Brewers at Cubs IST

Spunky Porkstacker · Sep 11, 2018

kapooncha said:
It's been falling apart for some time now. For whatever reason, you're just not seeing it. You will keep quoting FanGraphs to show how the odds favor the Cubs until they no longer do.

Thanks Chi55

anotheridiot · Sep 11, 2018

beckdawg said:
As I said before, if you want to panic when a team is a game or two back then by all means go for it. The point I was always trying to make was until it got this close it wasn't worth whining about. I never said it was a lock that they would win the division. I said they were the overwhelming favorites. Guess what, they still are. They could easily take 2 of 3 in this series and put this fairly close to away with only 15 games remaining for MIL and 17 for the cubs.

I like the way Q has been pitching of late. His last 4 starts have been pretty good. Hendricks has given up 14 runs since the start of august over 42.2 IP which is a 2.95 ERA. MIL also likely blew Hader for at the very least tomorrow and possibly wed too by throwing him 2 innings tonight. Last time Chacin faced the cubs he only lasted 4.2 IP giving up 3 runs and Anderson isn't that great either with a 3.95 ERA.

Would it be better had they won tonight? Sure but frankly I was only ever hoping to win 2 of the games in this series anyways. They didn't play terribly tonight. They lost a 1 run game to a pretty good team. Edwards doesn't throw that wild pitch and who knows what happens. Regardless, they now have to work a bit harder for their meal but like why is the first thought you seem to have that this is where it all falls apart? Even if they get swept this series, their remaining schedule isn't that crazy especially with the fact that Arizona has suddenly started playing terrible ball(3-7 in their last 10) and the fact the cards have come back to earth(5-5 in their last 10). Pitt wont be a cake walk but they are a .500 team. Cincy and the Sox should be fairly easy series.

And the fact remains, the cubs have more games to play so their destiny is in their hands. MiL can't say the same presently.

First off, Edwards has been terrible, he should have never been put in the game with a man on third. Could not just wait til Lester got around to his turn again, he had to push Q and Hondo back a day.

Secondly Council knows this is the playoffs. I wont be surprised seeing Hader today and tomorrow. He sees the sense of urgency and knows a sweep here gets them on top of the division. The brewers are a team that play with a sense of urgency.

Parade_Rain · Sep 11, 2018

kapooncha said:
LMAO. I wonder if Beck, TL, Silence, or Parade can quote some more stats about how Cubs are a lock for the division?

I've never stated the Cubs were a lock for the division. As a matter of fact, I specifically recall making a post about 1969. "Kapooncha" is another way of saying "Hello, my name is Captain Butthurt. I'm an alt."

Parade_Rain · Sep 11, 2018

zack54attack said:
Yeah, time to start worrying..

The Cubs have certainly turned the race into a nailbiter. I mentioned in the OP that they really need to win the series for momentum and pressure sake. I can't remember who it was on the broadcast last night who discussed "playoff experience" and how it wasn't really necessary. Some teams are inexperienced enough that they are dumb enough to ignore the pressure. Outside of a few vets on the 2015 Cubs, that team seems to fit. We'll have to see about the Brew Crew. The Cardinals seem to be slipping back to who we thought they were, albeit a WC contender.

Diehardfan · Sep 11, 2018

Parade_Rain said:
I've never stated the Cubs were a lock for the division. As a matter of fact, I specifically recall making a post about 1969. "Kapooncha" is another way of saying "Hello, my name is Captain Butthurt. I'm an alt."

LOL....what language would that be? I'm thinking maybe American Dumbass.

Diehardfan · Sep 11, 2018

Spunky Porkstacker said:
Thanks Chi55

You know, I just realized that this goof isn't at all hooked on the Cubs....he's hooked on this message board. So he searches the net for any scrap of Cub info, no matter how stupid, just to have something to post here. Now that is someone who really is in need of a life....so he just invents a new one. OMG, that is just too funny.

beckdawg · Sep 11, 2018

kapooncha said:
It's been falling apart for some time now. For whatever reason, you're just not seeing it. You will keep quoting FanGraphs to show how the odds favor the Cubs until they no longer do.

They are 28-22 in the second half which is a .560 win%. The difference between that and their year long win% is literally 1 game which you could easily throw blame on the bullshit washington series. The cubs aren't falling apart. MIL is just playing better of late. The worst month the cubs have had was the 14-13 month of may. No other month is worse than .571 win%. Point here being that the cubs have been steadily good but not great all year. MIL has been more peaks and valleys and is obviously currently playing on a peak.

