Put Some Money On It: Our best bets for NFL Week 4

With the changes that have been made in regards to gambling on sporting events, more and more fans enjoy putting a few dollars on a game or two during football season. Because of this, I’m here to help you win some money with the best picks each week of the NFL season.

Going forward, every Friday, we will have a post on three betting plays we believe look good. 

With the three plays, we’ll have a preview on the Bears game, another game that looks like easy money, and our dog of the week. Here’s a free tip, something you won’t find very often in the sports betting industry. This blog is all about the OPINIONS of a writer and how the reader responds. 

Personally, I work as a professional handicapper and analyst for a gambling website. I enjoy the opportunity to write as more of a journalist with ChiCity Sports. Don’t read something I write and make things difficult for your family financially. That’s not entertainment. It’s also not smart. Let’s roll.

Minnesota (+2) at Chicago

Oddshark.com has Bovada giving the Minnesota Vikings two points in this game. After three weeks of the season, the Vikings are putting up an average of 26 points per game while holding opponents to 15.7. They’ve been able to tally up 361 yards per game, 167.3 through the air and a buck 93 on the ground. 

The Vikings have played solid defense this season. They have allowed opponents to move the ball for 251 yards passing and 101.7 rushing. Mitch Trubisky has had a tough enough time after three games as it is. It’s not going to get any easier this week.

The Bears are scoring 16.7 points per game. They have one of the stingiest defenses in the league, only giving up 13. The offense has been good for 193 passing yards while running for 96.3. On the defensive side of the ball, Chicago gives up 275 through the air. They have been lights out against the run, holding opposing offenses to just 68.7 yards per game. 

Because Trubisky hasn’t given me a reason to believe he can score when needed, I’m staying away from the spread on this one. Maybe that will be different next week, but right now I simply work too hard for my money. 

However, the total staying under 38 points looks good in this matchup. Both of these offenses have issues and they’ve been very difficult to score against on the defensive side of the ball. Here are a few trends to back me up:

  • The total has been under in seven of Chicago’s previous eight games.
  • The total has been under in 11 of Chicago’s last 15 games against Minnesota.
  • The total has been under in four of Chicago’s previous five at home.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Pittsburgh 

With the game in Pittsburgh, the experts in Vegas are giving the Bengals 3.5 points in this matchup. They’ve struggled to find the end zone this season, scoring just 18 points per game. Cinci puts up an average of 368 total yards, 326.3 passing, and 41.7 rushing.

On defense, they give their opponents 418.7 total yards. They have allowed teams to throw the ball for 250 yards while running for 168.7. They lost 41-17 at Buffalo, 41-17 against San Francisco, and 21-20 in Seattle.

Betting trends for this game:

  • The Bengals are 6-1 ATS their last seven games.
  • 6-0 ATS their last six games on the road.
  • 5-0 ATS their last five against the AFC

As bad as those stats look, Pittsburgh’s aren’t much better. The Stealers score only 16.3 points per game while giving up 28.3. They’ve moved the ball for 276.3 total yards per contest, 212.3 passing with only 64 on the ground.  Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to stop anything on defense. It’s a good thing they’re playing Cincinnati. The Stealers give up 316.7 passing yards and 139.3 on the run. 

Mason Rudolph had his moments last week in San Francisco. He completed 14 of 27 passes with 174 yards and two touchdowns. But he also threw an interception in this game I think he’ll do much better this week with the home crowd behind him.

Yes, JuJu Smith-Schuster will be his man. But look for tight end Vance McDonald to have a big game. 

Betting trends for the Steelers:

  • The Steelers are 3-6 ATS in their previous nine games.
  • 2-6 ATS their last eight games in September.

I see the Stealers getting the win here, simply because the game’s in Pittsburgh. That being said, I don’t like them covering the spread. They win, but it’s going to be close. I’m taking Cincy and 3.5 points for my underdog of the week.

Kansas City (-6.5) at Detroit

The Chiefs come into this game both undefeated on the season and 3-0 ATS. They have found the endzone for an average of 33.7 points per game this season while only giving up 21.3.

Offensively, Kansas City has moved the ball for 398.3 passing yards per game with 94.7 on the ground. On defense, they’ve given opponents 409.3 total yards, 271.7 throwing the ball and 137.3 rushing. They have impressive wins in both Jacksonville and Oakland and were able to hang on for the win against the Baltimore Ravens last week at home. 

The 94 rushing yards they have per game isn’t exactly impressive. That being said, against Baltimore last week, LeSean McCoy averaged over six yards per carry. I think that continues again in Detroit. When you throw in productive games from both Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce, this one has the potential to quickly get out of hand.

Some trends for Kansas City in this game:

  • Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in the last six games.
  • 6-1 ATS last seven against Detroit.
  • 10-0 ATS their previous 10 games in September.

Without a loss after three weeks, Detroit is getting some attention. They have wins against Philidelphia and the Charges and finished with a tie in the season opener against Arizona. They’ve been good for 22.3 points per game on offense while giving up 20.3.

They have averaged 277 passing yards per game with 98.7 on the ground. Defensively they allow opponents to toss the ball for 286.7 while rushing for 125.3. As I mentioned earlier, I think McCoy could have some success, here. 

So far this season, Kenny Golladay has been the go-to man for Matthew Stafford with at least eight more targets than anyone else. That being said, he hasn’t been Detroit’s most productive receiver. I look for that to change this week. I just don’t think it will be enough to get the win or cover the spread. I’m taking Kansas City -6.5 in this one.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *