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Thread: Cubs heavy favorites to land Bryce Harper according to odds

  1. #45
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    Cards have reached the point where they need to make a big move to appease the fans, who are getting plenty impatient.

    They were second (allegedly) on Heyward, and on David Price. They missed on Stanton, and Osuna was a train wreck for the first half of the season. They scored a coup, they thought, getting Holland late in the FA period last year.

    Meanwhile they are three seasons without a playoff appearance and four without a playoff series win, and they need to do something.

    There are plenty of rumors at early in FA that seem to have every team interested in every player, but so far the Cards are rumored to be interested in Kimbrel and I think Harper and Machado fit their needs well. I just don't know that they'll go that big. They may pull another "we tried", but the fans are getting tired of that. It will not shock me if they go big. But I still expect Harper to land elsewhere.

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    Harper going to be a Cub or Angels

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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Harper going to be a Cub or Angels
    Both teams are tight on budget. Doubtful.

    I would list legit suitors as: (to both)

    Philadelphia
    CWS Jerry broke the 10M barrier so breaking 400M? He has been in that light before.
    SDP can absorb 300M
    Atlanta makes sense. I’ll say maybe here

    The big players: BOSOX/ NYY have little need for either.

    LAD really don’t need Harper. If they feel Muncy was a fluke and move the pieces around maybe but they don’t need to invest 400M to make it work.

    There maybe others out there that make sense but with a 400M dime I’m thinking that Philly is getting 1 and the White Sox is the fav for the other. Harper and Bryant can be besties then. And rivals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Both teams are tight on budget. Doubtful.

    I would list legit suitors as: (to both)

    Philadelphia
    CWS Jerry broke the 10M barrier so breaking 400M? He has been in that light before.
    SDP can absorb 300M
    Atlanta makes sense. Iíll say maybe here

    The big players: BOSOX/ NYY have little need for either.

    LAD really donít need Harper. If they feel Muncy was a fluke and move the pieces around maybe but they donít need to invest 400M to make it work.

    There maybe others out there that make sense but with a 400M dime Iím thinking that Philly is getting 1 and the White Sox is the fav for the other. Harper and Bryant can be besties then. And rivals.
    Angels are not tight on budget, especially after 2019

    I just think if it not the cubs he would prefer to go West and i can see the Angels pitching him playing along side Trout

  5. #49
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    The Angels will focus on pitching this winter, as they look to get back into contention under the leadership of new manager Brad Ausmus.

    Guaranteed Contracts

    Justin Upton, LF: $90MM through 2022
    Albert Pujols, 1B/DH: $87MM through 2021
    Mike Trout, CF: $66.5MM through 2020
    Andrelton Simmons, SS: $28MM through 2020
    Zack Cozart, IF: $25.333MM through 2020
    Kole Calhoun, RF: $11.5MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2020)
    Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

    Matt Shoemaker – $4.3MM
    Tyler Skaggs – $3.6MM
    Blake Parker – $3.1MM
    Andrew Heaney – $2.8MM
    JC Ramirez – $1.9MM
    Jose Alvarez – $1.7MM
    Cam Bedrosian – $1.7MM
    Nick Tropeano – $1.6MM
    Hansel Robles – $1.4MM
    Odrisamer Despaigne – $1.3MM
    Jefry Marte – $1.1MM
    Non-tender candidates: Despaigne, Marte, Ramirez
    Free Agents

    Garrett Richards, Jim Johnson, Chris Young, Eric Young Jr., Junichi Tazawa, Blake Wood
    [Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information]

    Turning back to the roster, Trout is coming off yet another superlative season, hitting .312/.460/.628 with 39 homers over 608 PA and contributing 9.8 fWAR to the Angels’ cumulative 24.4 fWAR for position players. Of the club’s returning players, Andrelton Simmons (5.5 fWAR), Justin Upton (3.1 fWAR), Shohei Ohtani (2.8 fWAR only as a DH), and rookie David Fletcher (1.9 fWAR) combined with Trout for 23.1 fWAR, giving you some idea of how top-heavy the production was within the Angels’ lineup. The team didn’t receive much from the catcher position (Martin Maldonado was traded to the Astros in July), and Kole Calhoun, Zack Cozart, and Albert Pujols were all replacement-level or worse in 2018.

