Offseason rumors/discussion thread

Omeletpants said:

How about that Schwarber's AB against lefties are embarrssing. He flails and lunges at the ball. What makes it worse is that he tries to pull the ball as it sails 6" off the plate. Whenever I see Schwaber against a lefty my first thought is "no fucking way". I think he feels the same way

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https://youtu.be/DDUk6rsSvyE

anotheridiot said:

https://youtu.be/DDUk6rsSvyE

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Big deal that was 3 years ago LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO

Speaking of Schwarber vs LHP, i noticed something i didn't know how to wrap my mind around at the time last night. He hit .262/.404/.381(123 wRC+) in 2018 vs LHP with no one on base. With runners on vs LHP he hit .176/.282/.206(34 wRC+). He was still fairly bad vs RHP with runners on at .212/.335/.457(87 wRC+) but that's approaching ok.

I'm not a swing coaches but seems like the issue is less about LHP than I originally thought and more about whatever is different with men on.

Omeletpants said:

How about that Schwarber's AB against lefties are embarrssing. He flails and lunges at the ball. What makes it worse is that he tries to pull the ball as it sails 6" off the plate. Whenever I see Schwaber against a lefty my first thought is "no fucking way". I think he feels the same way

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It's almost like there's a reason breaking balls from left-handed pitchers work against left-handed hitters...

I wonder if the same thing is true of right-handed hitters?

Cubs re-signed Danny Hultzen to a minor league deal. He's a fairly interesting guy to maybe reclaim. He's always had the talent just couldn't keep healthy but he might make for an interesting lefty in the pen.

If the cubs don't land Machado/Harper I'm sorta looking at Moustakas. Hitting .251/.315/.459 isn't going to get him a crazy deal especially after he failed to get anything good the previous year. You could move Bryant to RF and Heyward to CF. Moose would be a pretty good defender at 3B and he's a career 6.7%/15.6% bb/k guy with a lot of winning experience and from what I know of him seemingly a good club house guy.

I think he's kind of underwhelming but I also think he could be a good value signing. It would also add another lefty bat to the line up which can help.

beckdawg said:

Speaking of Schwarber vs LHP, i noticed something i didn't know how to wrap my mind around at the time last night. He hit .262/.404/.381(123 wRC+) in 2018 vs LHP with no one on base. With runners on vs LHP he hit .176/.282/.206(34 wRC+). He was still fairly bad vs RHP with runners on at .212/.335/.457(87 wRC+) but that's approaching ok.

I'm not a swing coaches but seems like the issue is less about LHP than I originally thought and more about whatever is different with men on.

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Most likely a RHP will work him inner 1/3 with the shift on. Thus forcing him into a pull hitter. With it off it becomes neutral. Lefties with the limited palet really can’t be trusted. So you might just be seeing variance in a smaller sample or he just sees lefties better when they come in to force pulls and suffer on breaking stuff away when a lefties matchup is neutral.

CSF77 said:

Most likely a RHP will work him inner 1/3 with the shift on. Thus forcing him into a pull hitter. With it off it becomes neutral. Lefties with the limited palet really can’t be trusted. So you might just be seeing variance in a smaller sample or he just sees lefties better when they come in to force pulls and suffer on breaking stuff away when a lefties matchup is neutral.

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It was over 100 PAs IIRC might have been closer to 200. So it's not just a small sample size.

beckdawg said:

It was over 100 PAs IIRC might have been closer to 200. So it's not just a small sample size.

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Fair enough.

So it might hold the same. He turns on lefties better but a sucker for a dirtball.

When the splits are diverse as that the shift is a factor. Even if he strikes out if he has it in his head it becomes a distraction.

Honestly I think he needs to use Zen. Block out everything but him and the pitcher and take it 1 pitch at a time. By doing that he will be aware of a pattern of attack and can counter his approach.

The whole D shift is beatable. The biggest obstacle is himself.

