Offseason rumors/discussion thread

chibears55 · Oct 23, 2018

My offseason prediction for cubs..

Quintana Schwarber and Russell will be traded

Harper or Machado will be signed

They will upgrade the bullpen

Cubs will have 2 new everyday position players and at least 1 new SP

beckdawg · Oct 23, 2018

chibears55 said:
My offseason prediction for cubs..

Quintana Schwarber and Russell will be traded

Harper or Machado will be signed

They will upgrade the bullpen

Cubs will have 2 new everyday position players and at least 1 new SP

I strongly doubt any of those 3 will be traded personally. You're not going to find a pitcher who's as useful as Q is for the price he's getting paid. Russell has no value. And I've said all I need to on Schwarber. I think they will likely have to package Happ or Monty with Chatwood to rid themselves of that for luxury tax purposes.

I still think Martin/Giles for Chatwood/Happ makes a lot of sense with potentially some lessor parts also being involved. If the cubs can make that move there's not a ton more I'd do. If they can't, I think you can make similar moves with other players to effectively get a closer and a back up C with good framing ability while also ridding yourself of Chatwood. I'd bring back Chavez. I'd bring back Hamels. And I'd sign Machado if I can and if I can't I'd probably try to sign Donaldson or Moustakes. I'd keep Russell at the very least until the trade deadline next july. You're not going to find his kind of talent depth to replace him and you're not going to get value for him so trading him really would be just spiting yourself to save face in PR. From there there's maybe some moves around the edges I might make but I think that's a fairly solid team. You'd have something like...

OF - Schwarber/Almora(quasi-platoon), Heyward, Zobrist(or Bryant)
IF - Bryant(or Zobrist at 2B if Bryant in RF), Machado(or Donaldson/Moustakes), Baez, Rizzo BENCH: Russell(Bote until May), La Stella
C - Martin, Contreras with potentially Caratini in AAA
SP - Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Q
RHP - Morrow, Giles, Strop, Cishek, Chavez, Edwards,
LHP - Monty, Smyly

You'd also have Kintzler/Duensing under contract for ST though I'm not sure either is ideal. Regardless, that's a fairly deep team. And you're not really having to do much fiddling to make this happen. Hamels/Chavez already have said they want to come back. The cubs will be one of the favorites to sign Machado anyways. The biggest speculation on my part is probably the cubs going after Martin/Giles. But, as I said I think it makes a lot of sense for both sides and even if the trade doesn't happen exactly how I outlined I think you still can package Happ/Chatwood some where and come back with the very least a half decent reliever. And there's other good framing C out there that wont cost and arm and a leg.

CSF77 · Oct 23, 2018

beckdawg said:
I strongly doubt any of those 3 will be traded personally. You're not going to find a pitcher who's as useful as Q is for the price he's getting paid. Russell has no value. And I've said all I need to on Schwarber. I think they will likely have to package Happ or Monty with Chatwood to rid themselves of that for luxury tax purposes.

I still think Martin/Giles for Chatwood/Happ makes a lot of sense with potentially some lessor parts also being involved. If the cubs can make that move there's not a ton more I'd do. If they can't, I think you can make similar moves with other players to effectively get a closer and a back up C with good framing ability while also ridding yourself of Chatwood. I'd bring back Chavez. I'd bring back Hamels. And I'd sign Machado if I can and if I can't I'd probably try to sign Donaldson or Moustakes. I'd keep Russell at the very least until the trade deadline next july. You're not going to find his kind of talent depth to replace him and you're not going to get value for him so trading him really would be just spiting yourself to save face in PR. From there there's maybe some moves around the edges I might make but I think that's a fairly solid team. You'd have something like...

OF - Schwarber/Almora(quasi-platoon), Heyward, Zobrist(or Bryant)
IF - Bryant(or Zobrist at 2B if Bryant in RF), Machado(or Donaldson/Moustakes), Baez, Rizzo BENCH: Russell(Bote until May), La Stella
C - Martin, Contreras with potentially Caratini in AAA
SP - Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Q
RHP - Morrow, Giles, Strop, Cishek, Chavez, Edwards,
LHP - Monty, Smyly

You'd also have Kintzler/Duensing under contract for ST though I'm not sure either is ideal. Regardless, that's a fairly deep team. And you're not really having to do much fiddling to make this happen. Hamels/Chavez already have said they want to come back. The cubs will be one of the favorites to sign Machado anyways. The biggest speculation on my part is probably the cubs going after Martin/Giles. But, as I said I think it makes a lot of sense for both sides and even if the trade doesn't happen exactly how I outlined I think you still can package Happ/Chatwood some where and come back with the very least a half decent reliever. And there's other good framing C out there that wont cost and arm and a leg.

After seeing Boston being able to bring out 2 100MPH arms in 1 game it makes me think that a few power arms in the pen holds more weight than over payment on any 1 player.