Also for what it's worth, the best month of baseball the cubs played all season was August going 18-10. But hey you wanna call their season done go for it.

Mr. Cub · Sep 11, 2018

We just might blow the division. Cubs playing like blah shit lately.

zack54attack · Sep 11, 2018

Parade_Rain said:
The Cubs have certainly turned the race into a nailbiter. I mentioned in the OP that they really need to win the series for momentum and pressure sake. I can't remember who it was on the broadcast last night who discussed "playoff experience" and how it wasn't really necessary. Some teams are inexperienced enough that they are dumb enough to ignore the pressure. Outside of a few vets on the 2015 Cubs, that team seems to fit. We'll have to see about the Brew Crew. The Cardinals seem to be slipping back to who we thought they were, albeit a WC contender.

I still think the Cubs get in. But a week ago I was solid on them winning the NL Central. Now, I want to avoid that damn coin flip game as much as possible.

beckdawg · Sep 11, 2018

Mr. Cub said:
We just might blow the division. Cubs playing like blah shit lately.

Really wish people would stop saying this because it isn't true. They've been playing the same way they have all season which has been pretty good but definitely not great. The difference is the teams around them have played substantially better than they have all season. For example, MIL in the first half had a .561 win% and in the second half has a .596 win%. STL had that ridiculous august. The cubs second half is literally 1 game worse than their seasonal win rate.

Now if you want to argue that's semantics and the only thing that matters is the end result being that the cubs have lost ground that's fine. But it's important why that is happening because as I illustrated with the cards in august if a team is playing well above it's talent level for a period of time that is likely to regress. MIL is 15-5 in their last 20 games. That's why the division lead shrunk. That pace is just as absurd as the one the Cards had in August. I don't believe that will continue just like I didn't believe the cards would continue to win at an 80% clip. They are 5-5 in their last 10 btw.

zack54attack · Sep 11, 2018

beckdawg said:
Really wish people would stop saying this because it isn't true. They've been playing the same way they have all season which has been pretty good but definitely not great. The difference is the teams around them have played substantially better than they have all season. For example, MIL in the first half had a .561 win% and in the second half has a .596 win%. STL had that ridiculous august. The cubs second half is literally 1 game worse than their seasonal win rate.

Now if you want to argue that's semantics and the only thing that matters is the end result being that the cubs have lost ground that's fine. But it's important why that is happening because as I illustrated with the cards in august if a team is playing well above it's talent level for a period of time that is likely to regress. MIL is 15-5 in their last 20 games. That's why the division lead shrunk. That pace is just as absurd as the one the Cards had in August. I don't believe that will continue just like I didn't believe the cards would continue to win at an 80% clip. They are 5-5 in their last 10 btw.

That disaster of a series (Thanks MLB) in Washington didn't help either.

Parade_Rain · Sep 11, 2018

beckdawg said:
Really wish people would stop saying this because it isn't true. They've been playing the same way they have all season which has been pretty good but definitely not great. The difference is the teams around them have played substantially better than they have all season. For example, MIL in the first half had a .561 win% and in the second half has a .596 win%. STL had that ridiculous august. The cubs second half is literally 1 game worse than their seasonal win rate.

Now if you want to argue that's semantics and the only thing that matters is the end result being that the cubs have lost ground that's fine. But it's important why that is happening because as I illustrated with the cards in august if a team is playing well above it's talent level for a period of time that is likely to regress. MIL is 15-5 in their last 20 games. That's why the division lead shrunk. That pace is just as absurd as the one the Cards had in August. I don't believe that will continue just like I didn't believe the cards would continue to win at an 80% clip. They are 5-5 in their last 10 btw.

Hopefully for the board's sake, Milwaukee gets back to being Milwaukee the rest of September.

beckdawg · Sep 11, 2018

And just to be clear, I want to point out that I have more faith in MIL continuing to be good than I did in STL in August. IMO, MIL and the cubs are the two best teams in the NL. I think the cubs are slightly better but if someone were to argue the opposite I wouldn't think that was too crazy. That being said, if the brewers continue on a 60% win rate which they've played in the second half they go 10-7. If the cubs play at their seasonal win rate they go 11-8. Cubs would finish 94-68 to the brewers 93-69. With all but 4 of their 19 games in the city of chicago and having 6 games vs the reds and sox going 11-8 doesn't seem that tough for the cubs. The question is more how much MIL cools off.

