Anyone Still think Russell and Schwarber will be On the Cubs in 2019

beckdawg said:

I don't really agree with this. You don't make moves based on prospects who aren't in the majors on a contending team.I mean you're obviously saying that's the only reason you would trade Russell here but I really don't think it's a consideration.

Either way, I think people are going nuts because Russell hasn't broken out to their linking yet. But Baez is a perfect example of why you wouldn't deal russell yet. There's also the fact that you really only need get through 2019 because Zobrist is gone then and I think La Stella may be as well.

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You absolutely cannot trade Russell unless you think someone in the organization is capable of being MLB ready in the near future. It's kind of why trading Torres was expensive but you had replacements on the roster (Baez, Russell) that were young, capable MIF. At a minimum, you'd have to believe someone (and the only good guess for the near term is Hoerner) could be a good MIF on the MLB in the near term (no later than 2020). My point about not trading Russell is four fold

1. I don't believe Hoerner is projectable enough that I would say "yeah, he's a fine bench player who could start if Javy is hurt/struggles"
2. I think Javy is a guy who is not consistent year to year at the plate so while it's great he's 5-6 wins this year, he could be 2-3 next year and then you do want to see what Russell can give you
3. I still believe Russell has a higher ceiling/level of play than his overall numbers would suggest
4. The team could be losing one regular this winter (Murphy) and another regular (Zobrist). Come that point, you certainly will want Russell in both seasons and potentially beyond.

CSF77 said:

Baez hovered high 90’s wRC+ for a few years. Russell low 90’s. They were close but Baez always had explosive power coming up and had to tone it down until this year. Russell is a 20 HR bat at best. I don’t see him having a consistent power game.

Baez took the next step but going in we all knew that he had 30 HR power and this is more so him establishing himself because the talent was there.

Russell no. That would be over estimated and great if he becomes this superstar player. I just don’t see that level of talent.

Now what is he worth: depends on the current market value as always. If SS is a hot ticket item then his value goes up. If it is a cold market then it goes down.

Manny on the market makes Russell a cheap alternate. That is it. That is desirable but only if a team has a pressing need.

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Or, stay with me, the Cubs could keep BOTH guys, have an insane defensive pairing at SS and 2B and if Russell shows better ability to stay healthy (because really he was fine until he's been hurt in 2017 and 2018) and not really trade guys who don't need to be traded.

I don't get the desire to pair guys (Russell/Baez, Happ/Almora, Schwarber/Happ/Almora, etc) and make it a "we have to keep one and trade one". Why the fuck do you have to trade one? They provide depth and flexibility, two things Joe finds incredibly important to the grind of the season. Joe Maddon is on his way to his third consecutive division title and the year he didn't win the division as manager, they won 97 games. He does it by constantly changing the lineup and not having anyone except his 1B and his C play multiple positions. i don't know if they win because they're talented or they're talented because Joe keeps them motivated but I have no desire to trade guys off the roster and remove that style from the team.

If you were making an argument of which guy to trade, the more logical answer is you trade Baez and hope Russell can be an equal impact player (maybe not offensively but maybe in the aggregate) to Baez while Baez would have massively more trade value. But even that is probably stupid.

Omeletpants said:

Agreed. He looks clumsey out there. Not natural

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It's the weight he has put on.

anotheridiot said:

Heyward is a great right fielder, he is really not as good in center. I think Theo figured that out when he brought Fowler back. He is not bad by any means, but his value is in right. KB would prefer to play center if in fact they do bring back either Russell or Murphy and want to keep Bote in the mix.

The thing you usually hear is a players position. Javy plays 3B 2B or SS like he is a SS. Any move with Russell is solidifying Javy at SS

I think Murphy might end up being a series MVP in the postseason, if he is, how do you not keep him around?

When these big dollars start rearing their ugly head, is Russell really someone you want to pay double digit millions to?

There are a few scenarios I see happening.

Still hopeful Heyward opts out and goes. Javy accepts a rizzo type extension buying up arby years.

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GM's who think like that are not GM's for long.

DanTown said:

Or, stay with me, the Cubs could keep BOTH guys, have an insane defensive pairing at SS and 2B and if Russell shows better ability to stay healthy (because really he was fine until he's been hurt in 2017 and 2018) and not really trade guys who don't need to be traded.

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Definitely agree with this. The cubs if they are going to struggle are going to do so from a pitching stand point. They have enough bat but they don't necessarily have a true ace unless it's Darvish which has some questions right now. More defense makes the guys they have better.

