Continuing our week of first round playoff match-up previews for the Chicago Bulls, today we’ll be looking at a team that made quite the splash at the trade deadline:
Philadelphia 76ers
Before a blockbuster deal that sent out Ben Simmons and brought back James Harden, the 76ers were at risk of wasting a year of Joel Embiid’s prime. Philadelphia was 32-22 at the time of the trade, but weren’t being viewed as a real contender.
It’s safe to say that perception has changed. By swapping Simmons for Harden, president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has paired Embiid with the best teammate he’s ever had. The 76ers are 11-6 since the trade and now have the fifth-best betting odds to win the title.
Embiid has been one of the best stories of the NBA season, assembling a historic campaign, keeping neck and neck with Nikola Jokic in the MVP race, and playing at a high enough level to keep the Simmons absence/drama from sinking Philadelphia’s season. Embiid has averaged 29.9 points and 11.4 rebounds on 48.9% FG/36.4% 3FG/81.6% FT shooting splits and, perhaps most importantly, he’s remained healthy enough to stay on pace to eclipse his previous career-high in games played (62).
As for Harden, despite being named to his 10th all-star game in February, his best years might be behind him.
His field goal percentage (41.6%) is the lowest since his rookie year, while his 3-point percentage (33.7%) is the worst of his entire career. He’s shooting just 53.2% on attempts less than five feet from the rim, one of the worst marks in the league. Considering the cost of acquiring Harden (which included Seth Curry and two 1st round picks), the fact that he will soon be due for a massive contract, along with his postseason struggles, Morey might experience some buyer’s remorse if Philadelphia can’t make a deep playoff run.
All that said, Harden is still a top-20ish player in the league and the 76ers are 8th in the league in net rating (4.0) since the trade. In that same time frame, Philadelphia has been next to impossible to keep off the charity stripe, attempting a whopping 28.9 free throws per game. The 76ers are +98 in the 422 minutes in which Harden and Embiid have shared the floor.
The Bulls dropped all four contests to the 76ers this year, and Joel Embiid is now 11-0 against Chicago in his career. In their most recent match-up, a 121-106 76ers win in Philadelphia on March 7, Embiid was an absolute menace, finishing with 43 points, 14 rebounds, three blocks, and two steals, shooting 15-27 from the field and earning 16 free throws.
Embiid has been a problem for just about every team in the league this season, but continues to torment the Bulls in particular.
In this year’s four regular season meetings, he averaged 32.8 points and 12.3 rebounds on 52.9%/47.1%/88.2% shooting splits. At 7-foot, and 280 pounds, he’s simply too big for Nikola Vucevic to handle in the post. In a playoff series, Chicago would be forced to do anything possible (doubling on post-ups, stunting on pick-and-pops, etc.) to get the ball out of Embiid’s hands and make others beat them. Tyrese Maxey (who is having an outstanding season) is the only 76er shooting over 40% on 3FG, so the Bulls might be able to get away with sending extra defenders at Embiid.
In the March 7 game, multiple defenders spent time guarding Harden, including Zach LaVine and Javonte Green, holding him to 5-15 shooting. Should the two teams meet in the postseason, Ayo Dosunmo and Alex Caruso would likely be dispatched for long stretches to hound Harden.
Philadelphia is 8th overall in defensive rating at 109.8 and has remained close to that level since the Harden trade. Although Matisse Thybulle and Embiid are elite at that end, as both made All-Defensive Second Team last season, Harden is a turnstile and will be hunted in the playoffs. If this match-up does indeed materialize, look for LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to drag Harden into as much action as possible.
Though the 76ers would have home-court advantage, the Bulls could take solace in Philadelphia’s pedestrian 21-17 record at the Wells Fargo Center this year. Chicago couldn’t find a way to beat the 76ers during the regular season but might have a chance for revenge when it matters most.
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