2019-2020 Off-Season Thread

[DanTown]

So the purpose of this thread is not to have some large discussion about the future of the team and forget about the current team but that I think there should be a place to talk about the potential transactions the Cubs will face, including the future of the manager. Obviously we can wait and see but if Castellanos goes on to hit like .315/.385/.525 over the last two months, I feel there should be a place people can discuss signing him to an extension and not just making the series threads turn into a future discussion.

The things to think about

- The Cubs will have roughly $54.5 million in 2019 salaries that will expire with zero option/commitments to 2020 (Hamels, Zobrist, CIshek, Strop, Barnette, Cedeno, Kintzler, Castellanos)
- The Cubs certainly committed salary without accounting for any arb guys (so yes to Rizzo, Quitana options and no to Brach) is $119.5 million

- The Cubs will have the following options to decide on that are NOT included above
1. Morrow for $3 million to walk or $12 million to stay
2. Holland for $500k to walk or $7 million to stay
3. Phelps has an option based on how many appearances ($1 million if under 30, $3 million if 30-39; currently at 17)
4. Kendall Graveman has zero to walk or $3 million to stay

The Cubs will then have the following players are various levels of arb

Arb 2 - Bryant (12.9 in 2019), Baez (5.2), Schwarber (3.39), Russell (3.4)
Arb 1 - Contreras (probably in the 5 range), Almora (probably in the low 3 range)
Pre-Arb 3 (roughly $675K) - Happ, Kemp, Caratini, Ryan, Rea
Pre-Arb 2 (roughly $600k) - Zagunis, Rosario
Sub 1 year service (probably $550k) - Maples, Wick, Wieck, Mills, Norwood, Underwood, Evans, Garcia

That leaves the following as super likely 40 man rostered players come this winter

C (2) - Contreras, Caratini
IF (5) - Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Garcia, Descalso
OF (4) - Heyward, Almora, Schwarber, Zagunis
IF/OF (2) - Happ, Kemp
SP (5) - Darvish, Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Azolay
RP (6) - Kimbrel, Ryan, Maples, Wieck, Phelps, Rosario,
P (7) - Chatwood, Rea, Mills, Norwood, Underwood, Rosario, Steele

Leaves 9 spots (includes no Russell) and the following are the Cubs notable rule 5 eligible players

P - Thomas Hatch, Duncan Robinson, Tyson Miller, Dakota Mekkes

So the five biggest roster questions (before getting to FA and who to sign/add) to me are

1. What do you do with Castellanos in terms of potentially resigning him
2. Are you going to offer Russell arbitration knowing that he will be just under $4 million at the minimum
3. Are their guys who would take a Bote type deal that are in that pre-arb range (Caratini, Kemp, Ryan would be the most logical)
4. Are their guys who would take a Hendricks type buy out a few Arb years/FA years type deal (Contreras, Baez would be the first to start, maybe Schwarber based on price)
5. Who, if any, will the Cubs protect in the rule 5

 

[SilenceS]

Ummm, we are 1 game out of first on August 2nd. Blow the effer up. Trade the core. Trade em now. Bryant=sucks. Baez=sucks. Contreras=Who?. Rizzo=most inconsistent player in the league.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

LOL at this thread on August 1st.

 

[Parade_Rain]

They are 15 games back of the Dodgers. Of course the Cubs could magically get hot in September, but I think it is fair to discuss the off-season. If you don't want to win WS Championships and are happy to sneak in with questionable rosters and lose right away, the forum has gone back to supporting the lovable losers mentality.

 

[DanTown]

One, it's not as if us discussing the off-season in one thread means we can't discuss the current team in another.

Two, the entire point of this thread is to maintain a conversation about future transactions and roster moves like we did the past two months with the trade deadline.

Three, this thread does not mean that I'm giving up on the team or it's future chances. This thread has no actual bearing nor does it imply to know how the 2019 Cubs season ends.

 

[DanTown]

Ummm, we are 1 game out of first on August 2nd. Blow the effer up. Trade the core. Trade em now. Bryant=sucks. Baez=sucks. Contreras=Who?. Rizzo=most inconsistent player in the league.

Did you even read any of the post above it?

 

[SilenceS]

Did you even read any of the post above it?

