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Thread: Cubs heavy favorites to land Bryce Harper according to odds

  1. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Ya Schwarber’s rook season was pretty epic
    Schwarber isn't asking for $400 mil. Plus I think the likelihood that he improves is every bit as good as the chance Harper has. Schwarber was a 3.2 WAR, Harper was 3.5.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Saw an article about Schwarber and Happ may be the guys on the move..

    Gonzalez
    Because it makes sense. Schwarber has great trade value. Still, they only trade him in the right deal. Happ and Almora are 4th OF. You can only keep one and I keep Almora.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TC in Mississippi View Post
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    Because it makes sense. Schwarber has great trade value. Still, they only trade him in the right deal. Happ and Almora are 4th OF. You can only keep one and I keep Almora.
    Agree here. Happ is hot garbage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kapooncha View Post
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    Agree here. Happ is hot garbage.
    I think he had the 5th highest OBP on the team
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  5. #27
    All-Star CSF77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TC in Mississippi View Post
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    Schwarber isn't asking for $400 mil. Plus I think the likelihood that he improves is every bit as good as the chance Harper has. Schwarber was a 3.2 WAR, Harper was 3.5.
    Schwarber is entering Arb1 this year. Has accumulated 6.6 WAR in 1274 PA
    Harper in 2014 had 1489 PA's. About as close as I can get here. 10.1 WAR. 200 PA is not going to make that up...

    That was before Harper's 9.3 MVP season.

    So to point further

    Rookie year: Harper 4.4 Schwarber: 1.9
    Sophmore: Harper 4.1 Schwarber: -.1 (injury)
    Junior: Harper: 1.6(injury) Schwarber: 1.6 (Demotion)
    pass.................................Schwarber: 3.2

    So honestly this is really not the same thing going on at all. Chucky had a good season for once. Haper came out as a 4 WAR guy. If you want to comp Bryant and Harper then that is a interesting debate because both are that quality.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Omeletpants View Post
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    I think he had the 5th highest OBP on the team

  7. #29
    All-Star CSF77's Avatar
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    Fangraphs write up.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle...hought-he-was/

    Basically the numbers are favoring a platoon split. 77 wRC+ against lefties, 122 wRC+ against righties at Aug. It hasn't been enough opportunities to get a larger sample. But that maybe because they don't want to use him that way and get better production with others.

  8. #30
    All-Star CSF77's Avatar
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    Happ has put up 3.3 WAR in 875 PA About the highest year that you will see is 750 PA as a everyday lead off. So saying that he is a everyday lead off at 750 PA that extrapolates to 2.85 WAR. Basically solid starting player if playing everyday.

    He is a option as a lead off going forward but he needs to be more aggressive at the plate.

    2017: 9.4% BB
    2018: 15.2% BB

    But SO
    2017: 31.2%
    2017: 36.1%

    BA:
    2017: .253
    2018: .233

    ISO
    2017: .261
    2018: .176

    BABIP:
    2017: .316
    2018: .362

    So he was more lucky but waited more which caused him to put the ball in play less and caused his power to dip. But he still dropped .020 even with a .046 increase in luck.

    Honestly I wouldn't trust him in a vital role until he finds balance. Right now he is a work in progress.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Happ has put up 3.3 WAR in 875 PA About the highest year that you will see is 750 PA as a everyday lead off. So saying that he is a everyday lead off at 750 PA that extrapolates to 2.85 WAR. Basically solid starting player if playing everyday.

    He is a option as a lead off going forward but he needs to be more aggressive at the plate.

    2017: 9.4% BB
    2018: 15.2% BB

    But SO
    2017: 31.2%
    2017: 36.1%

    BA:
    2017: .253
    2018: .233

    ISO
    2017: .261
    2018: .176

    BABIP:
    2017: .316
    2018: .362

    So he was more lucky but waited more which caused him to put the ball in play less and caused his power to dip. But he still dropped .020 even with a .046 increase in luck.

    Honestly I wouldn't trust him in a vital role until he finds balance. Right now he is a work in progress.
    So how does Javy compare with that with his improvements?

    I believe if Happ goes, its the writing on the wall for Joe. Joe keeps his buddies around him.
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    unexplained bear fanatic truthbedamned's Avatar
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    Jesus Christ....I love the Cubs....I follow the Cubs......but when Bernstein starts talking out WAR and BOA and DPOZ and ROY and this adjustment and when he swings from down under versus trajectory and MENBA I just fucking cringe. When did baseball turn into a fucking stat? Do you have a stat for how many homers Bryant hit after Rizzo farted at first base? And how many times did Lester strike out the side after Baez scratched his left nut? Why is there a trajectory comparison? Holy fuck people...this is baseball. Throw pitch...hit pitch. My team better than your team

    Baseball has turned into nothing but a bunch of fuckying acronyms that the normal human has no fucking idea what they are talking about.

