It's not just his hard contact that gives him high babip. It's also his speed. that being said, a .350 BABIP is pretty absurd to keep. All i'm saying is if it falls to say .320 thats really going to effect his offensive numbers. As for the power, obviously he's always had that as well but again all i'm saying is I'm not sure the pace he's currently on is how good he really is.
Stats also don't say he's laying off pitches outside the zone. He's swinging and missing more at pitches outside the zone than last year. Last year his o-swing% was 45.2% on pitches outside the zone. This year it's 47.2%. Last year his o-contact% was 50.3% this year it is 52.9%. Obviously there's a little variance there but doesn't look to me like that's where he's improved. Where he's looked to improved to me is his contact on in zone balls. That's gone from 77.8% to 83.1%. If you look at his heat map he's basically destroying anything in the zone except the away top corner and right in on his hands.
You know, I get what you're saying about Baez' chase rate for the year. But -- and I agree, it's a subjective impression -- it just seems to me that he's chasing on strikes one and two. And fouling off about half of those, even when they are way low and away, his worst chase area. He's getting, it seems like, fewer third strikes chasing, and a better pitches-per-at-bat rate than earlier this year, fouling off balls outside the zone that he can't stop himself from swinging at instead of always punching out on them.
Is there a good way to check his chase rate just for the past, say, 20 or 30 games, while he's been having the best results? And seeing how many of his K's are coming on swinging third strikes? Again, it's an impression, but it just seems like he's improving in those areas.
So, while playing within his free-swinging game, Baez does seem to be finding ways to not make outs when it's really important to not make an out. Yes, part of that is luck. Part is skill, and part is, as Maddon always accused Contreras of doing, playing like your hair is on fire.
Baez has always played like his hair is on fire. God help the Cubs if he ever stops playing that way. That's the main reason Maddon keeps saying he doesn't want to try and "cure" Baez' free-swinging habits. He just wants the guy to focus them better, sure he'll get good results if he does that. And it really looks like Joe has been right about that all along. Javy had to find his own way to stop making outs and instead make big plays at bat when the team really needs it. And his own way is the
only way that will work, for him.