I do get the point people are trying to make about Murphy providing a steadying force to a line up that can sometimes struggle to have great at bats. But I mean I'll go back to what I already said, if you gotta have him back for whatever reason I'd move Happ. He doesn't provide anything they don't already have an abundance of. He's basically Schwarber with slightly less power but slightly better defense and they don't absolutely have to have his CF defense. Baez is literally the only other guy on the roster who can play SS long term and Russell clearly is a better defender than even him. By keeping russell rather than Happ you secure your infield defense while also protecting against an injury you have no replacements for below probably A+ given the season Ademan had.

I like Murphy a lot. First guy since Fowler who gets how to be a lead off man....but if it comes down to him or Russell, you keep Russell. Murphy is 34 with a high salary...you can't continue to age this team. They already did enough of that acquiring pitching. If you're drafting right, you replace vets with kids not vice versa.

DanTown said:

Or, stay with me, the Cubs could keep BOTH guys, have an insane defensive pairing at SS and 2B and if Russell shows better ability to stay healthy (because really he was fine until he's been hurt in 2017 and 2018) and not really trade guys who don't need to be traded.

I don't get the desire to pair guys (Russell/Baez, Happ/Almora, Schwarber/Happ/Almora, etc) and make it a "we have to keep one and trade one". Why the fuck do you have to trade one? They provide depth and flexibility, two things Joe finds incredibly important to the grind of the season. Joe Maddon is on his way to his third consecutive division title and the year he didn't win the division as manager, they won 97 games. He does it by constantly changing the lineup and not having anyone except his 1B and his C play multiple positions. i don't know if they win because they're talented or they're talented because Joe keeps them motivated but I have no desire to trade guys off the roster and remove that style from the team.

If you were making an argument of which guy to trade, the more logical answer is you trade Baez and hope Russell can be an equal impact player (maybe not offensively but maybe in the aggregate) to Baez while Baez would have massively more trade value. But even that is probably stupid.

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I'm not against it.

My logic is this:

SP:

Lester Control to 2021
Darvish: Control til 2023
Hamels: Control til 2019
Quintana: Control til 2020
Hendricks: Control 2021

That is your starting 5. Losing Hamels then Q then Hendricks and Lester leaving 2 years on Darvish. They need more depth at A level that can filter up. Sure they have back of the rotation types but nothing that looks potentially upper tier.

I'm pretty much all about attacking from that stand point. Via draft and via trades. They have depth right now and they should be looking to be proactive vs reactive starting this year.

That doesn't mean signing another Chatwood.

And Zobrist will be 38 next year and today is hitting over .300. What is your point on Murphy? In baseball you worry about who can help you NOW!!!

garapp said:

And Zobrist will be 38 next year and today is hitting over .300. What is your point on Murphy? In baseball you worry about who can help you NOW!!!

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No. You don't make long term commitments to guys who are aging and don't play D. (See today's loss)

His bat is terrific, and he is a perfect late season addition for that reason, as he is proving. But aging poor defenders are not where you commit your future funds.

You will NEVER regret keeping a solid defensive SS. Especially a young one with a low salary and a high ceiling.

I think Schwarber will be on the team but with the addition to Murphy I think possibly Russell will be traded and maybe Happ too.

garapp said:

And Zobrist will be 38 next year and today is hitting over .300. What is your point on Murphy? In baseball you worry about who can help you NOW!!!

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Is this a serious post? Really? Murphy's contract ends after this year and I'm sure he'll be looking for one more big payday. You willing to give a 34 yr old with a bad glove huge dollars? Signing him ages this team and is not a financially sound move. Zobrist is signed through next season and for a bargain rate of $12 mill which afterwards, he will probably retire. There is zero comparison between the two....one is strictly a rental and the other is not.

Diehardfan said:

I like Murphy a lot. First guy since Fowler who gets how to be a lead off man....but if it comes down to him or Russell, you keep Russell. Murphy is 34 with a high salary...you can't continue to age this team. They already did enough of that acquiring pitching. If you're drafting right, you replace vets with kids not vice versa.

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Yeah but the kids have to produce.

garapp said:

And Zobrist will be 38 next year and today is hitting over .300. What is your point on Murphy? In baseball you worry about who can help you NOW!!!

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That is literally the exact opposite of how good organizations build. That is how the Gary Gaettis of the world get signed to play for the 1999 Cubs.

fatbeard said:

That is literally the exact opposite of how good organizations build. That is how the Gary Gaettis of the world get signed to play for the 1999 Cubs.

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I don't think a lot of these guys grasp the reasons why these players become available at the tail end of the season....

Diehardfan said:

Is this a serious post? Really? Murphy's contract ends after this year and I'm sure he'll be looking for one more big payday. You willing to give a 34 yr old with a bad glove huge dollars? Signing him ages this team and is not a financially sound move. Zobrist is signed through next season and for a bargain rate of $12 mill which afterwards, he will probably retire. There is zero comparison between the two....one is strictly a rental and the other is not.