CSF77 · Sep 11, 2018

beckdawg said:
And just to be clear, I want to point out that I have more faith in MIL continuing to be good than I did in STL in August. IMO, MIL and the cubs are the two best teams in the NL. I think the cubs are slightly better but if someone were to argue the opposite I wouldn't think that was too crazy. That being said, if the brewers continue on a 60% win rate which they've played in the second half they go 10-7. If the cubs play at their seasonal win rate they go 11-8. Cubs would finish 94-68 to the brewers 93-69. With all but 4 of their 19 games in the city of chicago and having 6 games vs the reds and sox going 11-8 doesn't seem that tough for the cubs. The question is more how much MIL cools off.

Cubs have a series at AZL. Crew has Cubs and Stl as hard match ups.

Edge favors Mil.

I was a little concerned that this might implode. Cubs bought time with adding Hamels, Murphy and bolstering the pen. But in reality all they were doing was plugging the leaks caused by injury and Chatwood and Edwards’ tank jobs.

All I can say is the team that takes the series takes the Central. Cubs can’t make up the lead with the harder schedule

beckdawg · Sep 11, 2018

CSF77 said:
Cubs have a series at AZL. Crew has Cubs and Stl as hard match ups.

Arizona is playing quite poorly of late. 2-8 in their last 10. 5-10 in their last 15. Granted some of that was vs a good atlanta team and the dodgers but they were 1-2 vs SF and 1-1 vs SD. They aren't exactly playing their best baseball right now. I'd honestly prefer the cubs schedule if not for the fact that they don't have any off days. If we exclude the 2 games left in this series, MIL has 3 game home series vs Pit cincy and detroit and 2 away series vs STL and PIT. Of their remaining 17 games 8 of them are on the road. Cubs technically have 7 road games left out of 19 but 3 of those are against the sox so from the 21st through the end of the season they don't leave chicago again.

Cubs as I mentioned earlier have been substantially better at home.

Also if MLB pushes that washington game back to oct 1 because of the hurricane I like the cubs schedule even more. MIL going to pit and stl who are clearly still trying to win isn't going to be easy for them.

beckdawg · Sep 11, 2018

To follow up my previous comment, the reason home/away matters so much is the league as a whole in 2018 is 1132-1016(.527) at home. So, in a purely neutral environment the home team wins about 6% more often than the away team and you can imagine that gets better for better teams. For example, you look at the top 10 teams this season and they go like this

BOS - 71%
HOU - 55.6%
NYY - 66.7%
OAK - 61.3%
CHC - 63.8%
MIL - 62.5%
CLE - 61.1%
ATL - 52.1%
STL - 55.1%
COL - 54.9%

CSF77 · Sep 11, 2018

Doesn’t change the fact that the team with the edge most likely wins the central.

Mil is 6-2 up on the Cubs in the head to head. Cubs can’t even tie them right now.

Basically they go 2-1 then they are ahead.

1-2 they are behind.

0-3 might as well case the book because this is getting ugly.

beckdawg · Sep 11, 2018

CSF77 said:
Doesn’t change the fact that the team with the edge most likely wins the central.

Mil is 6-2 up on the Cubs in the head to head. Cubs can’t even tie them right now.

Basically they go 2-1 then they are ahead.

1-2 they are behind.

0-3 might as well case the book because this is getting ugly.

You're either not stating your stats correct or just flat out wrong here. This season the cubs are 10-7 vs MIL. So, I'm not sure where you get this 6-2 number from.

kapooncha · Sep 11, 2018

beckdawg said:
You're either not stating your stats correct or just flat out wrong here. This season the cubs are 10-7 vs MIL. So, I'm not sure where you get this 6-2 number from.

He meant MIL is 6-2 in the last 8 against the Cubs. And you know that but you're pretending not to for some reason.

CSF77 · Sep 11, 2018

kapooncha said:
He meant MIL is 6-2 in the last 8 against the Cubs. And you know that but you're pretending not to for some reason.

No I thought that was the record because that was being posted on the Cub site and I’m at work and don’t have the time to honestly fact check.

Which is perfectly fine honestly.

I see it as Lester might have gotten injured.

Hamels had a human episode.

Smyly got shut down.

Edwards just plain sucks now.

Duesing still sucks.

Man I could go on here but the momentum is not in their favor and Mil is in the catbirds seat right now.

They lose this series hang it up.

The only way this gets right is to kick the shit out of them vs depend on others to do it. Man up boys.

Brewers at Cubs IST

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