Yes, I was just shit posting to join in with the crowd

 

[DanTown]

Yes, I was just shit posting to join in with the crowd

I will say, the guy who said the Cubs could end up with 25 of the top 100 prospects in baseball by trading Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Contreras, etc was really on point.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

This thread has no actual bearing nor does it imply to know how the 2019 Cubs season ends.

How could it?

I think its a bit hasty at this point to have any meaningful off-season talk, especially about the future of the manager which was specifically cited by you. I typically tend to be well behind the curve in this forum, so I guess this is just another case of my feeble mind saying "WTF?" and moving on. Have fun.

 

[CSF77]

I don't see a problem with this thread. Win or lose this will happen regardless.

 

[CSF77]

Kinda unrelated but interesting.

These scientists may have solved MLB's 'juiced' baseball problem

As home runs are hit at a record pace, experts at Washington State believe they may have found the 'smoking gun' to the juiced baseball issue.

amp.usatoday.com

 

[Rory Sparrow]

I don't see a problem with this thread. Win or lose this will happen regardless.

Good point. The offseason will happen regardless of the Cubs winning or losing. I thought if the Cubs won another World Series, the MLB would call it quits and everyone would stop playing baseball altogether because they'd think "how could we top this?"

I think its somewhat pointless to discuss offseason moves in the middle of the season in general, but particularly with this Cubs team. So much of its future direction is dependent on the remainder of the regular season and postseason.

I'll contribute that the Cubs should re-sign Castellanos because he is their only player who got a hit. Wow.

 

[CSF77]

Theo said that the team has been competitive every year and it didn't call for a overhaul. It called for a add and they went to the tax threshold.

Over all they did what they needed to do on their part.

The result is really on the players end.

 

[CSF77]

Good point. The offseason will happen regardless of the Cubs winning or losing. I thought if the Cubs won another World Series, the MLB would call it quits and everyone would stop playing baseball altogether because they'd think "how could we top this?"

I think its somewhat pointless to discuss offseason moves in the middle of the season in general, but particularly with this Cubs team. So much of its future direction is dependent on the remainder of the regular season and postseason.

I'll contribute that the Cubs should re-sign Castellanos because he is their only player who got a hit. Wow.

I'm on the side of offering Castellino a contract. He uses the whole park and that is something that they need more of. He should be pushed to LF and Schwarber's last 2 years traded to get a lead off.

I think that is the major need going in though. A legit lead off. That has been the constant lacking after 2016.

 

[DanTown]

Good point. The offseason will happen regardless of the Cubs winning or losing. I thought if the Cubs won another World Series, the MLB would call it quits and everyone would stop playing baseball altogether because they'd think "how could we top this?"

I think its somewhat pointless to discuss offseason moves in the middle of the season in general, but particularly with this Cubs team. So much of its future direction is dependent on the remainder of the regular season and postseason.

I'll contribute that the Cubs should re-sign Castellanos because he is their only player who got a hit. Wow.

This thread wasn't made solely because the discussion about anything of real substance should be today but it's something that will start to be had the closer we get to the off-season. Like I said, the only threads on the board were either series threads, prospects, or relating to the trade deadline. The purpose of this thread is that if you have an opinion of the future and you want to share it, go nuts.

The one pet peeve I have (especially on a board that doesn't create that many threads so it's not as if this is bumping other stuff out) is when people come into a thread and post about why this thread is stupid. Great, you don't want to talk about anything regarding the future of the team and roster until you want. But that will come at some day for you and when you want to say something, join in the conversation. Do two people having a conversation that doesn't impact or mention you really upset you that much?

 

[beckdawg]

I think they are going to need to consolidate some of their middle infield depth into a better player probably at 2B who can lead off. Way I look at the roster from a hitting perspective, SS 3B, 1B, CF(heyward) and C are pretty solidly filled. I still think Baez is really streaky but he obviously has his value. I also think Bote is probably staying around so you could conceivably move Bryant to RF as there's really not as many good RF hitters as their used to be. Currently there's 5 RF's with a 130+ wRC+.

As for LF, I still believe in Schwarber. His numbers don't look fantastic but he's got a .240 BABIP as compared to the .288 he had last year. If for the sake of argument you handed him a .280 BABIP right now he'd be looking at something like .262/.353/.512. That being said, probably need to protect him fairly hard against LHP by finding a short side platoon guy in the outfield.

