Meatball coaching logic, are they this stupid?

casinnova

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Please follow the logic... The niners have a 7 point lead with two possessions late in the game. They play conservative and go three and out both times. The Packers tie the game and now the niners have possession with less than 2 minutes and the game is tied. Now if they make a mistake, they risk losing the game. If they played aggressive during either of their earlier two possessions with the lead, making a mistake only loses you the lead potentially.... It is not logical to play conservative with a lead with that much time remaining in the game, especially against a QB like Rodgers.

Head coaches are intelligent people, no? Why is this seemingly simple logic that could be understood by a 5 year old lost on head coaches? The eagles head coach in the Superbowl last season proved that at least one coach in the league isn't a meatball idiot. (Surely there are a few more like him).

Is nagy under the same mental illness? How can you not see the simple logic?

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msadows

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Please follow the logic... The niners have a 7 point lead with two possessions late in the game. They play conservative and go three and out both times. The Packers tie the game and now the niners have possession with less than 2 minutes and the game is tied. Now if they make a mistake, they risk losing the game. If they played aggressive during either of their earlier two possessions with the lead, making a mistake only loses you the lead potentially.... It is not logical to play conservative with a lead with that much time remaining in the game, especially against a QB like Rodgers.

Head coaches are intelligent people, no? Why is this seemingly simple logic that could be understood by a 5 year old lost on head coaches? The eagles head coach in the Superbowl last season proved that at least one coach in the league isn't a meatball idiot. (Surely there are a few more like him).

Is nagy under the same mental illness? How can you not see the simple logic?

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Because they have a scrub named Beathard as their QB. He had a good game, but hes still a scrub.

You know what scrubs do more often than not when you play aggresive? Lose you the game.
 

casinnova

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Because they have a scrub named Beathard as their QB. He had a good game, but hes still a scrub.

You know what scrubs do more often than not when you play aggresive? Lose you the game.
You mean Trubisky is a scrub too? Coaches lose games too. I guess you're of the meathead clan that doesn't understand logic.

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msadows

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You mean Trubisky is a scrub too? Coaches lose games too. I guess you're of the meathead clan that doesn't understand logic.

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Uhh, yes, I'd say Nagy has more faith in his kicker making a 52 yarder than mitch making it on 3rd and 4th. Its why he ran the ball instead of passing it.

And biscuit is a lot better than beathard. Completely different situations, with the way the 49ers D was playing late in the game you don't play aggressive with a shitty backup QB who's had 8 starts. Easy to think about shit after it already happened, but if he peterman'd the fucking game the coach would seem even more stupid.
 

TL1961

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Coaches play the percentages. They watch thousands of hours of film and have all the analytics and stats to guide their decisions.

Fans remember only when it doesn’t work, and incorrectly extrapolate that to be 100% of the time.
 

msadows

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Coaches play the percentages. They watch thousands of hours of film and have all the analytics and stats to guide their decisions.

Fans remember only when it doesn’t work, and incorrectly extrapolate that to be 100% of the time.

This, every time this. People bitched nagy out for not running on 3rd down versus the packers, now they bitch him out for not passing it.
 

jsu34

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Meh, they are 1 and 4. There's literally no risk. Safe you lose. Aggressive you lose.
 

greg23

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This, every time this. People bitched nagy out for not running on 3rd down versus the packers, now they bitch him out for not passing it.

Different games and different situations

One protecting the lead and playing the clock with a team out of timeouts
The other a tie game in ot settling for a 50+ yard fg that are about a 50-50 shot and missing likely means losing as the other team is 15 yards away from their gw fg...vs getting the kick to a 40 yard attempt where it's now about a 85-90% chance to make.

Didnt like the play calls or personnel on 2nd or 3rd down.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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Uhh, yes, I'd say Nagy has more faith in his kicker making a 52 yarder than mitch making it on 3rd and 4th. Its why he ran the ball instead of passing it.

