Offseason rumors/discussion thread

anotheridiot said:

I hope Alzolay takes a step forward then. In all reality, guys like Zobrist and Hamels are probably not ever going to be paid more than they get this year, so either of them will be seen as taking a discount.

You just need to question the desire to let the Botes and Happ develop when you go and take away 2B games for both of them by signing Decalso. Probably the only reason Bote makes the opening day roster is because Russell is suspended and they just end up jamming up the playing time in the outfield.

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If you are coDependant on Bote or Happ then you are in trouble

beckdawg said:

And I literally gave you the 2 major players who are gone after 2019(Zobrist and Hamels). Zobrist and Hamels aren't worth 15 wins. And more to the point, it's not like the players the cubs have are going to fall off hard from 2018 performance. If anything they should be better. Baez is likely the only one who over performed outside of Zobrist who will likely be gone anyways.

I think you are just throwing out a wild ass guess of a number with no context of what 80 wins really looks like which is my gripe. To put some context into this, the 2014 cubs went 73-89. That teams starting 8 was Welington Castillo, Rizzo, Darwin Barney, Starlin Castro, Luis Valbuena, Chris Coghlan, Arismendy Alcantara and Nate Schierholtz. Their starting 5 was Travis Wood, Jake Arrieta, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Jeff Samardzija/Hendricks. So what you're talking about is a team that's 7-8 wins better than that. Which is like Bryant on a good year being 4-5 wins and a 2-3 win player like Schwarber was better than that 2014 team. There's FAR more talent on the current cubs than that 2014 team. Barney couldn'thit to save his life. Valbuena wasn't a starter. Alcantara(breaks my heart) wasn't either. Schierholtz was a 4th/5th OF who started......etc.

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Who said Zobrist and Hamels was worth 15 wins????

All I said was if their not going to make significant improvements to the roster over the next year because of a budget and they have guys tied to high salaries that will probably decline in production and a couple guys they may look to extend that will be costly, I think theyll fall back to a .500 team by 2020 ..

That just my opinion

CSF77 said:

If you are coDependant on Bote or Happ then you are in trouble

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You want to see if they can indeed play well enough so you dont offer Zo 12 million to stick around another year. Right now the opportunities for Zo have been cut at second base let alone letting Bote or Happ play any games there. I am sure if healthy Zobrist will start the year as the starting 2B, but the other games will go de ex cardso

anotheridiot said:

You want to see if they can indeed play well enough so you dont offer Zo 12 million to stick around another year. Right now the opportunities for Zo have been cut at second base let alone letting Bote or Happ play any games there. I am sure if healthy Zobrist will start the year as the starting 2B, but the other games will go de ex cardso

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No

They get plenty of opertunites and their performance dictates. Right now they are platoon players. Until they change that the he team owes them nothing but a paycheck.

These kids are trying to keep out of AAA limbo as is. Hand outs are not given to kids with options.

chibears55 said:

Who said Zobrist and Hamels was worth 15 wins????

All I said was if their not going to make significant improvements to the roster over the next year because of a budget and they have guys tied to high salaries that will probably decline in production and a couple guys they may look to extend that will be costly, I think theyll fall back to a .500 team by 2020 ..

That just my opinion

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Doubt it. 2020 is a reset of sorts. I believe that they are shedding Hamels, Zobrist, Kintzler and Duesing. Basically 33M. I honestly could see them building up value with Heyward and Chatwood and flipping them when the time is right also.

So I see the most likely thing coming up is they reset everting thing from the top down. Starting with Joe. Honestly they have set it up with kinda unknown coaches that they could bring in Joe G. And let him hand pick his staff. Then start to flip guys like Chatwood and Heyward. The timing is just bad on both right now. But given opertunity to reinstate their values is by far the smartest choice.

If it was me I would mulligan this year. Let Joe do his thing with the stipulation that they are looking to bring up trade weight.

So in general

CSF77 said:

No

They get plenty of opertunites and their performance dictates. Right now they are platoon players. Until they change that the he team owes them nothing but a paycheck.