Eovaldi is really pumping up his value on the market right now.

beckdawg · Oct 23, 2018

CSF77 said:
After seeing Boston being able to bring out 2 100MPH arms in 1 game it makes me think that a few power arms in the pen holds more weight than over payment on any 1 player.

Eovaldi is really pumping up his value on the market right now.

How'd that work out for MIL vs LA? People get over infatuated with relievers. The problem is relievers by in large don't mean that much in the regular season and you have to win the regular season before you can win in the playoffs. But the other aspect of this is reliever arms blow up all the time. It's all fine and well to pencil in 2 dominant relievers in April but that doesn't mean you'll have both or even one for that matter by the time the playoffs roll around.

Simply put you're far safer betting on scoring runs than you are on relievers. What I mean by that is position players are better bets because they help you not only in the regular season but also in the playoffs. Boston won that game because they scored 8 runs not because they had a dominant bullpen. They were the best team in baseblal this year because they scored 5.41 runs a game not because they had the 9th best bullpen by fWAR.

And the thing is cubs fans should know this. How great was the 2016 indians bullpen? Why did the cubs beat them in the world series? Because the 2016 cubs scored 5 runs a game.

kapooncha · Oct 23, 2018

beckdawg said:
I strongly doubt any of those 3 will be traded personally. You're not going to find a pitcher who's as useful as Q is for the price he's getting paid. Russell has no value. And I've said all I need to on Schwarber. I think they will likely have to package Happ or Monty with Chatwood to rid themselves of that for luxury tax purposes.

I still think Martin/Giles for Chatwood/Happ makes a lot of sense with potentially some lessor parts also being involved. If the cubs can make that move there's not a ton more I'd do. If they can't, I think you can make similar moves with other players to effectively get a closer and a back up C with good framing ability while also ridding yourself of Chatwood. I'd bring back Chavez. I'd bring back Hamels. And I'd sign Machado if I can and if I can't I'd probably try to sign Donaldson or Moustakes. I'd keep Russell at the very least until the trade deadline next july. You're not going to find his kind of talent depth to replace him and you're not going to get value for him so trading him really would be just spiting yourself to save face in PR. From there there's maybe some moves around the edges I might make but I think that's a fairly solid team. You'd have something like...

OF - Schwarber/Almora(quasi-platoon), Heyward, Zobrist(or Bryant)
IF - Bryant(or Zobrist at 2B if Bryant in RF), Machado(or Donaldson/Moustakes), Baez, Rizzo BENCH: Russell(Bote until May), La Stella
C - Martin, Contreras with potentially Caratini in AAA
SP - Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Q
RHP - Morrow, Giles, Strop, Cishek, Chavez, Edwards,
LHP - Monty, Smyly

You'd also have Kintzler/Duensing under contract for ST though I'm not sure either is ideal. Regardless, that's a fairly deep team. And you're not really having to do much fiddling to make this happen. Hamels/Chavez already have said they want to come back. The cubs will be one of the favorites to sign Machado anyways. The biggest speculation on my part is probably the cubs going after Martin/Giles. But, as I said I think it makes a lot of sense for both sides and even if the trade doesn't happen exactly how I outlined I think you still can package Happ/Chatwood some where and come back with the very least a half decent reliever. And there's other good framing C out there that wont cost and arm and a leg.

You need to think bigger. The team you have there is essentially the same team we've had the past few years.

beckdawg · Oct 23, 2018

Also re: the relievers, Colorado specifically went out there and signed 3 of the best relievers on the FA market last year to give them a dominant bullpen since they had trouble getting starters to go there. Wade Davis had a 4.13 ERA. Jake McGee had a 6.49 ERA. Bryan Shaw had a 5.93.

JP Hochbaum · Oct 24, 2018

kapooncha said:
You need to think bigger. The team you have there is essentially the same team we've had the past few years.

Is it bad to average 97 wins a year for 4 years?

chibears55 · Oct 24, 2018

beckdawg said:
I strongly doubt any of those 3 will be traded personally. You're not going to find a pitcher who's as useful as Q is for the price he's getting paid. Russell has no value. And I've said all I need to on Schwarber. I think they will likely have to package Happ or Monty with Chatwood to rid themselves of that for luxury tax purposes.

I still think Martin/Giles for Chatwood/Happ makes a lot of sense with potentially some lessor parts also being involved. If the cubs can make that move there's not a ton more I'd do. If they can't, I think you can make similar moves with other players to effectively get a closer and a back up C with good framing ability while also ridding yourself of Chatwood. I'd bring back Chavez. I'd bring back Hamels. And I'd sign Machado if I can and if I can't I'd probably try to sign Donaldson or Moustakes. I'd keep Russell at the very least until the trade deadline next july. You're not going to find his kind of talent depth to replace him and you're not going to get value for him so trading him really would be just spiting yourself to save face in PR. From there there's maybe some moves around the edges I might make but I think that's a fairly solid team. You'd have something like...

