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Thread: Report: Cubs considering bringing back Addison Russell

  1. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by anotheridiot View Post
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    They prefer to use him to take at bats from Almora and Schwarber instead of Zobrist and LaStella.

    Its incomprehensible that bouncing players around the diamond might be part of the problem.
    Schwarber is a better hitter. Fielding Happ has the edge still in LF. Hitting RH Happ fell off. So I really don’t know why but it limited his value. The year before he did much better hitting RH.

    This could just be a sophomore slump issue and playing time tends to cure that ill. As far as D goes I don’t buy into it myself. He has never been a Plus defender. I don’t see that getting into his head as a hitter.

    If he comes in and starts hitting RH again and the power picks up to 2017 levels. Then he will push himself into a situation that Baez did.

    Baez was playing at league avg levels until this year. His production forced Joe’s hand. Ian would have to do the same. At the end of the day that is what you want to see with your self developed players

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    well, friday is the deadline, the way this offseason is going, I would not rule out the cubs staying in on Addison just because they think they will get a bargain.
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    Quote Originally Posted by anotheridiot View Post
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    well, friday is the deadline, the way this offseason is going, I would not rule out the cubs staying in on Addison just because they think they will get a bargain.
    It doesn't make sense to trade him right now. You'd get nothing and the guy still has a ton of potential.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Schwarber is a better hitter. Fielding Happ has the edge still in LF. Hitting RH Happ fell off. So I really don’t know why but it limited his value. The year before he did much better hitting RH.

    This could just be a sophomore slump issue and playing time tends to cure that ill. As far as D goes I don’t buy into it myself. He has never been a Plus defender. I don’t see that getting into his head as a hitter.

    If he comes in and starts hitting RH again and the power picks up to 2017 levels. Then he will push himself into a situation that Baez did.

    Baez was playing at league avg levels until this year. His production forced Joe’s hand. Ian would have to do the same. At the end of the day that is what you want to see with your self developed players
    How many outfield assists did Happ have? Schwarbs worked his ass off to become a very good left fielder, but he still got pulled from games and missed key late at bats. 11 assists in 186 chances with a .995 fielding percentage. Heyward gets 7 assists in 255 chances and a .988 fielding percentage. Ian happ, 6 assists in 174 chances and a .988 fielding percentage.

    Maybe its just time to let Schwarber play left field and an entire game.
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    Quote Originally Posted by anotheridiot View Post
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    How many outfield assists did Happ have? Schwarbs worked his ass off to become a very good left fielder, but he still got pulled from games and missed key late at bats. 11 assists in 186 chances with a .995 fielding percentage. Heyward gets 7 assists in 255 chances and a .988 fielding percentage. Ian happ, 6 assists in 174 chances and a .988 fielding percentage.

    Maybe its just time to let Schwarber play left field and an entire game.
    Assists and fielding percentage alone don't tell you whether a guy is a good fielder.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fatbeard View Post
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    Assists and fielding percentage alone don't tell you whether a guy is a good fielder.
    Anyone was able to see he worked on his craft and improved greatly. Might as well fall back on my original assessment that they drafted a DH.
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    Quote Originally Posted by anotheridiot View Post
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    Anyone was able to see he worked on his craft and improved greatly. Might as well fall back on my original assessment that they drafted a DH.
    He did improve greatly, but he's still only an overall average LF. He's not "very good," or even close to it. He will never get to enough balls to be a good fielder.

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    But even if he's just an average defender, his offensive capabilities outweigh that enough to have him out there. Guys that can hit 30+ home runs and get on at a about a .350 clip are pretty rare. There were only about 20 last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Castor76 View Post
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    But even if he's just an average defender, his offensive capabilities outweigh that enough to have him out there. Guys that can hit 30+ home runs and get on at a about a .350 clip are pretty rare. There were only about 20 last year.
    I agree completely, I was just disputing the idea that Schwarber is a "very good fielder" who deserves to be compared to a perennial gold glover in Heyward.

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    Its a shame someone has to beat his wife and that is the problem here with bringing him back "Image". If this was Bryant or Rizzo people would be singing give him a 2nd chance or counseling. Release him and be done with it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fatbeard View Post
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    I agree completely, I was just disputing the idea that Schwarber is a "very good fielder" who deserves to be compared to a perennial gold glover in Heyward.
    Schwarber was good enough that he deserved to be left in some games when they were down a run when 40 times the second half of last season they end up losing said games because no clutch hits were happening. The stats I chose this time were at least showing he was doing enough. I mean, after you lose the first 30 of the second half games, there was no adjustment, just pull Schwarber. The division was lost by one fucking game.

