beckdawg
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I know following prospects isn't for everyone. That's especially true when you're not dreaming of tomorrow. That being said, what Roederer is doing in Mesa is pretty fascinating. He's currently hitting .371/.488/.657. That's a 1.145 OPS. Those numbers aren't a "good year" numbers. Those are numbers you see out of top 10 prospects in all of baseball. Royce Lewis who mlb.com has at #11 for example hit .271/.390/.414 in rookie league last year as the former #1 overall pick.
I could go more in detail on this but suffice to say that's really uncommon. And while we're only talking about 43 PAs, most of his underlying numbers look reasonably stable to me. I mean obviously over say 600 PAs he's not going to hit .371. I can go into how i came about these numbers but I think you're looking at a .280-.310 type hitter with an 11-15% walk rate. For reference, a .280 hitter with an 11% walk rate typically is something like .280/.370. And more importantly he's only striking out 14% of the time. On top of that this is a kid who stole 40 bases in 79 career HS games and thus far has 4 in in 9 games in Mesa. That's roughly a 60 SB pace which even if you cut that in half is top 5 in SB among qualified players in 2017. That in turn is a very good sign for his OF range. Don't know much on his throwing strength but average arms in CF tend not to be a huge deal.
Knowing nothing more than that I'd argue that prospect is already better than prospect Almora and I'm a big Almora fan. Almora doesn't have that kind of speed nor the walk rate. So, if Roederer's defense is even close his avg/obp + speed is a better version of Almora. Prior to the draft the scouting on Roederer was potential 20/20 type. If that's what he is with the aforementioned .280/.370 avg/obp you're essentially talking about him being Andrew Benintendi. Having said that, he has a .286 ISO and 2 doubles, a triple and 2 HRs in 9 games. That's a really strong sign. Just as a reference point here, Mike Trout didn't have an ISO over .200 until his third season at AA. So, even if Roederer's power falls off 30% from where it currently is you're talking about a really intriguing player.
I didn't really make this topic because I thought he was Almora. And while the more likely case IMO is he's something close to Benintendi, the reason I made this topic is I think there's a chance he's better than that. Whether people realize it or not what you become as a player tends to come down to 3 stats. Those are you're walk rate, your k rate and your power. The first 2 control the outcomes where a ball isn't in play and the third controls HRs and a higher BABIP is typically indicative of power(or speed). Since BABIP isn't really skill based the only influence a player tends to have on that is how hard he hits the ball. Roederer thus far has strong showings in all 3 of those. And even if his power falls off, his current 14% k rate is so good that you'll often see guys who have that sort of contact trade contact for power. For example, Mike Trout essentially was a 15% k rate guy until he got to AA where he traded 5% k rate to get his ISO over .200. Conversely you also see some guys like Russell go the opposite way when they have K rate problems. They trade power for contact.
A valid question if you think I'm exaggerating here would be "Why if he's so great did he last until the 77th pick?" Well to start with he's more like a top 60 pick given he was well over the slot value for his pick. Might be top 50 I'm not sure. And I'd also point out that Trout didn't get picked until the 25th pick. In Trout's case it was mostly because he played in the north east as a HS and it's harder to scout cold weather players. Interestingly, Roederer separated his non-throwing shoulder late in the season. I don't have any kind of confirmation for this but it's plausible that the cubs who have a large scouting department were one of the few teams that saw him early enough when he was healthy to put him on their board. Other teams may have identified him late and by the time they got around to scouting him he was hurt. And given he had a strong UCLA commitment, you aren't going to draft a guy like that unless you're sure he's legit given the money he commanded from the cubs.
I want to be clear here. I've mentioned Trout's name a couple of times and I don't want to infer that Roederer is going to be the next Trout. Trout is a generational talent which by definition only happens once in a generation. The reason I'm mentioning Trout is because he's basically what you expect the best case scenario to be for a HS player and especially for a CF. If you're good enough to make the majors at 19 then your benchmark numbers for 18/19 are going to be useful for comparing how good someone is playing relatively age/league. A more reasonable comparison might be Addison Russell. Roederer is currently at 207 wRC+ where as Russell at the same age posted a 206 wRC+ albeit more "lucky" influenced by BABIP. And I think we sort of forget what Russell the prospect was given he sort of disappointed by being so young and not quite hitting comparable to older teammates.