OF - Schwarber/Almora(quasi-platoon), Heyward, Zobrist(or Bryant)
IF - Bryant(or Zobrist at 2B if Bryant in RF), Machado(or Donaldson/Moustakes), Baez, Rizzo BENCH: Russell(Bote until May), La Stella
C - Martin, Contreras with potentially Caratini in AAA
SP - Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Q
RHP - Morrow, Giles, Strop, Cishek, Chavez, Edwards,
LHP - Monty, Smyly

You'd also have Kintzler/Duensing under contract for ST though I'm not sure either is ideal. Regardless, that's a fairly deep team. And you're not really having to do much fiddling to make this happen. Hamels/Chavez already have said they want to come back. The cubs will be one of the favorites to sign Machado anyways. The biggest speculation on my part is probably the cubs going after Martin/Giles. But, as I said I think it makes a lot of sense for both sides and even if the trade doesn't happen exactly how I outlined I think you still can package Happ/Chatwood some where and come back with the very least a half decent reliever. And there's other good framing C out there that wont cost and arm and a leg.

You basically have the same team returning...

I gotta feeling Theo gonna make a few changes

chibears55 · Oct 24, 2018

beckdawg said:
How'd that work out for MIL vs LA? People get over infatuated with relievers. The problem is relievers by in large don't mean that much in the regular season and you have to win the regular season before you can win in the playoffs. But the other aspect of this is reliever arms blow up all the time. It's all fine and well to pencil in 2 dominant relievers in April but that doesn't mean you'll have both or even one for that matter by the time the playoffs roll around.

Simply put you're far safer betting on scoring runs than you are on relievers. What I mean by that is position players are better bets because they help you not only in the regular season but also in the playoffs. Boston won that game because they scored 8 runs not because they had a dominant bullpen. They were the best team in baseblal this year because they scored 5.41 runs a game not because they had the 9th best bullpen by fWAR.

And the thing is cubs fans should know this. How great was the 2016 indians bullpen? Why did the cubs beat them in the world series? Because the 2016 cubs scored 5 runs a game.

I think the bullpen upgrade will basically be a LH late guy to go with Strop Edwards and Morrow and the rest of pen will be guys who can give them 2+ innings

Cubs rotation is basically going into the 6th innings most games, i think stocking up on guys who can go 2+ to where they only need to turn to 1 or 2 relievers to get through 8 innings or if their down big, then just burn 1 guy to go 3+ to end the game

I think that would benefit them better and keep the pen fresh all season and would play out well in the postseason

anotheridiot · Oct 24, 2018

chibears55 said:
I think the bullpen upgrade will basically be a LH late guy to go with Strop Edwards and Morrow and the rest of pen will be guys who can give them 2+ innings

Cubs rotation is basically going into the 6th innings most games, i think stocking up on guys who can go 2+ to where they only need to turn to 1 or 2 relievers to get through 8 innings or if their down big, then just burn 1 guy to go 3+ to end the game

I think that would benefit them better and keep the pen fresh all season and would play out well in the postseason

Considering that if the rotation starts as Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Darvish, Q, that already pegs Smyly and Monty for the left handed spot.

CSF77 · Oct 24, 2018

Smyly would replace Wilson and Montgomery gets pushed back to 2 inning work with Darvish returning.

Boston ground out AB’s. No pitcher had a easy time on either side until the velocity stated going over 100 MPH. Those inning were cheese. But sandwiches in between a 96 guy struggled.

That is why I said Eovadeli will be a big name this off. As a starter he is kinda meh. But as a power arm in the pen. Shoot them up. IMO going after him as the 5th starter and pushing into set up in the play offs would be a genius move for any contender. Boston would be stupid to let him get away.

CSF77 · Oct 24, 2018

Also I really like their 1/2 combo. Betts ground out AB’s and was pissed when SO. Like he was offended. Buck was saying that that really doesn’t happen much off of lefties. Then Bernatelli went up slapping hits like he was Tony Gwynn. I really like that dynamic at the top.

JP Hochbaum · Oct 24, 2018

CSF77 said:
Also I really like their 1/2 combo. Betts ground out AB’s and was pissed when SO. Like he was offended. Buck was saying that that really doesn’t happen much off of lefties. Then Bernatelli went up slapping hits like he was Tony Gwynn. I really like that dynamic at the top.

If we can get first half Zobrist and Almora for a season we have that, lol.

anotheridiot · Oct 24, 2018

CSF77 said:
Smyly would replace Wilson and Montgomery gets pushed back to 2 inning work with Darvish returning.