    There likely won’t be much change to the position player core, as the outfield will again comprise of Upton, Trout, and Calhoun, with the Halos hoping that Calhoun can build on a much-improved second half. Simmons will again be the infield’s cornerstone at shortstop, while Fletcher and Cozart will handle second and third base, though it isn’t yet clear who will handle either position. Fletcher’s emergence was a nice positive, and it gives the team flexibility in deciding the best spot for Cozart over the last two years of his contract. Cozart’s first year in Anaheim came to premature end in June due to shoulder surgery, and the veteran infielder is hoping for better health to rebound from this lost season.

    After undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month, Ohtani almost certainly won’t pitch for the Angels in 2019, though he will still be able to contribute at a designated hitter for the bulk of the season. Depending on his rehab, Ohtani may not necessarily be ready for Opening Day, and the team might choose to not play Ohtani every day when he does return from the DL for the sake of his long-term conditioning. At this point, the plans have yet to take shape.

    Even if Ohtani doesn’t receive many more than the 367 plate appearances he received in 2018, however, he still projects to be a huge part of the L.A. lineup. Among players with at least 350 PA last season, Ohtani’s 152 wRC+ ranked eighth in all of baseball. That was despite some rather drastic splits (1.043 OPS against right-handed pitching, .654 OPS against left-handed pitching) and, of course, the wholly unique factor that Ohtani spent half his time as a pitcher.

    The Angels are likely to give Albert Pujols some DH time when facing a left-handed starter, as the veteran slugger can’t be an everyday option at first base given his history of injuries (including knee and elbow procedures this season). After his second consecutive negative-fWAR season, there’s little evidence to suggest that Pujols should still get any sort of regular action, and a case could be made that the Angels would be better off eating Pujols’ remaining $87MM in salary rather than continue to use a roster spot on such a limited player.

    Until we get hints that the Angels are considering a release, however, Pujols will continue to be penciled in for a timeshare at first base and DH. Owner Arte Moreno recently stated that the club’s offseason to-do list includes “a left-handed bat with some power to play first base,” though such a player would be used “just to fill in.” Free agents like Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, or Logan Morrison could fit this description if Los Angeles truly is looking for just part-time help

  6. #50
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    So pitching. LH part time 1B bat to push Pujos to DH more. And wait for Otanhi to DH again.

    Nothing to see here unless they call on Montgomery or Chatwood as they need pitching.

    A minor trade would be Cartiani as they need catching and a 1B option. Which he does. So a pack up deal of him and Chatwood would be feasible under the right scenerio for both teams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Harper going to be a Cub or Angels
    Angels can have him
    "America was founded on liberty and independence -- not government coercion, domination and control. We are born free, and we will stay free." President Trump 2-5-19

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    I am a Harper to the Cubs advocate. I would hope that any contract he gets has lots of bonuses for games played to protect against the fact that Harper is as likely to play fewer than 120 games as he is more than 140.

    There was a lesson to be learned from the past WS. One of the complaints about Roberts was that he "played the numbers" instead of just putting his best 8/9 hitters out there. Harper would be one more bat Maddon couldn't justifiably platoon. Depnding on the 12 teams on Heyward list this season, I could see a possible trade with the Angels. I could see/hope a trade of Heyward, Cartini, Chatwood, and Quintana for Kole Calhoun and maybe Justin Anderson. LA gets upgrades in RF, C/1B, and one good starter along with another inning guy and the Cubs get payroll relief, which is their primary concern. Even if the Cubs have to pick up 10M a year for the remainder of Heyward's contract, that's 35M is relief this season and 25M next.

    Worst thing the Angels say is no.

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    Well Boras didn’t show his hand but said 300M not close enough and players like Brice play to 40.

    So 14/400M is a thing now.

    I’m holding to Philly getting 1 of the 2 and the black sox as the other.

  11. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Well Boras didnít show his hand but said 300M not close enough and players like Brice play to 40.

    So 14/400M is a thing now.

