CubsFaninMN
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I'm looking to get a little discussion going in re the old saying "They're just playing over their heads". The modern, analytic term for it is a team's Pythagorean number, but it amounts to the same thing, I think. What teams are winning right at their talent level, which are running into a ton of bad luck, and which have made a pact with the devil and are having the coin come up heads toss after every freakin' toss?
There is, I realize, some difference, though. You can play over your head as an individual by having, at least until the league adjusts, your career year in one or more categories. You can also play over your head with the help of PEDs. That's one area. But you can also just get plain dumbshit lucky, have every one of your errors end up being inconsequential and every one of theirs letting you plate a winning run, that kind of thing.
Everyone likes to point out that the Brewers are playing to a projected five to ten wins above their Pythagorean. But what does that really mean? Does it mean they have had a lot of luck in the first half, and we can expect to see that sort of even out as the sample size gets larger? Or does it mean that, like with a 2017 Eric Thames, who at one point in May of that year was projecting to hit 70 to 80 dingers, and ended up with 31, is Milwaukee featuring a bunch of guys who are taking advantage of a new division, facing pitchers who haven't seen them as often, and are having good first half numbers but will see them drop down as the league, and especially the division, makes adjustments?
Or does it mean that the Pythagorean is just an invalid stat, and that, despite that number, the Brewers really do have a better team than others with a better Pythagorean? Like, um, the Cubs?
Let's discuss...
There is, I realize, some difference, though. You can play over your head as an individual by having, at least until the league adjusts, your career year in one or more categories. You can also play over your head with the help of PEDs. That's one area. But you can also just get plain dumbshit lucky, have every one of your errors end up being inconsequential and every one of theirs letting you plate a winning run, that kind of thing.
Everyone likes to point out that the Brewers are playing to a projected five to ten wins above their Pythagorean. But what does that really mean? Does it mean they have had a lot of luck in the first half, and we can expect to see that sort of even out as the sample size gets larger? Or does it mean that, like with a 2017 Eric Thames, who at one point in May of that year was projecting to hit 70 to 80 dingers, and ended up with 31, is Milwaukee featuring a bunch of guys who are taking advantage of a new division, facing pitchers who haven't seen them as often, and are having good first half numbers but will see them drop down as the league, and especially the division, makes adjustments?
Or does it mean that the Pythagorean is just an invalid stat, and that, despite that number, the Brewers really do have a better team than others with a better Pythagorean? Like, um, the Cubs?
Let's discuss...