I mean, it'll depend on how he's feeling and how it goes,” said Epstein. “We don't want to rush into a rehab assignment because then you start the clock, and there's no rush. We'll make sure he's really good and ready.”






Sure doesn't sound like their trying to push him to be ready to pitch in October....

Seriously...
Hey let use a guy who hasn't pitched in 2 yrs, coming off of TJ surgery and just a handful of innings in September in the postseason and sit guys that have been doing it for us all year....

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They don’t really have to push him. He’s got a little over a month to rehab in the minors at this point. Then he’s got close to another month to show what he’s able to do at the major league level at this point. If he looks good he has a chance to be a useful piece in the playoffs if we make it. It’s really not that complicated. He’s not being rushed and not being relied on, but does give you another nice option.

anotheridiot said:

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2017/10/14/16475452/mlb-playoffs-2017-cubs-nlcs-roster

no, 11 including Lackey, article says Rondon replaced Wilson from the previous series.

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Okay. I guess I really overshot it putting 13 arms on the playoff roster then. I do think they’ll go with 12 though right? I’m assuming your position players would be Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Contreras, Caratini, Lastella, Zobrist, Bote, and Happ. I can’t imagine another position player they’d keep over pitching unless I’m forgetting about someone or they make a waiver deal.

Chicagosports89 said:

Okay. I guess I really overshot it putting 13 arms on the playoff roster then. I do think they’ll go with 12 though right? I’m assuming your position players would be Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Contreras, Caratini, Lastella, Zobrist, Bote, and Happ. I can’t imagine another position player they’d keep over pitching unless I’m forgetting about someone or they make a waiver deal.

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13 pitchers 12 position players is the norm for NL teams in playoffs...

I did see that Hoyer said they will probably look for a guy who can run play defense etc. off the waiver wires like when they added Martin last year

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chibears55 said:

He got hurt in March 2017, had surgery in July, he hasn't pitched since 2016..

I found these also, as to what they expect from him this year..

https://cubbiescrib.com/2018/08/01/...y-take-brian-duensings-role-down-the-stretch/


Smyly on the way

The Cubs signed Smyly to a two-year contract in the offseason. He underwent Tommy John Surgery in July 2017 following an injury that March. Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer pointed outhow the move was made largely with 2019 in mind as a result.

“Anything we get out of him next year will be sort of gravy,” Hoyer said. “He may be able to help us late in the season out of the bullpen. This is a move that’s focused on 2019. He’s a really good, high-quality starting pitcher, and we’re excited to get him on this deal and rehab him and hopefully get him back to where he was.”


https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-no-hurry-get-drew-smyly-back-mound

Drew Smyly signed with the team as a free agent last winter, just months after undergoing Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2017 season. But despite not having thrown a pitch in the big leagues in nearly two calendar years, there's no rush to get Smyly back on the mound.

When Smyly originally signed with the team, the thought was that he might be able to get back to the big leagues as soon as the beginning of August. That appears unlikely at this point, given the status of his rehab.
“His next step will be a sim game, it sounds like,” Theo Epstein said. “Trying to pick the right day as we figure out his timing and go off how he's feeling too.”
The natural progression after a sim game would be sending him out on a rehab start, but the Cubs aren't pushing it. They're going to let Smyly take his time to get back to the mound.
“I mean, it'll depend on how he's feeling and how it goes,” said Epstein. “We don't want to rush into a rehab assignment because then you start the clock, and there's no rush. We'll make sure he's really good and ready.”






Sure doesn't sound like their trying to push him to be ready to pitch in October....

Seriously...
Hey let use a guy who hasn't pitched in 2 yrs, coming off of TJ surgery and just a handful of innings in September in the postseason and sit guys that have been doing it for us all year....

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They are not rushing him but the minors ends in a month. I get will not shelf him unless it is a injury issue

chibears55 said:

13 pitchers 12 position players is the norm for NL teams in playoffs...

I did see that Hoyer said they will probably look for a guy who can run play defense etc. off the waiver wires like when they added Martin last year

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12 pitchers and 13 position players is the norm for NL teams during the regular season. They are always keeping an extra pitcher on since they cant get consistency. Then it gets reduced since you are not using 5 starters anymore.

Monty will be 5 and be in the pen, Morrow, Cishek, Edwards, Kintzler, Strop, Rosario are probably it unless Rosario pulls a LaStella and gets released and nobody is injured. Wilson was bad and left of last year as well. That allows Theo to get his waiver runner/outfielder (if there is one left) and Bote.

CSF77 said:

They are not rushing him but the minors ends in a month. I get will not shelf him unless it is a injury issue

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I know their not rushing him...
It because they dont plan on having him pitch pass September

Im not saying he wont be with the cubs in September to face some batters, im saying there no plan for him to be on the playoff roster come October...




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chibears55 said:

I know their not rushing him...
It because they dont plan on having him pitch pass September

Im not saying he wont be with the cubs in September to face some batters, im saying there no plan for him to be on the playoff roster come October...



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You are speaking for them now?

I don't get why this Smyly shit sticks in your craw so much chibears55. He either pitches well during rehab or he doesn't. There's a pretty high degree of chance he'll pitch in the majors during september. His results will tell them all they need to know. There are plenty of guys who come of TJS just fine and don't need 2+ years to return to normal.

beckdawg said:

I don't get why this Smyly shit sticks in your craw so much chibears55. He either pitches well during rehab or he doesn't. There's a pretty high degree of chance he'll pitch in the majors during september. His results will tell them all they need to know. There are plenty of guys who come of TJS just fine and don't need 2+ years to return to normal.

