Anyone Still think Russell and Schwarber will be On the Cubs in 2019

garapp

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Murphy's 33, probably has at least 3 or 4 years left, and Zo, Happ and La Stella all can play infield.

I would be surprised if Harper isn't signed by the Cubs. He wants to play on the North Side so bad he named his dog "Wrigley".

Schwarber? Love the homers, hate the strikeouts, groundouts, etc and defensive lapses in between.

Hayward and Almora will be with the Cubs, and Bryant and Zo can play of also.
 

CSF77

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Schwarber cap is Dunn.

Russell would be smart with Hoerner in A+ to AA next year. Baez and Bote have proven their worth and the Cubs have moved on.

Murphy personally I would do it. You pay for production and that is what he does. Add to it they still can push Zobrist out to 2B when needed. Both fit the lead off role fine.

Value wise Russell is around 2 WAR value and his payroll commitment most likely out weighs his player value with Boras as his Agent. It makes more sense to sell now vs get backwards
 

beckdawg

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Value wise Russell is around 2 WAR value and his payroll commitment most likely out weighs his player value with Boras as his Agent. It makes more sense to sell now vs get backwards

You're drastically underselling Russell. His numbers only tanked because he was playing with not one but 3 injuries.
 

CSF77

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You're drastically underselling Russell. His numbers only tanked because he was playing with not one but 3 injuries.

Not really. I think that you over valued his puffed up 2016 RBI out put. Everything regressed after that.

But that is fine. If you feel this way then some GM will also and will press for a deal. And Theo would be smart to take it.

Cubs are better now vs waiting. Control = return.

If he was going to be a superstar then it would have happened. What happened is he sat behind a .400 OBA diet and soaked 95 RBI’s while putting up pedestrian numbers. Then he became a constant injury case. You would figure that he was in his 30’s vs under 25.

But keep on over valuing him.
 

CSF77

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Case in point:

Bryant and Russell both activated off injury.

Neither 100%

Bryant batting 5th

Russell not starting.


Let’s be real for a second here. Murphy and Baez hold more value than Russell. Late inning sure but as far as winning games Joe did not feel that Russell gave his best line up.

That was not the same case with Bryant who is playing over Bote. Bote has been for the most part very solid all around and Joe felt a injured KB was a upgrade.

That is reality. I really don’t want to go around and around on this topic. Russell holds value in Late inning D right now. Sure that will pay off in a series. Murphy as DH in the series. But Joe will have a static line up when the chips are on the table. The past holds this as true. And if you are a sketchy PB arm good luck seeing a BP session. Work on the dance moves
 

fatbeard

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Remember all those people who wanted to trade Baez three years ago? Well, the people who want to trade Russell are just as wrong as they were.

Schwarber I could see them moving if they sign Machado. He slots in at 3B while Bryant would move to LF. Defensive upgrade at both positions.
 

CSF77

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Remember all those people who wanted to trade Baez three years ago? Well, the people who want to trade Russell are just as wrong as they were.

Schwarber I could see them moving if they sign Machado. He slots in at 3B while Bryant would move to LF. Defensive upgrade at both positions.

Schwarber has little trade value being a LF. If he was a catcher then his value skyrockets to untradeable. I don't see a trade scenario that they get a return worth going after.

SS is just a easier sale in general.

But if was just me I would offer a 2 year deal to Murphy with a mutual option.

Murphy 2B
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Schwarber LF
Contreras C
Heyward RF
Pitcher
Almora CF

Now if they were thinking of signing Harper and moving Heyward to CF that could work also. I don't see them having cap space to pull it off though realistically.

2019 tax: 206 mil
Lester 25.8 Mil
Heyward 23 mil
Darvish 21 mil
Hamels 20 mil
Zo 14 mil
Bryant 14 mil is realistic
Chatwood 12.7 mil
Morrow: 10.5 mil
Cishek: 6.5 mil
Rizzo 5.8 mi
Smyly: 5 mil

Russell goes into A2. so that is 3 years of control to sale. Q has $10.5M club option with a buy out. and a 2nd option.

So they could sale Russell and Q. Back fill Smyly in Q's role and add Hamels.

Rotation:
Hamels,Darvish, Lester,Hendricks, Smyly

That moves Russell's 3.2 mil arb1 (3.5 maybe legit) which offset by Baez's Arb1 case which should ellipse it. 5-6 mil IMO.