CSF77 said:

When the splits are diverse as that the shift is a factor

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That's why I find Schwarber so interesting statistically though because generally speaking you'd expect the shift to hurt him and it seems like it's the other way around. Teams probably aren't shifting vs him with runners on. And indeed statcast shows that his wOBA vs the shift is .380 and it's .278 with no shift. Statcast was the only place i've seen that tracks numbers with the shift so unfortunately I can't really get a good set of data for various other numbers with it. I could probably do it if I really cared by looking through the full play logs for Schwarber but its probably more work than it's worth.

Omeletpants said:

Big deal that was 3 years ago LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO

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Post clips from this year.

His results weren't good, but your description is a huge exaggeration.

Why don't we have our lefties throw him 5000 pitches this offseason?

That's only about 500 each.

Team needs a lead off more than a LH slugger. Ideally you would want CF or 2B to be utilized that way but as far as the market is concerned the best guy is a left fielder. The best CF put up a .316 OBA.

So that is where we are at right now. Do they trade?
Do they go balls and get Harper and push Rizzo there.

I really believe the loss of Fowler was really never replaced. Almora was never that guy. They have a few guys that have done well there but 1 you lose a impact bat in the middle. 2nd was a fine rent. Not a smart long term.

Now if Schwarber had a complete game and could be that hitting force then it would open up Rizzo for lead off.

I’ll be honest here. 2016 was successful because the top was static. We saw Fowler/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist/Russell because it produced.

They need that dynamic again.

CSF77 said:

Team needs a lead off more than a LH slugger.

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I think this is a fan narrative more than actual fact. Do you know what the cubs #1 hitter hit in 2018? .302/.366/.454. That breaks down to 213 PAs from Almora(.333/.368/.429), 140 from Zobrist(.285/.371/.439), 138 from Rizzo(.328/.428/.552), 131 from Murphy(.312/.336/.504), 61 from Happ(.222/.311/.370), 31 from Bryant(.321/.387/.464), and then you had a handful of guys all below 20 PAs.

I think there's a valid question to be had on whether or not a committee approach is the right way to go about it. You could argue that just having a guy like Fowler you pencil in is better. But that assumes joe would actually set a line up in stone and I'm not sure he would. He loves moving guys who are struggling into the lead off spot for whatever reason. I'm not necessarily saying that's "right" but ultimately you have to build a team for the guy managing it not make him manage the team you build.

I also think in particular the line from Almora is super interesting. He was .248/.287/.337(67 wRC+) in every other position in the line up and he also walked at a lower rate. His wRC+ batting first was 117. Even RHP which is supposed to be his Achilles heel he hit .352/.387/.461(131 wRC+) when batting first over 138 PAs.

You know we talk a lot about Maddon... but having dug into the stats I honestly wonder if his biggest failing is how he orders the line up. Consider this

#1 RH Almora .333/.368/.429 117 wRC+ 213 PAs 2018
#2 LH Schwarber .231/.344/.512 131 wRC+ in 352 career PAs
#3 RH Bryant .257/.361/.497 129 wRC+ in 909 career PAs
#4 LH Rizzo .279/.379/.525 139 wRC+ in 1103 career PAs
#5 SH Zobrist .287/.387/.482 137 wRC+ in 864 career PAs

You'd obviously have Baez, Heyward and Contreras left in some form likely in that order. My initial thought was you probably would want Baez higher than 6th but his best spot in the line up has been #3/4 and he hasn't been particularly impressive #1/2. I suppose you could argue for him at 5 with Zobrist 6, Heyward 7 and Contreras 8 and keep with the RH/LH...etc mix. Regardless, my point here is if you put these guys in the line up where they succeed those are some rather monster numbers. And frankly other than Schwarber being a little weird batting 2nd that would be a pretty normal lineup. And I don't even think Schwarber is that odd batting second given his OBP. It's clearly his best spot in the order statistically. He's not over 120 wRC+ anywhere else.

But getting back to Almora for a second, do you know how many times after a scorching 1st half he batted #1 in the second half of the season? 32 PAs in 9 games. He still hit .300/.344/.300. For some reason Joe decided it was a good idea to give Rizzo 119 PAs batting lead off in the 2nd half. Granted Rizzo killed it hitting .310/.420/.510 but perhaps ya know.... bat that guy 3rd on a team that can't manage to score runs... Murphy had the other large chunk with 131 PAs which I think is fine. But, when we talk about guys struggling in the 2nd half I can't help but wonder if joe fucking with the line up is the cause.

