Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

brett05 said:

Carl was never in Kopech territory.

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What's your point? The reason Carl went to the bullpen is because he lacked more than a fringy third pitch and command to be a starter. Kopech is no different. If he doesn't have a decent third pitch it doesn't matter how good his fastball/breaking ball are he'll end up in the bullpen. That's the way this shit works.

I don't want to hijack this thread to speak about White Sox. I simply accurately discredited a supplied link on prospect rankings. If you want to debate the merits of Kopech and his ceiling, we can in a White Sox thread, but you'll have an uphill battle as no one is seeing Kopech as anything but a future ace.

brett05 said:

I don't want to hijack this thread to speak about White Sox. I simply accurately discredited a supplied link on prospect rankings. If you want to debate the merits of Kopech and his ceiling, we can in a White Sox thread, but you'll have an uphill battle as no one is seeing Kopech as anything but a future ace.

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You're missing my point. That certainly is his ceiling but his floor isn't as high as you're making it out to be. You don't start games in the majors with only 2 average and above pitches. Maybe his change up develops into an average pitch. But if it doesn't he's going to end up in the bullpen. If I had to put odds on it I'd say he's more likely than not to develop into a starter and as you suggest probably a decent one. But to sit here and say he's never going to be a bullpen arm is entirely ignorant of how pitching prospects work. Andrew Miller had better stuff than Kopech coming through the minors and because he couldn't control his pitches he bounced around almost out of the league until he finally landed in a bullpen. It doesn't matter how good your pitches are if you lack command and/or a third viable pitch you're not going to be a starter. That's just the way it is.

You also seem to take that as some sort of slight against him. Frankly I'd argue an elite closer which he almost certainly would be is more valuable than a 3/4 starter anyways. I'd much rather have what Edwards has done in relief than for him to be a middling starter especially if you're talking about playoff type baseball which hopefully for the sox will be where they are by the time he comes to matter.

Created a thread to discuss Kopech so that this thread can remain on topic

I tend to agree with Beck on this kid. I love that he brings everything he has, every game. He's got mad stuff but he throws a lot of pitches, so many that he's only a 5/6 inning guy. Plus they are very stressful pitches as he throws 100+ speed. I just don't believe his arm will hold up to that kind stress every 5 days over a 162 game season. He could become an elite closer and have a lot longer career.

baseball america has their updated lists out. BN covered it well here http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/...-list-is-out-with-david-bote-in-the-top-five/

Aside from mentioning it, I wanted to bring up how interesting it is they have Richard Gallardo ranked 10th behind ODLC. He hasn't even pitched as a pro yet after being signed july 2. It's also him being ahead of both Roederer and Davis who were over slot second round picks. Think that says more about Gallardo than it does about them. If he's that high already then I think there's a good shot if he progresses like you hope that he could end up in the top 20 of all prospects at some point. Granted the cubs system isn't particularly deep at the top end but that's still a really aggressive ranking. Neither of Toress/Eloy were ranked this high this quickly in 2013 when all you had was a recently drafted bryant and Almora.

beckdawg said:

baseball america has their updated lists out. BN covered it well here http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/...-list-is-out-with-david-bote-in-the-top-five/

Aside from mentioning it, I wanted to bring up how interesting it is they have Richard Gallardo ranked 10th behind ODLC. He hasn't even pitched as a pro yet after being signed july 2. It's also him being ahead of both Roederer and Davis who were over slot second round picks. Think that says more about Gallardo than it does about them. If he's that high already then I think there's a good shot if he progresses like you hope that he could end up in the top 20 of all prospects at some point. Granted the cubs system isn't particularly deep at the top end but that's still a really aggressive ranking. Neither of Toress/Eloy were ranked this high this quickly in 2013 when all you had was a recently drafted bryant and Almora.

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It really sounds like both. They got a nice guy late and they have a very thin system.

