Review of Draft Capital Spent Since 2017

[DanTown]

This isn't a thread that is meant to talk about specific trades, draft picks, or anything else and debate the merits of them on an individual basis. This is simply evaluating the Bears for what they've gotten out of the past three drafts. So in essence, we're talking 21 draft picks (getting a 2017 4th from Buffalo; gave up a 2017 6th for Khari Lee). Ok, here it is

Starters
QB - Mitchell Trubisky
S - Eddie Jackson
DE - Khalil Mack
LB - Roquan Smith
C - James Daniels
RB - James Montgomery

High Level Subs
RB - Tarik Cohen

Roster Depth
TE - Adam Sheehan
DE - Bilal Nichols
WR - Anthony Miller
LB - Joel Iyiegbuniwe
WR - Javon Wims
WR - Riley Ridley
CB - Duke Shelley
RB - Kerrith Whyte Jr.
CB - Stephen Denmark

Not on roster
G - Jordan Morgan
DE - Kylie Fitts

Future Picks Traded
2020 #1 (Mack)
2020 #3 (Mack)
2020 #4 (Montgomery)

Picks Acquired
2020 #2 (Oakland - Mack)
2020 #5/6 (Philadelphia - Howard)

Review of trades
2017
- Traded #3, #67, #111 in 2017; #70 in 2018 for Mitchell Trubisky (#2)
- Traded #36, #221 in 2017 for #45 (Adam Sheehan), #119, #197 (Essentially Eddie Jackson) in 2017, #115 (Joel Iyiegbuniwe) in 2018
- Traded #119, #197 for Eddie Jackson (#112)

2018
- Traded #105, #56 in 2019 for Anthony Miller (#51)

2019
- Traded #87, #162, 2020 #4 for David Montgomery (#73), Duke Shelley (#205)

Review
This isn't a "let's shit on Pace" thread because it's obvious that some draft picks/trades of picks has worked out fantastic but this is just an overview of the past three drafts and where the Bears sit in terms of future cheap, roster talent. It also speaks to how well Pace is or isn't doing at hitting on picks. There was a lot of discussion a few years ago that Pace had shown a knack for hitting on late picks that his aggressive nature would be washed out by "out drafting" his spots but as the sample has grown, Pace's ability to "hit" on picks looks far more normal than something bankable.

 

[Visionman]

If a decent number of those young depth players develop into high level subs and even starters, it will be a lot better than just average. And looking at the early return, I'd say the odds are in favor of that happening...

 

[Noonthirtyjoe]

Much better then what other Chicago GM's have done.

 

[Black Rainbow]

We all knew that the way Pace went about building this roster, trading up to get his guy, if his guy doesn't work out - your pretty well screwed.

Also, I wasn't so crazy about the Mack trade because I felt this is something you do if you're only missing one piece. We knew that Trubisky could potentially be a big problem if he doesn't take the next step - that's exactly what has happened.

If the offense doesn't start putting points on the board, it's going to be hard getting excited about this team. We are going to have a long couple of years wishing he had those draft picks.

Don't get me wrong, I love that Mack is on the team and he's a lot of fun to watch. He instantly changed the defense from top ten to top 3 or so. But to me the timing was wrong. If the o-line continues to regress...it's going to get ugly before it gets better.

 

[mattb78]

I sound like a broken record but Pace has transformed the roster from a bottom feeder into a winning team.

I think this team is set for a few years. Even if we have a tougher year than expected this season, a free agent lineman or 2 could generate the spark we need next season.

Time will certainly tell. I think if the O-line can play better and we start running the ball with some consistency the whole team is going to look better. More ball control, time of possession, a rested defense, etc.

 

[pinkfloydster]

This isn't a thread that is meant to talk about specific trades, draft picks, or anything else and debate the merits of them on an individual basis. This is simply evaluating the Bears for what they've gotten out of the past three drafts. So in essence, we're talking 21 draft picks (getting a 2017 4th from Buffalo; gave up a 2017 6th for Khari Lee). Ok, here it is

Starters
QB - Mitchell Trubisky
S - Eddie Jackson
DE - Khalil Mack
LB - Roquan Smith
C - James Daniels
RB - James Montgomery

High Level Subs
RB - Tarik Cohen

Roster Depth
TE - Adam Sheehan
DE - Bilal Nichols
WR - Anthony Miller
LB - Joel Iyiegbuniwe
WR - Javon Wims
WR - Riley Ridley
CB - Duke Shelley
RB - Kerrith Whyte Jr.
CB - Stephen Denmark

Not on roster
G - Jordan Morgan
DE - Kylie Fitts

Future Picks Traded
2020 #1 (Mack)
2020 #3 (Mack)
2020 #4 (Montgomery)

Picks Acquired
2020 #2 (Oakland - Mack)
2020 #5/6 (Philadelphia - Howard)

Review of trades
2017
- Traded #3, #67, #111 in 2017; #70 in 2018 for Mitchell Trubisky (#2)
- Traded #36, #221 in 2017 for #45 (Adam Sheehan), #119, #197 (Essentially Eddie Jackson) in 2017, #115 (Joel Iyiegbuniwe) in 2018
- Traded #119, #197 for Eddie Jackson (#112)

