Warden of the Northeast
THE WALL
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1. Chicago Bears (3-1)
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 18.3 percent
Current FPI playoff chances: 73.8 percent
Difference: 55.5 percent
To some extent, the Bears are in the eye of the beholder. They could very well be 4-0 if not for that capitulation in Week 1 against the Packers, which was in part self-inflicted by some bad playcalling from Matt Nagy and a dropped interception by Kyle Fuller late in the fourth quarter. They're also two plays from going 1-3 if the Seahawks don't drop a potential pick-six in Week 2 and Josh Rosen completes a pass to get in field goal range on fourth-and-5 in Week 3. They've faced backup quarterbacks for meaningful stretches of play in three of their first four games, but their defense was responsible for knocking each of those starters out of the game via injury or benching.
As I wrote about last week, though, this defense is excellent. The Bears came into the week with a comfortable lead atop the DVOA charts, and while they probably won't average close to three takeaways per week, there's nothing obviously fluky about this unit's performance.
Mitchell Trubisky had his best game of his career in Week 4 against the Bucs, throwing six touchdown passes.
While Khalil Mack is rightfully getting a ton of credit for making an immediate impact as a pass-rusher, there's another factor helping to push the Bears up the charts: health. This might very well be the healthiest team in the league, as its most notable injuries are to reserves such as Sam Acho, Anthony Miller and Adam Shaheen. Prince Amukamara missed the win over the Buccaneers with a hamstring injury, but there are about 30 teams who would kill to be as healthy as the Bears are through five weeks.
The Bears aren't likely to slow down soon. Their next month consists of four games against the AFC East, with road games against the Dolphins and Bills and a homestand against the Patriots and Jets. The tough stretch of their schedule doesn't arrive until November, when they get the Vikings and then the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving on a short week. After a road trip to play the Giants, Nagy's team has consecutive home games against the Rams and Packers, which could end up deciding their divisional fate. This stretch looked even worse when it seemed like the 49ers were going to be a scary team in San Francisco, although the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo makes a Week 16 trip to the Bay more palatable.
It's too simplistic to say that the Bears are going to go as far as Mitchell Trubisky will take them, but it's also the realistic answer. The 2017 Jaguars comps for this team make a lot of sense, and we saw that the Jaguars were capable of nearly breaking into the Super Bowl when Good Blake showed up during the win over the Steelers in the divisional round and the first half of the AFC title game against the Patriots. Trubisky had his best game as a pro in the win over the Bucs, although there were still missed throws and mistakes scattered amid a six-touchdown game.
Jordan Howard is too good to stay down all year. He's averaging just 3.2 yards per carry but ranked 10th in success rate heading into the week, suggesting that the former Pro Bowler just isn't breaking many big runs. Indeed, Howard has 64 carries, but none have gone for more than 17 yards and just two have topped 11 yards. If we use his rate of production from 2016-17, we would have expected Howard to turn about 10 percent of his runs into gains of 12 yards or more. Those big plays are coming, and that should take some of the pressure off Trubisky. The Bears can win with running and defense. When they get good days from Trubisky, they might be one of the five best teams in football.
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 18.3 percent
Current FPI playoff chances: 73.8 percent
Difference: 55.5 percent
To some extent, the Bears are in the eye of the beholder. They could very well be 4-0 if not for that capitulation in Week 1 against the Packers, which was in part self-inflicted by some bad playcalling from Matt Nagy and a dropped interception by Kyle Fuller late in the fourth quarter. They're also two plays from going 1-3 if the Seahawks don't drop a potential pick-six in Week 2 and Josh Rosen completes a pass to get in field goal range on fourth-and-5 in Week 3. They've faced backup quarterbacks for meaningful stretches of play in three of their first four games, but their defense was responsible for knocking each of those starters out of the game via injury or benching.
As I wrote about last week, though, this defense is excellent. The Bears came into the week with a comfortable lead atop the DVOA charts, and while they probably won't average close to three takeaways per week, there's nothing obviously fluky about this unit's performance.
Mitchell Trubisky had his best game of his career in Week 4 against the Bucs, throwing six touchdown passes.
While Khalil Mack is rightfully getting a ton of credit for making an immediate impact as a pass-rusher, there's another factor helping to push the Bears up the charts: health. This might very well be the healthiest team in the league, as its most notable injuries are to reserves such as Sam Acho, Anthony Miller and Adam Shaheen. Prince Amukamara missed the win over the Buccaneers with a hamstring injury, but there are about 30 teams who would kill to be as healthy as the Bears are through five weeks.
The Bears aren't likely to slow down soon. Their next month consists of four games against the AFC East, with road games against the Dolphins and Bills and a homestand against the Patriots and Jets. The tough stretch of their schedule doesn't arrive until November, when they get the Vikings and then the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving on a short week. After a road trip to play the Giants, Nagy's team has consecutive home games against the Rams and Packers, which could end up deciding their divisional fate. This stretch looked even worse when it seemed like the 49ers were going to be a scary team in San Francisco, although the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo makes a Week 16 trip to the Bay more palatable.
It's too simplistic to say that the Bears are going to go as far as Mitchell Trubisky will take them, but it's also the realistic answer. The 2017 Jaguars comps for this team make a lot of sense, and we saw that the Jaguars were capable of nearly breaking into the Super Bowl when Good Blake showed up during the win over the Steelers in the divisional round and the first half of the AFC title game against the Patriots. Trubisky had his best game as a pro in the win over the Bucs, although there were still missed throws and mistakes scattered amid a six-touchdown game.
Jordan Howard is too good to stay down all year. He's averaging just 3.2 yards per carry but ranked 10th in success rate heading into the week, suggesting that the former Pro Bowler just isn't breaking many big runs. Indeed, Howard has 64 carries, but none have gone for more than 17 yards and just two have topped 11 yards. If we use his rate of production from 2016-17, we would have expected Howard to turn about 10 percent of his runs into gains of 12 yards or more. Those big plays are coming, and that should take some of the pressure off Trubisky. The Bears can win with running and defense. When they get good days from Trubisky, they might be one of the five best teams in football.
