Javy Baez and WAR

Trying to learn, but how is WAR actually created?

Looking at the stats on ESPN, it has Lorenzo Cain above Javy. From looking at the total bases, it appears Javy is above Cain.


Sortable Batting
RK PLAYER TEAM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS WAR
1 Lorenzo Cain MIL 422 66 130 21 1 9 32 24 7 59 76 .308 .401 .427 .827 5.7
2 Javier Baez CHC 475 79 141 34 8 28 97 21 6 20 118 .297 .329 .579 .908 5.4

Sortable Batting
RK PLAYER TEAM GP AVG TPA PIT P/PA TB XBH HBP IBB GDP SH SF
7 Lorenzo Cain MIL 111 .308 489 1950 3.99 180 31 7 0 6 0 1
11 Javier Baez CHC 126 .297 505 1664 3.30 275 70 5 7 11 1 4

RK PLAYER TEAM AVG RC RC27 ISOP SECA GB FB G/F AB/HR BB/PA
7 Lorenzo Cain MIL .308 77.1 6.80 .118 .299 195 152 1.28 46.9 .121 0.78
11 Javier Baez CHC .297 87.2 6.61 .282 .356 171 188 0.91 17.0 .040 0.17



I understand Javy's walk ratio is god awful, but there has to be more than that.

Thanks.

WAR is calculated differently depending on which site you use. Fangraphs, Baseball Reference and others all have their own. I prefer Fangraphs (fWAR) because the site is the easiest to use, and also because I feel Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR) overvalues defense.

Cain has the league's 6th best OBP and that value is huge. Getting on base is a huge skill.

Cain also grades out as a far better (and more impactful) defender than Javy.

Fangraphs is saying Baez is more valuable offensively (25 to 20 offensive runs above average on Fangraphs) but Cain far more valuable defensively (12 to 3 defensive runs above average).

wRC+ has it
Goldschmidt 153
Carpenter: 150
Suarez: 146
Freeman: 146
Nimmo: 146
Peralta: 143
Aguilar: 141
Arenado: 141
Yelich: 141
Baez: 133

Not really high on the pecking order. 33% better than a avg player.

It has been Carpenter's award and with the Cards making a push it really is placing him above the rest. Considering that team has no reason except for him to be where they are at. He kinda deserves it based off of that alone. Baez has been a major player in the success but the Cubs are more talented as a team.

OK, thanks all.

CSF77 said:

wRC+ has it
Goldschmidt 153
Carpenter: 150
Suarez: 146
Freeman: 146
Nimmo: 146
Peralta: 143
Aguilar: 141
Arenado: 141
Yelich: 141
Baez: 133

Not really high on the pecking order. 33% better than a avg player.

It has been Carpenter's award and with the Cards making a push it really is placing him above the rest. Considering that team has no reason except for him to be where they are at. He kinda deserves it based off of that alone. Baez has been a major player in the success but the Cubs are more talented as a team.

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You aren’t wrong but the thinking clearly is.

Carpenter has hrs and doubles and walks, all good. But he is a negative defensively but it is hidden when he plays first because his inability to scoop throws every other first baseman handles simply leads to errors on his infielders. He aucks at 2nd and 3rd.

He is god awful on the bases.

Javy gets no credit for avoiding outs on the bases but carpenter gets way too much for avoiding outs by walking.

I am shocked that anyone can watch these two players this year and think carpenter helps a team more.

I will say that you are right that stats seem to inexplicably value carpenter like they do. But unless the Cards get hot again he isn’t winning it.

TL1961 said:

You aren’t wrong but the thinking clearly is.

Carpenter has hrs and doubles and walks, all good. But he is a negative defensively but it is hidden when he plays first because his inability to scoop throws every other first baseman handles simply leads to errors on his infielders. He aucks at 2nd and 3rd.

He is god awful on the bases.

Javy gets no credit for avoiding outs on the bases but carpenter gets way too much for avoiding outs by walking.

I am shocked that anyone can watch these two players this year and think carpenter helps a team more.

I will say that you are right that stats seem to inexplicably value carpenter like they do. But unless the Cards get hot again he isn’t winning it.

Click to expand...