So looking it over I would rather move Heyward over to CF and keep Almora on the bench. Happ has a bit too much swing and miss for my tastes. Zo in RF feels right honestly. Happ filling in here and there with Almora is perfectly fine.

But in general this team is the best in the NL right now. They really don't need to albatross it. They need to be able to take on pay increase more than log jam. Russell is looking at a slight increase that is not warranted. Baez is looking at a mini payday as is. Then Murphy has honestly been a cog filling in a major team lacking in lead off. Then the 20 mil option that Hamels has earned.

So the whole going after a mega: Stupid and causes hamstrings. opting Hamels for his 1 year. Smart because he would get much more on the open market after this run. Smyly nets cash relief by freeing up Q to replenish the farm system with Russell. Maybe try to get a more durable closer in return after losing Strop and not being hamstrung by Morrow's injuries.
 

TL1961

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Not really. I think that you over valued his puffed up 2016 RBI out put. Everything regressed after that.

But that is fine. If you feel this way then some GM will also and will press for a deal. And Theo would be smart to take it.

Cubs are better now vs waiting. Control = return.

If he was going to be a superstar then it would have happened. What happened is he sat behind a .400 OBA diet and soaked 95 RBI’s while putting up pedestrian numbers. Then he became a constant injury case. You would figure that he was in his 30’s vs under 25.

But keep on over valuing him.

24 year old who is one of the better defensive SS in all of baseball. Played with injuries and still is rock solid on the left side.

But let's get rid of him and replace him in the IF by moving Javy and playing a defensive liability at 2nd. Because surely THAT won't come back to hurt us. When has bad infield defense ever hurt a team??
 

beckdawg

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Not really. I think that you over valued his puffed up 2016 RBI out put. Everything regressed after that.

But that is fine. If you feel this way then some GM will also and will press for a deal. And Theo would be smart to take it.

Cubs are better now vs waiting. Control = return.

If he was going to be a superstar then it would have happened. What happened is he sat behind a .400 OBA diet and soaked 95 RBI’s while putting up pedestrian numbers. Then he became a constant injury case. You would figure that he was in his 30’s vs under 25.

But keep on over valuing him.

From the start of the season through the end of June he hit .285/.355/.407. From July forward when he started to get dinged up badly he hit .213/.272/.272. In just june he was hitting .329/.386/.481 which is a 132 wRC+. Worst case here he's something like a .765 OPS type guy with a gold glove defense. If that's all you think he is that's what Andrelton Simmons is at .299/.346/.426. Simmons is worth 4.8 fWAR this year.
 

beckdawg

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Case in point:

Bryant and Russell both activated off injury.

Neither 100%

Bryant batting 5th

Russell not starting.

WTF are you talking about? Bryant has literally been on the DL for months. Russell has been on the DL a week. They activated him because there was no reason not to with expanded rosters. Worst case is you get some crazy long game and you really need a guy off the bench he's there. But he's not suddenly healthy.
 

CSF77

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From the start of the season through the end of June he hit .285/.355/.407. From July forward when he started to get dinged up badly he hit .213/.272/.272. In just june he was hitting .329/.386/.481 which is a 132 wRC+. Worst case here he's something like a .765 OPS type guy with a gold glove defense. If that's all you think he is that's what Andrelton Simmons is at .299/.346/.426. Simmons is worth 4.8 fWAR this year.

Simmons is 2x the defender Russell is. Russell 100% is top 5 but the distance between the 5 is not this close net thing. I would put Russell as solid when 100%. Not an all star talent.
 

CSF77

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24 year old who is one of the better defensive SS in all of baseball. Played with injuries and still is rock solid on the left side.

But let's get rid of him and replace him in the IF by moving Javy and playing a defensive liability at 2nd. Because surely THAT won't come back to hurt us. When has bad infield defense ever hurt a team??

You do realize that they have only lost 1 game with Murphy in the starting line up right? You guys like making this huge deal about losing D=losing when in reality adding O=winning.

Now if you were talking about a catcher issue like Schwarber who hit home runs but called crap games and let the ball through the knees on a regular basis then I get it. 2B is a lesser impact position. We are just spoiled by Baez
 

CSF77

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WTF are you talking about? Bryant has literally been on the DL for months. Russell has been on the DL a week. They activated him because there was no reason not to with expanded rosters. Worst case is you get some crazy long game and you really need a guy off the bench he's there. But he's not suddenly healthy.