    My wet dream is someone shoving a fist in Bernstein's mouth when he goes of one of these ridiculous fucking stat rampages he does.

    Same goes for here. Speak fucking english please.

    Thanks...Have a great night. Rant over

  11. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by truthbedamned View Post
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    When did baseball turn into a fucking stat?
    You realize baseball has been about stats for 100 years right? Batting average is a stat. RBI's are a stat. Home runs are a stat. I don't get why some people are so scared of new stats. It's just a new way to understand the game. But at it's core it's doing the same thing batting average RBI's and HR have been doing for a century.... trying to put value on players.

  12. #34
    CBMB refugee wklink's Avatar
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    I guess this will indicate how serious the Cubs really are if they want to win another WS.

    Bringing Harper in will put butts in the seats but I don't think it will translate into another World Series. This team needs more guys that get on base, not less. Power isn't the problem, consistent hitting is. We lost too many games because we couldn't get a run across when we should have. Harper, for all of his power and talent, would be another free swinger on a team of free swingers.

    I just don't see it helping this club in getting over that hump again. I could be wrong, he could hit .300 next year but that is a lot of money that could be spent on pitching talent and on hitters that get on base.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wklink View Post
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    I guess this will indicate how serious the Cubs really are if they want to win another WS.

    Bringing Harper in will put butts in the seats but I don't think it will translate into another World Series. This team needs more guys that get on base, not less. Power isn't the problem, consistent hitting is. We lost too many games because we couldn't get a run across when we should have. Harper, for all of his power and talent, would be another free swinger on a team of free swingers.

    I just don't see it helping this club in getting over that hump again. I could be wrong, he could hit .300 next year but that is a lot of money that could be spent on pitching talent and on hitters that get on base.
    I’m not on the Harper train, for a lot of reasons, but what does this mean “this team needs more guys that get on base, not less” ? You realize that Harper had the 4th best OBP in the NL and 9th best in baseball at .393? That’s literally elite level of getting on base? In fact if you signed him this would be the reason why, while of course hoping for the big numbers to come back (which they did in the second half), because his floor is an elite OBP guy with power and he’s 26.

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    Quote Originally Posted by beckdawg View Post
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    You realize baseball has been about stats for 100 years right? Batting average is a stat. RBI's are a stat. Home runs are a stat. I don't get why some people are so scared of new stats. It's just a new way to understand the game. But at it's core it's doing the same thing batting average RBI's and HR have been doing for a century.... trying to put value on players.
    I think you are both right on this one.

    Baseball and stats are quite the marriage. I remember as a wee little one always looking at those data points on the back of baseball cards and using it to figure out who the good players were.

    And I love stats. Set the damn class grading curve in both college stat classes.

    But I have learned that using stats to predict future human behavior is quite the risk. Use it on dice, cards, machines, physics, etc and it is really reliably predictive. Humans, to an extent, but not so much. I can give you several examples of stat.folks that proved on paper how to save a company and make it prosper, only to watch it go bankrupt. Marketing folks are quite the subset in a company....but I digress.

    It is frustrating for people that use what they are actually seeing to base a projection to converse with someone who only looks at historical data points to derive conclusions. Humans do change. Not always or to an extreme degree as the non stat person may project sometimes, but they do. Physical and mental abilities can and do change. And it can be over any period of time. As fans, we rarely know what is going on mentally with an athlete day to day. Are they in a good spot, bad spot....we rarely know.
    Historical stats canít know this either. Stats also donít know how to provide predictive accuracy when guys are playing injured vs felling like Superman. Or whether a player has changed a technique recently.
    Stats on humans can be a great help, but you better be careful as they can set you up for failure as well. You have to be cognizant of changes in human behavior and capabilities.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PickSix View Post
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    I think you are both right on this one.

    Baseball and stats are quite the marriage. I remember as a wee little one always looking at those data points on the back of baseball cards and using it to figure out who the good players were.

    And I love stats. Set the damn class grading curve in both college stat classes.

    But I have learned that using stats to predict future human behavior is quite the risk. Use it on dice, cards, machines, physics, etc and it is really reliably predictive. Humans, to an extent, but not so much. I can give you several examples of stat.folks that proved on paper how to save a company and make it prosper, only to watch it go bankrupt. Marketing folks are quite the subset in a company....but I digress.

