Trubisky's Progression from week to week....stats and technique review

modo

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These stats mean nothing without distance traveled on the pass's. If the average pass in week one traveled 12 yards, while the average pass in week 3 traveled 5 yards, you can't compare the two. JV football players in high school could throw a complete shovel pass.
The yards per attempt is a very telling stat.....his completion percentage and his yards per attempt increasing and he had more air yards in arizona... his last game. It is getting better

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Myk

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Clicking around last year's games (in real time) I think there's a lot of learning going on this year beyond just a new system. He was showing a lot of up side, people have poor memories if they think this is the best he can look. If this staff knows what they're doing he might be amazing once it clicks.

I don't remember this Browns game. Not RRP, Fox goes for and gets 4&1?
 

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Thanks, Modo. Good information. Please keep going.
 

xer0h0ur

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These stats mean nothing without distance traveled on the pass's. If the average pass in week one traveled 12 yards, while the average pass in week 3 traveled 5 yards, you can't compare the two. JV football players in high school could throw a complete shovel pass.

Nice to see you crawled out from under the rock after the Lions finally got a W.
 

ursamajor

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They're going to rush him hard and stack the box most likely. Could be ugly if he doesn't turn a corner.

Tampa’s Defense is Mel Tucker Bears Bad.

Maybe they will go blitz happy like AZ. But AZ has a better pass rush, and secondary. I guess in that sense, it was a good prep game for Mitch and the offense.

Either way, I expect Mitch to continue improving.




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Bears_804

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Tampa’s Defense is Mel Tucker Bears Bad.

Maybe they will go blitz happy like AZ. But AZ has a better pass rush, and secondary. I guess in that sense, it was a good prep game for Mitch and the offense.

Either way, I expect Mitch to continue improving.




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Only exposure I have to the Bucs D was watching the Steelers game. They pressured Ben in the 1st half quite a bit before I lost interest. Just wanted to see our opponent a bit before Sunday. I'm all on board for the Trubisky improvement narrative, I'm just really not happy with the performance so far. I think that's justified. Others have a different opinion. Still hopeful they turn it around.
 

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Tampa’s Defense is Mel Tucker Bears Bad.

Maybe they will go blitz happy like AZ. But AZ has a better pass rush, and secondary. I guess in that sense, it was a good prep game for Mitch and the offense.

Either way, I expect Mitch to continue improving.




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I am not sure holding Pittsburgh Offense to 0 points in the second half counts as "Mel Tucker bad", but this defense does have glaring weaknesses to exploit for sure. Your overall point is valid.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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I've posted pieces of this information in different threads...I thought I would collect them here....

I know some here exclaim him a bust....some say wait and see very few say he will be the man......

We all want him to be up to speed and throwing TDs to win games.....

This info was for my own edification of what Trubisky is actually doing and how or if he was truly getting better....

I decided to post his stats from week to week to include completion percentage, number of times he left the pocket and ran, and his yards per attempt...

I also decided to count the number of throws where he had a clean pocket and got time to set his feet when he threw and whether he threw with good or bad technique and what his completion percentage was.....I did not include super quick screens or passes that could not require time enough to plant or rollouts and passes on the move....only clean enough pocket passes

Week 1 Green Bay

14 good throws and 10 completions 71.4%
16 bad throws and 9 completions 56.3%

7 scrambles for runs 4.9 Passing Yards per attempt

week 1 Trubisky looked uncomfortable in the pocket

Week 2 Seattle

14 good throws and 10 completions 71.4%
8 bad throws and 4 completions 50%

5 scrambles for runs 5.9 passing yards per attempt

week 2 was highlighted by more designed rollouts and less pocket throws

Week 3 Arizona

18 good throws and 13 completions 72.2%
6 bad throws and 2 completions 33.3%

2 scrambles for runs 6.3 passing yards per attempt

week 3 included more attacks down field...Arizona blitzed more so Trubisky had to leave the pocket more often


Conclusion......I doubt numbers will change anyone's minds, especially given Bears fans emotions surrounding the QB position, but I see slow, steady progress....Trubisky is much better when he has time to plant his feet (like most QBs) and I see him doing this more often from week to week on his pocket throws.....also, after week 1, the coaching staff is mobilizing him from the pocket a little more.

Thanked for the effort.