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We can move on after this..
Im just basically responding back to you all...

I just dont get why you all automatically think their going to pass over others who been pitching all year with the team for a guy who hasn't thrown a pitch in a meaningful game sim game rehab game or anything in 2 years but you all seem to think he going to face a few major league hitters in September and be ready and good enough to get big outs in October ..

From what i read and all , it dont seem that the hope or plan Epstein and Hoyer has for him ..
Looks like their bigger goal for him is 2019 , not 2018 postseason ..

Plus in my own thinking..
what kind of message does that send to guys like Rosario or whoever left off the roster, that been busting their ass all year and pitching well out of the pen for a guy who just started pitching in September ?

Plus

Why would they add a guy to the postseason roster who will most likely be limited in his pitches

Just wouldn't make sense to add him to the roster, they have better choices over him...

Ok.. im done on this... Lol

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chibears55 said:

I just dont get why you all automatically think their going to pass over others who been pitching all year with the team for a guy who hasn't thrown a pitch in a meaningful game sim game rehab game or anything in 2 years but you all seem to think he going to face a few major league hitters in September and be ready and good enough to get big outs in October ..

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Simple. Because when healthy he's a better pitcher than the guys he would be replacing. I mean I already showed you his stats vs LH batters. If you want to argue he'll be rusty or wont be healthy fine but they literally have all of September to figure that out. If he's not effective upon returning or he just flat out doesn't return you have your answer.

From what i read and all , it dont seem that the hope or plan Epstein and Hoyer has for him

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What are you reading their minds here? You plan for the worst case scenario and hope for the best. In other words, you plan that he wont have any impact this year when signing him. But that doesn't mean you don't hope he recovers quick enough to help. If they literally thought he was useless until 2019 as you're suggesting, why sign him in the first place? You could literally wait until now when he's rehabbing see how things go and sign him either late this year or when FA starts up after the season.

what kind of message does that send to guys like Rosario or whoever left off the roster, that been busting their ass all year and pitching well out of the pen for a guy who just started pitching in September ?

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It sends the message you're trying to win games. If someone is better than you they take your job. That's the way sports works. And to illustrate how silly this argument is, look at what they did in the world series with Schwarber. He had even less reason to be playing that Smyly but they felt he would help them win games. That's not throwing shade at whoever was left off the world series roster.

And I really don't get why you're picking Rosario as the hill to die on here. He's been worth -0.4 fWAR. He's got a 5.34 k/9 and a 4.50 bb/9. His BABIP is .247 and his strand rate is 93.6%. A 75% strand rate is on the high side so a 93.6% rate is astronomically lucky which is why his FIP is 5.10. And the .247 BABIP is better than the BABIP Hendricks put up in 2016. None of these numbers are sustainable. Rosario has been useful even if it was lucky. But to sit here and say he's earned time on a playoff roster is being ignorant of how he's performed. I think I've proved my point with Heyward that I know how to read stats. Rosario isn't someone you want pitching in the post season. As an up and down guy during the season he's fine but counting on him in the post season is entirely another matter.

Now am I saying you want Smyly closing out games in the playoffs? Probably not. But in the playoffs you're talking about most of the relievers being 1 or 2 out guys save for you big arms like Morrow/Edwards and maybe Cishek. The fact that Smyly excels when healthy vs LH batters is far more valuable than having someone who's average against both splits. And if you have both him and Wilson in the pen that means you don't have to use Monty in a Loogy role. You can use him in multiple inning instances if needed.

Regardless, if he's pitching well I see 0 reason to keep him off the playoff roster because he fills a role.

beckdawg said:

Simple. Because when healthy he's a better pitcher than the guys he would be replacing. I mean I already showed you his stats vs LH batters. If you want to argue he'll be rusty or wont be healthy fine but they literally have all of September to figure that out. If he's not effective upon returning or he just flat out doesn't return you have your answer.

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His last season pitching in 2016, he had a 4.80 ERA in 30 games, LH hitters hit .250 with .724 OPS off him..
You wouldn't of wanted him on the playoff roster in 2016

I dont know how you can assume if healthy and maybe pitching in a handful of games in September that he gonna be better then other options for this year based on a few innings he'll get...

Of course he gonna be rusty and ineffective, that pretty much my whole point...
A handful of games in September, not going to help him build up his arm strength and make him ready to pitch in big playoff games without having limited pitches..

Cubs are going to be playing important meaningful games in September, their not going to treat it like ST for him and say ok we'll get you into this game and that game to help you slowly build your arm strength up...

Come on..lol





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He is in the same ball park as Hamles and Darvish. It doesn't matter what he did. It matters what he does and how that stacks against other of his ilk.

All I can say come Oct. only starter that is guaranteed shit is Lester and he has earned it. Just about every one else has excess depth looking them in the face rotation or pen. At those time the cream rises.

Basically do you want to pitch in Oct then be better than your piers.

Now as I said match up dictates also. Say they match up vs team A round 1 and they have 1-2 legit left handed threats. You really don't need 3 lefties then. So at that point you take the top 2 performers. Say Smyly in Sept puts up a 1.31 ERA and is basically uninhabitable. Well guess what he is on the roster and most likely ahead of Wilson and Montgomery.

I see it as Wilson has the short stick going in. No control next year so he has to beat the rest to be in. Smyly is performance based. Tie really depends on his arm. If they feel that that is enough then they will pull the plug. If he is the best option then that is what he is.