    Its like the kid that gets the same participation trophy as the winner gets, sometimes it just teaches them to not waste their time and work their ass off to try to win.
    109 years since the last back to back world titles

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    LF only

    Schwarber UZR150 14.0
    Happ UZR150: 12.4

    Arm: Happ 1.5 Schwarber: 7.9

    Honestly Schwarber has become something intriguing in value going forward. I would almost be interested if he could hold down RF some innings in 2019.


    Still this feel off topic in a Russell thread. I think we should move it back to Russell related news with his deadline approaching. At this point I believe it is 50%/50% stay or go in some form.

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    Quote Originally Posted by anotheridiot View Post
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    Schwarber was good enough that he deserved to be left in some games when they were down a run when 40 times the second half of last season they end up losing said games because no clutch hits were happening. The stats I chose this time were at least showing he was doing enough. I mean, after you lose the first 30 of the second half games, there was no adjustment, just pull Schwarber. The division was lost by one fucking game.

    Its like the kid that gets the same participation trophy as the winner gets, sometimes it just teaches them to not waste their time and work their ass off to try to win.
    I was very impressed with Schwarber's improvement in the field. He went from -1.4 dWAR to -0.4. If he just maintained that, I'd be satisfied. If he can just get stable versus lefties and make his 2018 pre-ASB his norm I'd live with that all day and night. Depending on the line up, he's solid for the 5/6 slot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    LF only

    Schwarber UZR150 14.0
    Happ UZR150: 12.4

    Arm: Happ 1.5 Schwarber: 7.9

    Honestly Schwarber has become something intriguing in value going forward. I would almost be interested if he could hold down RF some innings in 2019.


    Still this feel off topic in a Russell thread. I think we should move it back to Russell related news with his deadline approaching. At this point I believe it is 50%/50% stay or go in some form.
    That sample size though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fatbeard View Post
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    That sample size though.
    276 innings for Happ.

    Honestly if I was going poor man mentality for the Cubs I would go Happ LF platoon Almora and Heyward in CF and Schwarber RF. Schwarber has a cannon of a arm and his D is looking plus now where you can experiment. Happ IMO is best suited as a lead off with some power. He just needs to be more aggressive earlier in the count vs sitting until he is behind. Basically wait for the first called then attack in zone then defend the plate if behind. Don't be afraid to bunt if they are in the shift. Think he just went walk mode as a young hitter shoved into a unfamiliar role.

    That is a poor man's mentality.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    276 innings for Happ.

    Honestly if I was going poor man mentality for the Cubs I would go Happ LF platoon Almora and Heyward in CF and Schwarber RF. Schwarber has a cannon of a arm and his D is looking plus now where you can experiment. Happ IMO is best suited as a lead off with some power. He just needs to be more aggressive earlier in the count vs sitting until he is behind. Basically wait for the first called then attack in zone then defend the plate if behind. Don't be afraid to bunt if they are in the shift. Think he just went walk mode as a young hitter shoved into a unfamiliar role.

    That is a poor man's mentality.
    I'm working on completely my research for it, but swinging early is actually better for everyone. I don't have the numbers with me, but I took a sample of top 10 OPS in 2018 and then used their 16-18 splits to give a larger sample size. When those guys put one of the first 3 pitches in play, they hit .350 with a .360+ OBP and .660+ SLG versus a .250 BA, .404 OBP, and only a .450ish SLG.

    I then decided to see what the top pitchers did. So I did the same with the 10 lowest OPS against and used the same 16-18 splits. Hitters had a .275 BA with a roughly .285 OBP and .440 SLG when they put one of the first 3 pitches in play. In ABs that had 4 or more pitches, hitters only had about a .150 BA with a .290 OBP and a .280 SLG.

    So strangely enough, working the count doesn't work like you think it would.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Castor76 View Post
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    I'm working on completely my research for it, but swinging early is actually better for everyone. I don't have the numbers with me, but I took a sample of top 10 OPS in 2018 and then used their 16-18 splits to give a larger sample size. When those guys put one of the first 3 pitches in play, they hit .350 with a .360+ OBP and .660+ SLG versus a .250 BA, .404 OBP, and only a .450ish SLG.