These kids are trying to keep out of AAA limbo as is. Hand outs are not given to kids with options.

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Did you even watch last year? Bote with walkoffs and he is on the bench the next day or two. How much more does he have to do to earn more time? Javy-esque defensive plays and fucking Stella is in the next game. If you dont agree with me, what is really the reason Stella was traded to the angels? Theo wanted him to get a shot to play more? Really? Theo was sick of seeing him in the lineup. Then instead of clearing the path for Bote, Happ or Nico, he shoots himself in the foot with another guy Madden will play more than he should.

What more can he do if Joe plays his favorites regardless if a guy just went 4-5. You say the veterans need consistent at bats, what more do the kids need to do? Play well, play tomorrow, not this Pinella bullshit of they only did good because he put them in the position to succeed.

chibears55 said:

Who said Zobrist and Hamels was worth 15 wins????

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You effectively did. They were a 95 win team last year. You're saying by 2020 they will be a .500 team with no major improvements. The only major players of note they are losing are Zobrist and Hamels after 2019. Jason Heyward is 29. He's not gonna fall off because of age despite making money. Lester may lose some but you're talking maybe a win. He could easily still be a 2 win pitcher at 36. Darvish gave them 0.2 fWAR in 2018. In other words, he will EASILY be more valuable in 2020 assuming he actually pitches. So even with an extremely conservative view of these players it's going to be a wash because there's no reason Heyward should be any worse than 2018 and in fact could very will be better if he's healthy all year and whatever value you may lose in Lester you're gaining if Darvish is healthy.

That's why saying they will be a .500 team is absurd. You've literally given no rationale for why they are going to be 15 games worse than 2018 that makes any sense. Basically everything that could go wrong did go wrong in 2018 and they won 95 games. And to make matters worse none of this conversation factors in young players actually developing. Any one of Almora, Happ, Schwarber and Contreras could break out in a fashion similar to Baez.

anotheridiot said:

Did you even watch last year? Bote with walkoffs and he is on the bench the next day or two. How much more does he have to do to earn more time? Javy-esque defensive plays and fucking Stella is in the next game. If you dont agree with me, what is really the reason Stella was traded to the angels? Theo wanted him to get a shot to play more? Really? Theo was sick of seeing him in the lineup. Then instead of clearing the path for Bote, Happ or Nico, he shoots himself in the foot with another guy Madden will play more than he should.

What more can he do if Joe plays his favorites regardless if a guy just went 4-5. You say the veterans need consistent at bats, what more do the kids need to do? Play well, play tomorrow, not this Pinella bullshit of they only did good because he put them in the position to succeed.

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Do you look at splits? 134 wRC+ vs left. 79 vs R. Looking at the replay of a clutch hit is fine but let’s be real. That 1 clutch moment is a 1/200 of his PA’s. He is a decent UI and a decent PH option vs left. That is what he is and honestly I doubt that he is sad. 3 years ago he was on the outs in baseball. Hard work has gotten him this far. And honestly his talent is not special. He just needs to excell on what got him there.

anotheridiot said:

Did you even watch last year? Bote with walkoffs and he is on the bench the next day or two. How much more does he have to do to earn more time? Javy-esque defensive plays and fucking Stella is in the next game. If you dont agree with me, what is really the reason Stella was traded to the angels? Theo wanted him to get a shot to play more? Really? Theo was sick of seeing him in the lineup. Then instead of clearing the path for Bote, Happ or Nico, he shoots himself in the foot with another guy Madden will play more than he should.

What more can he do if Joe plays his favorites regardless if a guy just went 4-5. You say the veterans need consistent at bats, what more do the kids need to do? Play well, play tomorrow, not this Pinella bullshit of they only did good because he put them in the position to succeed.

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What in the fuck are you talking about? Bote had more PA than LaStella and he played in 50 less games. 90% of LaStella's game was pinch hitting. Bote had some clutch hits but he hit a whopping .239....so the future rests on a .239 hitter, yeah right. He might not even make the team next year. Joe gave him his chances and he was pretty much meh other than a few late inning eruptions.

