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I want Shurmur, because I believe Nagy needs an OC with the experience and guts to say "Listen, this aint going to work. I'm sure of it" on some of his more out there ideas, and to reign him in when he starts to get "Madden-esque" pass heavy in his play calling that he does in response to early struggles in games.
I believe a new/unproven OC will try to work around these issues, for fear of rocking the boat and also desire to prove himself, where a veteran like Shurmur will identify these flaws for flaws and try to mitigate them. I could be wrong, but that's my reasoning.
Shurmur would be a great hire if the Bears could pull it off. I'd be shocked. If Nagy hires another strong personnality who's done it before that would show maturity. If he hire's another perceived yes man, then we may be in for the same year next year.
The good news is that they identified the main underlying issue, in my opinion, the running game and are blowing it up.