    I then decided to see what the top pitchers did. So I did the same with the 10 lowest OPS against and used the same 16-18 splits. Hitters had a .275 BA with a roughly .285 OBP and .440 SLG when they put one of the first 3 pitches in play. In ABs that had 4 or more pitches, hitters only had about a .150 BA with a .290 OBP and a .280 SLG.

    So strangely enough, working the count doesn't work like you think it would.
    It was more so to build up pitch counts to get into the pen early. It is getting out dated with deeper pens. I've always been a passive until strike 1. I don't like giving a pitcher strike 1 for free. If he is playing around then let him screw himself. If he is attacking the plate then I have to be aggressive also because I'm going to get a fat one and I'll foul off his pitches. He may beat me but I'll get my money's worth. That is how I approached my AB's when I played the game. (no not pro or beer league but did some 12" Hardball in the Navy and 16" for fun.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    It was more so to build up pitch counts to get into the pen early. It is getting out dated with deeper pens. I've always been a passive until strike 1. I don't like giving a pitcher strike 1 for free. If he is playing around then let him screw himself. If he is attacking the plate then I have to be aggressive also because I'm going to get a fat one and I'll foul off his pitches. He may beat me but I'll get my money's worth. That is how I approached my AB's when I played the game. (no not pro or beer league but did some 12" Hardball in the Navy and 16" for fun.)
    I know the thought process, but it doesn't really work as well as one would think. You're much more likely to get a starter out of a game by scoring runs than getting him to his pitch limit. And if the OBP is negligible, wouldn't any batter or coach prefer the approach with the better SLG and OPS?

    Just trying to pull this off the top of my head, but if you had the hitter with 600 PA in the 3 pitches or less approach, that hitter had 211 hits with 5 HBP, along with 50 doubles, 1 triple, and 38 homers. The 4 pitches or more would have had 119 hits, 120 walks, and 1 HBP, along with roughly 30 doubles, 1 triple, and 17 homers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Castor76 View Post
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    I was very impressed with Schwarber's improvement in the field. He went from -1.4 dWAR to -0.4. If he just maintained that, I'd be satisfied. If he can just get stable versus lefties and make his 2018 pre-ASB his norm I'd live with that all day and night. Depending on the line up, he's solid for the 5/6 slot.
    Thanks for some usable stats. He has worked hard but people still just keep thinking he is a catcher trying to find a spot.

    I posted that video of the home run on top of the scoreboard hit off a lefty. He just needs at bats. We can watch Rizzo go on a 1-30 dive against lefties but he stays in. Look at Schwarbers splits vs lhp, his obp is .352 with .340 babip. All he gets all year is 94 chances.

    My whole argument is the game is tight, they pull him for defense, and they put in a player that is not that much better. Sure they might put a much better player in center with Almora, but not that much better in left. For that they lose 40 games out of 82 in the second half because they cannot score more than 1 run.

    He did not need to get a hit every time, but one or two could have sealed the division.
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    Quote Originally Posted by anotheridiot View Post
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    Thanks for some usable stats. He has worked hard but people still just keep thinking he is a catcher trying to find a spot.

    I posted that video of the home run on top of the scoreboard hit off a lefty. He just needs at bats. We can watch Rizzo go on a 1-30 dive against lefties but he stays in. Look at Schwarbers splits vs lhp, his obp is .352 with .340 babip. All he gets all year is 94 chances.

    My whole argument is the game is tight, they pull him for defense, and they put in a player that is not that much better. Sure they might put a much better player in center with Almora, but not that much better in left. For that they lose 40 games out of 82 in the second half because they cannot score more than 1 run.

    He did not need to get a hit every time, but one or two could have sealed the division.
    I'm a Schwarber fan, not so much that I wouldn't use him in a trade for a good piece back, but love the potential I see. If he puts in that much work becoming a better, not great but better defender, then imagine what he can do if he puts the same effort into hitting lefties. What do the Cubs have lots of on their starting staff? Pretty good lefties. I hope Schwarber just jumps in and grabs as much BP versus them as possible. I'd probably, if I were him, live at a Florida college taking all the swings I could against lefties, splitting time with keeping up my defensive work.

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    The main thing for Russel is going to be is was 2016 the norm or an aberration.

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    So Friday is the deadline?
    I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends,
    Till we blow like Chicago wind


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