Think I predicted 2 here. Didn’t think Amaya breaks too 100 but did

Cubs
No. 1 prospect: Miguel Amaya (No. 97)
No. of Top 100 prospects: 1
Biggest jump: LHP Brailyn Marquez (26 to 4)
Biggest drop: RHP Jen-Ho Tseng (11 to NR)
The Cubs' system is the thinnest it has been this decade, but that can happen when you win a World Series with a core of top prospects. Injuries and ineffectiveness with some of their top arms have stymied efforts to develop some homegrown pitching, but the emergence of Miguel Amaya as one of the game's best catching prospects has been a positive development.
Top 30 Prospects list »

So Marquez’s numbers finally got noticed. He is 6’4” 175 with room to grow. Lefty mid 90’s that touches 98. Ya that deserved a jump up.

Albertos that was long waited.

Hatch honestly is back of the rotation or 2 inning guy. His stuff is not dominating.

Underwood is going yo-yo. Better stuff than Tseng but we have been here.

Cole got deserved love.

Clifton got a fair deal. He is not a TOR at all but settling there after adjusting is very fair.

Steele honestly is a TJ case. I don’t see that

updated top 30 for mlb.com

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=chc

beckdawg said:

updated top 30 for mlb.com

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=chc

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1-6 I'm fine with.

Bote at 7...well not a bad player but it feels like the MLB success is weighing that false.

8 should be 7.

9-14 is jacked up.
I would rank it
(8 actually) Thompson (23)
9: ODLC (23)
10: Bote (25)
11: Uelmen (22)
12: Rucker (24)
13: Roederer (potential)
14: Davis (potential)

15-20 honestly is guys that have been up and down. Underwood/Clifton/Wilson/Abbott/Hatch. Hatch not enough swing and miss. Abbott is a cutter pitcher. feels pen arm. Clifton and Underwood. Enough data on both and really depends on performance. Wilson I believe is a 4th OF. Start of his decline off the top 30.

21-30 only guy that most likely jumps is Gallardo. They were not aggressive as BA with him.

https://twitter.com/thekapman/status/1022629043060002816?s=19

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Justin Steele finished his rehab starts in Azl and pitched his first game at M.B. He went under the knife last Aug so little under a year recovery from TJ.

I've been watching MLB mess up the top 30 for the Cubs for too long. They really have no clue. How long did they have Stinnett and Zastryzny in the top 30, URGHH, they were NEVER dominant in any level. I couldn’t stand seeing them in the top 30. 1/2 the people that were on the top 10 at the beginning of this year aren't even in the top 30. So I'm not an expert, nor am I physically at games, I do watch a lot of minor league games and I follow our minor leagues quite extensively. Here are my top 31, couldn’t leave Vosler off, he deserves to be on this list.