I am constantly mystified why most managers who pull a lefty starter early, usually follow up with a lefty reliever. Now, you line up Lester, Q and Hamels with a righty replacement, the competition empties their bench of left handed pinch hitters (since they started a righty laden lineup), then you toss them back with Monty and Smyly and get back to your advantage.

I really dont want to watch 4 lefties again, so I really hope Darvish comes back,

CSF77 · Oct 24, 2018

JP Hochbaum said:
If we can get first half Zobrist and Almora for a season we have that, lol.

I don’t think that we have a guy like Betts. Bernatelli is like Heyward was pre Cub. Almora has a great hit tool but he needs to put a full year together. Zobrist as a sub works 1 or 2 but being co-depending on a 38 YO in a vital role is lunacy

CSF77 · Oct 24, 2018

Lefties were not the issue. Stop hating on us.

beckdawg · Oct 24, 2018

chibears55 said:
You basically have the same team returning...

I gotta feeling Theo gonna make a few changes

The same team that won 95 games with Machado who's a 5 win player replacing Russell who was worth 1.4 wins as the starting SS. The bullpen is also probably about a win better. I'd estimate that's a 100 win projection type team. People need to get off their high horse here. The 2018 team was good. They don't need a ton of changes. What they need is to fix the issue they had with scoring runs. You don't need to throw out every player they have to do that.

beckdawg · Oct 24, 2018

CSF77 said:
That is why I said Eovadeli will be a big name this off. As a starter he is kinda meh. But as a power arm in the pen. Shoot them up. IMO going after him as the 5th starter and pushing into set up in the play offs would be a genius move for any contender. Boston would be stupid to let him get away.

Here's the problem... if you are thinking this probably half the teams in the league are also thinking this. He's not going to be a value. He'll get over paid. That's another issue I have with people fetishizing relievers. It's so en vogue right now that teams are going to over pay relievers. You gotta zig when other teams are zagging if you want a competitive advantage. In particular, what I think you do isn't signing a guy like him. It's to replicate the thought process that got you him. And that's turning sorta failed starters into good bullpen guys. What's Chavez? A former starter who was dominant for the cubs. What's Smyly a former starter who had dominant stuff when he was in Detroit's bullpen. I'd also potentially throw Danny Hultzan into that conversation.

Like I said there's some moves around the edges of the team I'd still consider making. You can bring in several guys like this on minor league deals and let them fight for a job in the pen. But that's how I'd address the bullpen not throwing money at "proven guys." FA relievers rarely if ever work out that good. Relievers in general are just took up and down year to year. One year you look like 2017 duensing and the next you look like 2018 duensing...etc.

chibears55 · Oct 24, 2018

beckdawg said:
The same team that won 95 games with Machado who's a 5 win player replacing Russell who was worth 1.4 wins as the starting SS. The bullpen is also probably about a win better. I'd estimate that's a 100 win projection type team. People need to get off their high horse here. The 2018 team was good. They don't need a ton of changes. What they need is to fix the issue they had with scoring runs. You don't need to throw out every player they have to do that.

Id put a high percentage on them having 1 or 2 new OFers and 1 new IFer as starters

I think...
Russell will be gone
A new CFer
And maybe Schwarber will be gone

Schwarber will probably depend on if they get Harper instead of Machado

beckdawg · Oct 24, 2018

chibears55 said:
Id put a high percentage on them having 1 or 2 new OFers and 1 new IFer as starters

I think...
Russell will be gone
A new CFer
And maybe Schwarber will be gone

Schwarber will probably depend on if they get Harper instead of Machado

And Schwarber being gone does what? Look you can throw this idea of change out there but if you're not changing for better players then what's the point? Schwarber was the 21st most valuable OF in terms of fWAR. You're not getting Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Yelich, JD Martinez, Cain, Stanton, Benintendi, Bellinger. You're also probably not getting Aaron Hicks, Mitch Nagiger, Brandon Nimmo, Tommy Pham, David Peralta, Starling Marte, and Mallex Smith. Zobrist is already with the cubs. That leaves you with Bryce Harper, Micheal Brantley in FA. The other two names ahead of him are Brian Anderson with the Marlins and Eddie Rosario with the twins. Both are worse hitters than Schwarber. That's why this conversation is dumb. Unless you're signing both Brantley and Harper you're not replacing him with someone who's better and I'd argue even those two aren't necessarily worth the cost to upgrade given the difference in performance and price to pay them.

I think Harper makes more sense as a quasi-CF replacement if you don't want Machado with Heyward going to CF. But the fact of the matter is you're not getting rid of Heyward. He's gonna be with the team. And he's honestly fine in terms of being an OK CF. He would probably have been worth 3 wins this year if he were healthy all year. Compare him and Inciarte who finished with 2.9 fWAR. Heyward's a better hitter in 2018 and maybe a little worse defensively in CF but it's not much.

You can throw out nebulous concepts like they will get 2 new OF's but that's ignoring the reality of what players are realistically out there.

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