So given all that, 2B seems the most likely place where you could reasonably add. Between Bote, Happ, Kemp, Russell, Descalso, Robel Garcia, Trent Giambrone, Zack Short, and hell you can even dig down to like Nico Hoerner..... cubs have way too much depth at 2B and really not enough quality. I'd still love to see them find a way to put together enough of those pieces and some prospects to land Lindor and move Baez to 2B. But regardless, they really need to move that depth into some more reliable every day players.

In terms of pitching, I'd offer Hamels the QO and pick up Q's option. Presumably Darvish also doesn't void the rest of his contract with his opt out. If Hamels accepts the QO, that's fine. If he doesn't presumably you give Chatwood and Alzolay the shot to win the 5th rotation slot. Overall the starting staff is good but not great going into 2020. They also have Kendall Graveman for that last spot too who is rehabbing.

Bullpen will need some work but having Kimbrel makes some of that easier. Kyle Ryan to me is a decent LH option though they will need another. In my eyes you give Brad Wieck and Danny Hultzen the shot to win that rather than spending big money. I mean if they wanna sign another guy like Xavier Cedeño was for depth and insurance fine but just wouldn't spend a ton of money cuz I like what Wieck and Hultzen could potentially be. Rowan Wick I think probably earns a job. He was great in AAA this year and has looked pretty good in his 10 or so innings in the majors. Kintzler Cishek and Strop I'd look to bring back depending on price.

Overall, I think the bullpen is going to skew a lot younger and wont have as man "names" but I really like some of the guys who don't have a ton of MLB experience. Wick and Ryan have been really good this year. Wieck/Hultzen/Mekkes and a few others in AAA I think could be legitimate relievers if given the chance. So, I don't want to see the front office throw a ton of money toward the bullpen. I'd rather they focus on locking up the young hitters and fixing the inconsistency issues the offense has with that money.

 

[Chicagosports89]

I will say, the guy who said the Cubs could end up with 25 of the top 100 prospects in baseball by trading Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Contreras, etc was really on point.

I’m not sure if this is sarcasm implying I’m stupid or actually agreeing. I’m not saying they should do that or that for a second I think they would, but I think you could rebuild the team within a year or two with even better depth if they did. I’d think between those 4 guys you’d probably get like 12-15 top 100’s and probably 4-6 top 50’s if possible from the interested teams. Am I wrong?

 

[CSF77]

I think they are going to need to consolidate some of their middle infield depth into a better player probably at 2B who can lead off. Way I look at the roster from a hitting perspective, SS 3B, 1B, CF(heyward) and C are pretty solidly filled. I still think Baez is really streaky but he obviously has his value. I also think Bote is probably staying around so you could conceivably move Bryant to RF as there's really not as many good RF hitters as their used to be. Currently there's 5 RF's with a 130+ wRC+.

As for LF, I still believe in Schwarber. His numbers don't look fantastic but he's got a .240 BABIP as compared to the .288 he had last year. If for the sake of argument you handed him a .280 BABIP right now he'd be looking at something like .262/.353/.512. That being said, probably need to protect him fairly hard against LHP by finding a short side platoon guy in the outfield.

So given all that, 2B seems the most likely place where you could reasonably add. Between Bote, Happ, Kemp, Russell, Descalso, Robel Garcia, Trent Giambrone, Zack Short, and hell you can even dig down to like Nico Hoerner..... cubs have way too much depth at 2B and really not enough quality. I'd still love to see them find a way to put together enough of those pieces and some prospects to land Lindor and move Baez to 2B. But regardless, they really need to move that depth into some more reliable every day players.

In terms of pitching, I'd offer Hamels the QO and pick up Q's option. Presumably Darvish also doesn't void the rest of his contract with his opt out. If Hamels accepts the QO, that's fine. If he doesn't presumably you give Chatwood and Alzolay the shot to win the 5th rotation slot. Overall the starting staff is good but not great going into 2020. They also have Kendall Graveman for that last spot too who is rehabbing.