1. Nico Hoerner – MLB 6 Nico hasn’t had a lot of time to impress before he got hurt but I tried to catch all his ABs. They were Votto like. The slapped the ball the other way, he took the right pitches and swung at the strikes. He stole bases and hit for power. His defense was also amazing. He played in 14 games and reached base every game. He also had twice as many walks as SO and a 1.021OPS through THREE levels. When he was behind in the count with South Bend he had a .556 AVE!!
2. Adbert Alzolay – MLB2 So young for AAA but now lost for year so next year he will be pitching just a little ahead. He did struggle with a 4.76ERA but his walks were good. His career ERA is 3.44 and WHIP is 1.13. He may not have strong K/IP but he was young at every stop.
3. Miguel Amaya – MLB1 Miguel is a year early. He is showing good power with a .100 improvement in his slugging and has thrown out 37 of 71 base stealers. He needs to work on batting from behind the count. He’s great against lefties with a 1.026OPS. He is also a lot better at home. He had a .228 average last year so I’m not going to jump on the bandwagon like MLB and put him #1 cause he is having his first good season.
4. Cole Roederer – MLB15 Cole has impressed as an 18 year old. He has a .545 slugging in his first taste of pro baseball, he also has a .379 OBP and 6 SB.
5. Aramis Ademan – MLB5 Aramis has been pushed at a young age. He is only 19 in A+. Here is the truth, he has average speed, OBP, and power. I think because he is so young that he is expected to grow in each category but he might just be a .280 15HR, 15SB guy in the majors. That might be his ceiling. Hard to tell cause he’s so young.
6. Dakota Mekkes – MLBNA What can I say about Dakota, I believe he was in the top 30 before but somehow dropped off. I don’t know why, his highest ERA at any level ever has been 2.12. His current ERA in 2018 matches his lifetime ERA at 1.19. His WHIP is 1.01. His H/IP are AMAZING. His walks need more work but with his very low hit rate and of those hits they are mostly just singles, the walks haven’t hurt him. I also know he has some intentional walks that have made his numbers look worse, they happened in one of those extra inning games where they bunted the runner to 3rd and the manager had him IBB the next two hitters to load the bases. He got out of it of course. So why would someone with such a low hit rate, low ERA and high K/IP not end up in the top 30. Only 1 reason I can think. He’s a reliever and has very limited use as a closer. Me personally, you can’t discount missing bats and I hope to see him in September.
7. Duane Underwood – MLB10 Duane just turned 24 and he has already been up in the majors. He’s always played 1+ years young at every level and has a career 3.79ERA with a 1.31WHIP. Duane’s control can sometimes get away from him. He can go 3-4 games in a row with 1 or less walks then have a game with 5 walks. His K/IP keeps him out of the Top 5 for me. What I find very impressive is that his ERA is actually better when he is BEHIND in the count. Yes that is correct, check the splits. Never seen it before. He also likes pitching at home 2.84ERA and is 0-5 with a 7.04ERA on the road.
8. Zack Short – MLB23 Zach lacks average but makes it up in BB’s. He has a .237 ave but a .358 OBP. He also is slugging better than years past. He is young for AA as he just turned 23 a couple months ago. I think he's growing into his body and if he can get the average up he will be a good major leaguer someday.
9. Erick Leal – MLBNA Erick has a lifetime ERA of 3.03 in 451 innings. His whip is a very impressive 1.17. His strikeouts have not been impressive and it is what keeps him from most top 30 lists but this year he is close to K per IP. His ERA this year in 44 innings is 0.61. Only 21H and 7 walks for a 0.64 WHIP. I've been keeping my eye on him for a few years.
10. Matt Swarmer – MLBNA Swarmer misses bats but not the strike zone. He has only walked 16 in 93 IP this year with a 1.08 WHIP. He also has 100 K. He is in an age appropriate league. It is a complete oversite to not have him in the top 30.
11. Brailyn Marquez – MLB4 He is 19 in A- in age appropriate league. He has a 3.77ERA and a 1.42WHIP so he’s not exactly dominating, not sure why he's rated #4. He does though have a lifetime 3.40ERA and he is very young so he needs to prove something in A ball next year to move to the top 10 on my list.
12. Brendon Little – MLB 8 Brendon is going to be 22 in a week and is only in A ball where his ERA is 4.88. So far his WHIP is 1.40 and his K/IP are normal. So far he hasn’t shown the reason why MLB has him at 8 but I guess if you are drafted in the first round you deserve the buzz.
13. Keegan Thompson – MLB13 3rd rounder and only 2 years and he’s in AA. Turned 23 this year so he’s a year young for the league and he has succeeded. He has a WHIP of 1.05 and is getting better. Only thing he lacks is K/IP.
14. Erich Uelmen – MLB12 He’s a right hander similar to Justin Steele, his lifetime ERA is 3.38 and his WHIP is 1.38. Only difference is he is a year younger so that’s why I ranked him higher than Steele.