Apr: Ranked #14 in runs scored
May: Ranked #2 (Almora .338/.390/.459) Bryant led team with 19
June: #8 pretty balanced line up here. Almora and Heyward 1-2 combo. Before Rizzo's heat up. Bryant cold.
July: #12 Bryant out. Almora gone cold. Rizzo only 9 runs but picking up here.
Aug: #22 Bryant out. Rizzo carrying the team with Baez
Sept: #17 Bryant back but Almora non existent. 5 runs.

But targeting May it was Bryzzo for the most part. Almora on his hot streak. Baez wasn't even hot at this point. You could say it was Almora/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist carrying the load.

Over all it really comes down to Brizzo being healthy and productive. They are the 2 most complete hitters on the team. The rest have tendencies. It was Baez's year but with his approach he could just suck next year. Zo could get old etc. They do need at least 1 stable factor going in next year. I just don't see them investing 30 mil into it.

But, when we talk about guys struggling in the 2nd half I can't help but wonder if joe fucking with the line up is the cause.

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Joe needs to stay more static IMO. The whole bat a guy lead off to get him started is fucking tired. How about getting a stable lead off and let these guys work through slumps vs playing games. Stick to the clown shows, magic acts and pajama party to break the tension.

CSF77 said:

Apr: Ranked #14 in runs scored
May: Ranked #2 (Almora .338/.390/.459) Bryant led team with 19
June: #8 pretty balanced line up here. Almora and Heyward 1-2 combo. Before Rizzo's heat up. Bryant cold.
July: #12 Bryant out. Almora gone cold. Rizzo only 9 runs but picking up here.
Aug: #22 Bryant out. Rizzo carrying the team with Baez
Sept: #17 Bryant back but Almora non existent. 5 runs.

But targeting May it was Bryzzo for the most part. Almora on his hot streak. Baez wasn't even hot at this point. You could say it was Almora/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist carrying the load.

Over all it really comes down to Brizzo being healthy and productive. They are the 2 most complete hitters on the team. The rest have tendencies. It was Baez's year but with his approach he could just suck next year. Zo could get old etc. They do need at least 1 stable factor going in next year. I just don't see them investing 30 mil into it.

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I'd encourage you to look at the game logs re: almora. From 6-24 through the end of the first half(7-13) he batted lead off in all but 3 games when he wasn't a PH. The other 3 times he batted second twice and 9th once. And over that period he hit .328/.344/.475(119 wRC+). So what's Maddon do after the all star break?

7-19 doesn't start
7-20 hit 7th
7-21 doesn't start
7-21 game 2 hit 7th
7-22 doesn't start
7-23 hit 3rd
7-24 hit 2nd
7-25 hit 2nd
7-26 hit 2nd
7-27 hit 2nd
7-28 hit 2nd
7-29 doesn't start
7-31 hit 5th
8-01 hit 8th
8-02 hit 2nd
8-03 doesn't start
8-04 doesn't start
8-05 finally hits 1st
8-06 hit 9th
8-07 hit 3rd
8-08 doesn't start
8-10 hit 6th
8-11 hit 9th
8-12 hit 5th
8-14 doesn't start

In 12 of the 17 games prior to the break where he hit that well he batted first. After the all star break it took 18 games before joe finally gave him another crack batting lead off. And he performed well when leading off in the second half joe just never let him do it in the same manner. IMO that's what went wrong with Almora. For whatever reason, Maddon started cutting his playing time at the all star break. He went from 83, 82, 96 PAs in April, May and June to 76 july(37 in 10 games pre break and 39 in 13 games aver the break), 73 in Aug, and 69 in Sept.

I don't remember Almora being hurt. I'd be lying if I said I remember the exact circumstances of each game but you had a guy who had hit .319/.357/.438 in the first half and who plays great defense in CF and was a pretty good lead off hitter and suddenly you're batting him all over the line up and cutting his playing time? I mean I get that a team is more than one player but that seems to me a case of a manager screwing with a player. And while I get that in theory if you're a good hitter it doesn't matter where you hit, Almora is going to see better pitches hitting in front of Bryant or whoever bats 2nd.

