Offseason rumors/discussion thread

Do we have any idea of the teams that are on Heyward's no trade list?

12 teams and unknown. 17 are on the ok list.

And he can approve a trade to a team on the "No" list.

Something to think about... if there is speculation the cubs could/will do something it's probably wrong. That's another reason I think this heyward talk is kinda dumb. Look at the past several offseasons. When did they make a move that everyone saw coming? In the case of Lester/Heyward there was obvious interest but it's not like people knew they were a shoein to get them. No on really saw the Castro trade to sign Zobrist coming. No one saw the Soler trade to get Davis coming. Most didn't think the cubs would get Darvish until it was imminent. No one was early on Chatwood or Morrow....etc.

Point here being if the cubs are in on Harper for real it's likely going to be tied to moves we aren't expecting.

beckdawg said:

Something to think about... if there is speculation the cubs could/will do something it's probably wrong. That's another reason I think this heyward talk is kinda dumb. Look at the past several offseasons. When did they make a move that everyone saw coming? In the case of Lester/Heyward there was obvious interest but it's not like people knew they were a shoein to get them. No on really saw the Castro trade to sign Zobrist coming. No one saw the Soler trade to get Davis coming. Most didn't think the cubs would get Darvish until it was imminent. No one was early on Chatwood or Morrow....etc.

Point here being if the cubs are in on Harper for real it's likely going to be tied to moves we aren't expecting.

Click to expand...

I personally think Harper to the Cubs is about 5% odds. I've lost some faith in Theo over the last couple years.

They won 95 games with a starter out all year, the closer out the entire second half, and Kris Bryant out or not at normal production for 4 of 6 months.

Yet people see them as "fringe WC".

The offense performs significantly better when Bryant is hitting (as evidenced by first to worst last year when he got hurt).

Baez may not have as good a year (though we don't know this was a fluke, as he has improved each season), but it is fair to expect Contreras to imrpove as much as it is to expect Javy to fall off.

If Darvish and a full year of Hamels out perform Chatwood/Butler we should expect gains there. I think that's fair to expect.

"Theo's past gaffes"???? WTF?

You don't think Theo has made gaffes?

JimJohnson said:

You don't think Theo has made gaffes?

Click to expand...

2012
Ian Steward to LeMaehu
Not protecting Marwin Gonzalez in the rule V
2013: Signing Edwin Jackson 5/65M
2016: Signing Heyward.
Trading Castro for Adam Warren then re-trading Warren back to the Yankee's with Your #1 Prospect for A rental who then resigns with the Yankees. While taking your talent to boot. But you know the WS Euphoria only lasts so long.
2017: Trading your #1 and 2 prospect for a back of the rotation arm. He was #4 then and he is #4 now. I wish that was a replay.
2018: Signing Chatwood. E-Jax part 2.

That is all I can say about that. When you have a 226M budget and you are ranked as maybe the 2nd best in the NL central vs a Brewers team that has a 114M budget. You know WTF...

But fire a coach and watch the other walk from 'Personal reasons' and then tell Joe to start coaching...with hiring 2 unproven...ya. and then dancing the old we have budget concerns and we have to move...err remove our fuck ups...

Sure they have done good things also. But it is a Yin Yang love affair.

I didn't mention choosing Yu over Jake. That was never my take. Jake was losing velocity and last year really showcased it. Yu has never had velocity issues going in. Stuff wise it is better at this stage and was a injury vs a loss of ability last year. Even Boras sold him as a play off asset vs a TOR. I tend to agree as I see his value closer to Rich Hill where he factors in a play off environment more than the regular season. But you don't pay 25MM per on a play off series.

beckdawg said:

Something to think about... if there is speculation the cubs could/will do something it's probably wrong. That's another reason I think this heyward talk is kinda dumb. Look at the past several offseasons. When did they make a move that everyone saw coming? In the case of Lester/Heyward there was obvious interest but it's not like people knew they were a shoein to get them. No on really saw the Castro trade to sign Zobrist coming. No one saw the Soler trade to get Davis coming. Most didn't think the cubs would get Darvish until it was imminent. No one was early on Chatwood or Morrow....etc.