15. Michael Rucker – MLB14 Career 2.91 ERA with more K/IP low walks and less H/IP. His career WHIP is 1.09 which is great. He turned 24 a few months ago so is a little young for AA though he’s been there all year. He is susceptible to the HR.
16. Alex Lange – MLB3 So far Alex lets games get away from him. He’s good at going 5 innings, maybe 6. He does not impress in the K/IP like normal top 10 pitchers so I didn’t include him there. He does though keep his walks down. His June and July have been getting worse. If he can work on getting strike one then he would be a top 5 pitcher.
17. DJ Wilson – MLB17 DJ has always had a lower average but walks a lot. He does not have power and is small 5’8” in stature. He is supposed to have speed and stole 21 bases at one level but this year only has 8SB. He needs to start stealing again to make it to the big leagues.
18. Wyatt Short – MLBNA Short 5’8 reliever who gives up nothing 6 outings in a row but then the next outing gives up six. He has a lifetime ERA of 2.88 and WHIP of 1.25. He has more K/IP but needs to lower his walk rate a little to make it to the big leagues.
19. James Norwood – MLB24 So James Norwood has been a reliever most of his minor league career, he has stuck with an age appropriate league as well. He has slightly higher K/IP for his career and slightly lower H/IP. His walks are a good level too. So I guess it’s good to say he’s solid. Lifetime ERA of 3.77 and WHIP of 1.33 is a little high. He has always played at two levels per year but never until this year has he had an ERA under 3.00. This year it is 1.94. He has peaked at the right time. That is my guess why they brought him up.
20. Trevor Clifton – MLB18 Trevor was drafted in 2013 out of High School. He has stopped at every level, often a year ahead. He just turned 23 and is in AAA so he’s young for the league. He is succeeding with a 3.32ERA in 43IP there. His lifetime ERA is 3.77 with a WHIP of 1.33. He needs to keep his walks down as he has allowed 46 less hits than IP in his career.
21. Cory Abbott – MLB19 A right hander who has high K/IP and walks are normal. He is a tiny young for the league. Would be 23 in AA next year.
22. Jhonny Pereda – MLBNA Doubles are starting to turn into HRs. His OBP and defense is his top two strengths. He has caught more than 50% of the batters trying to steal.
23. Roberto Caro – MLBNA Has been with the Cubs since 2012. He’s now 24 and in A+ which is a little old. Reason he’s not in AA is because last year he couldn’t handle the promotion to A+ last year. They had to send him back down which stunted his growth. He has been nothing but ON FIRE all year this year with a combined OPS of .998. He has speed as well (26SB)
24. Ian Rice – MLBNA Ian is better at throwing out runners (25%) this year than any other year. He has a great OBP of .383 and he is an age appropriate league for a catcher. He has a .430 OBP against Lefties. I think he could be a good back up some day and hit against lefties.
25. Dillon Maples – MLB28 Dillion just needs control. If he had control he would be a top 5. This year alone he has 29 walks in 32IP. His 58K is amazing. I’ve watched him pitch many times. His off speed stuff is really good, no one can touch it. He just needs to control it, along with his fastball which he often throws too high out of the zone.
26. Justin Steele – MLB9 With Justin’s injury problem this year it has set him back. Though he’s done well he has only pitched 5 innings over Rookie ball so far in 2018. In 2019 they may push him to AA where he’ll be 24 which is age appropriate. That’ll be the telling year if he can stay healthy. He does have a healthy 3.34 minor league ERA but his WHIP is not low 1.40.
27. Jared Young – MLBNA A left hander hitting better against Left Handers! He has really show more power and hits over .300 average. He would be rated higher if he were a year younger.
28. Yeiler Peguero – MLBNA See Monasterio but still only 20 and in A+. Lower OBP but again very young for league. Low K rate.
29. Trent Giambrone – MLB30 This is only Trent’s 3rd year in professional ball. This year he has doubled his HR output from 16 to 32. Though his lifetime and 2018 average is just .257 his slugging percentage is climbing. He is in an age appropriate league but it is very impressive to start in AA after just two years in the minors. So it’s nice that his slugging is improving but what really puts him on this list is his speed. He also has 22 stolen bases and might be one of the only 20/20 guys in AA this year.
30. Andruw Monasterio – MLBNA Just turned 21 a couple months ago and in A+, so he’s two years early. OBP .367 and 9SB almost as many BB as K is very impressive. Needs to work on power and he’ll be in the top 20. He is 6’0” 175lbs. Only 5 career HR in 1159AB. I think he could be a .375OBP doubles machine in the majors.
31. Jason Vosler – MLB29 They say you shouldn’t bring someone up until they have 1000 minor league ABs. Well Vosler has 1710. What’s good about Jason is that he is now starting to show more power. His .466 SLG is much higher than his career .404. His average is what might keep him in AAA. His highest ever ave is .266 at any level.