And please tell us again how you know this "inside" info on why Theo does things....we would all love to hear how you get these "scoops".

Diehardfan said:

What in the fuck are you talking about? Bote had more PA than LaStella and he played in 50 less games. 90% of LaStella's game was pinch hitting. Bote had some clutch hits but he hit a whopping .239....so the future rests on a .239 hitter, yeah right. He might not even make the team next year. Joe gave him his chances and he was pretty much meh other than a few late inning eruptions.

And please tell us again how you know this "inside" info on why Theo does things....we would all love to hear how you get these "scoops".

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Cubs fan celebrate guys that hit below the league average. Don't know why the fans have such low expectations.

Are you seriously arguing about a guy whose prospects on this Cubs team is at best back up for 2019? Bote did have some big hits last season. He's not supplanting Bryant at 3B, He's not supplanting Baez if Baez is 2B. The Cubs have 2 better option for LF. He's good to give a guy a day off versus a lefty starter right now.

Bote is holding Russell’s jockstrap in Apr. anything more he should be ecstatic

https://twitter.com/PJ_Mooney/status/1082285387182206978?s=19

If this is true, better hope most of these guys play up to their potential

Castor76 said:

Are you seriously arguing about a guy whose prospects on this Cubs team is at best back up for 2019? Bote did have some big hits last season. He's not supplanting Bryant at 3B, He's not supplanting Baez if Baez is 2B. The Cubs have 2 better option for LF. He's good to give a guy a day off versus a lefty starter right now.

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No, he is not surplanting Bryant or Baez, but for the month that Russell is out, there were games available, but they went with another veteran. All I am saying is if someone claims they need to produce, but then produce and still get replaced by another bench guy, its showing that the cubs will never want them to develop.

Diehardfan said:

What in the fuck are you talking about? Bote had more PA than LaStella and he played in 50 less games. 90% of LaStella's game was pinch hitting. Bote had some clutch hits but he hit a whopping .239....so the future rests on a .239 hitter, yeah right. He might not even make the team next year. Joe gave him his chances and he was pretty much meh other than a few late inning eruptions.

And please tell us again how you know this "inside" info on why Theo does things....we would all love to hear how you get these "scoops".

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Nobody is talking about searching the pencil pushing stats that non athletes feel smart talking about.

A guy produces, hits a walk off grand slam, and cant start the next day, not because Bryant or Baez was back in, but because LaStella got the start at third. That is all I am talking about. Why does a walk off grand slam not deserve a start the next game?

Cubs may need to shed salary

How much is the Cubs' front office being handcuffed by ownership? Ken Rosenthal's latest column from The Athletic notes that the Cubs would have to make a trade that clears salary even in order to sign a lower-tier reliever like Adam Warren.

It's hard for me to wrap my head around the decision-making this offseason if this is truly the case. Why would the Cubs pick up Cole Hamels' $20 million option (with the Rangers taking Drew Smyly and $7 million as part of the deal) if they essentially now have no money left? Why not non-tender Addison Russell given his domestic violence baggage instead of picking up what looks like something around $4.3 million in arbitration? Those two decisions just don't seem like they were made by a team that is desperate to save money, but apparently the Cubs really wanted to retain both Hamels and Russell that badly. It's a head-scratcher.

What remains, per all reporting this offseason, is a team that can't really spend much more at all due to budget constraints given by ownership.
White Sox sign Herrera

Two-time All-Star reliever Kelvin Herrera has agreed to sign a two-year, $18 million deal with the White Sox, per a report. Full story here.
Padres interested in Gray

The Padres "remain interested in acquiring Sonny Gray," reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. As I noted late last season, the Padres are poised for a leap into contention soon, possibly even this season. The one area where they could stand to upgrade immediately is in the rotation. Buying low on Gray -- whom the Yankees are trying to move this offseason -- for one year to see if moving to the NL West from AL East and into a pitcher-friendly park helps him to revert to being a valuable pitcher makes a lot of sense.

