What Theo needs to do in 2018

fatbeard

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Good exaggeration. What I've implied is numbers don't play the game and you keep using numbers anyway. A platoon lead off hitter is not a leader. Jay has been a very nice surprise and a value contract. He isn't Fowler. The pitching was obviously going to be short this season. Pitching is off and team doesn't appear to have enough leadership amongst the position players.

This is merely a slightly more eloquent version of "da fire and da passion," or "TWTW" or "killer instinct" or "clutch."

Bad baseball thoughts are bad.
 

Parade_Rain

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This is merely a slightly more eloquent version of "da fire and da passion," or "TWTW" or "killer instinct" or "clutch."

Bad baseball thoughts are bad.
False. The team needed a rain delay and a good speech from a team member in Cleveland to get focused and win. Focus matters. Leadership matters. Enjoy your participation trophy.
 

Omeletpants

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Cubs have one of the worst farm systems in baseball and have little trade bait
 

beckdawg

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Good exaggeration. What I've implied is numbers don't play the game and you keep using numbers anyway. A platoon lead off hitter is not a leader. Jay has been a very nice surprise and a value contract. He isn't Fowler. The pitching was obviously going to be short this season. Pitching is off and team doesn't appear to have enough leadership amongst the position players.

How exactly do you quantify "leadership?" My issue with your argument is you're implying they aren't scoring runs because they lack leadership. That's fine if it's your opinion but it's not something you can measure or have a discussion about. For example, how do we know Jay isn't more of a "leader" than Fowler? And secondly, how do you know the leadership they have within the club isn't "enough?" Rizzo is still there off last years team. Heyward is also a club house leader. It's just a pointless argument to me because even if there is a real impact there and i'm dubious on that but even if it exists the public doesn't know it. Only those in the club house will. I also find the "numbers don't play the game" argument weak. Numbers show what happened in a game. That may or may not be predictive going forward but you can draw conclusions about what went wrong based on numbers. That's why I use them. They are something objective as opposed to gut feelings people have.

The fact of the matter is that the cubs were 5th in wRC+ behind the astros, dodgers, yanks, and nats this year. And as of right now you have 3 players on the cubs postseason roster with more than 10 PAs and a wRC+ at 80 or greater. That's Almora(14 PAs 91 wRC+), Jay(23 PAs 83 wRC+) and Contreras(28 PAs 80 wRC+). In other words, the CF platoon of Jay/Almora have been the best hitters on the team and I use the term "best" pretty loosely there as a 80 wRC+ is fairly crummy. You got 7-8 other guys who just aren't hitting. I don't see how "leadership" changes that.
 

Diehardfan

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Don't really give a shit what the reasons are.....but when you only get 3 hits and 4 baserunners off the dealings of such luminary pitchers as Hill, Morrow and Fields, you got a big problem. And it doesn't have a fucking thing to with a Joe Maddon decision....it's the playoffs, winners hit at big times and winners don't walk a gazillion guys.
 

Parade_Rain

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How exactly do you quantify "leadership?" My issue with your argument is you're implying they aren't scoring runs because they lack leadership.
I've specifically stated the Cubs had a poorly constructed roster at the start of the season and it's been extremely evident in the playoffs. You keep making posts that distract.

That's fine if it's your opinion but it's not something you can measure or have a discussion about.
1. Perhaps you can't have a discussion about it, because it appears all you have are numbers. I've stated this repeatedly and you don't get it. Numbers don't play the game. If numbers played the game, Epstein would be a robotic GM/Pres. He's even admitted that numbers don't tell the whole story of a player, but here you are arguing something else.

2. I'm sorry you can't measure it.

For example, how do we know Jay isn't more of a "leader" than Fowler?
I've already explained this. I'm not rehashing it to someone being deliberately obtuse in order to try to win an argument.

And secondly, how do you know the leadership they have within the club isn't "enough?" Rizzo is still there off last years team. Heyward is also a club house leader. It's just a pointless argument to me because even if there is a real impact there and i'm dubious on that but even if it exists the public doesn't know it. Only those in the club house will. I also find the "numbers don't play the game" argument weak. Numbers show what happened in a game. That may or may not be predictive going forward but you can draw conclusions about what went wrong based on numbers. That's why I use them. They are something objective as opposed to gut feelings people have.
Let's see. With Fowler, Cubs won the World Series. Without Fowler, Cubs are looking more like a team that will be swept out of the NLCS. That's the only objective data that matters in the end.

The fact of the matter is that the cubs were 5th in wRC+ behind the astros, dodgers, yanks, and nats this year. And as of right now you have 3 players on the cubs postseason roster with more than 10 PAs and a wRC+ at 80 or greater. That's Almora(14 PAs 91 wRC+), Jay(23 PAs 83 wRC+) and Contreras(28 PAs 80 wRC+). In other words, the CF platoon of Jay/Almora have been the best hitters on the team and I use the term "best" pretty loosely there as a 80 wRC+ is fairly crummy. You got 7-8 other guys who just aren't hitting. I don't see how "leadership" changes that.
Based upon the numbers you provided, the Nats should have beaten the Cubs. Whoops!
 

fatbeard

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False. The team needed a rain delay and a good speech from a team member in Cleveland to get focused and win. Focus matters. Leadership matters. Enjoy your participation trophy.