Regardless, Roederer is someone to watch and if his power is real he has all the tools you could want. Don't be surprised if he skips A-. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he's in South Bend soon with an eye towards starting him in A+ next year. He's playing that much above rookie league IMO. That would also give South bend a bat it desperately needs. Their OF consists of Chris Carrier(hitting .171/.326/.371), Zach Davis(.293/.382/.347 good but he's 24) and Roberto Caro(.375/.460/.555 also 24).
I could go more in detail on this but suffice to say that's really uncommon. And while we're only talking about 43 PAs, most of his underlying numbers look reasonably stable to me. I mean obviously over say 600 PAs he's not going to hit .371. I can go into how i came about these numbers but I think you're looking at a .280-.310 type hitter with an 11-15% walk rate. For reference, a .280 hitter with an 11% walk rate typically is something like .280/.370. And more importantly he's only striking out 14% of the time. On top of that this is a kid who stole 40 bases in 79 career HS games and thus far has 4 in in 9 games in Mesa. That's roughly a 60 SB pace which even if you cut that in half is top 5 in SB among qualified players in 2017. That in turn is a very good sign for his OF range. Don't know much on his throwing strength but average arms in CF tend not to be a huge deal.
Knowing nothing more than that I'd argue that prospect is already better than prospect Almora and I'm a big Almora fan. Almora doesn't have that kind of speed nor the walk rate. So, if Roederer's defense is even close his avg/obp + speed is a better version of Almora. Prior to the draft the scouting on Roederer was potential 20/20 type. If that's what he is with the aforementioned .280/.370 avg/obp you're essentially talking about him being Andrew Benintendi. Having said that, he has a .286 ISO and 2 doubles, a triple and 2 HRs in 9 games. That's a really strong sign. Just as a reference point here, Mike Trout didn't have an ISO over .200 until his third season at AA. So, even if Roederer's power falls off 30% from where it currently is you're talking about a really intriguing player.
I didn't really make this topic because I thought he was Almora. And while the more likely case IMO is he's something close to Benintendi, the reason I made this topic is I think there's a chance he's better than that. Whether people realize it or not what you become as a player tends to come down to 3 stats. Those are you're walk rate, your k rate and your power. The first 2 control the outcomes where a ball isn't in play and the third controls HRs and a higher BABIP is typically indicative of power(or speed). Since BABIP isn't really skill based the only influence a player tends to have on that is how hard he hits the ball. Roederer thus far has strong showings in all 3 of those. And even if his power falls off, his current 14% k rate is so good that you'll often see guys who have that sort of contact trade contact for power. For example, Mike Trout essentially was a 15% k rate guy until he got to AA where he traded 5% k rate to get his ISO over .200. Conversely you also see some guys like Russell go the opposite way when they have K rate problems. They trade power for contact.
A valid question if you think I'm exaggerating here would be "Why if he's so great did he last until the 77th pick?" Well to start with he's more like a top 60 pick given he was well over the slot value for his pick. Might be top 50 I'm not sure. And I'd also point out that Trout didn't get picked until the 25th pick. In Trout's case it was mostly because he played in the north east as a HS and it's harder to scout cold weather players. Interestingly, Roederer separated his non-throwing shoulder late in the season. I don't have any kind of confirmation for this but it's plausible that the cubs who have a large scouting department were one of the few teams that saw him early enough when he was healthy to put him on their board. Other teams may have identified him late and by the time they got around to scouting him he was hurt. And given he had a strong UCLA commitment, you aren't going to draft a guy like that unless you're sure he's legit given the money he commanded from the cubs.
I want to be clear here. I've mentioned Trout's name a couple of times and I don't want to infer that Roederer is going to be the next Trout. Trout is a generational talent which by definition only happens once in a generation. The reason I'm mentioning Trout is because he's basically what you expect the best case scenario to be for a HS player and especially for a CF. If you're good enough to make the majors at 19 then your benchmark numbers for 18/19 are going to be useful for comparing how good someone is playing relatively age/league. A more reasonable comparison might be Addison Russell. Roederer is currently at 207 wRC+ where as Russell at the same age posted a 206 wRC+ albeit more "lucky" influenced by BABIP. And I think we sort of forget what Russell the prospect was given he sort of disappointed by being so young and not quite hitting comparable to older teammates.
Regardless, Roederer is someone to watch and if his power is real he has all the tools you could want. Don't be surprised if he skips A-. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he's in South Bend soon with an eye towards starting him in A+ next year. He's playing that much above rookie league IMO. That would also give South bend a bat it desperately needs. Their OF consists of Chris Carrier(hitting .171/.326/.371), Zach Davis(.293/.382/.347 good but he's 24) and Roberto Caro(.375/.460/.555 also 24).