I'm just sitting here wondering if the issue the cubs have with their offense disappearing is the fact that hitters are routine guys. And if your manager doesn't follow a routine when putting people into the line up it can screw with hitters. I think to an extent that can be helpful for slumping players but I think the opposite may also be true.

I’m a proponent of a static line up. Too much chaos is a detriment

beckdawg said:

I don't remember Almora being hurt. I'd be lying if I said I remember the exact circumstances of each game but you had a guy who had hit .319/.357/.438 in the first half and who plays great defense in CF and was a pretty good lead off hitter and suddenly you're batting him all over the line up and cutting his playing time? I mean I get that a team is more than one player but that seems to me a case of a manager screwing with a player. And while I get that in theory if you're a good hitter it doesn't matter where you hit, Almora is going to see better pitches hitting in front of Bryant or whoever bats 2nd.

I'm just sitting here wondering if the issue the cubs have with their offense disappearing is the fact that hitters are routine guys. And if your manager doesn't follow a routine when putting people into the line up it can screw with hitters. I think to an extent that can be helpful for slumping players but I think the opposite may also be true.

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He was out with precautionary after running into a wall, and then was out with some stomach virus for a few games.

I did not quote the rest of it, but its the pinhead pinella mindset of the manager taking credit for putting the player in the best place to perform.

Joe was never going to play Almora everyday, no matter how good he was doing, so thats an excuse for not letting him lead off.

There are three guys on this team that deserve to lead off.

First and foremost is Javy Baez. For some reason, he is only allowed to lead off in All star games and world baseball classics. The excuse for an MVP candidate not being an every day player holds no water here.

Albert Almora, speed, tenacity, smart. We do remember that a key play to the game 7 win was Almora tagging up from first on a fly out, right?

Willson Contrares. Next to fastest guy on the team until Gore arrived.

What is the main similarity in all these guys. Fire, tenacity, energy. But instead, Zobrist, Rizzo, Murphy, arguably the main clogs on base pads.

That was the main lineup deal I saw most of the year, the guys who should be on base creating havoc were in the middle of the order and the guys that should be power guys were slumping so joe gets them going.

For all the people saying we need Murphy back so we can have a leadoff hitter, murphy never hit leadoff in his career before getting here.

Everyone wants to sign players without utilizing what we have and seeing what we are missing next.

anotheridiot said:

First and foremost is Javy Baez.

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Baez is a terrible option IMO. The type of batter you want for a lead off hitter is someone with a good OBP. Even in an MVP caliber year Baez's OBP was .326. League average for non-pitchers is .323. So, when I say he's not a good OBP I mean it. More to the point, Baez doesn't see pitches. He was really low in pitches per plate appearance. You typically want guys at the top of the order high in those numbers as it gets to a teams bullpen faster. When Baez has hit lead off in his career he's hit .302/.311/.558. that's only 46 PAs but it's not a particularly well suited triple slash for a lead off hitter. The power is nice but you don't really want power out of your lead off hitter. You want power behind guys who get on base. The batting average is nice but because he so rarely walks it isn't really doing all that much good because he's still well below average at getting on base.

IMO Baez should be batting 4th or 5th on a typical team and possibly 6th on a really good offensive team. I've said this before but the way I view hitters like him is you put them as the last big bat behind your OBP guys. I don't think you want him particularly high like the 2 or 3 hole because his OBP limits the damage the guys behind him can do. The ideal scenario for him is a bunch of guys get on and he's up with a chance to either homer or put the ball into play though I would caveat that by saying given his K rate that's why I'd make him the last of your big sluggers hence talking about him hitting 5th/6th.

As a contrast example here, take Schwarber. Schwarber also has a high k rate. But he has the 6th best walk rate in baseball and because of that has a much better OBP. Unlike Baez who largely used a high batting average to inflate his low walk rate in terms of OBP, Schwarber has been the opposite. He doesn't hit well for average thus far but because he walks he's still good at getting on base. Guys like Schwarber IMO should be in front of RBI guys who are higher average where as guys like Baez should be after guys like Schwarber because they can get hits to drive people in.