It was a tough week last week if you followed along. I ended up finishing 1-2 with my NFL picks. The score on the Bears game stayed under, I had that picked. The Chiefs came up just short against the spread, and I’m never taking Cinci again, regardless of how many points they get.
I have three more picks this week and the goal is to be at least .500 after Monday night’s game. We have the same format again this week. A pick on the Bears game, a matchup that looks like easy money, and my underdog of the week. Let’s roll.
Chicago (-5.5) vs. Oakland
I decided to count on the Bears defense last week keeping the score low and it paid off. This week, I’m liking Chicago to cover the points. Chase Daniel will be starting at quarterback, Taylor Gabriel is out, and Roquan Smith is questionable for the game across the pond.
Here’s the thing. I like this Bears offense much better with Daniel under center. I’ve been saying all year Chicago is relying too much on the pass and needs to start pounding the ball on the ground. When Mitchell Trubisky went down, that was my first thought. “Trubisky is out. Maybe Matt Naggy will run the ball now.”
Then, Daniel came out and averaged more yards per completion for the game than Trubisky’s number for the season. I still think the Bears need to be running more and I believe that happens this week.
Defensively, Chicago is straight up nasty. Oakland has had success running the ball this year, but it’s not going to happen this week. Chicago only gives up 61.5 rushing yards a game with 11.3 points. I’ve got them by 14 here, more than enough to cover.
- Chicago is 5-1 ATS the last six following a SU win.
- Chicago is 8-2 ATS the last 10 following an ATS win.
- Oakland is 1-6 ATS last seven after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in previous game.
- Oakland is 1-5 ATS last six after scoring more than 30 points previous game.
New England (-16) vs. Washington
Guess which one of my picks look like easy money on paper? No, this isn’t my underdog of the week. The Buffalo Bills played New England tough last week. Because of that, I see Tom Brady coming out this here with something to prove.
I’m by no means a Patriots fan. But I do follow football closely. I can’t remember seeing Brady with this strong of a defense to play with. They only give up 6.8 points a game and hold opposing offenses to just 61 yards on the ground.
For Washington, they are going with Colt McCoy as the starting quarterback but it doesn’t matter. They’re only a serious threat to the Miami Dolphins concerning the first pick in next year’s draft. The Skins only put up 16.5 points per game and aren’t even running the ball for 50 yards a game.
Like I said, it doesn’t matter who they play at quarterback. I just hope they don’t play the rookie and jack up his career. I look for New England to win big on the road here.
- New England is 15-3 ATS last 18 week five games.
- Washington is 1-4 ATS last five following a SU loss.
- Washington is 1-4 ATS last five games.
- Washington is 0-4 ATS last four games at home.
Cleveland (+3.5) vs. San Francisco
I hesitated to pick the Browns as my underdog of the week last weekend and rolled with Cincinnati. I like the Browns, I just didn’t have enough confidence in them. There’s no doubt this week. No, they might not get the win. San Francisco is tough at home. But I like Cleveland with the added points.
I’m not going to back this with a ton of stats. Here’s where I’m coming from. Finally, there was expectations in Cleveland before the season kicked off. There were many people putting money on them to win the Super Bowl. Things just weren’t clicking the first few games.
There’s a ton of talent on the Browns. They have players who have a lot of pride. Last week, they finally got a taste of what they’ve been waiting for. That was a very impressive win on the road against a division rival.
This is when we find out if the Browns are for real or not. This is where they show if they could do anything later on in the playoffs. No, I’m not calling my bookie and putting money on Cleveland to win it all. I do like them winning ATS this week, though.
- Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS last seven on the road vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cleveland is 4-0 ATS last four road games.
- San Francisco is 2-10 ATS after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards the previous game.
- San Francisco is 0-6 ATS last six games following a bye week.