Point here being if the cubs are in on Harper for real it's likely going to be tied to moves we aren't expecting.

Click to expand...

Zo I did. Joe kept talking him up and you knew it was going to happen eventually. Castro honestly was the worst return off all time. Adam Warren was a joke and they returned him for a worse trade. Swear that is why teams like the Yankees keep getting better. It's bad enough that they can spend anything that they want but then to see them heist teams...sad

I think Darvish to the Cubs was a real thing. The concern was if they were going to spend or not. They did. Hamels has always had a connection dating back to 2014 waver pick. They signed Lester instead.

I think Harper kinda fits the whole Darvish thing more except they would have to blow up budget to make it happen.

Heyward came out of the blue. They had Schwarber and Solar as the future already. And instead of resigning Fowler (who worked) they chose to splurge on Heyward at CF? WTF really? And back peddled to Fowler on a 1 year...because of age? Well they signed Zobrist who was older (I believe) in the same year... some times the hypocrisy astounds me.

You know if they would have resigned Fowler on a 4 year deal and kept Soler and let him figure it out. Then sign a corner OF....injury happens (and it did) this would have been a non issue right now....and we would have a lead off...

CSF77 said:

I didn't mention choosing Yu over Jake. That was never my take. Jake was losing velocity and last year really showcased it. Yu has never had velocity issues going in. Stuff wise it is better at this stage and was a injury vs a loss of ability last year. Even Boras sold him as a play off asset vs a TOR. I tend to agree as I see his value closer to Rich Hill where he factors in a play off environment more than the regular season. But you don't pay 25MM per on a play off series.

Click to expand...

Time will tell. But the Darvish signing could end up being his biggest "gaffe."

Accually I think it was more about sticking it to STL taking Heyward and Lackey vs common sense. Take the 2 guys to make them worse than you. Mental midget shit.

jooo83 said:

Time will tell. But the Darvish signing could end up being his biggest "gaffe."

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I see it as he hits 95 and the ball moves around like a wiffleball

[video=youtube_share;jUbAAurrnwU]https://youtu.be/jUbAAurrnwU[/video]

CSF77 said:

2012
Ian Steward to LeMaehu
Not protecting Marwin Gonzalez in the rule V
2013: Signing Edwin Jackson 5/65M
2016: Signing Heyward.
Trading Castro for Adam Warren then re-trading Warren back to the Yankee's with Your #1 Prospect for A rental who then resigns with the Yankees. While taking your talent to boot. But you know the WS Euphoria only lasts so long.
2017: Trading your #1 and 2 prospect for a back of the rotation arm. He was #4 then and he is #4 now. I wish that was a replay.
2018: Signing Chatwood. E-Jax part 2.

That is all I can say about that. When you have a 226M budget and you are ranked as maybe the 2nd best in the NL central vs a Brewers team that has a 114M budget. You know WTF...

But fire a coach and watch the other walk from 'Personal reasons' and then tell Joe to start coaching...with hiring 2 unproven...ya. and then dancing the old we have budget concerns and we have to move...err remove our fuck ups...

Sure they have done good things also. But it is a Yin Yang love affair.

Click to expand...

A "gaffe" is not a move that didn't work out. a "gaffe" is a move you should be embarrassed about.

You think acquiring Chapman and winning the World Series qualifies as a move you should be embarrassed about?
You think acquiring a terrific defensive outfielder and having a terrific defensive team that won the world series is a move you should be embarrassed about?
Adding an innings eating 5th starter when the team was clearly not yet competitive?
Picking up a starter who was among the top 20 in baseball in ERA over the previous few years while trading from a glut of outfielders?
Taking a chance on Chatwood as a #5 didn't work out. But it is the type of move every team has to make, and is far from a "gaffe".

Are you suggesting that firing Chili Davis was a gaffe?
Are you suggesting they should have forced the pitching coach to stay?

GM's make a lot of moves. Clearly not all work out as well as possible.

But you honestly imply that trading Castro was a gaffe? The team got significantly better the minute he left, and won a WS. Is it a gaffe because they acquired, and then got rid of, the great Adam Warren?

You literally are criticizing the man who built a world series winner for making the moves that out the team over the top. Chapman signing back with the Yankees doesn't make acquiring him - and winning a World Series! - a gaffe. (Would it have been OK of Chapman signed with Minnesota instead? )

The Lemahieu trade is the only bad move on the list and we have had a glut of middle infielders ever since. We are hardly hurting there.

CSF77 said:

Accually I think it was more about sticking it to STL taking Heyward and Lackey vs common sense. Take the 2 guys to make them worse than you. Mental midget shit.

Click to expand...

Taking a player from a division opponent can have a double impact, but they did not sign these guys simply because they were on St Louis.
And neither was anywhere close to a mistake.

CSF77 said:

Zo I did. Joe kept talking him up and you knew it was going to happen eventually. Castro honestly was the worst return off all time. Adam Warren was a joke and they returned him for a worse trade. Swear that is why teams like the Yankees keep getting better. It's bad enough that they can spend anything that they want but then to see them heist teams...sad

I think Darvish to the Cubs was a real thing. The concern was if they were going to spend or not. They did. Hamels has always had a connection dating back to 2014 waver pick. They signed Lester instead.

I think Harper kinda fits the whole Darvish thing more except they would have to blow up budget to make it happen.

Heyward came out of the blue. They had Schwarber and Solar as the future already. And instead of resigning Fowler (who worked) they chose to splurge on Heyward at CF? WTF really? And back peddled to Fowler on a 1 year...because of age? Well they signed Zobrist who was older (I believe) in the same year... some times the hypocrisy astounds me.

You know if they would have resigned Fowler on a 4 year deal and kept Soler and let him figure it out. Then sign a corner OF....injury happens (and it did) this would have been a non issue right now....and we would have a lead off...

Click to expand...

Castro was addition by subtraction. They could have traded him for Elizabeth Warren and it would have been OK.

CSF77 said:

Zo I did. Joe kept talking him up and you knew it was going to happen eventually. Castro honestly was the worst return off all time. Adam Warren was a joke and they returned him for a worse trade. Swear that is why teams like the Yankees keep getting better. It's bad enough that they can spend anything that they want but then to see them heist teams...sad

I think Darvish to the Cubs was a real thing. The concern was if they were going to spend or not. They did. Hamels has always had a connection dating back to 2014 waver pick. They signed Lester instead.

I think Harper kinda fits the whole Darvish thing more except they would have to blow up budget to make it happen.

Heyward came out of the blue. They had Schwarber and Solar as the future already. And instead of resigning Fowler (who worked) they chose to splurge on Heyward at CF? WTF really? And back peddled to Fowler on a 1 year...because of age? Well they signed Zobrist who was older (I believe) in the same year... some times the hypocrisy astounds me.

You know if they would have resigned Fowler on a 4 year deal and kept Soler and let him figure it out. Then sign a corner OF....injury happens (and it did) this would have been a non issue right now....and we would have a lead off...

Click to expand...

This is insanity!

They should have had an OF of Soler, Fowler and Schwarber??

Fowler on a one year deal was PERFECT.

A 4 year deal?? The guy can't play OF, and is so-so offensively. The FIRST year gone, he missed significant time. He is not a young man.

Criticize away for Darvish over Jake......but you better look at Jake's numbers before you do. Jake wanted $ 200 million, and had lost significant velocity. He had a fe good games for Philly in 2018, but by the end of the year Phillie fans were not happy with the signing, and he was clearly a #4 at best. I love Jake, and part of me wanted him to sign with the Cubs. But the GM has to be brains over heart, and Theo absolutely got that right. (And yet it is considered a gaffe!)

Darvish was underwhelming early on, but missed most of the year due to injury. But we of course criticize our GM for not seeing that.

Jesus, what does Theo have to do to get you to stop thinking he is terrible????? I think there just may be a few people in the game of baseball ho think he's pretty good.

TL1961 said:

Taking a player from a division opponent can have a double impact, but they did not sign these guys simply because they were on St Louis.
And neither was anywhere close to a mistake.

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Bullshit. Heyward was a huge mistake.