And that SAME FUCKING PLAYER is still on the Cubs this season, so where is this mysterious leadership vacuum you're arguing exists? When did Jason Heyward forget how to be a leader? When did Rizzo? When did Zobrist? When did Lester?

You're making up a problem that doesn't exist. Leadership is important but the Cubs don't lack it. What they lack right now is guys hitting the ball far and often and relievers who reliably get outs.
 

Parade_Rain

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And that SAME FUCKING PLAYER is still on the Cubs this season, so where is this mysterious leadership vacuum you're arguing exists? When did Jason Heyward forget how to be a leader? When did Rizzo? When did Zobrist? When did Lester?

You're making up a problem that doesn't exist. Leadership is important but the Cubs don't lack it. What they lack right now is guys hitting the ball far and often and relievers who reliably get outs.
participation-trophies.jpg
 

fatbeard

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Let's see. With Fowler, Cubs won the World Series. Without Fowler, Cubs are looking more like a team that will be swept out of the NLCS. That's the only objective data that matters in the end.

With Miguel Montero, Cubs won the World Series. Without Miguel Montero, Cubs are looking more like a team that will be swept out of the NLCS.

With Travis Wood, Cubs won the World Series. Without Travis Wood, Cubs are looking more like a team that will be swept out of the NLCS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Bad arguments are bad.
 

TC in Mississippi

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My favorite baseball quote over the last few years is "baseball is a math problem until pesky humans get involved". In other words numbers are great and they tell you a great deal, probably most of the story, but players are people and you cannot ignore that aspect of the game. You do it at your own peril. Frankly it's Theo's blend of analytics and people based interactions that we can thank for having the players we do. It's important and it matters.
 

Parade_Rain

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With Miguel Montero, Cubs won the World Series. Without Miguel Montero, Cubs are looking more like a team that will be swept out of the NLCS.

With Travis Wood, Cubs won the World Series. Without Travis Wood, Cubs are looking more like a team that will be swept out of the NLCS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Bad arguments are bad.
The other contributor the Cubs lost (due to retirement and no fault to the organization) is Ross. You can't explain what his presence to the team meant, but the video at the last home game said it all. Ross helped other Cubs players achieve. That's leadership. Screaming "Respect Me" and going 0-14 afterwards isn't. Sorry leadership isn't measureable for you to accumulate on fangraphs. It's obviously a concept you can't grasp WRT to team sports.
 

fatbeard

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My favorite baseball quote over the last few years is "baseball is a math problem until pesky humans get involved". In other words numbers are great and they tell you a great deal, probably most of the story, but players are people and you cannot ignore that aspect of the game. You do it at your own peril. Frankly it's Theo's blend of analytics and people based interactions that we can thank for having the players we do. It's important and it matters.

Still waiting to hear how a roster with Rizzo, Heyward, Lester, and Zobrist "NEEDz MOAR LEadershiP!

As opposed to, you know, more base hits and getting guys out.
 

fatbeard

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The other contributor the Cubs lost (due to retirement and no fault to the organization) is Ross. You can't explain what his presence to the team meant, but the video at the last home game said it all. Ross helped other Cubs players achieve. That's leadership. Screaming "Respect Me" and going 0-14 afterwards isn't. Sorry leadership isn't measureable for you to accumulate on fangraphs. It's obviously a concept you can't grasp WRT to team sports.

Please quote my words where I said, or even implied, that leadership doesn't matter. I'll wait. Thanks.
 

fatbeard

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I too remember when David Ross' leadership kept the Cubs from getting swept in the 2015 NLCS and propelled them on to win the World Series.

Oh wait...
 

beckdawg

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I've specifically stated the Cubs had a poorly constructed roster at the start of the season and it's been extremely evident in the playoffs. You keep making posts that distract.

1. Perhaps you can't have a discussion about it, because it appears all you have are numbers. I've stated this repeatedly and you don't get it. Numbers don't play the game. If numbers played the game, Epstein would be a robotic GM/Pres. He's even admitted that numbers don't tell the whole story of a player, but here you are arguing something else.

2. I'm sorry you can't measure it.

I've already explained this. I'm not rehashing it to someone being deliberately obtuse in order to try to win an argument.

Let's see. With Fowler, Cubs won the World Series. Without Fowler, Cubs are looking more like a team that will be swept out of the NLCS. That's the only objective data that matters in the end.

Based upon the numbers you provided, the Nats should have beaten the Cubs. Whoops!