2018
- Traded #105, #56 in 2019 for Anthony Miller (#51)

2019
- Traded #87, #162, 2020 #4 for David Montgomery (#73), Duke Shelley (#205)

Review
This isn't a "let's shit on Pace" thread because it's obvious that some draft picks/trades of picks has worked out fantastic but this is just an overview of the past three drafts and where the Bears sit in terms of future cheap, roster talent. It also speaks to how well Pace is or isn't doing at hitting on picks. There was a lot of discussion a few years ago that Pace had shown a knack for hitting on late picks that his aggressive nature would be washed out by "out drafting" his spots but as the sample has grown, Pace's ability to "hit" on picks looks far more normal than something bankable.

Understanding how the Bears develop UDFAs adds a little more context.

Successes currently on the roster...RRH

Hopefuls...Rashad Coward and Kevin Toliver

Borderline Contributor...Ben Braunecker and Isaiah Irving

Remains to be seen...Josh Woods and Alex Bars

Not too shabby IMHO

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

We all knew that the way Pace went about building this roster, trading up to get his guy, if his guy doesn't work out - your pretty well screwed.

Also, I wasn't so crazy about the Mack trade because I felt this is something you do if you're only missing one piece. We knew that Trubisky could potentially be a big problem if he doesn't take the next step - that's exactly what has happened.

If the offense doesn't start putting points on the board, it's going to be hard getting excited about this team. We are going to have a long couple of years wishing he had those draft picks.

Don't get me wrong, I love that Mack is on the team and he's a lot of fun to watch. He instantly changed the defense from top ten to top 3 or so. But to me the timing was wrong. If the o-line continues to regress...it's going to get ugly before it gets better.

You don’t get to pick and choose when generational talents become available. If you want him you gotta go get him when he’s available or somebody else will.

 

[sevvy]

I'm hoping that RB James Montgomery works out. His brother David is getting wrecked, because we have no oline and our coach doesn't know how to run the ball to save his fucking life.

 

[Les Grossman]

We all knew that the way Pace went about building this roster, trading up to get his guy, if his guy doesn't work out - your pretty well screwed.

Also, I wasn't so crazy about the Mack trade because I felt this is something you do if you're only missing one piece. We knew that Trubisky could potentially be a big problem if he doesn't take the next step - that's exactly what has happened.

If the offense doesn't start putting points on the board, it's going to be hard getting excited about this team. We are going to have a long couple of years wishing he had those draft picks.

Don't get me wrong, I love that Mack is on the team and he's a lot of fun to watch. He instantly changed the defense from top ten to top 3 or so. But to me the timing was wrong. If the o-line continues to regress...it's going to get ugly before it gets better.

You can't magically make good on every position at the same time. Most of it is luck to be frank.

And what if Trusbisky did take the next step but you didn't trade for Mack? Things just don't line up all neatly like that. You have to gamble.

You also never know, what if you have a Kyle Allen/Minshew like late round QB backup that takes the reigns over?

 

[Black Rainbow]

You can't magically make good on every position at the same time. Most of it is luck to be frank.

And what if Trusbisky did take the next step but you didn't trade for Mack? Things just don't line up all neatly like that. You have to gamble.

You also never know, what if you have a Kyle Allen/Minshew like late round QB backup that takes the reigns over?

Don't get me wrong, I like that Mack is on the team. But those were the questions I had as soon as it went down. Just my opinion, but two first round picks is only something I would give up for a younger, proven QB.

 

[Penny Traitor]

Much better then what other Chicago GM's have done.

LoL

Going back only halfway through the last hundred seasons...I would still put Finks, Vainisi and Angelo in front of Pace.

People really undervalue what Jerry Angelo did in his "rebuild" years.

 

[Les Grossman]

Don't get me wrong, I like that Mack is on the team. But those were the questions I had as soon as it went down. Just my opinion, but two first round picks is only something I would give up for a younger, proven QB.

A younger, proven QB? That sounds nice. but how does that actually happen? Young, proven QBs are NEVER available without major injury concerns.

Your questions are moot because the Bears were executing their plan, they spent high draft capital on a young QB who they thought would be the franchise QB and then they surrounded that QB with weapons and an offensive coach. They then capped it off with Mack. I think that was a great plan. Has it worked out like they planned? No. But that's hindsight.

Again, it seems like your whole questions/criticism is about hindsight.

Furthermore, in hindsight, the price CHI paid for the Mack trade seems like a steal with what other lesser players are getting traded for this season.

I just don't seem how anyone can criticize the Mack trade on any level really.

 

[Black Rainbow]

A younger, proven QB? That sounds nice. but how does that actually happen? Young, proven QBs are NEVER available without major injury concerns.

Your questions are moot because the Bears were executing their plan, they spent high draft capital on a young QB who they thought would be the franchise QB and then they surrounded that QB with weapons and an offensive coach. They then capped it off with Mack. I think that was a great plan. Has it worked out like they planned? No. But that's hindsight.