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Many fans don't get it.

Theo gets it.

TL1961 said:

Many fans don't get it.

Theo gets it.

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Thankfully

TL1961 said:

You will NEVER regret keeping a solid defensive SS. Especially a young one with a low salary and a high ceiling.

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Again not really about that. More to do with reloading their pitching. The fact there is arguement means he has trade value.

On Happ I’m good with him being traded also.

I would place in the system Thompson a sure thing as a back end starter. He has competed at every level and adjusts quickly to the new challenge. Rucker is a pretty close 2nd in a guy that can step onto the big stage. Neither are TOR.

So system wise this is a growing concern.

Next year they are good as long as they pull Hamels opt. They have Smyly also so they really don’t need a close arm. But with the depth that they have they could sell Q then use Smyly as a #5. Then Q becomes a trade chip to reload on pitching.

So I see next year as they have options available. Bote slides into Baez’s role of MI. If they trade Russell and opt to start Zo at 2B and use Bote to free up Zo or Bryant it is not a bad choice.

Then you have Q and Russell as chips to get back prospect pitching depth.

If they can get 1 arm ready by 2020 they are in good shape. Thinking it over if Smyly works out they could extend giving 2 longer term arms. That point Hendrick’s becomes a potential 3rd long term. But they need to replace Hamels and Lester. Thompson and Rucker are a flat downgrade. So you really want at least one higher end prospect coming back and let the other one go into spring competition.

Over all they are going to have some issues happening soon and being co-dependent via F/A is not the wisest of choices. This year returned poor results. Having a weak farm caused it.

Diehardfan said:

Is this a serious post? Really? Murphy's contract ends after this year and I'm sure he'll be looking for one more big payday. You willing to give a 34 yr old with a bad glove huge dollars? Signing him ages this team and is not a financially sound move. Zobrist is signed through next season and for a bargain rate of $12 mill which afterwards, he will probably retire. There is zero comparison between the two....one is strictly a rental and the other is not.

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Depends on what Murphys agent and their demands. I say 3years or less. If not let him go. We definetly could use his bat though.

Ari Bear said:

Depends on what Murphys agent and their demands. I say 3years or less. If not let him go. We definetly could use his bat though.

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You lose a lead off if he leaves.

Center Fielders

Gregor Blanco (35)
Rajai Davis (38)
Craig Gentry (35)
Carlos Gomez (33)
Jon Jay (33)
Adam Jones (33)
Leonys Martin (31)
Cameron Maybin (32)
Andrew McCutchen (32)
A.J. Pollock (31)
Denard Span (35) – $12MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

Almora is better than all of them.

Second Basemen

Asdrubal Cabrera (33)
Daniel Descalso (32)
Brian Dozier (32)
Logan Forsythe (32)
Marwin Gonzalez (30)
Josh Harrison (31) — $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Ian Kinsler (37)
DJ LeMahieu (30)
Jed Lowrie (35)
Daniel Murphy (34)
Eduardo Nuñez (32) — $4MM player option with a $2MM buyout
Cliff Pennington (35)
Jose Reyes (36)
Sean Rodriguez (34)
Eric Sogard (33)
Neil Walker (33)

common theme is 30 plus here. But Murphy is the best bat. best buy would be Marwin Gonzalez. He is a SH but I don't think that he is a upgrade to Russell/Baez.

Market looks pretty bad here that it might inflate Russell or Happ. You really lack established youth.

But best in market:

C: Yasmani Grandal (30)
1B: Matt Adams (30)
2B: Daniel Murphy 34
SS: Manny Machado (26)
3B: Josh Donaldson (33)
LF: Michael Brantley (32) (kinda like him as a lead off if they trade Schwarber)
CF: Leonys Martin (31)
RF: Bryce Harper (26)

SP:
Madison Bumgarner (29) — $12MM club option (not hitting market)
Clayton Kershaw (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $65MM
Dallas Keuchel (31)

So there are going to be plenty of talent out there in pitching this year. Then Harper and Manny being by far the best hitting talent out there. Q IMO has deflated value. J.A. Happ is available and is 2nd tier.

Looking it over nice chips are Happ and Schwarber. If they go after Brantley to lead off in LF and keep Almora in CF that way both can swap lead off in 19. I'm kinda ok with that. SP is deflated so Q looks like a poor chip right now. SS Manny, Eduardo Escobar with 121 wRC+ are better than Russell. Jody Mercer IMO same tier as Russell. 90 wRC+. 2B is deflated.
murphy could end up catching on with a NL team because of this. 1B shit but you can plug a bat like Beltre there and get away with it.