I'm honestly not trying to be a dick here or "win an argument." I'm trying to understand your points. Seriously that's all I'm trying to do here. What's confusing to me is you seem to be saying multiple things and I'm not sure which is your true feeling. So, I think it breaks down to this. Are you A) Saying it was a mistake to not re-sign fowler and that's it B) saying they need to sign a lead off hitter or C) saying they need to sign a lead off hitter who is also a vet presence? If you're just saying A then I sorta get where you're coming from. Fowler is a good player and you'll remember I was one of the people supporting him in 2015 near the all-star break when people were ready to run him out of town. That being said, given the money he got it was probably always going to be unfeasible since as we look toward 2018's offseason the cubs have a lot of pitching holes and when he signed the cubs didn't know they were going to have Q for certain.

As for B & C, I don't ever remember instances of Fowler being cited as a club house leader. He was a great hitter but like I said I don't remember him being much of a leader. If you're making the argument that the cubs lack leadership from 2016 to this year to me that loss was Ross not Fowler. Again maybe I'm not understand what you're saying here but if you just think they are short on leadership I think a far more realistic scenario is they just find the next David Ross like back up catcher to put behind Contreras starting ~60% of the games. Avila and Rivera are both FA IIRC and Caratini seems to green to make the every day roster for 2018.

As for them just needing a lead off hitter, to me that's more a "wouldn't it be nice if" rather than a must have. I truly don't believe any other lead off hitter makes a difference in the 7 post season games. Unless it's someone who's literally homering multiple times in those 7 games he's likely just going to get on base and with the way Rizzo/Bryant have hit he'll get stranded. I know this because Jay has lead off a number of these games with a hit. The reason I brought up the whole 2017 runs/wRC+ thing was to show that even without an obvious lead off guy they were still a top 5 offense. So sure, it would be great to have a Dexter Fowler type hitter at the top of the line up. But if I had the choice between Dexter Fowler at $16.5 mil or Jay/Almora at $8.5 and a $8 mil set up guy right now I'd take the set up guy with what they have.

Frankly, I'd love if they found a way to sign say Lorenzo Cain as well as do all the things I said. But I honestly think that's entirely unlikely. They have ~$75 mil coming off their books. Assuming they re-sign Davis, replace Koji, Duensing, Rondon, back up C, Jay's replacement, and 2 starters you're easily looking at $60 mil+ and that's before you factor in arbitration for Russell/Hendricks/Bryant. Presumably they also would like to get below the luxury tax given how badly those rules hurt now. So, realistically only way I see them signing someone like Cain is if they either A) land Otani by some miracle or B) find a way to move Heyward or Zobrist. If they could find someone to take on Zobrist's 2 years $29 mil I'd be thrilled. Can't imagine anyone takes on Heyward's deal however.
 

anotheridiot

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This has nothing to do with Fowler. He was a leadoff man trying to hit the ball out of the park. He is a below average fielder who found a niche here.

What makes no sense now is not moving Bryant or Rizzo around in the order.

I bought into Heyward when Fowler was leaving and they got the centerfielder for a few years, but they never pressured Heyward to a tough spot in the batting order. I know he is not doing much now, but his foul balls are coming off that bat around 107 mph. They pressure the kids but not the 25 million dollar man.

No faith in Almora, but had him leading off last series. Happ was not given a shot yet either, but you will start Jay in Right field?

Its going to be a 0-0 game as against Darvish. No small ball, you are hoping Schwarber, Baez, Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Contrares or Baez goes deep.

I would not be surprised to see Avila in the game though, even if they put Contrares in left. I think part of the bullpens issues is stopping for contrares to have a meeting.

Maybe that backup catcher can be the difference in turning the series around again.
 

beckdawg

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What makes no sense now is not moving Bryant or Rizzo around in the order.

That's an interesting point I hadn't considered. Weren't the cubs batting Schwarber/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras 2-5 prior to Contreras getting hurt? I suppose Schwarber hasn't been playing a ton but I recall they were really grooving during that time.
 

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100% agree with those saying trade Scwharber to the AL....
This team's Achilles heel this year is bullpen (other than closer). I said time and again it will prevent them from winning the pennant.

We also need another starter (Lackey is gone and I don't think we resign Arrieta)....I would be ok with trying to get Lance Lynn.

Thoughts?
 

millerjg01

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I think the dirty little secret is that Joe Maddon sucks at managing the lineup/pitching changes/in game strategy.

The man is masterful in the clubhouse, masterful at getting guys in the right frame of mind to play, to win, to overcome obstacles, etc etc etc. He is one of the best at those things. He also gives a really good presser and is great at not putting blame/undue pressure on guys who just choked a game away (cough, Edwards, cough cough). But his in game tactics suck and I can't stand his line up cards.
 

beckdawg

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100% agree with those saying trade Scwharber to the AL....
This team's Achilles heel this year is bullpen (other than closer). I said time and again it will prevent them from winning the pennant.

We also need another starter (Lackey is gone and I don't think we resign Arrieta)....I would be ok with trying to get Lance Lynn.

Thoughts?

Give the year Lynn had he's probably going to be too pricey for the cubs but I'd be cool if they got him for less than I'm imagining he goes. If you got him on a Shark like deal I'd probably be cool with that but given the other options out there I'm guessing he gets paid more than he's worth.
 

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