Bullpen will need some work but having Kimbrel makes some of that easier. Kyle Ryan to me is a decent LH option though they will need another. In my eyes you give Brad Wieck and Danny Hultzen the shot to win that rather than spending big money. I mean if they wanna sign another guy like Xavier Cedeño was for depth and insurance fine but just wouldn't spend a ton of money cuz I like what Wieck and Hultzen could potentially be. Rowan Wick I think probably earns a job. He was great in AAA this year and has looked pretty good in his 10 or so innings in the majors. Kintzler Cishek and Strop I'd look to bring back depending on price.

Overall, I think the bullpen is going to skew a lot younger and wont have as man "names" but I really like some of the guys who don't have a ton of MLB experience. Wick and Ryan have been really good this year. Wieck/Hultzen/Mekkes and a few others in AAA I think could be legitimate relievers if given the chance. So, I don't want to see the front office throw a ton of money toward the bullpen. I'd rather they focus on locking up the young hitters and fixing the inconsistency issues the offense has with that money.

I could see Theo offering a contract to Castellino. After that pool up Russell, Happ and Schwarber and flip them.

I've stated that they should push Chatwood into Hamels vacated SP spot. Then push Alzolay into Edwards old role. Accually we might see in after he recovers still. Wick and Ryan have a keeper vibe. But they really need to have a balance. Few lefties and rightes that get both out. I believe that the 3 out min will come into effect next year so getting guys with a good pitch mix should be the adjenda this off season.

Mills makes a good 2 inning arm. Meekes I'm not sold on. Maples they need to cut. Failed project. And so on. Drop Morrow's opt and reinvest into a premier set up. Or trade for one with the list of trade chips above.

Now as a legit lead off. I've looked and the best OBA are middle of the order bats. Trout Bryant Yelch etc. It is kinda crazy in this generation where the best hitters are thunder sticks and speed is a non factor. 32 SB leads baseball from a sub .300 OBA player.

So IMO it might be worth sitting on Heyward as the lead off until Nico is MLB ready. There is not this golden answer to this question. Happ has far too much swing and miss to his game to be even concidered. Russell needs a new environment. Schwarber has been a failed project to date.

Now as far as Joe is concerned. I really think that he will move on to a new opertunity. They have had a great run but IMO they have fallen far short of their potential. What I mean is 2016 they won it when the Astroes and the Yankees were in transition. So they should have been ahead of them in the time line. But they went from WS CHAMP to squeaking by the Nat's to being slapped by the LAD then losing the Division to a weaker Brewers team. This year they are worse with the largest payroll yet and pending huge pay offs.

So that is another onlooking issue. Do you trade Bryant? He is having a good year numbers wise but do you as in us the viewer find him more valuable as a trade chip or as a long term extension?

I'm on the fence myself. Likeable. Great numbers. But he can just go ice cold. So IDK. If it came down to Baez vs Bryant staying and the other traded to bring back assets like the Yankees did. I guess it would depend on return. But forward thinking better to lock up Baez and send Boras' pending payday onto another team.

 

[DanTown]

I’m not sure if this is sarcasm implying I’m stupid or actually agreeing. I’m not saying they should do that or that for a second I think they would, but I think you could rebuild the team within a year or two with even better depth if they did. I’d think between those 4 guys you’d probably get like 12-15 top 100’s and probably 4-6 top 50’s if possible from the interested teams. Am I wrong?

You mean like the Marlins when they traded Yelich, Stanton, Ozuna, Remutalo, etc?

Top 50 guys aren’t sure things and you’d probably not get the true impact prospects that would make it worth it. Because you can still only play nine guys and I don’t believe in pitching prospects.

 

[Chicagosports89]

You mean like the Marlins when they traded Yelich, Stanton, Ozuna, Remutalo, etc?

Top 50 guys aren’t sure things and you’d probably not get the true impact prospects that would make it worth it. Because you can still only play nine guys and I don’t believe in pitching prospects.

I thought I read the marlins got pretty underwhelming returns for all those guys. I’m sure Stanton limiting the options wasn’t helpful either.

I know prospects aren’t a sure thing, but it becomes a numbers game where if you load up on high level talent odds are you are going to get some really good players. I’d go mostly position players, but not believing in pitching prospects is wild. They aren’t mythical characters. You gotta take some chances.