Call me crazy but I actually like Heyward on the 5/$106 mil he has left though I think they should be playing him in CF. I mean Brantley and McCutchen just got $16 and $16.6 mil, are 32, and neither really is a plus defender. Brantley can only play LF and McCutchen is a below average RF. Heyward is 29 and while there's not a ton of data the data we have suggest he would be an elite CF or very close to it. They are better hitters than Heyward will be but neither is really amazing given they are playing a corner. Additionally, I think people are missing the point here. Heyward lets you play Schwarber in the OF. Heyward was never suppose to be a bat to carry the line up. The point of him was to sure up a flimsy OF defense and provide an average bat with ok speed.

He's never been the issue with the offense because in theory the offense was supposed to run through a crazy talented infield not to mention Contreras and Schwarber. Admittedly, he's a weird fit in RF which is why I don't think he should really be there. If you stop thinking about him as a RF and instead think of him as a 99 wRC+ CF with a +10 DRS/13.5 UZR/150 over 647.2 innings in CF it's an entirely different conversation. There were 7 CF last year min 400 PAs and 500 innings in CF who had a 100 wRC+ and either greater than 0 DRS or UZR/150. They were Trout, Bader, Hicks, Mallex Smith, Pollock, Cain, and Marte. That's a pretty good list of CF.

To me that's the issue not that Heyward is some terrible bust. By playing him in RF you're then requiring another light hitting bat in the line up(presumably Almora mostly) or you're sacrificing a bit defensively with Happ. It's just a weird unnatural fit. If they aren't going to get Harper which would obviously solve this issue, I'd consider playing Bryant in RF and signing Moustakas to a 1 year deal with maybe an option. That would give you a guy who is a good defender at 3B who's hit .260/.314/.490(109 wRC+) the past 3 years who's likely to come cheap and who would leave you with a shot at Arenado next offseason. I'm sure that wouldn't thrill most fans but look at it this way, the current line up if you assume Almora is the starting CF would be swapping that 109 wRC+ for a guy who's hit .289/.326/.412(96 wRC+) the past 3 years. So you're talking roughly a 13% upgrade at likely a reasonable price and a short commitment.

That in my eyes is the difference between 2015/16 and 2017/18. It some what worked in 2015/16 because Fowler hit 109/129 wRC+ in CF. In 2017/18, Jay hit 101 wRC+ and Almora hit 103. Last year you had Almora with an 89 wRC+. Happ was sort of better hitting 106 wRC+ but obviously he had his own issues. By moving Heyward to CF where his bat is far more natural and moving in a good hitting RF you are solving a lot of the issues. Plus having Almora as a 4th OF is very handy for PH situations with double switches as well as the fact that his high contact style is typically what you want out of a bench bat. He's great in a 4th OF role

TL1961 said:

This is insanity!

They should have had an OF of Soler, Fowler and Schwarber??

Fowler on a one year deal was PERFECT.

A 4 year deal?? The guy can't play OF, and is so-so offensively. The FIRST year gone, he missed significant time. He is not a young man.

Criticize away for Darvish over Jake......but you better look at Jake's numbers before you do. Jake wanted $ 200 million, and had lost significant velocity. He had a fe good games for Philly in 2018, but by the end of the year Phillie fans were not happy with the signing, and he was clearly a #4 at best. I love Jake, and part of me wanted him to sign with the Cubs. But the GM has to be brains over heart, and Theo absolutely got that right. (And yet it is considered a gaffe!)

Darvish was underwhelming early on, but missed most of the year due to injury. But we of course criticize our GM for not seeing that.

Jesus, what does Theo have to do to get you to stop thinking he is terrible????? I think there just may be a few people in the game of baseball ho think he's pretty good.

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That statement could be said about Zo also and it didn’t stop them. Zo missed significant time and it has looked like a good signing. Saying player A is bad and player B is good when at the time both appear equal is bias. Fowler could bounce back and it improves his outlook.

Heyward was paid to post 3-4 fWAR per and has finally posted a league avg season. That deal is a shit one. He has played at Zobrist’s contract value while Zo has played at his.

Soler has been a injury case. I did say sign a corner OF. Right now it would be Almora in CF, Zo in RF Happ adding depth. No 23M per year contract to move to add Harper.

And to be honest Heyward did not add to 2016 except his rain speech. That is it. His utter tank job that year was an embarrassment