Here are those who made the MLB list but not mine:
Brennan Davis – Too early, too raw, see you in two years. I have to see him play more before I can feel that he can take over one of these slots.
Oscar De La Cruz – PED’s, what is he without PEDs?
Thomas Hatch – Walk rate much too high to be successful starter, needs improvement to make this list.
Jose Albertos – Can’t throw a strike. Shut him down and move him in with a psychotherapist for the winter. Try again next year.
Nelson Velazquez – Young, had to be demoted, still not impressing in lower league.
Mark Zagunis – Has already shown what he has. Not bad, he will be a .275 hitter with a .400 OBP but his slugging will be in the .300’s. Add in no speed and I'm not sure if someone who can just hit singles or walk can really secure a major league corner outfield spot.
Erling Moreno – Too many injuries.
Richard Gallardo – Haven’t seen so can’t really rate.
David Bote – Not wasting a spot for him since Bryant still isn’t swinging a bat and he’s up with the team, his eligibility is just about gone. He’s great and I love him, he would make my top 10 easily.

Another fun list. Players that none of us have seen play but stats are fun to look at in DSL league.
Pedro Martinez – 17 year old SS who is a Switch Hitter. He is hitting .335 with .418OBP. Has no power BUT has 26SB and 8CS. He also has more BB than SO. Did I say he is ONLY 17, born in 2001.
Fabian Pertuz – 17 year old SS who has more BB than SO. Has .439OBP and 22SB and 7CS.
Luis Rodriguez – LHP Goes 5 IP at a time and has a ERA of 0.87 and WHIP of 0.68. And he’s only 18.
Rochest Cruz – 2nd – 5’11 150 lbs. He is hitting .329 with .430OBP. He has no power, BUT. He has 45SB and only 7 CS. Speedster who can get on base. Hopefully see him next year in AZL.
Carlos Morfa – 17 year old OF, 6’2 190. He has a .532 SLG which is unheard of in DSL. Unfortunately he has 25K in 77AB and only 2BB.

It is a interesting take but Nico is not top. I think that with a full season he could end up that guy.

Amaya deserves it. He was top 20 with that BA due to his top notch D. He even frames pitches at that level. The fact that he is hitting at the age of 19 pushes him into the top 100. If he continues to develop a stronger throwing arm and more OPS he could end up the top catching prospect in baseball. We are not talking about a converted 3B that is the league worst framer.

Over all I like your views. Lange is still in his first full season and this is the lowest SO/9 that he has shown. But seeing his B.B./9 also at its lowest it just tells me that they are trying to make him focus on throwing strikes vs being co-dependent on his curve. So he is not a finished product and kinda deserves his ranking based off of talent and stuff.

Thomas is a 4 pitch pitcher. Surgery robbed him of his high velocity 4 seem so now he works lower 90’s with plus command. That is why he got pushed against advanced hitting in his first year. He is advanced as a pitcher and should continue to progress. His top end maybe somewhat limited but pitichability goes along way. He has the feel of 200 IP per year and is a safe pick to start.

Alozay I’m gun shy on. Lacks that 3rd high quality pitch. Holds 2 high quality. I’m betting that he ends up a pen arm myself. Unless he uses this injury to devote to rounding out an Arsenal. I really don’t like ranking pen arms top 10 in general. But that is the nature of the system.

Rest is fine honestly. The talent is close enough to 52 pick up about 7 of them. I do agree with Little but they rank on talent. I disagree on Steel. Back early TJ. Lost nothing. Pre injury had full command of a 12-6 hammer and a mid 90’s fastball. Honestly he is the best lefty in the pipe. Little get love due to the pick. Steel has the makings of a major league starter.

Oh and the kid they ranked #4. aggressive for sure and based off talent. Lefty that Amps upper 90’s with room to grow. Again not a full arsonel so not a top 10 in my book but you don’t grow left handed guns. So for now it is fine due to the rarity.

ODLC i believe was using PED to prevent vs enhance. Most likely recovery between starts. Can’t blame the guy after his track record and millions on the line. For those guys this is their shot to make a life for their families. Way more on the line than players from the states with college degrees to fall back on.

End of the day his numbers were not super human. I honestly question the laws and they really need to relax some to keep these kids from ripping their bodies apart. Shit got out of hand and they played big brother in the after math. But some times you have to relax and honestly look at what it does and the risks involved. Is it making them super human or is it keeping them playing?