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.a...type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0

When the front page is all at or above 6% BB and Baez sits alone at 3.8% it is a sore thumb. He has 0% shot at it.

It would be Manny's if he was a Dodger all year. .302/.376/.547 5.8 WAR.

OBA is God with these voters right now. His OBA is .326. You don't start to see that until #30.

So there is a bunch of hype going his direction and the best hitters are in the AL right now. But he doesn't deserve it.

TL1961 said:

You aren’t wrong but the thinking clearly is.

Carpenter has hrs and doubles and walks, all good. But he is a negative defensively but it is hidden when he plays first because his inability to scoop throws every other first baseman handles simply leads to errors on his infielders. He aucks at 2nd and 3rd.

He is god awful on the bases.

Javy gets no credit for avoiding outs on the bases but carpenter gets way too much for avoiding outs by walking.

I am shocked that anyone can watch these two players this year and think carpenter helps a team more.

I will say that you are right that stats seem to inexplicably value carpenter like they do. But unless the Cards get hot again he isn’t winning it.

Click to expand...

I get what you're saying, but at the same time there are only 27 outs in a baseball game. Not making an out when you come to bat is tremendously valuable, probably the most valuable thing in the game, a lot more than occassionally avoiding an out with a clever slide.

fatbeard said:

I get what you're saying, but at the same time there are only 27 outs in a baseball game. Not making an out when you come to bat is tremendously valuable, probably the most valuable thing in the game, a lot more than occassionally avoiding an out with a clever slide.

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Lindor is a good Comp. Numbers are pretty close but his OBA is at a respectful number for a MVP candidate. He sits at 7 WAR. You can see that Javy still has vast room for improvement but it comes from being less agressive. Shaving off 5% SO and plugging it towards BB% makes him the clear MVP choice.

If they handed to him it would make the award a popularity contest award.

And that is fine. Most awards are sketchy anyways.

CSF77 said:

Lindor is a good Comp. Numbers are pretty close but his OBA is at a respectful number for a MVP candidate. He sits at 7 WAR. You can see that Javy still has vast room for improvement but it comes from being less agressive. Shaving off 5% SO and plugging it towards BB% makes him the clear MVP choice.

If they handed to him it would make the award a popularity contest award.

And that is fine. Most awards are sketchy anyways.

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I don't know why you keep insisting he has no shot at it due to his OBP. He's right up there in WAR even with his OBP what it is. He's a totally worthy candidate, and him being picked wouldn't be a popularity contest at all.

fatbeard said:

I don't know why you keep insisting he has no shot at it due to his OBP. He's right up there in WAR even with his OBP what it is. He's a totally worthy candidate, and him being picked wouldn't be a popularity contest at all.

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Because OPS is the be-all and end-all of almost every baseball pundit, and OPS plus defense is all that goes into WAR. Fuck, some think WAR should go away because they think defense should not be factored into a player's ratings. Baserunning is completely ignored; a guy could steal 200 bases, be the talk of baseball, and the pundits would go with the guy who has a .238 average but a great OBP and slug.

It no longer has anything to do with honoring the player who was most valuable to his team. It's people trying to pick and choose the pieces of a complete game that they like the best, putting them together into a single stat, and then using that stat to dismiss very worthy players who were more important to their team than any other player was to his team. "Well, OK, Bubbinsky hit .500 for the year, but took three walks. Not a complete player, into the shit-can."

It's just because the pundits are too stupid to try and keep more than one idea in their heads at any one time, so they seek a one-number rating upon which they can hang every single award and honor.

Fuck 'em. Go ahead and give the MVP award to a guy whose team doesn't even make the play-offs and can't fill its stadium unless the Cubs are visiting. We all know that the real MVP is the guy that other teams' fans want to see when the guy's team comes to visit. People come out to see Baez even when he's playing against their team. That's the guy who deserves honors, not the guy who excels at a very imperfect stat...

Just the fact that these writers only see these players when they play the team they are covering should be enough to either get the right people voting or just trash the fucking thing completely. Call it yet another Bill James casualty of MLB....

I wouldn't write off his MVP chances just yet. This is really the first player in the analytics era that has this high of a WAR this far into the season, who didn't have a high OBP. So he is a one of a kind and I don't think the voters will ignore him.