I wish I had Game Pass to test your hypothesis (not as an adversary but in the spirit of finding the truth), but let's say that your results are valid: he is in fact planting feet more often in a decent pocket. Now I would like to test the success rate of those planted throws in terms of "big play" attempts which could be related to those "intended air yards" which you say is higher than Brees.

This might reveal that my concerns are still not getting better by my hypothesis: that he is missing (even when planting) when the throw is deep or the throw is highly consequential like an endzone attempt.

If these "big play" attempts show he is missing (even with a good plant), that is worrisome. If these "big play" attempts show he is missing due to a bad plant even if the pocket is decently clean, that is just as worrisome.

I guess I am pointing out rationally why some may not be convinced that there is progress to be concluded from this since the results of "big play" completions are just as low week to week - even if your commendable research shows his planting is better on "big play" attempts week to week.
 

TexasBearfan

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if you remember when cutler first got here he was throwing red zone INTs....it's harder in the red zone, I think over the years Cutler improved on his fade and back shoulder...I know trubs threw a nice pass to shaheen at cincy last year but I think he needs to get better on the fades...but he has certainly not mastered the red zone as yet
 

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The numbers would seem to indicate Week 3 was his best game, which would go against everything our eyes told us. Hmmm. I did notice in the Arizona game, Trubisky did much better dealing with the blitz and finding his out. He also had a really nice medium/long throw to Burton that would've been incomplete in previous games. Although he did miss that open post route to Robinson by a mile. Overall, I guess I shouldn't be too too surprised. The lack of any touchdown throws doesn't necessarily make the Arizona game his worst, I suppose, but boy, it looked and felt like he really couldn't get much going that game.

In any case, I think we can all agree that Trubisky needs to get better. I'm willing to give him the year to learn the offense and grow. But if at the end of the year, he hasn't made serious strides, I won't continue to stand up for a mediocre-to-bad quarterback.
 

nc0gnet0

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Nice to see you crawled out from under the rock after the Lions finally got a W.

Not sure what your talking about, have been posting all along, with the exception of the time I was in the hospital.......
 

Bears_804

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The numbers would seem to indicate Week 3 was his best game, which would go against everything our eyes told us. Hmmm. I did notice in the Arizona game, Trubisky did much better dealing with the blitz and finding his out. He also had a really nice medium/long throw to Burton that would've been incomplete in previous games. Although he did miss that open post route to Robinson by a mile. Overall, I guess I shouldn't be too too surprised. The lack of any touchdown throws doesn't necessarily make the Arizona game his worst, I suppose, but boy, it looked and felt like he really couldn't get much going that game.

In any case, I think we can all agree that Trubisky needs to get better. I'm willing to give him the year to learn the offense and grow. But if at the end of the year, he hasn't made serious strides, I won't continue to stand up for a mediocre-to-bad quarterback.
I said before the season started I was going to give him to the end of the year as well, but after seeing how dominant the defense is, I think I got ahead of myself and started being really hard on him. I didn't expect to have this level of D, and the QB play is the main hindrance in this team going deep into post season. Trying to get back on track, but man he's looked shaky at best.
 

nc0gnet0

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Trubisky's intended air yards is exactly the same as Carson Wentz and just higher than Cam Newton. Higher than Brees.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-intended-yards



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Well, Yes no, maybe. Only looking at averages can be deceiving. One or two long toss's can skew the average quite a bit. More curious to see the mean, than the average. Not sure if I am explaining myself well, but not unlike a RB that is averaging 2 yards a carry, then has one long gainer for 60 yards, upping his YPC to 6+. Then again, maybe I am wrong, but it seems to me MT's improvements has been as much about play calls and managing him as much as it is actual improvement in fundamentals. Granted, that is just an eye test and not hard number crunching.
 

TexasBearfan

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btw I moved to New England in 2006, my wife is a NE girl and I watch almost all Patriots games. Brady is the best red zone QB I've seen and the majority of his throws are in the middle to the back line of the end zone and also to the left or right side near the pylon. I'm not really certain if the plays are just better at getting people open in the red zone or if it's all Brady but it would take a while for Trubs to get that efficient.
 

modo

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Thanked for the effort.