And biscuit is a lot better than beathard. Completely different situations, with the way the 49ers D was playing late in the game you don't play aggressive with a shitty backup QB who's had 8 starts. Easy to think about shit after it already happened, but if he peterman'd the fucking game the coach would seem even more stupid.

If the bolded is true then Nagy is an idiot for not having faith in his franchise guy. If he has reason to not have faith, then Mitch isn't a franchise guy.

Luckily, I just think you are wrong: Nagy thought the smartest thing to do was least expected thing: run. He was wrong, and I am ok with this (but only for now). I still think it's possible he can learn and change. But from now on, I want him to go for jugular. I mean WTH Nagy? It's not like the seat under you is warm for Christ's sake. Go for broke in a year where there still is little expected and playoffs is kinda up in the air for this young team, so just friggin' go for it and see from there.
 

DaaBears

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If the bolded is true then Nagy is an idiot for not having faith in his franchise guy. If he has reason to not have faith, then Mitch isn't a franchise guy.

Luckily, I just think you are wrong: Nagy thought the smartest thing to do was least expected thing: run. He was wrong, and I am ok with this (but only for now). I still think it's possible he can learn and change. But from now on, I want him to go for jugular. I mean WTH Nagy? It's not like the seat under you is warm for Christ's sake. Go for broke in a year where there still is little expected and playoffs is kinda up in the air for this young team, so just friggin' go for it and see from there.

Coaches play the percentages. They watch thousands of hours of film and have all the analytics and stats to guide their decisions.

Fans remember only when it doesn’t work, and incorrectly extrapolate that to be 100% of the time.

This is the correct answer.
 

Bearly

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Coaches play the percentages. They watch thousands of hours of film and have all the analytics and stats to guide their decisions.

Fans remember only when it doesn’t work, and incorrectly extrapolate that to be 100% of the time.

When it comes to Rodgers, film says you need more points.
 

Visionman

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Coaches play the percentages. They watch thousands of hours of film and have all the analytics and stats to guide their decisions.

Fans remember only when it doesn’t work, and incorrectly extrapolate that to be 100% of the time.

Do the percentages and analytics factor in a QB like Rogers or a kicker like Parkey?

Going blindly by stats is the definition of dumb.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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This is the correct answer.

The correct answer to what? My objection to the poster who said: "I'd say Nagy has more faith in his kicker making a 52 yarder than mitch making it on 3rd and 4th"?

How is TL's post an answer to the fact that no matter what analytics and stats say that lacking faith in your franchise guy is not only mysterious (cause he was playing well) but misguided? Especially since his faith in the kicker proved misguided.

I mean what stat justifies that? the 6 for 7? lol. Nagy deserves his criticism for the OT drive 100%.

It also should be stated that I am happy he is here and designing plays for the Bears and hope he goes for the jugular more from now on.
 

Angry Boomer

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What amazes me is that fans like us sit and watch the teams on TV and we can see what the team is doing wrong on the field, and we can usually make the right call on how to playcall, or how to fix the problem,etc...Then we watch coaches that have been in football their entire lives making the wrong calls time after time as well as using the wrong strategy......If we as fans can see what the right corrections are, why cant they?..I'm sure everyone here has seen games where the coach switches from his winning strategy to the old "prevent", plays "not to lose",and then loses the game as a result..It boggles the mind, and frustrates me no end..
 

DaaBears

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The correct answer to what? My objection to the poster who said: "I'd say Nagy has more faith in his kicker making a 52 yarder than mitch making it on 3rd and 4th"?

How is TL's post an answer to the fact that no matter what analytics and stats say that lacking faith in your franchise guy is not only mysterious (cause he was playing well) but misguided? Especially since his faith in the kicker proved misguided.

I mean what stat justifies that? the 6 for 7? lol. Nagy deserves his criticism for the OT drive 100%.

It also should be stated that I am happy he is here and designing plays for the Bears and hope he goes for the jugular more from now on.

Sorry about that. It was 6:45 this morning, and somehow when I was quoting Tl1961 I quoted your post as well. Didn't mean to do that, it had nothing to do with it. Sorry for the confusion on that.