Gray, 29, had a 4.90 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 130 1/3 innings last season. In 2017, he pitched to a 3.55 ERA (122 ERA+) and remember, back in 2015 he was an ace (third in Cy Young voting).
Parker signs with Twins

Reliever Blake Parker is finalizing a deal with the Twins. The free agent will ink a one-year, $3 million pact with Minnesota, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Parker, 33, was very good in 2017, posting a 2.54 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 86 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings. He earned a shot at holding down the Angels' closer job in 2018, but he regressed some. He had a 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 70 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings. He gave up too many home runs (12, which is 1.6 HR/9) while the hit rate, walk rate and strikeout rates all got worse.

Still, it's entirely possible Parker returns to what he was in 2017, in which case that's a very good bullpen arm.

As for the Twins, the bullpen is a bit of a work in progress. Right now, either Addison Reed or Trevor May would be the closer.
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anotheridiot said:

No, he is not surplanting Bryant or Baez, but for the month that Russell is out, there were games available, but they went with another veteran. All I am saying is if someone claims they need to produce, but then produce and still get replaced by another bench guy, its showing that the cubs will never want them to develop.

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He produced about 3 times. He'd still be 3rd on the 2B depth chart unless Happ is in LF that day and Zobrist is in RF.

Castor76 said:

He produced about 3 times. He'd still be 3rd on the 2B depth chart unless Happ is in LF that day and Zobrist is in RF.

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Exactly....he earns starting status based on one swing of the bat? Anotheridiot is just Another mangager wantabee. The guy lives up to his screen name on a near daily basis.

I don't buy any of the financial rumors. Well let me restate that... I think they are misinformed. Simply put, you don't re-sign Hamels at $20 mil to be your #5 starter if you then don't have money to give $4 mil to a reliever. Likewise, while $4 mil for a starting caliber SS like Russell isn't *that* much money, tendering him doesn't make a ton of sense either if they are truly that poor given he's almost certainly going to be in a back up role. And lastly, you have no business telling Harper/Boras to circle back to you before signing if you're anywhere near as poor as the rumors make out.

To me it seems pretty obvious what's going on here. The cubs would like to sign Harper but presently don't have the space in their budget. Presumably they would like to stay under $246 mil in luxury tax which if you assume they are going to spend $5 mil in season on various roster moves leaves them with about $15 mil presently. If you work under the assumption that they want to sign Harper then them being really hesitant on relievers makes sense. You don't have money to give solid deals to guys if you're already having to cut money to get Harper. It also fits with the narrative Theo himself set out that they would need to be creative to make a big addition. This logic also explains why they've basically done nothing this offseason because their entire offseason would revolve around whatever Harper's final number ends up being and how much money they need to clear.

That's not to say I think the cubs are a lock to sign Harper. I think what is likely to happen is he's going to get what he's going to get and if that's something the cubs can feasibly match they might. But they seem to want to keep their options open. In a lot of ways, it would be similar to the Darvish signing in that they didn't think he was going to fit into their 2018 budget but his market never grew as big as was expected.

beckdawg said:

That's not to say I think the cubs are a lock to sign Harper. I think what is likely to happen is he's going to get what he's going to get and if that's something the cubs can feasibly match they might. But they seem to want to keep their options open. In a lot of ways, it would be similar to the Darvish signing in that they didn't think he was going to fit into their 2018 budget but his market never grew as big as was expected.

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I think the situation is this: If Harper really wanted to be in LA, Philadelphia, Washington, or New York right now, he would be. There's nothing stopping any of those teams from offering him an MLB-record contract. So there's something else in the mix, and that's where Theo's "circle back to us before you sign anywhere" comment comes in. Harper really wants to play with Bryant on the Cubs, and the other bidders know this, which is why we're not seeing a furious bidding war. The question is now whether the Cubs will be able to clear enough money that Harper is swayed from simply going with the highest bidder in the end.