Game Recap

Trevor Clifton carried a no-hitter through 5.2 innings as he continues to pitch with confidence, the best command of his career, while effectively changing speeds. He has three distinct velocities that hitters must account for between his two-seam fastball which sits in the high-80s-to-low-90s, his changeup which is about 8-10 mph off the fastball, and then his curve which drops down into the 70s.

Really been impressed with Brennen Davis and Cole Roederer. Both are looking like really strong picks and advanced for HS bats. Davis is hitting .298/.431/.333 13.9%/16.7% bb/k and 129 wRC+. Roederer cooled off a bit from his scorching hot start but he's still at .269/.356/.490 11.9%/22.0% bb/k and 131 wRC+. Davis was supposed to be fairly raw as a hitter but the walk rate and k rate seem to indicate he's better that expected. Both could be really interesting power speed combo guys. Roederer has 9 steals in 26 games and Davis has 6 in 18. Davis' power is there yet but he's got a giant frame to grow into(6' 4" / 175). Roederer's power is already playing(.221 iso)

Tennessee 3, Jackson 1

Game Recap

Matt Swarmer struck out nine and the bullpen backed him up effectively the rest of the way as they made a Zack Short solo home run in the 5th that broke a 1-1 tie stand up.

Top Performers

Matt Swarmer: 6 IP, 2 H, R, 0 BB, 9 K (W, 4-4, 3.29)
Allen Webster: IP, 2 K (S, 3, 0.00)
Zack Short: 1-4, HR (16), R, RBI (.238)
Wynton Bernard: 1-3, RBI, BB (.299)
Charcer Burks: 1-2, BB (.234)
Injuries, Updates, and Trends

Zack Short (.238/.361/.438) has homered three times in his last 9 games.

We need to start paying attention to Allen Webster as a potential September call up. He has been lights out for the Smokies, regularly hitting 95-97 with a good breaking ball as well. In 4.2 innings he has struck out 9 batters while issuing just one walk and three hits. Webster already has 3 saves in 4 games with Tennessee.


Few pitchers can boast the strikeout-to-walk ratios that Matt Swarmer is capable of posting, and when he gets in a groove like he is in currently, it actually reaches ridiculous proportions. Over his last 8 starts (51.2 IP) he has struck out 59 batters while issuing just 4 free passes. Yep: 59-to-4. His season total of 138-to-18 in 123 innings gives him 7.7 strikeouts for every walk.

Advanced A

Myrtle Beach 5, Buies Creek 4

Game Recap

A Jhonny Pereda solo homer got the Pelicans on the board in the 1st on the way to building an early 5-0 lead as Justin Steele absolutely dominated through five no-hit innings. He tired in the 6th, giving up three runs, but the Myrtle Beach would still secure the win.

Top Performers

Justin Steele: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, BB, 7 K (W, 2-1, 2.45)
Yapson Gomez: 2.1 IP, 4 H, K (0.00)
Jhonny Pereda: 2-4, HR (8), R, 2 RBI (.279)
Andruw Monasterio: 1-2, R, RBI, 2 BB (.263)
Roberto Caro: 1-2, R, 2 BB, SB (14) (.304)
Michael Cruz: 1-2, 2B, R, RBI, SF (.143)
Injuries, Updates, and Trends



Both of the lefties that pitched in this game have been welcome recent additions to the Myrtle Beach roster. Justin Steele of course, is continuing his remarkable return from TJS, and has now put up a pitching line of: 18.1 IP, 12, 5 ER, 6 BB, 19 K. Reliever Yapson Gomez has been even better since being called up from South Bend. He has not allowed a run in 11 innings.

off of Cubs den. Steele is looking like he has lost nothing. Swarmer IMO busts down the door in the prospect ranking. His command is getting insane.

Nico Hoerner trying hard to get a AA call next spring which would probably put him in range of an injury away from the 40 man roster with a good spring. 16-49 with 9 BB, 6 SB, and only 4K in three different levels. No real blockage up the middle in the minors so wouldn't shock me if he's there.

Sad that no one in that mid-group of pitchers (Azolay, de la Cruz, Hatch, Clifton, Lange, Rucker, Little, Steele) has progressed to "likely MLB starter".

Just a bad year for the development team.