Joe is not pulling Murphy or Baez over Russell this year at all. 2 guys hitting 1-2 in his line up for a guy that he just shoved in the bottom to hide his ineffective bat... even if he was at 134wRC+ peak at worst they would push Murphy into a corner OF because his impact has hit that hard.



Now if you want to go after his homophobia from 2015 as a goto on not signing a deal I’m not going to argue it. It seems like a faith/beliefs issue going on and I doubt his core issues will change and the PR may not want that level of static. I get that. But as far as impact is concerned he came in as a truck.
 

beckdawg

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Simmons is 2x the defender Russell is. Russell 100% is top 5 but the distance between the 5 is not this close net thing. I would put Russell as solid when 100%. Not an all star talent.

I mean 2x the defender is a rather nebulous term. What does that even mean logically? If you're suggesting Simmons is better I'd likely agree with you. But at some point there's diminishing returns on how good someone is. The difference between say Russsell and an average SS makes a difference but the difference between Simmons and Russell is what? Maybe 10 more plays a season?

And fangraphs shows how the win total is formulated so you can specifically take off some defense if you want. Every 10 runs above replacement is a win. Simmons has 45.7 RAR. 7.7 of that RAR comes from offense(7.1 batting and 0.6 base running). 21.4 RAR comes from defense(16.1(his uzr) plus a 5.4 positional adjustment for SS). He then gets another 1.5 for league adjustment and a 15.2 replacement value.

DRS likes Russell a lot more than UZR does but his career UZR/150 is 7.5. In other words, the difference between them would be roughly 0.75 wins. Simmons is going to put up a 5 win season. And I mean for fuck sake how can you say Russell is a 2 win player when he already had a 3.3 win season at age 22? If we're being conservative and assume typical growth as players age into their prime I'd easily suggest 4 wins should be his prime range and that's assuming he's not any better than he's already been. If he's the hitter he was in June he's a 5 or 6 win player.
 

garapp

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Defense is important but greatly overrated. If a team has 8 players who are great defensively and hit .200 as a group they will win fewer games than a team that is average defensively but all 8 players hit .250 or more.

All starting position players catch over 90 per cent of all balls hit within 5 feet of them.

Since when is Murphy a defensive liability ? He has played an adequate defense at 3rd, short and 2nd thruout her career.
 

CSF77

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I mean 2x the defender is a rather nebulous term. What does that even mean logically? If you're suggesting Simmons is better I'd likely agree with you. But at some point there's diminishing returns on how good someone is. The difference between say Russsell and an average SS makes a difference but the difference between Simmons and Russell is what? Maybe 10 more plays a season?

And fangraphs shows how the win total is formulated so you can specifically take off some defense if you want. Every 10 runs above replacement is a win. Simmons has 45.7 RAR. 7.7 of that RAR comes from offense(7.1 batting and 0.6 base running). 21.4 RAR comes from defense(16.1(his uzr) plus a 5.4 positional adjustment for SS). He then gets another 1.5 for league adjustment and a 15.2 replacement value.

DRS likes Russell a lot more than UZR does but his career UZR/150 is 7.5. In other words, the difference between them would be roughly 0.75 wins. Simmons is going to put up a 5 win season. And I mean for fuck sake how can you say Russell is a 2 win player when he already had a 3.3 win season at age 22? If we're being conservative and assume typical growth as players age into their prime I'd easily suggest 4 wins should be his prime range and that's assuming he's not any better than he's already been. If he's the hitter he was in June he's a 5 or 6 win player.

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is a defensive statistic calculated by The Fielding Bible, an organization run by John Dewan, that rates individual players as above or below average on defense. Much like UZR, players are measured in “runs” above or below average, and Baseball Info Solutions data is used as an input. Since DRS is measured in runs, it can be compared easily with a player’s offensive contributions (wRAA or similar statistics).

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is one of the most widely used, publicly available defensive statistics. UZR puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess (or lack thereof). There are a couple different components to UZR, including:

● Outfield Arm Runs (ARM) – The amount of runs above average an outfielder saves with their arm by preventing runners from advancing.
● Double-Play Runs (DPR) – The amount of runs above average an infielder is by turning double-plays.
● Range Runs (RngR) – Is the player an Ozzie Smith or an Adam Dunn? Do they get to more balls than average or not?
● Error Runs (ErrR) – Does the player commit more or fewer errors compared with a league-average player at their position?


Nice tools and does bring the D part of the equation to light.

Now sequencing or Cherie picking 1 month is weak. The game is 6 months. Every player is good enough to get one. Look at Bote. Got hot and now got cold.