Again, it seems like your whole questions/criticism is about hindsight.

Furthermore, in hindsight, the price CHI paid for the Mack trade seems like a steal with what other lesser players are getting traded for this season.

I just don't seem how anyone can criticize the Mack trade on any level really.

Yes, a younger proven QB, which is so rare they would be available, hence teams shouldn't really trade two firsts for anything.

And it's not hindsight on my part. I posted these concerns immediately after the trade. At that point I had already reached the conclusion that Trubisky wasn't going to be special. It seems so risky to me.

And I'm not complaining like it's a top concern for me...we got a great player out of it. But how nice would it be to have a couple of firsts now that our o-line is struggling? You have ppl on the board who believe that no QB or RB can be successful here because of the line. (I don't necessarily agree with that...but i'd be nice to have more picks.) Guys will continue to get injured and regress...we need picks.

 

[Les Grossman]

Yes, a younger proven QB, which is so rare they would be available, hence teams shouldn't really trade two firsts for anything.

And it's not hindsight on my part. I posted these concerns immediately after the trade. At that point I had already reached the conclusion that Trubisky wasn't going to be special. It seems so risky to me.

And I'm not complaining like it's a top concern for me...we got a great player out of it. But how nice would it be to have a couple of firsts now that our o-line is struggling? You have ppl on the board who believe that no QB or RB can be successful here because of the line. (I don't necessarily agree with that...but i'd be nice to have more picks.) Guys will continue to get injured and regress...we need picks.

We likely wouldn't have even spent those 1st round picks on OL anyway. We just drafted James Daniels in the 2nd round last year. The OL was not really bad unit this year, so those picks wouldn't have been spent elsewhere already.

I get your point, but at some point you have to pull the trigger and make something happen with the team and the roster. You can't just wait year after year hoping the talent lines up to make a good team.

First round picks are kind of overrated. People act like a 1st rounder is guaranteed to be a special player or something.

 

[Black Rainbow]

We likely wouldn't have even spent those 1st round picks on OL anyway. We just drafted James Daniels in the 2nd round last year. The OL was not really bad unit this year. so those picks wouldn't have been spent elsewhere already.

I get your point, but at some point you have to pull the trigger and make something happen with the team and the roster. You can't just wait year after year hoping the talent lines up to make a good team.

First round picks are kind of overrated. People act like a 1st rounder is guaranteed to be a special player or something.

Well hopefully Trubisky comes back and steps his game up. That's really the only chance we have this year and maybe next. My point is NFL teams constantly have players regress and get injured and it's tough to change things when you've traded away your draft supply. That's how you get stuck.

Trying to figure out how the picks would have been used is pointless. It kinda reminds me of people justifying the Cutler trade with "Angelo would have blown the picks anyway, so it doesn't matter." I just like having the option of bringing fresh talent in every year.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Much better then what other Chicago GM's have done.

Talk about setting the bar low.

 

[Mdbearz]

You can't magically make good on every position at the same time. Most of it is luck to be frank.

And what if Trusbisky did take the next step but you didn't trade for Mack? Things just don't line up all neatly like that. You have to gamble.

You also never know, what if you have a Kyle Allen/Minshew like late round QB backup that takes the reigns over?

In the upcoming draft, you have to wonder if Pace will take a QB anywhere in the draft. We are very limited on the picks to add talent, so I do not see a lot of opportunity to trade up, so if he did take a QB to develop it would likely be a later round.

Obviously we need to see how Trubisky finishes, but unless it is dramatic increase, you have to think that you need to take another bite of the apple, because Chase and Bray are not the future?

Let's play GM and if a QB you liked was dropping to the bottom of the first round, would you use both 2nd rounders to go get him?

I think the position is important enough that you would be crazy not to, but of course that means you would have to attack TE and O-line either in the late rounds with the few picks you have left or FA.

 

[Noonthirtyjoe]

Talk about setting the bar low.

Better then other GMs is low? I thought it was high. Who knew.

 

[Noonthirtyjoe]

LoL

Going back only halfway through the last hundred seasons...I would still put Finks, Vainisi and Angelo in front of Pace.

People really undervalue what Jerry Angelo did in his "rebuild" years.

Finks yes, Vainisi No, Angelo hell to the no.

 

[Visionman]

In the upcoming draft, you have to wonder if Pace will take a QB anywhere in the draft. We are very limited on the picks to add talent, so I do not see a lot of opportunity to trade up, so if he did take a QB to develop it would likely be a later round.

Obviously we need to see how Trubisky finishes, but unless it is dramatic increase, you have to think that you need to take another bite of the apple, because Chase and Bray are not the future?

Let's play GM and if a QB you liked was dropping to the bottom of the first round, would you use both 2nd rounders to go get him?

I think the position is important enough that you would be crazy not to, but of course that means you would have to attack TE and O-line either in the late rounds with the few picks you have left or FA.

Let's see how the OL shakes out the rest of this season before we assume we're going to need a top draft pick (or 2) used there. And a decent TE can be signed as a FA...if the young guys don't develop...