    Iím holding to Philly getting 1 of the 2 and the black sox as the other.
    Im going with 10/350 max as an offer from a team

  12. #56
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    35M per? I can see that with Bryant. More stable shorter span due to age.

    The 14 year thing is fine. As long as the AAV of 28M is front loaded.

    To get a 14 year the AAV has to be lower to give a comfort factor of being paid til 40. But I would protect myself with 4x40 so at 30 he owed 240 or 24M AAV. even then I could hit 4x30 after to kill 1/2 of it leaving 6 years 120M from 34-40. Or 20M AAV. Which is fair market then.

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    One article I read insists that the Phillies are the favorite to sign Harper and another thinks Harper will sign with either the Dodgers or Yankees, since both are contenders and are in bigger metro areas than Chicago with tons of endorsement chances.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    35M per? I can see that with Bryant. More stable shorter span due to age.

    The 14 year thing is fine. As long as the AAV of 28M is front loaded.

    To get a 14 year the AAV has to be lower to give a comfort factor of being paid til 40. But I would protect myself with 4x40 so at 30 he owed 240 or 24M AAV. even then I could hit 4x30 after to kill 1/2 of it leaving 6 years 120M from 34-40. Or 20M AAV. Which is fair market then.
    Nobody offering 14 years and id find it hard to imagine hed want 14 years being 26 unless he had options for half those years, have to think hed want another crack at FA .

    Plus

    I dont see a team risking 7 yr pass 33 paying all that money

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    The Yankees are always unpredictable because they may want to respond to Boston winning the Series. I'd be more worried about the Angels than Dodgers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Nobody offering 14 years and id find it hard to imagine hed want 14 years being 26 unless he had options for half those years, have to think hed want another crack at FA .

    Plus

    I dont see a team risking 7 yr pass 33 paying all that money
    Bad teams will do bad things. Ref: Rangers and ARod/Miami/Stanton. Don’t doubt the ineptitude of the rich.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Bad teams will do bad things. Ref: Rangers and ARod/Miami/Stanton. Donít doubt the ineptitude of the rich.
    Doubt he signs with a bad team

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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    Nobody offering 14 years and id find it hard to imagine hed want 14 years being 26 unless he had options for half those years, have to think hed want another crack at FA .

    Plus

    I dont see a team risking 7 yr pass 33 paying all that money

    I think he will want and get a 14 yr deal, probably with opt outs after years 3, 4, and 6. Depending on how the payments are set, even the signing team will be hoping he opts out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Bad teams will do bad things. Ref: Rangers and ARod/Miami/Stanton. Don’t doubt the ineptitude of the rich.
    Miami made the Stanton deal to make the team worth more money. They had to build it up to sell it, so they could watch the new owners tear it down.

    Now, if one of those teams, like Tampa, Miami or some other team not drawing fans end up telling Harper they are trying to move to Vegas, that changes everything.
    109 years since the last back to back world titles

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    Some eyebrows raised this evening when it was observed that the White Sox had unveiled a stage set at Chicago’s United Center featuring Bryce Harper‘s name. As Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports explains, there’s no reason to think this was the beginning of the roll-out of a signing; our readers from the south side can safely inform friends and neighbors that there’s nothing imminent. More likely, it’s part of a recruiting pitch for the popular young free agent, who is in Chicago today. The news shouldn’t be blown out of proportion, clearly, but that doesn’t mean it’s of no consequence. Evidently, the White Sox are serious enough pursuers that they have secured an in-person visit and are putting resources into a pitch. That certainly dovetails with recent reports and public statements from the organization indicating that the club is looking to spend. It also bodes well for Harper’s market that a team such as the White Sox is making a run at him even after he reportedly turned down a $300MM offer to remain in D.C.
    As for the cross-town Cubs, all indications remain that they do not see themselves as a contender for Harper’s services, as ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers reiterates on Twitter. As Rogers puts it, if the club is “playing possum,” it’s “doing a heck of a job” at selling the act.

  21. #65
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    Calling it now. Harper goes to sox for 400M+.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Calling it now. Harper goes to sox for 400M+.
    20 years/$400m

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