Did he factor in June: Team was 15-12. Maybe not as much as you think.

Did Murphy flawed and all factor in Aug?: 18-10 with the team 8-2 with him on board. 10-8 with Russell. Feels pretty June pre Murphy honestly. Playing good enough to win.


Now that is the key here. Russell is a stability player. Even at 100% he is still a stability factor. Almora is that at the plate but he has more Baez to him minus the 30 HR power.

If Russell was a .280 hitter with 15 HR's with his D at SS Murphy would be a downgrade. But Russell sitting at .245 on a good year? I really can't believe this argument is even happening honestly.

Sorry the Cubs can't afford to have D first players absorbing AB's from higher yielding hitters.
 

beckdawg

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Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is a defensive statistic calculated by The Fielding Bible, an organization run by John Dewan, that rates individual players as above or below average on defense. Much like UZR, players are measured in “runs” above or below average, and Baseball Info Solutions data is used as an input. Since DRS is measured in runs, it can be compared easily with a player’s offensive contributions (wRAA or similar statistics).

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is one of the most widely used, publicly available defensive statistics. UZR puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess (or lack thereof). There are a couple different components to UZR, including:

● Outfield Arm Runs (ARM) – The amount of runs above average an outfielder saves with their arm by preventing runners from advancing.
● Double-Play Runs (DPR) – The amount of runs above average an infielder is by turning double-plays.
● Range Runs (RngR) – Is the player an Ozzie Smith or an Adam Dunn? Do they get to more balls than average or not?
● Error Runs (ErrR) – Does the player commit more or fewer errors compared with a league-average player at their position?


Nice tools and does bring the D part of the equation to light.

Now sequencing or Cherie picking 1 month is weak. The game is 6 months. Every player is good enough to get one. Look at Bote. Got hot and now got cold.

Did he factor in June: Team was 15-12. Maybe not as much as you think.

Did Murphy flawed and all factor in Aug?: 18-10 with the team 8-2 with him on board. 10-8 with Russell. Feels pretty June pre Murphy honestly. Playing good enough to win.


Now that is the key here. Russell is a stability player. Even at 100% he is still a stability factor. Almora is that at the plate but he has more Baez to him minus the 30 HR power.

If Russell was a .280 hitter with 15 HR's with his D at SS Murphy would be a downgrade. But Russell sitting at .245 on a good year? I really can't believe this argument is even happening honestly.

Sorry the Cubs can't afford to have D first players absorbing AB's from higher yielding hitters.

Why are you explaining UZR/DRS to me? I know what it is. My question is you're suggesting Simmons is twice as good, but in real baseball terms what does that mean? You're talking about ~8 runs over the course of a season. That's not that big of a difference. Also how is April-june cherry picking? The only reason I cut it off at the end of June was he got hurt at the start of July and the entire point of this was that injuries effected his performance.
 

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Joe is not pulling Murphy or Baez over Russell this year at all. 2 guys hitting 1-2 in his line up for a guy that he just shoved in the bottom to hide his ineffective bat... even if he was at 134wRC+ peak at worst they would push Murphy into a corner OF because his impact has hit that hard.



Now if you want to go after his homophobia from 2015 as a goto on not signing a deal I’m not going to argue it. It seems like a faith/beliefs issue going on and I doubt his core issues will change and the PR may not want that level of static. I get that. But as far as impact is concerned he came in as a truck.
Meh. The Ricketts sister, Laura, was asked about the trade and even had a conversation with Billy Bean, Billy had good things to say about the relationship he has with Murph.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/c...ial-deal-daniel-murphy-gay-comments-pride-day
 

fatbeard

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Defense is important but greatly overrated. If a team has 8 players who are great defensively and hit .200 as a group they will win fewer games than a team that is average defensively but all 8 players hit .250 or more.

All starting position players catch over 90 per cent of all balls hit within 5 feet of them.

Since when is Murphy a defensive liability ? He has played an adequate defense at 3rd, short and 2nd thruout her career.

Murphy is objectively and subjectively a bad fielder and this has been unanimously agreed on throughout baseball for years. Calling him adequate is not really a defendable position.
 

CubsFaninMN

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Murphy is objectively and subjectively a bad fielder and this has been unanimously agreed on throughout baseball for years. Calling him adequate is not really a defendable position.

To paraphrase from the Matrix movies, there are levels of adequate we are prepared to accept... :D
 

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