    It is frustrating for people that use what they are actually seeing to base a projection to converse with someone who only looks at historical data points to derive conclusions. Humans do change. Not always or to an extreme degree as the non stat person may project sometimes, but they do. Physical and mental abilities can and do change. And it can be over any period of time. As fans, we rarely know what is going on mentally with an athlete day to day. Are they in a good spot, bad spot....we rarely know.
    Historical stats can’t know this either. Stats also don’t know how to provide predictive accuracy when guys are playing injured vs felling like Superman. Or whether a player has changed a technique recently.
    Stats on humans can be a great help, but you better be careful as they can set you up for failure as well. You have to be cognizant of changes in human behavior and capabilities.
    I don't really agree with your second point. I mean sure data isn't guarantee of anything. But what's the alternative? Having "gut" opinions on shit? One thing I can guarantee you is that has a worse win loss record than statistical projections.

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    LOL @ people still arguing against the relevance of stats in baseball. The past two decades have been dominated by the teams with successful analytics-heavy approaches. They were the ones who were able to better assess current performance and project future production, and it gave them a tremendous edge in decision-making. There isn't a single front office that doesn't have an advanced analytics department running their own proprietary models these days. Every year guys from Fangraphs get poached by front offices, and good luck getting a job in any FO without a stats/programming degree.

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  17. #39
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    I just choose to call them anal-itics.
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    I am a computer scientist in the finance field and had to do a project on stats in baseball before graduating, to try to find a new stat that found a new probability. Statistics are just measuring probabilities, that is it. And if you love the sport on a physics level and probability level for all its minutia, the statistics part makes dorks like me incredibly excited

    It isn't meant to predict what will happen in the next at bat it is used to put your players in the best position to succeed in each at bat, for each pitch, and in the right spot in the field. Over the course of a 162 game season this will be a net benefit to the team.

    BTW, the stat I created was used to measure where each person should hit in the batting order. Eventually when I have time I will make my own site that scrapes data from other sites and has real time updates on this stat for all of baseball. The stat is somewhat aa combination of .OPS and WRC, but used to determine who should bat when people are on base.

    People who hate stats are just generally showing their insecurities in their inability/laziness to understanding them.

  19. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP Hochbaum View Post
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    I am a computer scientist in the finance field and had to do a project on stats in baseball before graduating, to try to find a new stat that found a new probability. Statistics are just measuring probabilities, that is it. And if you love the sport on a physics level and probability level for all its minutia, the statistics part makes dorks like me incredibly excited

    It isn't meant to predict what will happen in the next at bat it is used to put your players in the best position to succeed in each at bat, for each pitch, and in the right spot in the field. Over the course of a 162 game season this will be a net benefit to the team.

    BTW, the stat I created was used to measure where each person should hit in the batting order. Eventually when I have time I will make my own site that scrapes data from other sites and has real time updates on this stat for all of baseball. The stat is somewhat aa combination of .OPS and WRC, but used to determine who should bat when people are on base.

    People who hate stats are just generally showing their insecurities in their inability/laziness to understanding them.

    Exactly right and it's really simple to relate to probabilities if you try. For instance if the weather forecast shows a 80% probability for rain you probably cancel a big outdoor event or move it inside. That doesn't mean that you won't be sitting inside complaining that the sun is shining and the event would have been better outdoors. In talking aobut what the Brewers are doing the probability of them dong what they just did, winning 12 in a row including winning overtaking the Cubs, winning a one game playoff, winning the NLCS and winning the first game of the NLCS was very slim. The fact that they did it anyway did not invalidate the statistics that showed those odds were slim anymore than the decision to move the outdoor event indoors based on an 80% chance of rain invalidates weather forecasting. When you use numbers to foresee outcomes you are projecting while if you just pick, say a winner of a playoff game in the absence of numbers, you are predicting there is a huge difference. Also, going back to the weather forecasting example, if the models for projecting the weather are consistently wrong, the models will be reexamined. In baseball if the numbers show that a hitter can't hit to the opposite field, and you employ the shift to exploit that, and yet the hitter starts to do what you weren't projecting than obviously those numbers change as well. None of this is hard. If you say there's an 89% chance that Houston wins the ALCS if they win tonight and then Boston wins four in a row that also doesn't invalidate the numbers used to project that outcome.

  20. #42
    Hall of Famer Ari Bear's Avatar
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    He basically said, Nah to the Nats 10yr 300mil offer today. He is definetly looking to test the market. This bidding war should be interesting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ari Bear View Post
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    He basically said, Nah to the Nats 10yr 300mil offer today. He is definetly looking to test the market. This bidding war should be interesting.
    Or he just dont want to play for the Nats anymore...

    I think he has his mind set on a team or teams, just a matter of coming to an agreement on a contract

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    I'm hearing Cards may be involved. Man I'm gonna be so pissed if Harper plays in StL. I don't think its going to happen but I'll be pissed.

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