The part that I was saying is the correct answer, for clarity, is the part that people only remember when a conservative strategy doesn't work, not when it does work. And I am not in agreement with the way the Bears handled OT this past week at all. The basic fan sits there watching a game and its 4th down, or whatever, and they are yelling go for it. And then when they go for it, and don't get it, well then it wasn't properly executed and they move on. And if they punt, well what an asshole conservative move that was. Had San Fran picked up a first down last night, which they missed by 1 yard on 3rd, the game is over and their strategy worked, and people just walk away and say San Fran beat Packers, period. Fans only remember what they want to remember, and also think that they are always right, and have more a better feel for this than people that get paid millions to do it, and have been doing it their whole life.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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Sorry about that. It was 6:45 this morning, and somehow when I was quoting Tl1961 I quoted your post as well. Didn't mean to do that, it had nothing to do with it. Sorry for the confusion on that.

The part that I was saying is the correct answer, for clarity, is the part that people only remember when a conservative strategy doesn't work, not when it does work. And I am not in agreement with the way the Bears handled OT this past week at all. The basic fan sits there watching a game and its 4th down, or whatever, and they are yelling go for it. And then when they go for it, and don't get it, well then it wasn't properly executed and they move on. And if they punt, well what an asshole conservative move that was. Had San Fran picked up a first down last night, which they missed by 1 yard on 3rd, the game is over and their strategy worked, and people just walk away and say San Fran beat Packers, period. Fans only remember what they want to remember, and also think that they are always right, and have more a better feel for this than people that get paid millions to do it, and have been doing it their whole life.

Agreed, but I would only add a caveat that coaches who get paid millions and are overall successful tend to be immune from fans second-guessing them. While Belichick is immune now or Sean Payton or whomever, they were not always immune. They learned and Nagy has the same space to learn (whether fans are happy about that or not is irrelevant and you are right there).

I saw one poster say the Bears lost two games by a total of 4 points. And that's good. I see it more as Nagy had offensive drives that he NEEDED to score to win in GB and in MIA ... he is still figuring out how to design the plays he knows will be there when he needs them the most IMO.
 

iueyedoc

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This, every time this. People bitched nagy out for not running on 3rd down versus the packers, now they bitch him out for not passing it.

3rd and 1 is much different than 3rd and 4. Talk about remembering what you want to remember.
 

casinnova

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A lot of replies are not addressing the logic of the situation in the niners game.

Scenario 1: You play "not to lose" and try to defend your 7 point lead on 3 separate packer possessions. The "odds" or "analytics" or "statistics" say that Aaron Rodgers is gonna score on your ass.

Scenario 2: You play to win... if you make a mistake with a 7 point lead, you still get to try again with a tie game. In scenario 1, they didn't even try 2 out of 3 chances they got. The risk is exactly the same in this scenario but the reward is much greater.

This isn't about football schemes and statistics... it is purely logic... why not take a risk when you have a lead? This is exactly what bad gamblers do when they stop betting high once they have won some money. This is what bad investors do when they invest conservatively when the market is down. It's time to double down and buy low. You may be able to trace this to "loss aversion". Being more scared to lose than you have a desire to win. You get what I'm saying now?
 

BNB

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If it goes wrong, people are gonna bitch.

If we passed on that 3rd down and Trubisky got sacked or picked, people would have been all over Nagy saying that he should have ran the ball.

Same shit in the GB game when Nagy passed it on 3rd and 1 and we settled for a FG... people were saying he should have ran it instead. Yes, it's easier to say we should have ran when it was 1 yard to go as opposed to 4 yards, but still.... Also, we were running it well in OT. It isn't impossible to think that Howard could have picked up a few yards.
 

bamainatlanta

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This, every time this. People bitched nagy out for not running on 3rd down versus the packers, now they bitch him out for not passing it.

One situation was a 3rd & 1 in the red zone(?) And the other was settling for a 50yd+ FG. Different situations entirely. Both strategies tried by him were the wrong decisions. Throw a 1yd out to a 5"8 WR against press coverage was a fool's strategy.
 

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