I wish I had Game Pass to test your hypothesis (not as an adversary but in the spirit of finding the truth), but let's say that your results are valid: he is in fact planting feet more often in a decent pocket. Now I would like to test the success rate of those planted throws in terms of "big play" attempts which could be related to those "intended air yards" which you say is higher than Brees.

This might reveal that my concerns are still not getting better by my hypothesis: that he is missing (even when planting) when the throw is deep or the throw is highly consequential like an endzone attempt.

If these "big play" attempts show he is missing (even with a good plant), that is worrisome. If these "big play" attempts show he is missing due to a bad plant even if the pocket is decently clean, that is just as worrisome.

I guess I am pointing out rationally why some may not be convinced that there is progress to be concluded from this since the results of "big play" completions are just as low week to week - even if your commendable research shows his planting is better on "big play" attempts week to week.


all of Trubisky's throws are on youtube....

sure, my method may not be perfect but I working with what I have available.......

Trubisky does not have as many consistantly 20+ yard attempts as other QBs but he has some long ones.....

Looking at the game stats, Trubisky has a number of throws form 1 to 10 yards that is consistent with most NFL QBs.....

The biggest difference is the 10 to 20 yard are where he is low and the LOS or less where he is high.....The test will be when he can produce more intermediate passes. This offense has lacked those.
 

modo

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Well, Yes no, maybe. Only looking at averages can be deceiving. One or two long toss's can skew the average quite a bit. More curious to see the mean, than the average. Not sure if I am explaining myself well, but not unlike a RB that is averaging 2 yards a carry, then has one long gainer for 60 yards, upping his YPC to 6+. Then again, maybe I am wrong, but it seems to me MT's improvements has been as much about play calls and managing him as much as it is actual improvement in fundamentals. Granted, that is just an eye test and not hard number crunching.


see my above post
 

modo

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Lets compare Aaron Rodgers, the goat, to Trubisky this year in terms of throw depth and success this year


Aaron Rodgers

20+ - 3 of 15 for 130 yards

10 to 20 - 8 of 19 for 232 yards

1 to 10 - 48 of 59 for 351 yards

los or less - 18 of 29 for 119 yards


Mitch Trubisky

20+ - 3 of 15 for 128 yards

10 to 20 - 6 of 13 for 60 yards

1 to 10 - 38 of 48 for 291 yards

los or less - 24 of 27 for 92 yards



Conclusions


Rodgers and Trubisky are nearly identical on deep passes......

Nearly identical on short passes

Rodgers got more effeciency on LOS or less passes but nearly identical

The big difference is the intermediate passes where Rodgers got ridiculous production, but Mitch has been more accurate......


So is Trubisky potentially close?


Obviously a big difference is TD passes......Rodgers' WRs whether it is routes run or other factors get more production out of short and intermediate passes
 

TexasBearfan

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Lets compare Aaron Rodgers, the goat, to Trubisky this year in terms of throw depth and success this year


Aaron Rodgers

20+ - 3 of 15 for 130 yards

10 to 20 - 8 of 19 for 232 yards

1 to 10 - 48 of 59 for 351 yards

los or less - 18 of 29 for 119 yards


Mitch Trubisky

20+ - 3 of 15 for 128 yards

10 to 20 - 6 of 13 for 60 yards

1 to 10 - 38 of 48 for 291 yards

los or less - 24 of 27 for 92 yards



Conclusions


Rodgers and Trubisky are nearly identical on deep passes......

Nearly identical on short passes

Rodgers got more effeciency on LOS or less passes but nearly identical

The big difference is the intermediate passes where Rodgers got ridiculous production, but Mitch has been more accurate......


So is Trubisky potentially close?


keep in mind a lot of those yards aren't from amazing passes but our defense springing Randall Cobb by being out of position.
 

modo

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lets do Goff...if Trubisky could be Goff that would be nice...


Goff

20+ - 2 of 5 for 79 yards

10 to 20 - 23 of 36 for 435 yards

1 to 10 - 29 of 41 for 257 yards

los or less - 17 of 19 for 158 yards



These deep throws don't really equate to where the production is

Goffs intermediate passing...holy shit good....this seems to be where the money is made for QBs......

short passes almost identical

LOS or less passes more efficient....this means that the WRs and RBs are doing a lot of work here



more conclusions.....it is about the intermediate passing game......we have not really had one yet....
 

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